# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 94
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1861 "2009-07-17T03:38:04Z")
Dude, just use the letter E. It’s hard enough as it is. I didn’t say that **fang** is not scum. I said if. I didn’t make any kind of claim at all. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1862 "2009-07-17T03:41:53Z")
I was just asking. How is my not using fifth alpha symbol hard for you, anyway? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1863 "2009-07-17T03:44:13Z")
NETA : but sure, ok, I think I have proven to myself that I could do the E post restriction, if I had to. – And its not holding me back, either. But, Also, just as seriously Jimmy: Can you elaborate on how My post restriction makes it harder for you? ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1864 "2009-07-17T03:44:38Z")
Well, I was happy to clear it up. You know how it’s hard to read stuff when it’s posted in a weird font, or all caps, or something? How it’s just kind of jarring because the presentation isn’t what you’re used to? It’s like that. Takes a bit of effort to get through because it’s of course strained. And, you know, what’s the benefit to anyone, right? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1865 "2009-07-17T04:32:02Z")
> [@](#): > > Oh, and further, I’d point out, if you had argued those things, that your system, by identifying me and cardinal fang as being suspicious for those reasons, and simultaneously saying that only one of us can be scum, helpfully demonstrates its own shortcomings. Because if the strongest case it can make is a 50/50 shot at blowing what is probably our last mislynch, well, that’s not that exciting. The results do not say that only one of you can be scum. They say that **at least one of you** is. It’s still quite possible for both of you to be. > [@](#): > > Again, I’d just like to make note of the fact that it doesn’t actually put anybody as the least likely. It says how many different ways each person can be scum (in its estimation) but each individual permutation is just as likely as any other. The fact that X could be scum with Y or with Z, whereas Y could only be scum with X, doesn’t say anything about the likelihood that either one actually is scum. If, in fact, each permutation is as likely as any other, then the person who shows up in the most permutations is, in fact, most likely to be Scum. Further than that, even, if all permutations are truly equally likely, then I can say that you and **cardinal** each have an exactly 60% chance of being Scum, **Scuba** has a 40% chance, and **USCDiver** and **Telcontar** each have a 20% chance. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1866 "2009-07-17T05:03:41Z")
Chronos: For the sake of all of us, especially now at the (apparent) end game : **What _exactly_ is your program doing?** ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1867 "2009-07-17T05:22:37Z")
First, it makes a list of scenarios, with every combination of people being Town or Scum. Since I started this program when there were 12 living players in the game, this is a list of 2^12 = 4096 different scenarios. Then, for each of those scenarios, it counts up how many Scum there are, how many times Town have voted for Scum, how many times Town have voted, total, and how many times Scum have voted for Scum. For the Town votes, all votes that were made at any time during the Day are counted, but for the Scum votes, only those votes that were in place at the end of the Day are counted. Then, out of the list of 4096 scenarios, it throws out any scenarios that don’t work. There are three different ways that a scenario might not work: It might have the wrong number of Scum, it might conflict with a piece of information that we know, or it might have the Scum voting for Scum a greater proportion of the time than Town are. Whatever is left out of the initial list of 4096 scenarios is what’s output. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1868 "2009-07-17T12:15:48Z")
So, It’s basically a simulation of all the ways a game could be played, less the verbiage. All possible combinations that can happen, have happened for you in the simulation. Just one question. When we ALL voted for Shadow, we… ALL voted for shadow. Wouldn’t this need to be taken into account? Wouldnt Shadow’s vote be harder for the program to compute? ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1869 "2009-07-17T13:54:53Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > Also, my grammar is crap and I can’t edit, and that makes me sad. > > Also also, **Telcontar** , I think you meant if neither of us is SCUM, not if neither of us is TOWN, n’est-ce pas? Well, if you’re both scum then following the “lynch both of you” plan would also wrap up the game for scum, just in a way they’d find objectionable. :-P. Yes, i meant if neither of you are scum then all the scum would have to do is go along. Chronos’s program has never been validated as being useful. Looking back, it didn’t show Zeriel or shadow as especially suspicious pre their lynches, or our now confirmed town as especially not suspicious. I’m sticking with my vote. Jimmy, pick your favorite scum and make a case for them. It seems like some people are open to going off the system. Okay, I’m off to work! Later folks, ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1870 "2009-07-17T14:34:12Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The results do not say that only one of you can be scum. They say that **at least one of you** is. It’s still quite possible for both of you to be. Ah. Fair enough; missed that possibility. > [@](#): > > If, in fact, each permutation is as likely as any other, then the person who shows up in the most permutations is, in fact, most likely to be Scum. Further than that, even, if all permutations are truly equally likely, then I can say that you and **cardinal** each have an exactly 60% chance of being Scum, **Scuba** has a 40% chance, and **USCDiver** and **Telcontar** each have a 20% chance. Again, this is not true. You’re smarter than I am, so you must know that. So why are you following through on it? But OK, I spoke hastily. Each permutation is as roughly likely as any other in the sense that each of them could be the case in this game, _all things being equal_. It does not follow from that that I have a 60% chance of being scum, because the roles aren’t just completely randomly distributed, and all things are not equal. We didn’t get here just by chance. I’m not going to just keep saying it, because at some point arguing about this becomes counter-productive, but this game is not about a sample of a population. It isn’t the case that 60% of **Jimmy Chitwood** s turn out to be scum, and so on. The reason that I am not scum is not because this is an exception case, but because you are using the data beyond its useful boundaries. What is the case is that you told a program that you and **Meeko** are not scum, and asked it to tell you what are all the possible outcomes, given that information. To pretend that the program’s response to that somehow represents an accurate survey of who is most likely to be scum is an incredibly anti-town use of the data. Which sucks, because I really do believe that you were breadcrumbed, so I don’t think it’s a good investment at the moment to suspect your motivations. But anyway, yeah, I haven’t voted yet. **storyteller** was especially suspicious of **Diver** , and now **Telcontar** has voted for him as well. **Scuba** and **fang** were suspicious of him yesterday, too. I’m not sure I see what the main thrust of the argument is there. **storyteller** ’s stated reasons all had to do with metagame stuff that, while I understand it, I’m not in a position to be persuaded by it one way or the other. I’m more interested in **story** ’s suggestion that the action of yesterday indicated a possibility that both candidates were scum; that bears looking into but I don’t know exactly what about the action suggested it. Continuing to work off of \*\*story’\*\*s list, next up is **Chronos**. I choose for the moment to pass on this one except to note that as I mentioned above, I believe he was breadcrumbed, which means he’s either a godfather or town. I have a lot of misgivings about it, but for the moment at least I want to keep looking elsewhere because I’m not _quite_ there yet. That brings us to **cardinal\_fang**. This is where it gets fun because it would behoove me to make a case against him, right? Two votes against me which are premised on having to choose between myself and **fang** ; the most town thing I can do is work my ass off to keep a townie from being lynched. On the other hand, I have pretty much no read on **fang** at all. Almost everyone has done something that made me suspicious at one point or another, but I can’t remember such an instance with him. Which I guess is itself a potential reason to be suspicious, but I’m not so inclined. I was hoping I’d work myself into a vote by this point, but I haven’t. More later. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1871 "2009-07-17T14:57:35Z")
I think reassessing **Chronos** would be prudent. We’ve been trusting a breadcrumb that may or may not be accurate. In the extended probabilities, as we’re discussing the likelihood that **Jimmy** and **Telcontar** are probably not both Scum, we should also look at the recomputed 4 Scum scenario, that **Jimmy** and **Chronos** also are probably not both Scum. Which says nothing whatsoever about either pair being both Town. So examining **Jimmy** closely has a strong chance of popping out one Scum from among those three. Out of completeness, there is one possibility in the 4 Scum scenario where all three of those players are Town – but it requires me to be Scum, so I prefer not to evaluate that scenario. For what it’s worth, **storyteller** strongly suspected (just before Dawn) that I am Town. So. On the given probabilities, I see these logical cases for finding Scum: NOT (Jimmy AND Telcontar) NOT (Jimmy AND Chronos) (USCDiver OR cardinal\_fang) -\> NOT Chronos NOT (USCDiver AND Telcontar) Completeness: NOT (Telcontar AND Scuba Ben) NOT (USCDiver AND Scuba Ben) (USCDiver OR Scuba Ben) -\> NOT Telcontar (equal to NOT (USCDiver AND Telcontar)) NOT (Jimmy OR Telcontar OR Chronos) -\> Scuba Ben AND cardinal\_fang (erk!) Now that I’ve written this out, the implied nexi are Jimmy and Telcontar. If they’re both Town, a lot of these logical cases collapse very very fast. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1872 "2009-07-17T16:02:46Z")
Quoth **Scuba** : > [@](#): > > Now that I’ve written this out, the implied nexi are Jimmy and Telcontar. If they’re both Town, a lot of these logical cases collapse very very fast. If I’m understanding your use of the word “nexus” correctly, from a point of view where your alignment is unknown, you’re the most important nexus. If we could know your alignment without having to kill anyone to get it, it looks to me like the rest would fall neatly into place. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1873 "2009-07-17T16:15:39Z")
Quite right, **Chronos** , but me evaluating myself is not meaningful. So there’s three unknowns strongly worth evaluating (and the others are always worth evaluating), and I’ll certainly look at the two where it’s useful for me to do so. In the interests of discussion, what good way is there to determine with certainty my alignment – or yours, or anybody’s in this game – before Dusk? (Implied: Short of killing somebody off.) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1874 "2009-07-17T17:00:29Z")
> [@](#): > > In the interests of discussion, what good way is there to determine with certainty my alignment – or yours, or anybody’s in this game – before Dusk? (Implied: Short of killing somebody off.) If anyone knew an answer to that question, it wouldn’t be much of a game, now would it? ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1875 "2009-07-17T19:52:00Z")
**Can we shorten the days? There just isn’t a lot to say at this and the long deadline doesn’t seem to result in procrastination.** Jimmy, in addition to what story said about diver, here is my perspective from early yesterday. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11331918&postcount=1633](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11331918&postcount=1633) [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11332012&postcount=1637](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11332012&postcount=1637) ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1876 "2009-07-17T20:00:44Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > **Can we shorten the days? There just isn’t a lot to say at this and the long deadline doesn’t seem to result in procrastination.** \*\* I’ll get back to you guys on this, but don’t worry. I will not have a Day end on a weekend, so this Day will go through to the next “work week”. If I plan any change, I’ll announce it in advance.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1877 "2009-07-17T23:23:11Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If anyone knew an answer to that question, it wouldn’t be much of a game, now would it? Well… we DO have some roles out there we have not seen, that we could more or less confirm, if only because no one else but the holder could claim. [You know, The Scummy McScummalots still with us.] ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2009, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1878 "2009-07-17T23:28:15Z")
Private Message: Lost Role PM 06-11-2009, 10:04 AM Mahaloth Mahaloth is online now Charter Member Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: 地球 Posts: 6,860 Lost Role PM You are James “Sawyer” Ford(usually called Sawyer). There was a terrible air plane crash. You don’t remember a lot about the actual crash, but when you awoke, you were lost on an island. You have recently begun to socialize with the other survivors, but you don’t really know them all that well. You have a very strong feeling that some of the people with you are…evil, and may not have even been on the plane. You have no idea who they are, but you do know that you will not feel safe until they are dead. Something no one else knows, however, is that you have a gun….and it has one bullet in it. Powers: 1. You are a Gun Owner. 2. You get one Nighttime Kill total, for the entire game. You may PM me when you decide to use it. You are a Survivor, this game’s version of Town. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2009, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1879 "2009-07-18T00:29:55Z")
FMI & FYI Live List Telcontar, Chronos, Meeko, USCDiver, Scuba Ben, Jimmy Chitwood, & cardinal\_fang Votes: Jimmy: Chronos and Meeko Diver: Telcontar Slacker List USCDiver, Scuba Ben, Jimmy Chitwood, & cardinal\_fang ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2009, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1880 "2009-07-18T00:42:03Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > Jimmy, in addition to what story said about diver, here is my perspective from early yesterday. > [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11331918&postcount=1633](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11331918&postcount=1633) > [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11332012&postcount=1637](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11332012&postcount=1637) So your entire case against me is essentially \*\*Meeko’s \*\*case and is basically predicated upon a presumption from the earliest days of Day 1? In fact, I know the assumption that Scum were on the \*\*Meeko \*\*bandwagon is false, but you won’t know that until I’m dead. HOWEVER, consider, if you will, the parallel case of \*\*Meeko \*\*in Crimson Glyph. The scum were MORE than happy to let him live. No offense, **Meeko** , but your play style is very confusing and often leads town on tangents that give the Scum room to play. In fact, I’d say that as your play in this game has improved, we’ve suddenly become more adept at picking out the scummy players. Why would scum even think about voting for **Meeko** so early on Day 1 when the vote is undoubtedly going to swing to someone else before the Day is done? They WANT him alive! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=93) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=95)