# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 97
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1921 "2009-07-20T03:40:38Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > As presented, I think this is a good catch, Cardinal. > > Ask again, in bold and green for us, please? Sorry, just to clarify: you mean ask **Mahaloth** about the night powers when the player is NK’d? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1922 "2009-07-20T03:41:08Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > **cardinal** , I realize that I’m not as confirmed as I’d like, owing to the possibility of me being a Godfather. > > Snip Was this even open for debate yet? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1923 "2009-07-20T03:42:27Z")
> [@cardinal\_fang](#): > > Sorry, just to clarify: you mean ask **Mahaloth** about the night powers when the player is NK’d? Yes. I mean, if it is indeed a find here, I want you to take “credit” for it. I just feel, kinda off, asking for you, in bold and green. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1924 "2009-07-20T03:52:00Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > **cardinal** , I realize that I’m not as confirmed as I’d like, owing to the possibility of me being a Godfather. If you want to suspect me, well there’s nothing much I can do about that. But at the very least, I know I’m Town, so I have no problem basing my own decisions on analysis based on that assumption. That is fair enough. Consider my post as a cautionary statement for everyone else, then, as they make their own decisions. Also, FTR, you needn’t be a Godfather – you could be vanilla scum if one were inclined to make the argument. While I placed considerable weight in **AllWalker** ’s crumbs, [not everyone else has](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11345718&postcount=1800). ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1925 "2009-07-20T03:54:10Z")
**Was pedescribe able to effect a blocktect on the Night he was killed?** ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1926 "2009-07-20T03:58:31Z")
> [@Scuba\_Ben](#): > > [snip] > > I am inclined to believe that **USCDiver** is Town, and that **Meeko** is a Vig not a Strong-Man. Granted, these are based on probabilities as much as impressions – but I’m more trusting of probabilities than my impressions. For all Meeko’s aggravations, I think he’s a Townie. > > [snip] Can you elaborate on why you believe this is the case (underlining mine)? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1927 "2009-07-20T04:23:30Z")
> [@cardinal\_fang](#): > > **Was pedescribe able to effect a blocktect on the Night he was killed?** \*\*I’m not answering questions like this. I have a clear, common, obvious response to Night Action orders and I implement it. I’m not divulging specific situations. Period.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1928 "2009-07-20T04:42:32Z")
OK, Wall of Words on **cardinal\_fang**. I know this looks kind of weird coming right after a slew of posts by him, but I started it earlier today and took a break in the middle. I also know that **Scuba** already Walled him, but that was fairly early in the game, and a lot has happened since then. [spoiler][82:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11233547#post11233547) Checking in [117:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11234346#post11234346) Opposed to name-claim on basis that knowledge of show shouldn’t be necessary [125:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11234502#post11234502) Not sure if name matches alignment [note: later claimed Claire Littleton], reiterates that show knowledge shouldn’t matter [126:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11234512#post11234512) NETA reply to Mahaloth re: knowledge of show [217:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11239904#post11239904) Opposes idea of listing second, third, etc. place votes; says main risk of name-claim is outing “Jack”, suggests Jack might false-claim; asks Chronos for computer analysis of results of mass-claim [287:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11243667#post11243667) Acknowledges possibility of other power-roles; votes pede for bizarre behavior [294:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11243992#post11243992) Gameplay advice to Meeko, re making a detailed case instead of going for a “gotcha” [370:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11246461#post11246461) \ [463:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11250673#post11250673) Long post, worth reading: Agrees that in retrospect support or not of name claim might be indicative; unvotes pede; calls out Ichini and Fiend, votes Fiend based on Fiend’s assumption that names might be randomized (after Mahaloth said otherwise) [464:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11250734#post11250734) Defends against (implied) charge of lurking [552:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11254126#post11254126) Checking in after lynch, surprised at end-of-Day drama [668:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11266118#post11266118) Checking in after Morning [716:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11269724#post11269724) Wall of Words on me (Chronos); votes me based mostly on my opposition to name-claim [719:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11269976#post11269976) Back-and-forth with Meeko about what names Scum would likely claim [720:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11270030#post11270030) Reply to my defense against WoW. Claims to have seen power of name-claim before rule change [723:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11270073#post11270073) More back-and-forth with Meeko [724:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11270095#post11270095) More reply to me [789:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11273833#post11273833) Yet more reply to me [792:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11273860#post11273860) Asks pedescribe for clarification of his case against him (in retrospect, the case wasn’t very good: The other three people pede bet were scum have all since been confirmed Town) [793:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11273867#post11273867) Speculates that the Scum might have redirected Vig’s kill [939:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11280898#post11280898) Fluff [943:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11281028#post11281028) No comment on storyteller’s idea of stating whether we’re on main characters list, but points out Mahaloth’s using characters from all seasons [944:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11281053#post11281053) Clarifies that in 793, was assuming a Scum redirector [966:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11285048#post11285048) Checking in at start of Day 3 [1031:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11295207#post11295207) Checking in again [1036:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11296303#post11296303) \ [1044:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11296749#post11296749) Defends against charge that he’s voted for both runners-up [1047:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11296790#post11296790) Responds to Scuba’s wall [1048:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11296837#post11296837) Votes me for my case against storyteller [1049:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11296852#post11296852) Wonders where Imaginary Fiend is [1123:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11297868#post11297868) Still wondering where Fiend is [1156:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11299636#post11299636) Comments on Fiend’s lack of vote [1157:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11299675#post11299675) Defends against charge of lurking again [1406:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11317109#post11317109) Claims Claire Littleton, vanilla [1424:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11317656#post11317656) Trusts me, based on AllWalker’s crumb; votes ShadowFacts based on pede’s block, Shadow’s game-design-based defense [1458:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11318908#post11318908) Reiterates that he trusts me [1482:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11319289#post11319289) Fluff [1539:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11321609#post11321609) Comments about low postcount [1540:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11321625#post11321625) Fluff [1541:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11321638#post11321638) Fluff [1563:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11326237#post11326237) Still trusts AllWalker’s breadcrumb of me [1652:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11333141#post11333141) Defends again against charge of lurking [1653:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11333155#post11333155) Posts role PM, no surprises in it [1655:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11333179#post11333179) Corrects USCDiver on topic of role PMs given to Scum [1656:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11333255#post11333255) Asks Scuba for clarification on why he considers me confirmed [1657:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11333290#post11333290) No content I can make out [1658:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11333299#post11333299) Repeats question to Mahaloth (earlier asked by me) whether there’s recruiting in this game [1662:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11333443#post11333443) Comments on USCDiver’s differing role PM; doesn’t seem to find it suspicious [1680:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11336754#post11336754) Points out slight differences between vanilla PMs [1681:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11336770#post11336770) Points out that at least one genuine Town (Nikki Fernandez, **Imaginary Fiend** ) was a minor character [1683:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11336821#post11336821) Elaborates that this means that we can’t assume minor characters are Scum [1686:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11336921#post11336921) Considers possibility of Toughguy Meeko, runs game-balance numbers [1687:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11336923#post11336923) Explains to Meeko why he mentioned about minor characters [1688:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11337100#post11337100) Suspects Scuba, but ameliorated by Shadow’s attacks on him; votes USCDiver based on his grasping at straws, smudging over PMs [1689:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11337108#post11337108) Asks me why I didn’t call out USCDiver, why I find his PM suspicious [1713:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11340390#post11340390) Questions Scuba’s assumptions about how blocking a Scum-kill works; acknowledges possibility raised by storyteller that I might be a godfather [1714:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11340443#post11340443) Asks storyteller for confirmation of Sawyer’s canonical alignment [1715:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11340503#post11340503) Response to me about Diver’s PM, possibility of me as godfather [1719:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11340656#post11340656) Asks about what happens when a roleblocker is killed [1722:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11340724#post11340724) Asks Meeko to explain his vote for Zeriel [1725:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11340798#post11340798) Asks Jimmy’s opinion of me as godfather or Meeko as toughguy [1727:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11340808#post11340808) Fluff [1791:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11344873#post11344873) Fluff [1792:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11344879#post11344879) Fluff [1911:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11356695#post11356695) Runs my program, casts some doubt on assumption behind it [1913:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11356748#post11356748) Comments that one power role didn’t work when Night-killed, but another did [1916:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11356816#post11356816) Points out that my program’s results are largely due to assumption I’m Town [1921:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11356816#post11356816) More on disparity in night-killed power roles [1924:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11356899#post11356899) Reply to my defense of assuming I’m Town in my program [1925:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11356907#post11356907) Asks Mahaloth whether pede’s power worked on night he died [1926:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11356918#post11356918) Asks Scuba why he believes USCDiver is Town[/spoiler] Three observations, here: First, despite being accused of it many times, **cardinal** is definitely not lurking. It looks to me like he’s made at least some comment on every major topic of discussion. This is a point in his favor. Second, on the other hand, he doesn’t seem to have generated much new discussion, just following through on what others have brought up. If I’m not mistaken, for instance, he never cast the first vote for anyone, and I don’t think he came up with any new ideas on how to find Scum. This is a point against him, but is probably better explained by skill level, playstyle, or schedule than by scumminess. Third, doing a Wall of Words on Day 6 is a lot of work, even on a relatively low-posting player like **cardinal**. Meanwhile, about that supposed lurking… He’s been accused of it, explicitly or implicitly, at least four times: Once by [known Scum Shadowfacts](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11248431#post11248431), twice [by](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11297659#post11297659) [Scuba\_Ben](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11321354#post11321354), and once by [Telcontar](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11332015#post11332015) (and possibly in other places, too, that I didn’t find). A low post count would be a relatively safe thing for Scum to smudge on, so if **cardinal** turns out to be Town, I think we should look a little more closely at **Scuba** and others who accused him of lurking. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1929 "2009-07-20T04:44:06Z")
Here are my thoughts and vote. **cardinal\_fang** : Town. **Chronos** : As I mentioned before, I voted for **Chronos** twice (Days 2 and 3), for what I believe were good reasons at the time. Since then, we have claimed and found **AllWalker** ’s breadcrumbs, and I have placed enough faith in them to believe **Chronos** is Town, although **storyteller** , at least, is not as enamoured of them as I am. **Chronos** has led a campaign to target **Jimmy** and me, and I would desperately love to find a tell or a way to ignore **AllWalker** , but in my head, I can’t. The facts are there and I can’t ignore them. The Godfather possibility is still on my mind (and the math works), but for now I have to work too hard to convince myself that this is the case. **Jimmy Chitwood** : I do not have a strong read on Jimmy one way or the other; I will note that I was impressed by his actions Yesterday. He started the **Zeriel** bandwagon and did not waver from it, and we lynched the roleblocker. I suppose you could WIFOM that to death, but it was a close vote and his stood. He would not be at the top of my list, and I would only vote for him in defensive mode at this point (i.e. if it was me or him). **Meeko** : I thought long and hard about his role as a potential toughguy, going so far as to suspect him of [drawing **pede** ’s fire](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11318848&postcount=1450) to ensure a different scum could make the nightkill, and justifying the Night 1 kill as ensuring both **Nanook** and **Tom Scud** were killed before they could get the Scum-terrifying role claim going (before **Mahaloth** nuked it). Even though the math works, I would have to ignore his pre-role claim and **storyteller** ’s confirmation that “Sawyer” would not align with the Others (which is the strongest reason to confirm **Meeko** as Town). So, I will leave him as suspected Town. **Scuba\_Ben** : I still have my smudging and fishing suspicions bubbling on the back burner, but **storyteller** ’s notes have mitigated my view somewhat and leave him on the back burner. **Telcontar** : I need to research **Telcontar** more thoroughly. He has not played overly Scummily, but something about him pings me; much of it is WIFOM-ey, but I will dig a little deeper tomorrow.I do not have anything solid enough to cast a vote for him at this time, however. **USCDiver** : I continue to hold the same suspicions as Yesterday, and **storyteller** ’s comments (and vote) have reinforced those. I’ll place my vote on him now to make sure I get it registered, and see if a better case is made in the next day or so. **vote USCDiver** ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1930 "2009-07-20T04:51:01Z")
\*\*Vote Count: USCDiver(3): Telcontar, Meeko, CardinalFang Jimmy(1): Chronos Telcontar(1): USCDiver \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1931 "2009-07-20T05:26:37Z")
**Perhaps I shouldn’t point this out, but Meeko is currently [voting for me](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11351947&postcount=1895), not USCDiver** ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1932 "2009-07-20T05:42:33Z")
> [@Scuba\_Ben](#): > > The probabilities suggest two groupings – and I warn again that these are probabilities: > Group 1: **Jimmy Chitwood** and **cardinal\_fang** > Group 2: **Telcontar** and **Chronos** > > I don’t have enough of a read on cardinal fang, and I’m still chock full of the presumed breadcrumb on Chronos. So I’m definitely not voting to lynch either of them. > > At the moment, there’s votes on Jimmy, Chronos, and USCDiver. I’m inclined to vote for Telcontar just to see who pops up to swing the vote one way or another. Should I not have a case formulated by tomorrow night, that’s where I’ll put my vote. > > In other words, I’m once again walking a fine line between voting to lynch someone based on a weak case, and being called out for doing so – and refusing to vote because all my reasons are weak, and being called out for doing so. > > I’ll start rereading from page 28, and see what I find. I’m not really clear where those groupings come from. Can you elaborate? Is this based on Chronos’s program in some way? Also not sure why diver is dropping off your list. This is not the time to be timid. > [@USCDiver](#): > > **vote Telconter** It’s true that I was asking for people to cast votes, but I was sort of assuming those votes would come with reasons attached. Do you have a case, or are you just OMGUSing? > [@Scuba\_Ben](#): > > After SF in #1362, nobody defended him. He had a sudden Really Big Target on his chest, and people generally couldn’t vote to lynch him fast enough. > > Somewhat more interesting that Day was **Telcontar** ’s ongoing suspicion of **pedescribe** , as he noted in #1239 along with a comment on Chronos and SF going at it. I’ll keep working for a little while longer and backtrack. At that point i’m not sure i was suspicious of pedescribe as much as I was royally pissed at him. He makes this bizarre half claim role blocker and then vanishes for a day or so. town goes wild trying to interpret his 3 or 4 sentences of posting and Story has to come along and post epics explaining what pedescribe actually meant, what his role really was, what his full name was etc. Town is forced to blunder into yet another last minute lynch. yes, we were, by random chance, right for once. But pedescribe’s playstyle was ridiculously anti-town and i was hoping that keeping my vote on him would encourage him to come back and at least explain himself. I think you can get a whiff of my mood here: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11318679&postcount=1439](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11318679&postcount=1439) I’m just glad that shadow had his little meltdown, otherwise we might have lynched someone else altogether. I’m still not sure what I make of Jimmy at the end of that day: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11318750&postcount=1443](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11318750&postcount=1443) [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11318858&postcount=1451](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11318858&postcount=1451) At that point he’s taking a stand against an incredible landslide of shadow voters to cast a vote for the person with an uncontested doctor claim. I’m a little concerned that, scuba, that you didn’t note this as it could be seen as a late defense of shadow. > [@Meeko](#): > > Chronos : Do you mind debating Telcontar? > > Telcontar : Do you mind debating Chronos? > > I could, but then again, If I am on to something, you two can go Oh \_\_\_\_ together.:eek: Debating what? the utility of the program? > [@Meeko](#): > > Not particularly, no. Just, if you were to speak on Telcontar, I would listen. 😃 No idea what you mean here. BTW, do you mean to still be voting for chronos? From my standpoint, the suspects are diver, scuba, cardinal, and Jimmy. I’m happy with my vote on diver. Cardinal hasn’t been especially scummy, btu i don’t have a great read on him so i’m not trusting him either. If Jimmy were mafia I think he’d be having more fun, so i’m inclined to trust him more than the others (at the moment he sounds like he’d almost welcome a lynch). scuba has often struck me as suspicious, but there is his little throw down with shadow to consider. Meeko and chronos i’m inclined to trust primarily because I assume they’re going to be NKed soon. Yes, we could get all convoluted about their claims but, more likely than not, the scum are going to relieve us of the question soon enough. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1933 "2009-07-20T12:24:16Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > SNIP > > No idea what you mean here. BTW, do you mean to still be voting for chronos? > SNIP > > Meeko and chronos i’m inclined to trust primarily because I assume they’re going to be NKed soon. Yes, we could get all convoluted about their claims but, more likely than not, the scum are going to relieve us of the question soon enough. 1. It was just a free shot to get something in. It has not escaped me, that both of you passed the option. 2. Yes, and in that order too, I am willing to bet. Then again, I’ve been prepared (if not ready) for my death in this game since night one. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1934 "2009-07-20T12:30:46Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Perhaps I shouldn’t point this out, but Meeko is currently [voting for me](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11351947&postcount=1895), not USCDiver I was just about to do it here Chronos. Chronos, I do value your play. It has never been personal between us. FWIW, “Meeko” says you are a good player. If the Double Vowel headless horsemen ever ride [Meeko, Peeker, Seeker, ROOsh] I for my part will spare you. Very seriously, you are a good player, even if scum. Just, I can’t be moved from the vote right now. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1935 "2009-07-20T13:16:43Z")
My probability pairs and low suspicion of **USCDiver** both come straight out of the results from **Chronos** ’s program. I haven’t been able to run the program myself or analyze the code, because I’m stuck with C# which doesn’t like the #define var=val directive. FOS Microsoft Of course, 99% accuracy is still incorrect once in a while. As I said earlier, the program’s results aren’t proof on their own. **cardinal\_fang** , I’m definitely more aware of your game play Yesterday and Today. My earlier concerns of lurking are Overcome By Events. I do note that **Chronos** didn’t actually come to any Town / Scum conclusions about **cardinal\_fang**. **Telcontar** , I don’t remember seeing Jimmy’s #1451 last night – I must have gone right by it. I blame it on rushing through my review of the Day and I never reached page 30; I kept checking farther and farther back. So two Days ago, with 30 minutes left until Dusk, Jimmy voted to lynch pedescribe even as the bandwagon against ShadowFacts was in full swing. Then 14 minutes later, he hopped on the bandwagon in #1462, calling his vote on pede a “protest vote.” In completeness, at D minus 53 minutes, he had unvoted ShadowFacts in #1443. Going farther back, Jimmy’s [#1435](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11318614&postcount=1435) looks interesting. He has two lists there, which I’m quoting here: > [@](#): > > As far as I’m concerned, pedescribe, Shadow, story, and Telcontar all look bad here. > > If pedescribe and Shadow are both Town, and I know I’m town, and I believe AllWalker cleared Chronos, and Meeko is a town vigilante, that’s five. If Story is cleared, too, that leaves Telcontar, fang, Ben, USCDiver, Zeriel, I believe. We now know that pede and story were Town, and Shadow and Zeriel were Scum. In both of Jimmy’s lists, he smudges **Telcontar** (or worse). So at this point, I suspect as best I can that Jimmy and Telcontar are not both Town. (Insert consumer advisory here.) At the moment, I’m leaning more towards voting to lynch Jimmy than Telcontar based both on this analysis and Telcontar’s explanation of his votes on pedescribe. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1936 "2009-07-20T14:00:50Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > **Perhaps I shouldn’t point this out, but Meeko is currently [voting for me](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11351947&postcount=1895), not USCDiver** **My bad.** \*\*Vote Count USCDiver(2): Telcontar, CardinalFant Jimmy(1): Chronos Telcontar(1): USCDiver Chronos(1): Meeko \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1937 "2009-07-20T14:07:05Z")
What the hey. I’ll get on the record. **Vote Jimmy Chitwood** as per my evaluation two posts back. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1938 "2009-07-20T15:00:54Z")
I don’t especially trust Chronos’s program, but lets take it seriously for a moment. 1.) I don’t think chronos is scum. That eliminates these two: Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang 2.) Lets say we eliminate Jimmy and he’s town. Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang That would leave one scenario in which i was mafia with cardinal fang, and one in which scuba was mafia with cardinal fang. Taking the program seriously would lead us to all vote for cardinal. Assuming the program is correct, cardinal must be mafia. Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang Then we head into 3 player mafia and diver gets to chose between scuba and myself. Not great odds for town given that I know i’m town and diver’s got a grudge. 3.) Alternatively, lets say jimmy is mafia. That would leave us with: Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang Telcontar Chronos Meeko USCDiver Scuba Ben Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang So we’d have one remaining free mistake and we’d know the other mafia was either scuba, diver, or cardinal. Even shooting blindly that’s a 2/3rds chance. I still trust more to traditional mafia hunting than this program, but it’s something to think about. I suppose the other thing to consider is that, if there were 5 mafia and we are currently at lynch or lose, then cardinal would almost have to be mafia, going by the program. I think 5 starting mafia is implausible, however. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1939 "2009-07-20T15:31:52Z")
Or to look at this another way, namely, that I’m not going to vote to lynch myself. I self-eliminate the 3 potential cases where I would be Scum. (I got my math wrong until I realized that the cases eliminated in 2 are the cases considered in 3.) With the assumption that Meeko is Town, which we’re all assuming, that leaves: Telcontar - 2 Chronos - 1 USCDiver - 1 Jimmy - 3 cardinal\_fang - 2 If we accept Chronos as Town, then Telcontar would be Scum in one case. My conclusion: I’m comfortable leaving my vote on Jimmy until I reassess the thread tonight. For completenes: The most likely Scum in #1854, at 3 each, were me, Jimmy, and fang; there was one case for two of those three to be Scum. I know this doesn’t look too good for me. And extended analysis, with the intent of finding the most possible information from a lynch. Lynch me, find me to be Scum, that gives a strong chance that Telcontar and USCDiver are Town. Lynch me, find me to be Town, anybody could be Scum. Lynch Jimmy, find him to be Scum, that gives a strong chance that Telcontar and Chronos are Town. Lynch Jimmy, find him to be Town, that gives a strong chance that USCDiver is Town. \*\*\*Either way, we get a strong chance of somebody being Town. Lynch cardinal\_fang, find him to be Scum, that gives a strong chance that Chronos and USCDiver are Town. Lynch cardinal\_fang, find him to be Town, anybody could be Scum. Telcontar as Scum narrows the probable Scum pool to Chronos and cardinal\_fang. Telcontar as Town doesn’t give useful probabilities. USCDiver as Scum puts a big fat target on Jimmy. USCDiver as Town doesn’t give useful probabilities. Chronos as Scum narrows the probable Scum pull to Telcontar and me. Chronos as Town suggests that Telcontar is Town, but not strongly. THEREFORE, I conclude that based on Chronos’s program, we get the most useful information by lynching Jimmy. AND by continued post analysis, because the program only counts votes and is not the entirety of the situation. I also conclude that lynching Jimmy is the only case that provides substantial probabilities in the event of a mislynch (that is, Jimmy is town). I’m also aware that no lynch of me, Jimmy, or cardinal\_fang is likely to clear either of the other two of us. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2009, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1940 "2009-07-20T16:21:25Z")
I still think Chronos’s program should come with a big warning sign saying “Not proven effective.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=96) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=98)