# Lottery odds question
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647
**Category:** Factual Questions
**Created:** [December 10, 2010, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647 "2010-12-10T11:54:51Z")
**Posts on this page:** 10
**Page:** 2
### Author:  [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)
#### Post date: [December 10, 2010, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/21 "2010-12-10T16:04:12Z")
> [@SpeedwayRyan](#):
>
> On a somewhat related note, [check out this link at cockeyed.com](http://cockeyed.com/citizen/poker/lottery_simulator100.php) – it’s a California lottery simulator. Pick your numbers, set it to play them twice a week for ten years, and see how much money you make. It really drives the point home that the lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math.
Interesting site. I picked a ticket through [random.org](http://random.org)’s lottery quick-picker and ran some trials.
[ol]
[li]You played 1040 games of Mega Millions. It cost $1040. You won $76.[/li][li]You played 1040 games of Mega Millions. It cost $1040. You won $103. [/li][li]You played 1040 games of Mega Millions. It cost $1040. You won $55. [/li][li]You played 1040 games of Mega Millions. It cost $1040. You won $55. [/li][li]You played 1040 games of Mega Millions. It cost $1040. You won $224. [/li][li]You played 1040 games of Mega Millions. It cost $1040. You won $109. [/li][/ol]
So playing my one ticket 6000 times I lost a lot of simulated money.
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### Author:  [@bucketybuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bucketybuck)
#### Post date: [December 10, 2010, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/22 "2010-12-10T16:25:39Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#):
>
> Not that it’s my reply, but the response was an honest attempt to answer why an answer may not even be possible.
>
> It’s not just that these numbers aren’t easily quantifiable but also that the situation, as proposed, is ill-defined.
>
> For example, positing this is such a universe, there’s a non-zero probability that I will be given a lottery ticket as a gift 5 days from now. There’s also a non-zero probability that the ticket is a winner. So, in this universe, I’m guaranteed to be a winner because there’s a non-zero probability of the event?
>
> From my understanding of the OP, this type of situation isn’t one covered by the OP. But it does fall into the range of possible starting assumptions from the OP.
>
> On review, this is pretty much what a lot of the other posters are saying.
Ok, its a fair point, and I concede it was a mistake to frame the question within the idea of an infinite universe. To be honest, my intent with that was to forestall the type of replies that would just say, “it wouldnt happen”, by stating from the start that it would happen somewhere.
So, to clarify the question. What are the odds of Joe Bloggs, a middle class man from Manhatten, of winning the state lottery, having never bought a ticket?
Does anybody know how many lottery tickets are bought as gifts each year?
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### Author:  [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)
#### Post date: [December 10, 2010, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/23 "2010-12-10T16:41:14Z")
I don’t know how many people have won a state or national lottery without personally having bought a ticket, or even how you’d find something like that out, but at least it’s a definite question with a definite answer. (Though, would you count something like the [waitress who was given half the winnings from a lottery ticket as a tip](http://www.snopes.com/luck/lottery.asp)?)
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### Author:  [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)
#### Post date: [December 10, 2010, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/24 "2010-12-10T21:46:29Z")
My guess is that the OP is alluding to alleged lottery tickets from another country which you never bought that some kindly Nigerian wants to reward you for anyway.
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### Author:  [@bucketybuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bucketybuck)
#### Post date: [December 10, 2010, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/25 "2010-12-10T22:00:11Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#):
>
> My guess is that the OP is alluding to alleged lottery tickets from another country which you never bought that some kindly Nigerian wants to reward you for anyway.
What does this even mean? Nigerian scam? You think I am “alluding” to something? The very first line in this thread tells you what lead to its posting, did you read that far? What are you getting at?
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#):
>
> Though, would you count something like the [waitress who was given half the winnings from a lottery ticket as a tip](http://www.snopes.com/luck/lottery.asp)?)
Definitely, IMO. The lady won the lottery. She didnt buy a ticket. Is it even possible to calculate the odds of a customer not only buying a lottery ticket, but offering to split the winnings, and then following through on that offer?
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### Author:  [@gazpacho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gazpacho)
#### Post date: [December 10, 2010, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/26 "2010-12-10T23:09:49Z")
> [@bucketybuck](#):
>
> Definitely, IMO. The lady won the lottery. She didnt buy a ticket. Is it even possible to calculate the odds of a customer not only buying a lottery ticket, but offering to split the winnings, and then following through on that offer?
In my opinion it is not possible to calculate the odds of a customer being given a winning ticket. I is possible to do surveys and get a good idea of the number of people who are given tickets and come up with odds.
To me calculating the probabilities means using the rules of the game and the math of probability to determine the answer. This is different between making measurements of a systems to determine properties of the system.
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### Author:  [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)
#### Post date: [December 11, 2010, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/27 "2010-12-11T03:29:01Z")
> [@septimus](#):
>
> I’m not sure this is true in Thailand; let me explain why.
>
> As shown [in this news story](http://www.lotterypost.com/news/104195), the winning 6-digit number was 113311, an odd-looking number not due to chance but due to a cheating method. That was nine years ago. IIRC, a similar incident occurred about 6 years ago. (I think the government may have refused to pay on those tickets, though they didn’t reimburse losses of underground lottery operators, e.g. my brother-in-law. 🆒 )
>
> Anyway, I’m afraid that when my number, e.g. 447777 comes in, the government will demand a redraw, even without evidence of cheating.
>
> (The reason I play such numbers is very simple. I like to be friendly with the ticket agents, but don’t like wasting money on lottery, so when they offer me a triple number I say, No no, I only play quadruples! Now they save their quadruple-number tickets for me, and of course I have to buy them! :smack: )
I distinctly recall a lady winning all three top prizes some years ago. She claimed the numbers had come to her in a dream. IIRC, they went ahead and gave her the prizes.
I’m not sure what the lottery is supposed to fund officially, but word is it actually profits a certain someone in a Family That Must Not Be Named, and this could have been some sort of reward for her for, er, “services rendered.”
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### Author:  [@J\_Cubed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/J_Cubed)
#### Post date: [December 11, 2010, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/28 "2010-12-11T04:56:47Z")
> [@SpeedwayRyan](#):
>
> On a somewhat related note, [check out this link at cockeyed.com](http://cockeyed.com/citizen/poker/lottery_simulator100.php) – it’s a California lottery simulator. Pick your numbers, set it to play them twice a week for ten years, and see how much money you make. It really drives the point home that the lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math.
Funnily enough, someone must have won big, because the bottom of the results page says this:
[QUOTE=Fake Lottery]
In the 73003588 times this simulation has run, players have won $147610151
And by won I mean they have won back $147610151 of the $73003588 they spent (202%).
[/QUOTE]
And by “won” I mean the actual definition of “won”, wherein you double your money. :smack:
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### Author:  [@SpeedwayRyan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpeedwayRyan)
#### Post date: [December 11, 2010, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/29 "2010-12-11T06:04:37Z")
> [@J\_Cubed](#):
>
> Funnily enough, someone must have won big, because the bottom of the results page says this:
>
> And by “won” I mean the actual definition of “won”, wherein you double your money. :smack:
Haha yeah, that little automated counter would have made for a better joke before someone won!
I’m guessing Rob (the site’s creator) probably didn’t guess it would be so popular. It was played 75,000,000 times, and in the real Mega Millions lottery, the odds of winning $250,000 are about 1 in 4 million, while the odds of winning the big multi-million dollar jackpot are about one in 175 million. He probably thought he was pretty safe on the big jackpot…his site gets a good bit of traffic, but apparently there are compulsive gamblers even when it’s pretend money at stake!
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### Author:  [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)
#### Post date: [December 11, 2010, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lottery-odds-question/563647/30 "2010-12-11T06:10:12Z")
I got to propose advertising ideas for our state lottery once.
Nobody liked my idea for a tagline:
**"The Lottery. Consider it a tax on stupidity."**
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