# Lots of good movies coming out this year. What movie do you think will be number one? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [March 15, 2012, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815 "2012-03-15T01:27:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![RandMcnally](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b782af/32.png) [@RandMcnally](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandMcnally)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/21 "2012-03-15T15:43:47Z")
I actually care about how much movies make because the more money a movie makes the more likely I’m going to get more movies of that same nature. “Scott Pilgrim vs the World” didn’t make that much, so unfortunately, there won’t be a film of that type. “Kickass” wasn’t a runaway box office success, so unfortunately it’s taken forever for them to decide if they’re going to do a sequel. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/22 "2012-03-15T17:25:50Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > I truly do not mean to threadshit, but I would like to ask you (or anyone contributing to this thread) why you care about how much money a movie makes. > > I began to wonder about this a few years ago when I noticed that the news on Mondays would talk about who won the weekend movie box office. I can certainly understand that the studios would release those figures to try to get free publicity for their movies. And if it’s your job to pick movies, or if you have money invested in a studio, then you’d certainly like to know about its success or failure. (The news always covers it as an entertainment story, not business, though.) I could just never figure out why I’m supposed to be interested. > > I’m wondering if any of these movies will be good, certainly, but that’s not the same as making a lot of money. Say what you will, ticket sales is the closest thing to an objective standard you’re going to find on movie quality. Pretty much every other standard is individual opinion and not really subject to discussion. And as RandMcnally wrote, box office is what gives direction to the movie business. We wouldn’t be discussing the potential merits of _The Avengers_, _The Dark Knight Rises_, and _The Amazing Spider-Man_ if previous superhero movies hadn’t made so much money. ---
**Author:** ![salinqmind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3ec8ea/32.png) [@salinqmind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/salinqmind)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/23 "2012-03-15T17:36:53Z")
I never heard of American Reunion, I had to google it. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/24 "2012-03-15T19:01:42Z")
As someone who was a walk-on extra in _The Avengers_, I really, really hope it does well! ---
**Author:** ![ZipperJJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zipperjj/32/211_2.png) [@ZipperJJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZipperJJ)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/25 "2012-03-15T20:37:33Z")
Yeah I don’t know anything about any of these movies but I am pulling for _The Avengers_ to be a huge hit so more movies get made in Cleveland! ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/26 "2012-03-15T21:08:56Z")
> [@DMark](#): > > … If you had said “best movie” of the year, well - that could be the Oscar winner which indeed is very rarely (never?) the “number one” film in terms of box office… Actually, that’s not true. [Here’s](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=597805) something I wrote about a year ago on this very topic: > [@](#): > > 'Cause I like to build spreadsheets, I built one containing all B. Picture nominees since 1927 (476 of them, not counting this year) and researched every single film’s box office takes\*, ranking them both in the overall population of movies released that year and within the subset of B. Picture nominees for that year. > > The results are pretty conclusive: Box office success is a large, if not the largest, predicator of which movie will win Best Picture: > > … 27% of Best Picture winners (22 films out of 82 awards) were the #1 box office grossing movie of the year upon initial release (caveat: in three of these years (61, 46, 40) the B. Picture winner was overtaken by a Disney film with multiple releases in subsequent years. All my sources combined the release #s for Disney movies.) > > … 77% of BP winners were among their years top-10 grossing films. The first Best Picture winner not to be a top-10 film was 1948’s Hamlet, which ranked 17th in box office. The first BP winner not to be a top-20 film was 1987’s The Last Emperor (#25 for the year). > > … The average yearly box office rank of BP winners is 8.5. For losers it’s 19.27. > > … Within the categories themselves, if you rank the nominees by box office grosses, there is a 41% chance that the highest grossing movie will win the award. For the top-two highest grossing movies, there is a 71% chance of one of those winning. Only three movies ranked last among grosses won the award - oddly enough, all in the late 1940’s. > > You have a yearly award that is open to approximately 120-400 movies per year (depending upon # of films released) and the statistics show that 27% of those already awarded just happen to have gone to the most popular movie of their year, and 77% of the statues have gone to films that were one of the 10 most popular of their year. ---
**Author:** ![Death\_of\_Rats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a6a055/32.png) [@Death\_of\_Rats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Death_of_Rats)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/27 "2012-03-15T21:14:55Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > _The Hunger Games_ could be a contender. It’s got the YA demographic. This not only has the YA demographic, but the books have been taking up the _Twlight_ slack in the middle-aged woman catagory. Both of these are groups who will go see something a number of times in large groups with the fanaticism of a _Star Wars_ nerd. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/28 "2012-03-15T23:05:14Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Say what you will, ticket sales is the closest thing to an objective standard you’re going to find on movie quality. Pretty much every other standard is individual opinion and not really subject to discussion. Except that you get results [like this](http://www.boxofficeguru.com/010912.htm): > [@](#): > > THIS WEEKEND Audiences flocked to the multiplexes giving Hollywood a terrific start to 2012 thanks to the surprisingly powerful opening of the horror film The Devil Inside which more than doubled expectations to capture the box office crown in the first full weekend of the new year. … > > CinemaScore reported an embarrassing overall grade of F which will spell doom for the weeks ahead. [CinemaScore polls](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CinemaScore) real live audiences. There have only been 7 F’s in its history, two of them this year. The Devil Inside has currently grossed $53,000,000. Last year’s Oscar winner The Artist has clawed its way to $40,000,000. JohnT, Oscars went to box office successes in the past, but that hasn’t been true for a quarter century. There have been a couple of exceptions, but the all-time top-grosser Avatar lost to a film that grossed $17,000,000 in the U.S., a third of that after it won the Oscar. And Avatar had an awful, awful, awful script. What possible meaning can good have if you need to include Avatar in it? ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2012, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/29 "2012-03-16T01:17:34Z")
Two questions: How’d they end up bringing out two versions of the “Snow White” story ([Mirror Mirror](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirror_Mirror_(film)), comedy fantasy, and [Snow White and the Huntsman](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirror_Mirror_(film)), fantasy drama) less than three months apart? Where are the promised 2012 Hugh Laurie movies [The Oranges](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Oranges_(film)) and [Mr. Pip](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1485749/), goddamnit?? :mad: ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2012, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/30 "2012-03-16T01:33:14Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Two questions: > > How’d they end up bringing out two versions of the “Snow White” story ([Mirror Mirror](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirror_Mirror_(film)), comedy fantasy, and [Snow White and the Huntsman](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirror_Mirror_(film)), fantasy drama) less than three months apart? > : [Dualing](http://blip.tv/nostalgia-chick/dreamworks-vs-disney-dualing-4574559) ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2012, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/31 "2012-03-16T02:28:03Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > [Dualing](http://blip.tv/nostalgia-chick/dreamworks-vs-disney-dualing-4574559) Did Janeane Garofalo get a facelift? She looks so much younger. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2012, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/32 "2012-03-16T02:57:08Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Except that you get results [like this](http://www.boxofficeguru.com/010912.htm): > > [CinemaScore polls](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CinemaScore) real live audiences. There have only been 7 F’s in its history, two of them this year. The Devil Inside has currently grossed $53,000,000. Last year’s Oscar winner The Artist has clawed its way to $40,000,000. > > And Avatar had an awful, awful, awful script. What possible meaning can good have if you need to include Avatar in it? I said it was an objective system. I never said it was a perfect system. But show me a better one. The Oscars? _Avatar_ was nominated as one of the best movies of the year when it was released. It got a BAFTA nomination as best picture also. It won the New York Film Critics Award for Best Picture of the year. And speaking of critics, Roger Ebert gave it four out of four stars and called it “extraordinary”. Lots of other major critics concurred. Me personally? I thought it was pretty weak. I agree with you that the script was bad. ---
**Author:** ![poker\_in\_the\_rear](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/dc4da7/32.png) [@poker\_in\_the\_rear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/poker_in_the_rear)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2012, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/33 "2012-03-16T17:48:00Z")
> [@DMark](#): > > Speaking of which, didn’t there used to be a game on this board where people invested a certain amount of fictional money in upcoming films to see who could predict which films would be most profitable? I think the rules were to use only box office from opening weekend, but I could swear this used to be a tradition years ago on the SDMB. You might be thinking of this:[Hollywood Stock Exchange](http://www.hsx.com) ---
**Author:** ![jasongunman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b4bc9f/32.png) [@jasongunman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasongunman)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2012, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/34 "2012-09-21T13:06:11Z")
I have seen lots of movie that came this year. In between all the best movie that i have seen is The Avengers. Its really nice movie full of Action. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2012, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/35 "2012-09-21T19:12:08Z")
Okay, as long as this thread’s been revived, here’s some results. The movies that have hit $100,000,000 so far this year: 1. Marvel’s The Avengers - $1,510,617,210 (Production Budget: $220 million) 2. The Dark Knight Rises - $1,058,676,748 (Production Budget: $250 million) 3. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $837,290,851 (Production Budget: $95 million) 4. The Amazing Spider-Man - $748,605,830 (Production Budget: $230 million) 5. The Hunger Games - $685,080,950 (Production Budget: $78 million) Called it. 6. MIB 3 - $624,026,776 (Production Budget: $225 million) 7. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted - $620,657,204 (Production Budget: $145 million) 8. Brave - $499,858,247 (Production Budget: $185 million) 9. Ted - $407,670,123 (Production Budget: $50 million) 10. Snow White and the Huntsman - $396,397,203 (Production Budget: $170 million) 11. Prometheus - $390,990,697 (Production Budget: $130 million) 12. The Intouchables - $364,642,905 (Production Budget: ?) French movie. It was a big hit in Europe but hardly registered in the United States. 13. Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax - $337,111,107 (Production Budget: $70 million) 14. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $325,860,290 (Production Budget: $79 million) 15. Battleship - $302,836,260 (Production Budget: $209 million) 16. Wrath of the Titans - $301,970,083 (Production Budget: $150 million) 17. John Carter - $282,778,100 (Production Budget: $250 million) 18. The Expendables 2 - $267,304,140 (Production Budget: $100 million) 19. Dark Shadows - $238,727,149 (Production Budget: $150 million) 20. American Reunion - $234,736,898 (Production Budget: $50 million) 21. Safe House - $205,201,380 (Production Budget: $85 million) 22. 21 Jump Street - $201,585,328 (Production Budget: $42 million) 23. The Bourne Legacy - $199,675,565 (Production Budget: $125 million) 24. The Vow - $196,114,570 (Production Budget: $30 million) 25. The Dictator - $176,750,222 (Production Budget: $65 million) 26. Total Recall - $172,217,010 (Production Budget: $125 million) 27. Mirror Mirror - $162,835,167 (Production Budget: $85 million) 28. Underworld Awakening - $160,112,671 (Production Budget: $70 million) 29. This Means War - $156,491,279 (Production Budget: $65 million) 30. Magic Mike - $154,683,104 (Production Budget: $7 million) 31. The Secret World of Arrietty - $145,570,827 (Production Budget: ?) 32. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance - $132,563,930 (Production Budget: $57 million) 33. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - $131,671,286 (Production Budget: $10 million) 34. The Woman in Black - $127,730,736 (Production Budget: ?) 35. Chronicle - $126,636,097 (Production Budget: $12 million) 36. Step Up Revolution - $122,219,724 (Production Budget: $33 million) 37. The Pirates! Band of Misfits - $120,002,528 (Production Budget: $55 million) 38. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - $101,874,013 (Production Budget: $69 million) 39. The Devil Inside - $101,386,096 (Production Budget: $1 million) 40. Project X - $100,931,865 (Production Budget: ?) I used worldwide grosses and included production budgets so you could get an idea of how profitable the movies were. All figures form [boxofficemojo.com](http://boxofficemojo.com) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2012, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/36 "2012-09-21T21:04:28Z")
Okay, I’ve really got too much time on my hands. Here’s the breakdown of “profitability” - grosses divided by budget. The Devil Inside - $101.39 Magic Mike - $22.10 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - $13.17 Chronicle - $10.55 Ice Age: Continental Drift - $8.81 The Hunger Games - $8.78 Ted - $8.15 Marvel’s The Avengers - $6.87 The Vow - $6.54 Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax - $4.82 21 Jump Street - $4.80 American Reunion - $4.69 Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted - $4.28 The Dark Knight Rises - $4.23 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $4.12 Step Up Revolution - $3.70 The Amazing Spider-Man - $3.25 Prometheus - $3.01 MIB 3 - $2.77 The Dictator - $2.72 Brave - $2.70 The Expendables 2 - $2.67 Safe House - $2.41 This Means War - $2.41 Snow White and the Huntsman - $2.33 Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance - $2.33 Underworld Awakening - $2.29 The Pirates! Band of Misfits - $2.18 Wrath of the Titans - $2.01 Mirror Mirror - $1.92 The Bourne Legacy - $1.60 Dark Shadows - $1.59 Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - $1.48 Battleship - $1.45 Total Recall - $1.38 John Carter - $1.13 ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2012, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/37 "2012-09-22T14:52:41Z")
Isn’t there the last _Twilight_-thingy movie coming out in mid-November? I think that probably has to make the shortlist of contenders. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2012, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/38 "2012-09-22T15:42:52Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Isn’t there the last _Twilight_-thingy movie coming out in mid-November? I think that probably has to make the shortlist of contenders. Yes, we still have all the big holiday movies that haven’t been released yet: Breaking Dawn 2, The Hobbit, Wreck-It Ralph, Skyfall, Taken 2, Frankenweenie. ---
**Author:** ![Lust4Life](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecc23a/32.png) [@Lust4Life](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lust4Life)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2012, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815/39 "2012-09-22T17:51:27Z")
> [@Glory](#): > > I’m looking forward to Prometheus. Same here, plus the Hobbit. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lots-of-good-movies-coming-out-this-year-what-movie-do-you-think-will-be-number-one/615815.md?page=1)