Yet you’ve been busily denying its legitimacy? You don’t know what it says? Why should anyone take your arguments seriously if you don’t even look at cited data?
The “appropriate number” is “zero,” as you well know from the course of this post if nothing else. Thank me later for doing your research for you, and for confirming that this subject is too painful for you even to utter the word.
It pains you grievously to think about it because you seem to want lots of black women to have actually been raped, lots, by white boys, and the lack of any evidence that they have in the data in question (which is to me a good thing for all of us) is apparently too painful for you to even look at (by the way, I acutually think you’re lying about not having looked at the DOJ figures, I don’t think you could have resisted the urge to see if my quoting of them could be quibbled with, same difference).
But that’s your particular fucked-up cross to bear, sicko.
The wire services are reporting that the defense expects the DA to seek indictment(s) next Monday. I do not know if GJ proceedings are closed in N.C., I suspect they are, but if he has additional evidence, that will be a good time for his to use it (he does not have to because the GJ burden is probable cause (IAMANCL but this seems pretty standard) whereas proof at trial requires “beyond a reasonable doubt.”
I am interested in thoughts as to my earlier question, whether the DA has properly (in your view) observed the N.C. ethics rules. (If nothing else, such a discussion might skew the banner ads away from the below one that’s currently on the page (and that advertises a service I did not even know or want to know existed)).
the page you cite refers to single perp. crimes, this was an alledged gang rape. I scanned through the next 7 pages of data and failed to find a racial break down for multiple perps which contained victim race, but DID find that white males are more likely apparently to be perpetrators in gang rapes. (page 35)Type of crime victimizations Total white black other races available
Rape/Sexual assault/a 29,500 * 100 * 57.3 (white) * 21.0 (black)* 21.6 (all other)* 0.0 * 0.0 *
(on page 37 it had demographics about crime victim race/perp race w/multiples, but did not single out rape vs. other crimes, so we have no way of ascertaining that if a black woman is gang raped, what is the most likely demographic for the perps, other, of course, than the original data of white males are more likely to be the perps than blacks.)
and naturally none of this data factors in the relative expectancy of any given race for the deomgraphics of the locality.
I read about this in an another article this morning…I’m thinking “Hmm, Nifong must have something or he wouldn’t be taking this to the Grand Jury…would he?” I know he’s still saying he’s doing it based on the medical exam.
IADefinitelyNAL, so maybe I’m grossly underestimating the level of cynicism of a DA up for election…he wouldn’t be going all the way in with not so much as a pair of deuces, would he? Or does he basically have nothing to lose?
That’s what I would presume, that if he drags this in to the grand jury and it turns out to be no true bill, he wouldn’t be able to get elected dog catcher.
This is the first case he has personally handled in five years. He has made over 50 media interviews about it (some have counted as many as 70) including tne O’Reilly show. He is facing a tough primary election May 2, the winner of which is certain of winning the general election, as there are no Republians running. His opponents are slamming him for how he has handled things so far. Cite. He has tremendous incentive to get some kind of indictment, in my opinion. After May 2 it can all go away.
I am skeptical of his actions. I suppose it entails a certain degree of cynicism about DAs up for election.
(1) At least on page 30, I don’t think sex of complainant or complainee is mentioned at all. I think when I first provided the cite I noted that this is an imprecision as there are likely some men among the complainants, but that doesn’t nullify the reading that the chart reflects no black (male or female) complaints of sex attack by whites.
(2) Are you looking at the column/row thing right? The left hand column is about complainant, top row is about reported assailant, so the “0” comes when you join “black victim” from the left to “white offender” from the top.
wring, I’d noted the pages you’ve cited, which provide additional data points. For the reasons you note, they are not dispositive or even perfect sources as predictors, but the the extent they also provide some weight on the probability scale, I’d not exclude them. White guys are tagged as perps. in slightly over half the reported gang rapes – if I had no other data (and didn’t know the race of the perp. or alleged perp.) I’d (all else being equal) devote, I don’t know, 57.9% of my efforts to looking for white guys.
see, and I’d use other investigatory techniques, like canvasing the area, interviewing potential witnesses and stuff. if the victim had no idea of the race of the alleged perps, I’d be looking at ‘where did this happen, when did it happen’ and try and track down other potential witnesses, vs, say a survey of all white males in the jurisdiction.
Some crimes won’t be solved. if there’s absolutely no evidence, that crime will probably be one of them. but investigating based solely on the percentage of prior bad acts of a general nature is, well, pretty fucking silly.
Depends on the electorate. The super-cynical viewpoint is he doesn’t care at all and this is about symbolism.
There’s a sort of sub-culture to politics (I guess especially lower socioecnomic politics) in which voters vote for someone in spite of, or indeed because of, his outrageous over the top conduct [I am not concluding that Nifong has reached that point, I’m just thinking of the number of times people like Edwin Edwards or Marion Berry re-gained office after it was utterly clear how morally bankrupt and ruinous they were]. The numbers I’ve seen suggest the electorate for Nifong is in the neighborhood of half-black. Maybe he feels he can benefit from sacrificing a few rich white boys, even if the case isn’t solid, as a sticking it to the man gesture. No way to prove this, of course, and I admit this is political speculation, albeit speculation that’s not unnatural when Jesse Jackson is milling around stirring up class and race resentment.
My above response, minus the dumbass part, applies here as well. No one said “solely” (why do you people have to keep dragging in words like “solely” or “inherently” or “determinative” that we have explicitly not used? Is that not a big freaking clue that you’re uncomfortable arguing against the non-strawman versions of the positions in question?), no one said to rely blindly on demographic evidence when solid eyewitness evidence was available (that being the type of “other potentially-dispositive evidence” with which I’ve qualified 60 posts), no one’s said “ignore highly probative circumstantial evidence.” Demographic or past-pattern information might have predictive value (not unlimited value, we’ve never said that, or even “great value,” just “potentially non-zero” value) in a situation (like in this case!) where the eyewitness, and forensic, and other “good” “solid” types of evidence haven’t surfaced yet.
Yeah, somewhere upthread I alluded to the white/black demographics in Durham.
From Wikipedia:
So, a large % black population compared to national average.
So yeah, that unfortunately looks like what he’s doing. ::sigh:: God, an ugly case already, it has to be made uglier with that sort of thing…so, what’s the probability of any good coming out of this?
