# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 96
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2009, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1901 "2009-07-18T14:52:40Z")
My apologies for the role I played in the turn toward ugliness to everyone reading the game, and everyone playing the game. And modding the game for that matter. (In-game - I don’t have a vote yet). ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2009, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1902 "2009-07-18T14:59:23Z")
Mahaloth and I have been talking in PM. I am not one to say things that I don’t believe. At least, when it comes to OOG statements. So. Yes, I flew off here. Yes, the game is better with out such comments. Yes, Given the increased heat I have gotten for it, I do regret being here now. All I know, is that in terms of when I blew up here, it came much later in this game, than where I did in Crimson. This will not come as quick as you guys want, it is not coming as quick as I would like either. However, improvement is coming. The next game will be better. But, this is all well and good for the future. For the present: I am coming across as a dick. That does not help the game. So, for where we all are now, right now, I feel I must claim my fault in it. I was wrong to do what I have done in this game. Yet, often, words end up failing me. I can admit fault here for letting the game get to me. I can state that I don’t want it in my game play. I honestly do not know what part of “Me” has an issue here. In hindsight, as always, it’s easy to see what has happened, not how it has happened. (What lead up to it.) Yes, I Was wrong here. I admit that. I don’t feel I can be truthful in offering much else.\*\* I know you all are looking for a particular statement here.\*\* I believe I can not be truthful in making that statement. **I will be in future Mafia games.** Hopefully you understand that I want to improve my game, and hopefully you can see my potential in the rough. I know of only one way to refine and improve my play. Practice. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2009, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1903 "2009-07-19T14:58:50Z")
Really? 24 hours of nothing? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2009, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1904 "2009-07-19T15:19:48Z")
Eh, the weekends have been slow all game. I’m planning on doing a WoW or two later today, though. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2009, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1905 "2009-07-19T20:09:34Z")
Can we get some more votes moving? Day ends tuesday this time. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1906 "2009-07-20T02:08:05Z")
I was in an autograph line today, and had a few hours to think over the game situation. (And I didn’t even get the autographs…) From my point of view, I know I’m Town – other people’s impressions may vary. I am inclined to believe that **USCDiver** is Town, and that **Meeko** is a Vig not a Strong-Man. Granted, these are based on probabilities as much as impressions – but I’m more trusting of probabilities than my impressions. For all Meeko’s aggravations, I think he’s a Townie. That leaves four players, of whom probably two are Scum. The probabilities suggest two groupings – and I warn again that these are probabilities: Group 1: **Jimmy Chitwood** and **cardinal\_fang** Group 2: **Telcontar** and **Chronos** I don’t have enough of a read on cardinal fang, and I’m still chock full of the presumed breadcrumb on Chronos. So I’m definitely not voting to lynch either of them. At the moment, there’s votes on Jimmy, Chronos, and USCDiver. I’m inclined to vote for Telcontar just to see who pops up to swing the vote one way or another. Should I not have a case formulated by tomorrow night, that’s where I’ll put my vote. In other words, I’m once again walking a fine line between voting to lynch someone based on a weak case, and being called out for doing so – and refusing to vote because all my reasons are weak, and being called out for doing so. I’ll start rereading from page 28, and see what I find. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1907 "2009-07-20T02:14:39Z")
As I’m reading through, I found this interesting stuff by ShadowFacts in #1362: > [@ShadowFacts](#): > > For the record, the reasons I think you (Ed by me: Storyteller) are scum are: > > 1. **AllWalker** was an Investigator and I think the odds are against us having two. (I mentioned this already in my first post of the Day, which is what got **Chronos** crawling all over my ass). > > 2. In order for you to be telling the truth, there must exist a scum roleblocker. If **pedescribe** is indeed a paranoid doctor, I think the odds are also against there being two roleblockers in this game. (I underlined the part that I added. It’s tricky providing a proper context for a quote without changing the content.) We now know that both of these statements were false – we had two Town investigation roles, and Town and Scum each had a roleblocker. I think it’ll be interesting to see who among our unknowns defended ShadowFacts and/or supported his statements in the course of that Day. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1908 "2009-07-20T02:21:53Z")
**vote Telconter** ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1909 "2009-07-20T02:38:09Z")
I had a wonderful post here, then I realized how useless it was. So instead I ask **USCDiver** : What reason do you have to vote for **Telcontar** , or not for anybody else? ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1910 "2009-07-20T02:46:22Z")
After SF in #1362, nobody defended him. He had a sudden Really Big Target on his chest, and people generally couldn’t vote to lynch him fast enough. Somewhat more interesting that Day was **Telcontar** ’s ongoing suspicion of **pedescribe** , as he noted in #1239 along with a comment on Chronos and SF going at it. I’ll keep working for a little while longer and backtrack. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1911 "2009-07-20T02:48:43Z")
Hi guys! Couple of comments on **Chronos** ’s program. I’ve built and run it and it looks fine per expected behaviour. I am concerned with the assumptions, however, as **storyteller** [points out](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11345718&postcount=1800): > [@storyteller0910](#): > > [snip] > > But even if Chronos is Town, there is the problem that 2) his assumption, while it sounds reasonable, is totally unfounded. Scum will vote for one another with glee, and Town will vote for other Town very frequently. The program is predicated on the assumption that Town will hunt Scum more effectively than Scum, but this is not true under the best of circumstances - the Scum know who one another are and are deliberately working to foul the record - and certainly not true when this underlying assumption was explicitly stated some days ago. > > [snip] > [@Chronos](#): > > [snip] > > To re-iterate my method: I am assuming that a greater proportion of votes cast by Town are for Scum than are votes cast by Scum, and throwing out all scenarios which are not consistent with that. I did not include any data from the day **ShadowFacts** was lynched, since a unanimous vote carries essentially no information. > > [snip] I pulled the votes out of the program (check my work, please), and wanted to see how the assumption fares for votes cast by known town for known anyone (town or scum). AFAICT, they are: Fiend[T] voted for ShadowFacts[S] pede[T] voted for Fiend[T] Fiend[T] voted for ShadowFacts[S] pede[T] voted for Fiend[T] Tom Scud[T] voted Fiend[T] Nanook[T] voted Fiend[T] Ichini[T] voted storyteller[T] The votes in green adhere to the assumption above, the votes in red do not. In other words, for the votes we can be sure of, town voted for town 5/7 times (71%). In more other words, the data we can be sure of does not support **Chronos** ’s assumption. **Chronos** , these are the final _bus_ votes, and both the withdrawn and EOD _attack_ votes. The entire list is appended below, for reference (and double-checking). [spoiler]Telcontar voted for Fiend[T] Fiend[T] voted for ShadowFacts[S] Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver Meeko voted for cardinal\_fang USCDiver voted for Meeko USCDiver voted for Chronos pede[T] voted for Fiend[T] Zeriel[S] voted for AllWalker[T] ShadowFacts[S] voted for Scuba\_Ben Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede[T] Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos cardinal\_fang voted for Fiend[T] cardinal\_fang voted for Chronos Telcontar voted for pede[T] AllWalker[T] voted for Scuba USCDiver voted for Chronos Zeriel[S] voted for Chronos Jimmy voted for Chronos cardinal\_fang voted for Chronos Telcontar voted Zeriel[S] Chronos voted Zeriel[S] Meeko voted Zeriel[S] USCDiver voted Zeriel[S] Scuba voted USCDiver Zeriel[S] voted USCDiver Jimmy voted Zeriel[S] storyteller[T] voted USCDiver cardinal\_fang voted USCDiver Telcontar voted for Fiend[T] Fiend[T] voted for ShadowFacts[S] Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver Meeko voted for cardinal\_fang USCDiver voted for Meeko USCDiver voted for Chronos pede[T] voted for Fiend[T] Zeriel[S] voted for AllWalker[T] ShadowFacts[S] voted for Scuba\_Ben Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede[T] Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos cardinal\_fang voted for Fiend[T] cardinal\_fang voted for Chronos Tom Scud[T] voted Fiend[T] Nanook[T] voted Fiend[T] Ichini[T] voted storyteller[T] Oredigger[T] voted Chronos Telcontar voted for pede[T] AllWalker[T] voted for Scuba USCDiver voted for Chronos Zeriel[S] voted for Chronos Jimmy voted for Chronos cardinal\_fang voted for Chronos Telcontar voted Zeriel[S] Chronos voted Zeriel[S] Meeko voted Zeriel[S] USCDiver voted Zeriel[S] Scuba voted USCDiver Zeriel[S] voted USCDiver Jimmy voted Zeriel[S] storyteller[T] voted USCDiver cardinal\_fang voted USCDiver Telcontar voted for pede[T] AllWalker[T] voted for Meeko Chronos voted for Fiend[T] Meeko voted for pede[T] Meeko voted for Jimmy Meeko voted for Fiend[T] USCDiver voted for AllWalker[T] pede[T] voted for Chronos pede[T] voted for Meeko Scuba voted for Shadowfacts[S] Scuba voted for Zeriel[S] Shadow[S] voted for Telcontar Jimmy voted for Fiend[T] storyteller[T] voted for Chronos cardinal\_fang voted for pede[T] Tom Scud[T] voted Meeko Oredigger[T] voted Meeko Telcontar voted for storyteller[T] Chronos voted for storyteller[T] Meeko voted for USCDiver Meeko voted for Scuba Scuba voted for Chronos Scuba voted for storyteller[T] Shadow[S] voted for Scuba Telcontar voted USCDiver Telcontar voted Scuba Chronos voted Jimmy Meeko voted Chronos Meeko voted USCDiver Zeriel[S] voted Jimmy[/spoiler] ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1912 "2009-07-20T02:56:00Z")
**AllWalker** ’s possible breadcrumb of Chronos was [1043](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11296740&postcount=1043). At that point in the game neither I nor my predecessor had played much, so AllWalker’s lack of a read on me is expected. Unfortunately, I still haven’t decided which of my suspect groups is more likely, or whether the groups are even valid. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1913 "2009-07-20T03:06:13Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > **[]The Survivors carefully examined Storyteller/John Locke’s body and examined the area around him, but they found nothing of interest.[]** Our Investigator’s night powers were useless on the night he was NK’d. Our Paranoid Doctor’s powers [were not](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11326772&postcount=1581). Is it “normal” for one role to work one way and another the other? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1914 "2009-07-20T03:20:21Z")
As presented, I think this is a good catch, Cardinal. Ask again, in bold and green for us, please? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1915 "2009-07-20T03:21:50Z")
Chronos : Do you mind debating Telcontar? Telcontar : Do you mind debating Chronos? I could, but then again, If I am on to something, you two can go Oh \_\_\_\_ together.:eek: ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1916 "2009-07-20T03:29:36Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Quoth **Jimmy Chitwood** :Suppose I had instead argued that you (and **cardinal\_fang** ) looked suspicious because neither of the known Scum ever ended the Day with their vote on you? Would that be a reasonable argument? Or suppose that I pointed out that a relatively large proportion of the votes you cast were for players who turned out to be Town? Either of those would be fairly normal reasons for suspicion in a Mafia game. All my method is doing is taking all of the data at once, and evaluating everyone at once, based on arguments like that. Are you referring to me in your second argument, **Chronos**? My voting record is: Imaginary Fiend (Town) Chronos (unknown) Chronos (unknown) ShadowFacts (Scum) USCDiver (unknown) You said: “_a relatively large proportion of the votes you cast were for players who turned out to be Town_…” (in reality, one of five). Actually, this list pretty much summarizes your argument, I think. I voted for you twice. Looking back, so did **Jimmy**. When you run a program assuming you are Town, **Jimmy** and I look bad. That is not surprising. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1917 "2009-07-20T03:35:53Z")
> [@](#): > > Our Investigator’s night powers were useless on the night he was NK’d. Our Paranoid Doctor’s powers were not. That’s typical for investigative-type roles, actually. Even if the moderator gives them the results of their investigation (that is to say, if their role works perfectly normally, the same way it does any other night), they can’t come back to say what it was. The “last investigation found by Town the next morning” thing is the exception, not the rule. I figured it couldn’t hurt to remind **Mahaloth** , in case he did intend it to work that way and forgot, but it was a long shot. **Meeko** , I don’t at this time have any particular suspicion of **Telcontar**. Is there some topic of debate you’d like to suggest? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1918 "2009-07-20T03:38:05Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > **Meeko** , I don’t at this time have any particular suspicion of **Telcontar**. Is there some topic of debate you’d like to suggest? Not particularly, no. Just, if you were to speak on Telcontar, I would listen. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1919 "2009-07-20T03:38:42Z")
**cardinal** , I realize that I’m not as confirmed as I’d like, owing to the possibility of me being a Godfather. If you want to suspect me, well there’s nothing much I can do about that. But at the very least, I know I’m Town, so I have no problem basing my own decisions on analysis based on that assumption. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1920 "2009-07-20T03:39:07Z")
NETA: That is, Chronos, I have two things I would like you to speak on, on Tel, but I don’t want to bias you from one, or towards the other. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=95) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=97)