# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 80
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1581 "2009-07-10T16:20:36Z")
> [@](#): > > I was hoping pedescribe would post his night action at the last minute so we’d have more clues as to what happened during the night. . Oh well. Pedescribe, we will avenge thee! Speaking of which, I just noticed that I got a PM: > [@](#): > > Night 4 Happening > As you slept, your fears slipped away. Oddly enough, despite all the conflict, you felt a vague sense of protection during the Night. Which either means that **pede** thought I was Town, and that the Scum might target me, or that he thought I was Scum, and that I might be doing something nefarious on behalf of the Scum. Either way, it didn’t work. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1582 "2009-07-10T16:24:21Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Speaking of which, I just noticed that I got a PM: > Which either means that **pede** thought I was Town, and that the Scum might target me, or that he thought I was Scum, and that I might be doing something nefarious on behalf of the Scum. Either way, it didn’t work. Of all the people in the “likely confirmed innocent” category (you, story, pedescribe, and meeko) you’re the only one without a night power. if I’d been him I’d probably have taken my role block and gone scum hunting, but protecting you makes sense too. So, that’s both roleblocks accounted for. Meeko, what’s up? You’re worrying me a bit here. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1583 "2009-07-10T16:24:53Z")
My best guess is that **Meeko** only ever had one single bullet, and didn’t say so because he wanted Scum to target him with something. **Meeko** , if this is the case, you might as well just say so: With **pede** gone, the Scum are going to block you toNight anyway, and then block-and-kill you toMorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1584 "2009-07-10T16:32:53Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > My best guess is that **Meeko** only ever had one single bullet, and didn’t say so because he wanted Scum to target him with something. **Meeko** , if this is the case, you might as well just say so: With **pede** gone, the Scum are going to block you toNight anyway, and then block-and-kill you toMorrow. **Vote Chronos** ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1585 "2009-07-10T16:33:45Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Speaking of which, I just noticed that I got a PM: > Which either means that **pede** thought I was Town, and that the Scum might target me, or that he thought I was Scum, and that I might be doing something nefarious on behalf of the Scum. Either way, it didn’t work. Perhaps most importantly, if pede blocktected you, it means you are neither the role blocker nor the player who executed the Scum kill last Night. Doesn’t eliminate the possibility that you were inactive Scum, but you definitely belong on the back burner for now. Anyway, I’m not sure what to make of what happened last Night. I am incredibly frustrated to see that **Meeko** (evidently) didn’t attempt a kill. At this point, our power roles are worthless. ToNight the Scum will kill one of us and block the other; the following Night they will block and kill whichever of us lives through toNight. The only exception is if we get exceedingly lucky and not only lynch Scum toDay, but specifically lynch the role-blocker. We will have to find Scum the old-fashioned way, and our record so far has not been good in that area. Seven unknowns remain: of those I am unlikely to vote for **Chronos** toDay. So: six little Indians, Scum hiding somewhere. Where? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1586 "2009-07-10T16:34:28Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Meeko, WTF? Why did you waste this Night? > > I was blocked again. > [@Chronos](#): > > My best guess is that **Meeko** only ever had one single bullet, and didn’t say so because he wanted Scum to target him with something. **Meeko** , if this is the case, you might as well just say so: With **pede** gone, the Scum are going to block you toNight anyway, and then block-and-kill you toMorrow. Something no one else knows, however, is that you have a gun….and it has one bullet in it. Powers: 1. You are a Gun Owner. 2. You get one Nighttime Kill total, for the entire game. You may PM me when you decide to use it. You are a Survivor, this game’s version of Town. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1587 "2009-07-10T16:34:46Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > **Vote Chronos** Meeko, will you just freaking explain yourself already? What happened? Were you blocktected by **pedescribe?** ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1588 "2009-07-10T16:35:30Z")
**Unvote Chronos** And I would vote myself if I could. Scum, I will be reading your board. I bet the list I posted did me in, Did it ? ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1589 "2009-07-10T16:36:45Z")
Meeko, why did you vote for Chronos? What “did you in?” You’re not dead and we aren’t going to lynch you toDay. Just be annoyed that you lied and move on. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1590 "2009-07-10T16:37:27Z")
Ok. Ok. Let’s reassess now. I am willing to bet that we have other gun owners. If so, Now would be a good time to use it, You think? ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1591 "2009-07-10T16:38:34Z")
Personally, my theory is “Meeko is deranged”, story. I can totally buy the “I had one bullet, and I used it on night one” thing from him, though. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1592 "2009-07-10T16:38:42Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Just be annoyed that you lied and move on. What lie was that, again? And hey, as far as I know, you should blame Pede. Stupid gamble that HE took. Nevermind mine. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1593 "2009-07-10T16:40:40Z")
With pede gone, I can FINALLY hopefully get a damn answer to a question: **Could Pede have protected himself?** ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1594 "2009-07-10T16:41:40Z")
And, frankly, by my Math, we are no worse off today, than we were yesterday. I obviously can’t guess what Scum are doing. \*\* We could be a LOT worse off today. \*\* ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1595 "2009-07-10T16:43:06Z")
Indeed, let’s reassess, because now we know the basic structure of the game: TOWN: Detective - 4 pts Lie Dectector - 3.5 pts (generous) Paranoid Doctor - 2.5 pts (being generous) One-Shot Vig - 1.5 pts TOTAL PTS from power roles = 11.5 Four Scum means nine vanillas, for a total of 20.5 pts. Four Scum, including three ordinary Scum (3 x 4.5 pts = 13.5 pts) and one roleblocker (6 pts) comes out to 19.5 points. Replace one of those vanillas with a Godfather (7 pts) and the Scum go up to 22 pts. Either arrangement is possible. Five Scum is right now as it would be grossly imbalanced, and three Scum would be grossly imbalanced the other way. Best conclusion: We have three Scum remaining, one roleblocker included, with possibly one Godfather but it doesn’t matter at this point either way. Our chances of getting one toDay are slightly less than 50%, if we pursue only the unknowns. Where shall we start? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1596 "2009-07-10T16:43:07Z")
FTR: I recieved no PM last night at all. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1597 "2009-07-10T16:46:17Z")
What the _fuck_? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1598 "2009-07-10T16:47:48Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > My best guess is that **Meeko** only ever had one single bullet, and didn’t say so because he wanted Scum to target him with something. **Meeko** , if this is the case, you might as well just say so: With **pede** gone, the Scum are going to block you toNight anyway, and then block-and-kill you toMorrow. This was the gambit exactly. The Vig taking a bullet for town. The One shot Vig, quasi vanilla, becomming the magnet for all of scum. Story would have gotten his read, Peded would have protected himself. Scum would have shot a Vanilla. The town would be no worse off, thanks to the Scum lynch the day before. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1599 "2009-07-10T16:48:57Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > What the _fuck_? Jimmy, I never shot you. I couldn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2009, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1600 "2009-07-10T16:55:01Z")
Hrm. Chronos… I am willing to bet that Pede believes you to be town. He probably thought I would have shot you. So, he stupidly protected you, over himself. [Still waiting on my answer gang.] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=79) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=81)