# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 93
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1841 "2009-07-17T01:54:28Z")
John, a communicator, took dirt nap? Booo! It is day now, right? On to Voting? Only logical option, from my assumptions.-- Until I look at additional posts: \*\* Voting Jimmy Chitwood\*\* As from Chronos’ plan, with rivals that link as scum pairs. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1842 "2009-07-17T01:59:38Z")
OK, then, let’s get this party started. **Vote Jimmy Chitwood** If my vote analysis is correct (and I think it is), then I logically ought to vote for either **Jimmy** or **cardinal\_fang**. Of the two, I find **Jimmy** more suspicious, for two reasons: First, he’s one of the folks who did not say whether his name matched his alignment, a list which has served us well so far (both of the Scum we’ve caught so far were on that list). Second, my program associates **Jimmy** with **USCDiver** , and **cardinal\_fang** with **Telcontar** , and between **USCDiver** and **Telcontar** , I find the former more suspicious (he also did not confirm alignment match, for one thing). I will be looking more closely at all four of these toDay, and I may end up switching my views (and probably will, if it comes down to **cardinal\_fang** versus anyone other than **Jimmy** ). But for now, that’s enough for me to get the voting started. By the way, **Jimmy** , how do you get Google to tell you whether a joke’s funny? I’m not familiar with that feature. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1843 "2009-07-17T02:02:26Z")
By the way, **Mahaloth** , we didn’t happen to find any last message **storyteller** wrote in his own blood as he was dying, or anything like that, did we? Probably not, but it’s a hope. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1844 "2009-07-17T02:15:24Z")
I mean, no argument to be had here, right? We’re voting on a _system_. Nothing to defend against. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1845 "2009-07-17T02:15:40Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > By the way, **Mahaloth** , we didn’t happen to find any last message **storyteller** wrote in his own blood as he was dying, or anything like that, did we? > > Probably not, but it’s a hope. Night Kill halts abillity. Right? Don’t think “words in blood” can occur in this Mafia. Good try. I am with you on this thought though. Chronos, Any additional thoughts on Jimmy? Did Jimmy Slip in this Mafia, on any days not today? I still think Jimmy had a slip way back in days. Around this Mafia start, say on day two? You know, Jimmy had slip and said similar to “Raccoon, ask that on your scum board.” No? [This is hard task. UGH.] ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1846 "2009-07-17T02:22:49Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > I mean, no argument to be had here, right? > We’re voting on a _system_. Nothing to defend against. Well, you could start with “but I’m town!” Assuming you are, of course, that would be a good thing to say. More importantly, voting on a system is a downright silly idea. Even though I trust **chronos** ’s intentions, i do not think that one can solve mafia like a sudoku. Yesterday I made a fairly extensive case against **diver**. I still believe that case. **Storyteller** , now a known innocent, seconded that case on his way into the grave. And **diver** has a fairly frantic desire to cast suspicion on \*\*cardinal \*\*and myself regardless of inconvenient things like facts. That’s good enough for me. **vote diver** Look, if it comes down to a **jimmy/cardinal** vote then i’m happy to do a coin flip like everyone else (actually it makes more sense to just vote **jimmy** , more possibilities for him given that I know I’m town). But I really think we should think long and hard about what story said on the way out about trusting algorithms. If neither **jimmy** nor **cardinal** is town, then the mafia just need to endorse this system and they’ve got the game all sewn up. Shouldn’t we make them work a bit harder? ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1847 "2009-07-17T02:32:13Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If my vote analysis is correct (and I think it is), then I logically ought to vote for either **Jimmy** or **cardinal\_fang**. Of the two, I find **Jimmy** more suspicious, for two reasons: First, he’s one of the folks who did not say whether his name matched his alignment, a list which has served us well so far (both of the Scum we’ve caught so far were on that list). Second, my program associates **Jimmy** with **USCDiver** , and **cardinal\_fang** with **Telcontar** , and between **USCDiver** and **Telcontar** , I find the former more suspicious (he also did not confirm alignment match, for one thing). Hang on. This is just flat-out terrible. **Meeko** voting for me, well, no shit, what are you going to do, he made up his mind a month ago. But you’re telling me that you’re deciding who to lynch based on thinking some _other_ player is more suspicious than _yet another player_? This plan is going to stand or fall based on how everybody else respond to this, so I’m not necessarily that interested in hashing it out one on one with you, but I hope you’re prepared for a scenario where you lynch me based on the above “logic,” and then the rest of the town realizes it was ridiculous when I come up just who I say I am, instead of following your roadmap they turn around and lynch you. I’d be a little more ready to tell you about how town I am, **Telcontar** , if somebody would provide me with a scum motivation for anything I’ve done up to this point. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1848 "2009-07-17T02:39:04Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > Look, if it comes down to a **jimmy/cardinal** vote then i’m happy to do a coin flip like everyone else (actually it makes more sense to just vote **jimmy** , more possibilities for him given that I know I’m town). But I really think we should think long and hard about what story said on the way out about trusting algorithms. If neither **jimmy** nor **cardinal** is town, then the mafia just need to endorse this system and they’ve got the game all sewn up. Shouldn’t we make them work a bit harder? Even this logic buys into the algorithm implicitly. “More possibilities” isn’t really the case. Not all scenarios on **Chronos** ’ board are created equal - this is not a situation where randomness comes into play. So it isn’t the case that there are more possibilities. There’s one possibility that is reality, and then there’s every other scenario. It doesn’t matter that there’s only one way X could be scum along with Z or whatever – that’s the way people lose money at casinos. Anyway, guys, I realize I’m not the best poster child for the anti-computer system generation, since I’ve been spending most of my time getting angry and lynching **Zeriel**. But if I get cooked up and shot out of town in a little vanilla town-colored box, I hope town gets wise. I don’t even mind being the next one on the block if I think it’s reasonably going to lead to a town win. The problem is, with this false dilemma here - **Jimmy** or **fang** - I can’t even contribute meaningfully to the lynch, and it’s not all that likely that the rest of the day is going to tell us much about the rest of the players. I don’t think **fang’s** the scummiest remaining player. I’m not sure whether that’s going to matter. The way we’re headed, if we lynch me and **fang** isn’t scum, we just lost. Do we feel lucky? ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1849 "2009-07-17T02:44:47Z")
Also, my grammar is crap and I can’t edit, and that makes me sad. Also also, **Telcontar** , I think you meant if neither of us is SCUM, not if neither of us is TOWN, n’est-ce pas? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1850 "2009-07-17T02:47:20Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > By the way, **Mahaloth** , we didn’t happen to find any last message **storyteller** wrote in his own blood as he was dying, or anything like that, did we? **The Survivors carefully examined Storyteller/John Locke’s body and examined the area around him, but they found nothing of interest.** ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1851 "2009-07-17T02:53:33Z")
Before we blindly follow the program’s output, **Chronos** , would you please rerun your program with two changes? 1. Allow a range of 3 to 5 Scum 2. Don’t assume you’re automatically Town ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1852 "2009-07-17T03:09:49Z")
Quoth **Jimmy Chitwood** : > [@](#): > > I mean, no argument to be had here, right? > We’re voting on a system. Nothing to defend against. Suppose I had instead argued that you (and **cardinal\_fang** ) looked suspicious because neither of the known Scum ever ended the Day with their vote on you? Would that be a reasonable argument? Or suppose that I pointed out that a relatively large proportion of the votes you cast were for players who turned out to be Town? Either of those would be fairly normal reasons for suspicion in a Mafia game. All my method is doing is taking all of the data at once, and evaluating everyone at once, based on arguments like that. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1853 "2009-07-17T03:16:18Z")
If you had done that, I would have said, well, no town player ended with his vote on me either. So it wouldn’t have been that profitable. In addition to which, to your second point: two of my votes thus far have been to lynch scum. We’ve lynched two scum. And let’s be honest, your system is being told by you to assume certain things, one of which is that you yourself are in the clear, and you are reporting those numbers back to us as justifications for a vote. So when you say I’ve voted for “players who turned out to be town,” in this hypothetical where you’re presenting a case instead of a spreadsheet, my response is that I’ve voted for the only scum we’ve found, and I’ve voted for players who haven’t “turned out” to be anything just yet. The important thing is that you didn’t argue those things. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1854 "2009-07-17T03:18:29Z")
> [@](#): > > Before we blindly follow the program’s output, Chronos, would you please rerun your program with two changes? > > 1. Allow a range of 3 to 5 Scum > 2. Don’t assume you’re automatically Town With 3 Scum, the program doesn’t say anything we don’t already know: The last Scum could be any of the remaining unconfirmed (including myself, if you consider me unconfirmed). With 4 Scum and not assuming me Town, we get seven possible scenarios: Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Total number of possibilities: 7 Telcontar 2 AllWalker 0 Chronos 2 Imaginary Fiend 0 Meeko 0 USCDiver 1 pedescribe 0 Scuba Ben 3 Zeriel 7 ShadowFacts 7 Jimmy Chitwood 3 storyteller 0 cardinal\_fang 3 With five Scum and not assuming me Town, we also have 7 scenarios: Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal\_fang Total number of possibilities: 7 Telcontar 4 AllWalker 0 Chronos 3 Imaginary Fiend 0 Meeko 0 USCDiver 1 pedescribe 0 Scuba Ben 4 Zeriel 7 ShadowFacts 7 Jimmy Chitwood 3 storyteller 0 cardinal\_fang 6 ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1855 "2009-07-17T03:22:38Z")
Oh, and further, I’d point out, if you had argued those things, that your system, by identifying me and **cardinal fang** as being suspicious for those reasons, and simultaneously saying that only one of us can be scum, helpfully demonstrates its own shortcomings. Because if the strongest case it can make is a 50/50 shot at blowing what is probably our last mislynch, well, that’s not that exciting. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the idea of running the analysis in the first place is worthless. I just think it’s a big step, in a game of imperfect information vs. perfect information, to publicly hand over the keys to your information-processing to the results of that analysis. If I’m scum, I _know_ whether or not your system is right. You don’t know whether your system is right unless _you’re_ scum. To anybody who isn’t scum, that ought to be terrifying. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1856 "2009-07-17T03:23:38Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > The way we’re headed, if we lynch me and **fang** isn’t scum, we just lost. Do we feel lucky? Magic Bag Claim ?! ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1857 "2009-07-17T03:24:32Z")
Very interesting… that puts **USCDiver** as the least likely Scum – and is pretty inconclusive at 4 Scum. I conclude that the program can support a case, but is not primary evidence. ZZzzzzz ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1858 "2009-07-17T03:27:13Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Magic Bag Claim ?! Er. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1859 "2009-07-17T03:29:32Z")
> [@Scuba\_Ben](#): > > Very interesting… that puts **USCDiver** as the least likely Scum – and is pretty inconclusive at 4 Scum. > > I conclude that the program can support a case, but is not primary evidence. > > ZZzzzzz Again, I’d just like to make note of the fact that it doesn’t actually put anybody as the least likely. It says how many different ways each person can be scum (in its estimation) but each individual permutation is just as likely as any other. The fact that X could be scum with Y or with Z, whereas Y could only be scum with X, doesn’t say anything about the likelihood that either one actually is scum. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1860 "2009-07-17T03:32:27Z")
Jimmy, you post on fang, that fang is not scum. **I ask now for additional info on this.** This is, I think, magic bag claim from you. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=92) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=94)