# Lottery-Number-Picking Question... **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 29, 2013, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608 "2013-05-29T05:32:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2013, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/21 "2013-05-29T16:12:55Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Regarding the “buy enough tickets so you’re guaranteed a win” strategy, didn’t that happen in some state lottery in the 90’s? I remember seeing some news story about it where some buy spent time figuring out which lotteries had the lowest number of options and then used a team to buy all the tickets. I seem to recall something about this too. The guy was even allowed to set up his own printing facility to churn out all the tickets. ---
**Author:** ![Hail\_Ants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Hail\_Ants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hail_Ants)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2013, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/22 "2013-05-30T01:07:40Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > This is the reason casinos in Vegas installed the “last 20 numbers” displays at their roulette wheels. People are easy to influence and bet larger amounts when they think a color is “due.” Here in NY State we have Quick Draw (basically keno every five minutes) available in every bar. They too display the list of the ten numbers that are ‘Hot’ and the ten that are ‘Not’. I love messing with friends who just don’t get the math by first saying, _“Oh yeah, 12 and 36 are hot so you should play 'em!” and then immediately saying, “No wait, 12 and 36 are cold, that means they’re due so you should play 'em!!”_ 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Robson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gary_robson/32/3448_2.png) [@Gary\_Robson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Robson)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2013, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/23 "2013-05-30T03:24:17Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > This has been discussed before, but because those \*\*\*are \*\*\*the odds of the Powerball lottery (and since one ticket costs $2) ignoring taxes etc. once the jackpot reaches more than ~$350 million (like it did a week or so ago, $600+ million!) it would be an \*almost \*sure thing profit-wise if you played every possible combination (i.e. it would cost about $350 million dollars to buy all the combinations, so as long as the jackpot is higher you’d make a profit). So you’d pay out $350 million now, and if you win you’d get back $350M over 20 years (NPV about $218M at 5%). AND you’d pay taxes on the income. Even if you win, you lose! ---
**Author:** ![The\_Conqueror\_Worm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@The\_Conqueror\_Worm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Conqueror_Worm)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2013, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/24 "2013-05-30T04:28:41Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Regarding the “buy enough tickets so you’re guaranteed a win” strategy, didn’t that happen in some state lottery in the 90’s? I remember seeing some news story about it where some buy spent time figuring out which lotteries had the lowest number of options and then used a team to buy all the tickets. I recall when this happened, but am not certain of exact details. As best as I can remember, he organized with a number of other investors so they had enough funds to buy out a state lottery. Then the logistics came into play as they had to wait until the jackpot was large enough that they would see a return on their money. They were allowed to use pre-printed slips (I know there must be a name for them, but it escapes me.) in order to buy the various tickets with all the different number combinations. I believe this loophole has been closed by most (all?) lotteries to prevent someone from doing similar. The group then had to go to enough different vendors so that they could purchase all their tickets in time. Here is where I forget the details. They actually were unable to buy all the combinations in time for the drawing, but I can’t recall the the percentage. However, they did have the winning combination in the group of tickets they managed to buy in addition to all the other winning combinations. Unfortunately, I’m don’t recall how much of a return the group got on their investment. I rarely buy lottery tickets and would never have my numbers that I play all the time. With my luck they would be certain to appear the week I didn’t go to the liquor store. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2013, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/25 "2013-05-30T04:36:46Z")
[It was Virginia in 1992.](http://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/25/us/group-invests-5-million-to-hedge-bets-in-lottery.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm) They bought 5 million of the 7 million possible numbers, and won $27 million. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2013, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/26 "2013-05-30T16:15:16Z")
Of course, not managing to buy up all of the tickets but still winning anyway is rather a best-case outcome for them, since it saved them the cost of the tickets they didn’t get a chance to buy. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2013, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/27 "2013-05-30T16:46:45Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > This has been discussed before, but because those \*\*\*are \*\*\*the odds of the Powerball lottery (and since one ticket costs $2) ignoring taxes etc. once the jackpot reaches more than ~$350 million (like it did a week or so ago, $600+ million!) it would be an \*almost \*sure thing profit-wise if you played every possible combination (i.e. it would cost about $350 million dollars to buy all the combinations, so as long as the jackpot is higher you’d make a profit). Almost, because if you’re not the only winner (and with huge jackpots the odds increase that you won’t be) you’ll have to split it with one or more others, meaning that you’d ultimately lose money. The other factor is that even with an army of volunteers there is literally not enough time between drawings to purchase 175,711,536 tickets. You mean (in the graped part) because more people play when the jackpot is bigger, I hope? ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2013, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/28 "2013-05-30T16:55:28Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > Anytime lottery odds and ‘systems’ come up I always just say, “Easy, just play the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6”! Then when people incredulously say, “That’s crazy, what are the odds of _those numbers coming up?!", I respond with, "Exactly, precisely, 100% the same as_\* any other six numbers coming up!\*\*\*” Lottery numbers are not a dartboard, their ordinal relationship has zero effect on their selection potential. Problem is, that’s apparently a fairly common combination to play (relatively speaking), so you’ll have to split your pot with a lot more people. I know my dad played that combo back in the day, and I remember reading somewhere that it was very common. [Here’s one article I was able to dig out from the UK](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2301360/The-Lotto-numbers-avoid-Going-1-2-3-4-5-6-bring-tiny-windfall.html). > [@](#): > > But going for 1,2,3,4,5,6 will only bring you a tiny windfall – even if all the numbers come up. That is because about 10,000 people choose that option each week, according to Dr Simon Cox of Southampton University. > Tonight’s Lotto jackpot is an estimated £3.8million, meaning each person would win just £380 if those numbers were drawn. ---
**Author:** ![Hail\_Ants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Hail\_Ants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hail_Ants)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2013, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/29 "2013-05-31T02:39:51Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > You mean (in the graped part) because more people play when the jackpot is bigger, I hope? Yes. > [@pulykamell](#): > > Problem is, that’s apparently a fairly common combination to play (relatively speaking), so you’ll have to split your pot with a lot more people. I know my dad played that combo back in the day, and I remember reading somewhere that it was very common. > > [Here’s one article I was able to dig out from the UK](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2301360/The-Lotto-numbers-avoid-Going-1-2-3-4-5-6-bring-tiny-windfall.html). Wow, I’m astounded to find out that so many people play 1 thru 6. Even though I know the odds are the same I never do (I always use quick-pick, no such thing as lucky numbers). But I also only play occasionally (when the jackpots get huge). ---
**Author:** ![Noel\_Prosequi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/b19c9b/32.png) [@Noel\_Prosequi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noel_Prosequi)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2013, 6:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/30 "2013-05-31T06:56:28Z")
Not to sound smug, but I suppose people pick the 1-6 combo because they think they are the only ones mathematically sophisticated enough to recognise that that combination has exactly the same chance as any other, and so figure it is extremely unlikely that anyone else will pick it because it psychologically looks wildly improbable. But in truth, there are lots more people than they think thinking exactly the same thing. If I were a lottery kind of guy, I would have thought it was a good idea too, and I would have been wrong. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2013, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/31 "2013-05-31T07:05:39Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > Anytime lottery odds and ‘systems’ come up I always just say, “Easy, just play the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6”! . Which is a bad idea because if the numbers 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 were drawn, you would have to share the prize with probably a couple thousands smartasses who played them. ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2013, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/32 "2013-05-31T10:29:07Z")
Whenever there is a rollover I see long queues at the lottery ticket till in the supermarket. It amazes me that people will invest more on tickets for a 20 million jackpot than for a 10 million one. To win either would be life changing and surely, with so many more tickets being sold, the chances of having to share are correspondingly greater. Many years ago I had a Saturday job in a betting shop. One day a punter won several thousand on an accumulator and I suggested to the manager that he would be upset at losing so much. “Not at all,” he replied. “I will make sure that the local paper gets the story - just watch the queues next week.” ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2013, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/33 "2013-05-31T12:22:34Z")
> [@Colophon](#): > > Supposedly about 10,000 people every week play 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in the UK lottery, so if they did come up there would be a lot of disappointed winners only receiving a couple of hundred pounds! > > Daily Mail article here: [The Lotto numbers to avoid: Going for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 will only bring you a tiny windfall | Daily Mail Online](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2301360/The-Lotto-numbers-avoid-Going-1-2-3-4-5-6-bring-tiny-windfall.html) Sorry, I just now saw I completely skipped over the second part of your post where you give exactly the info I give. > [@](#): > > Wow, I’m astounded to find out that so many people play 1 thru 6. Even though I know the odds are the same I never do (I always use quick-pick, no such thing as lucky numbers). But I also only play occasionally (when the jackpots get huge). Lots of superstitious people out there or people like my dad who have faulty logic: “Nobody will play 1,2,3,4,5,6, so I’ll play it.” My guess is that, being pattern-loving creatures that we are, that any six numbers with an apparent pattern to them (either numerical or a visual pattern on the boxes you fill in when you purchase your ticket) will have an unusual amount of multiple plays. ---
**Author:** ![Hail\_Ants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Hail\_Ants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hail_Ants)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2013, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/34 "2013-05-31T21:34:12Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Lots of superstitious people out there or people like my dad who have faulty logic: “Nobody will play 1,2,3,4,5,6, so I’ll play it.” My guess is that, being pattern-loving creatures that we are, that any six numbers with an apparent pattern to them (either numerical or a visual pattern on the boxes you fill in when you purchase your ticket) will have an unusual amount of multiple plays. I find this so extra silly. The idea of planning ahead to not only win, but to try and make sure you’re the only winner! It’s like raising _almost\_infinity_ to _almost\_infinity_² ! I also wonder if these people really don’t understand that how many people play also has absolutely no effect on your overall odds of winning (except for the splitting of the jackpot thing). I wonder if some are tin-foil-hat-esque types who think it’s all semi-rigged and they’re ‘beating’ the system by playing numbers they think the ‘people’ who really ‘run’ the lottery figure don’t ever get played. Speaking of jackpots, did that last $600 million Florida Powerball lone-ticket winner ever come forward? ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2013, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/35 "2013-05-31T22:06:25Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > I find this so extra silly. The idea of planning ahead to not only win, but to try and make sure you’re the only winner! It’s like raising _almost\_infinity_ to _almost\_infinity_² ! He’s my dad, and I love 'im, but, to be fair, it’s only one box he’d play out of 10. The rest were normal, “random-looking” bits of numbers. I’ve always kind of in the back of my head wanted the numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6 to come up and see what happens with the thousands of people who play those numbers. To think you won a few million only to realize after the fact you’ve won, at most, a couple thousand… ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2013, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/36 "2013-05-31T23:27:36Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > I find this so extra silly. The idea of planning ahead to not only win, but to try and make sure you’re the only winner! It’s like raising _almost\_infinity_ to _almost\_infinity_² ! > > I also wonder if these people really don’t understand that how many people play also has absolutely no effect on your overall odds of winning (except for the splitting of the jackpot thing). I wonder if some are tin-foil-hat-esque types who think it’s all semi-rigged and they’re ‘beating’ the system by playing numbers they think the ‘people’ who really ‘run’ the lottery figure don’t ever get played. > > Speaking of jackpots, did that last $600 million Florida Powerball lone-ticket winner ever come forward? Which part is extra silly? Trying to play numbers you think will be a unique pick? ---
**Author:** ![ZenBeam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/3ab097/32.png) [@ZenBeam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZenBeam)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2013, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/37 "2013-06-01T00:21:51Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > I find this so extra silly. The idea of planning ahead to not only win, but to try and make sure you’re the only winner! It’s like raising _almost\_infinity_ to _almost\_infinity_² ! :dubious: You read **pulykamell** ’s post; you quoted part of it. With a £3.8million pot, each person would win just £380. Hardly _almost\_infinity_. ---
**Author:** ![Hail\_Ants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Hail\_Ants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hail_Ants)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2013, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/38 "2013-06-01T02:36:29Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > Which part is extra silly? Trying to play numbers you think will be a unique pick? Uh, yeah. You’re already facing odds of over 175,000,000 to 1 against, and you’re making plans for _after_ you beat those?! Fits my definition of silly… ---
**Author:** ![tracer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tracer/32/20578_2.png) [@tracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tracer)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2013, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/39 "2013-06-01T02:38:34Z")
Interesting game you have here, Dr. Falkien. It seems the only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess? ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Robson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gary_robson/32/3448_2.png) [@Gary\_Robson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Robson)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2013, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608/40 "2013-06-01T18:53:46Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > Uh, yeah. You’re already facing odds of over 175,000,000 to 1 against, and you’re making plans for _after_ you beat those?! Fits my definition of silly… Playing the lottery in the first place is silly. Playing it in such a way that you maximize the payout if you do happen to win makes it every so slightly LESS silly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-number-picking-question/659608.md?page=3)