# Mafia: Baker Street \[Game in progress\] **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 7, 2014, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752 "2014-02-07T14:39:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 57
**Author:** ![sinjin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@sinjin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinjin)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1121 "2014-03-14T16:59:28Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > :rolleyes: > > Good to know that if I’m ever scum, all I need to do is bus the godfather and you won’t ever touch me. Right back at you. She also claimed a power role that the mod said was in the game. She also posted results of her investigations. No one ever counterclaimed, and yet you continued to throw suspicion on her veracity. Yes I will vote for a player that plays as scummy as you again. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1122 "2014-03-14T17:12:12Z")
Your strategy needs work. Mafia can fake investigations and lack of a counterclaim is a strong argument but it is not positive proof. A counterclaiming player could be uninvolved or working another plan. Also, you’re missing the fact that I never voted for her after Day 1 and I repeatedly stated that I thought she was town so as a scum strategy it’s pretty lousy. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1123 "2014-03-14T17:36:15Z")
Inner has started to ping me even more since I placed my vote yesterDay. It is something about how he is defending himself, but I can’t put my finger on it. I really think he’s a good lynch for today. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1124 "2014-03-14T18:05:46Z")
Hilariously sad. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1125 "2014-03-14T18:55:03Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > Hilariously sad. See? Like this. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1126 "2014-03-14T19:07:35Z")
I guess we should all play like mahaloth. Everyone go to the list of players and choose five at random. Now vote for one of those those players. Well done, everyone. You’re as effective as mahaloth. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1127 "2014-03-14T20:17:16Z")
> [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > The participation in this game is overwhelming. Sorry about that. I’m about to launch a new effort on my app and it’s really eating into my free time… > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > Borrowing Rysto’s lovely counts and formatting. > (snip) > **Day 3 [Final](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17165804&postcount=888)** > Texcat (6 votes) - Idle Thoughts (760), Mahaloth (763), gnarlycharlie (764), Silver Jan (775), Darth Sensitive (784), Rysto (860) > Askthepizzaguy (6 votes) – Inner Stickler (731), Mahaloth (763), Silver Jan (775), Darth Sensitive (784), Astral Rejection (828), Texcat (867) > (snip) On revision, this vote is the one I find especially interesting. I doubt there isn’t at least one scum who voted for **Texcat**. Also interesting is the overlap between both voter’s lists: **Mahaloth Darth Sensitive Silver Jan** appear on both lists Any one of them could have saved **Texcat** by the simple expedient of unvoting her. Obviously **Silver Jan** as a townie didn’t know about the situation, but I don’t think either **Mahaloth** or \*\*Darth Sensitive \*\* would have risked much by unvoting one of the leaders… Leaves **Idle Thoughts** , \*\*gnarlycharlie \*\*and **Rysto** on Texcat’s voter list. **Rysto** put her in the lynching “seat”. Would scum do this? Doubtful. Both **Idle Thoughts** and \*\*gnarlycharlie \*\* voted early for **Texcat** , when it was far from obvious she’d be lynched. It’s not an air-tight indiction but still **Vote Idle Thoughts Vote gnarlycharlie** ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1128 "2014-03-14T20:35:09Z")
> [@DiggitCamara](#): > > On revision, this vote is the one I find especially interesting. I doubt there isn’t at least one scum who voted for **Texcat**. Why? Do you think Scum ensures that at least one of them is on board a wagon, or is it just that statistically a wagon of this size usually has a scum or two? If it’s the latter case, I think you’re making a statistical fallacy. Also, please note that TexCat had already attracted much suspicion and was Scum’s special Backup Godfather. Those early votes, if by Scum, were very dangerous. You voted Astral Rejection Day 3. Why not join me and Lynch the “True Scum”? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1129 "2014-03-14T22:09:37Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > I guess we should all play like mahaloth. Everyone go to the list of players and choose five at random. Now vote for one of those those players. Well done, everyone. You’re as effective as mahaloth. What you described is not what I’ve done at all. I would vote for all of the players in my clue if I knew who they were in the game. Your name came up and I voted it. Your reaction does not help me believe you. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1130 "2014-03-14T22:28:47Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Other than the fact that his name is in my clue, what case do we have on Inner? I think we should lynch him, but am curious if there is more than my clue that makes you suspect him. Mahaloth, I don’t see how you can seriously expect us to follow your lead in lynching Inner Stickler when you yourself have no other case beside your clue. We don’t know if your clue is true (if you’re town) or if the clue is being accurately reported (if you’re scum and it exists at all). If you have literally nothing else to go on, how can you expect us to follow you? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1131 "2014-03-15T00:04:11Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Mahaloth, I don’t see how you can seriously expect us to follow your lead in lynching Inner Stickler when you yourself have no other case beside your clue. > > We don’t know if your clue is true (if you’re town) or if the clue is being accurately reported (if you’re scum and it exists at all). If you have literally nothing else to go on, how can you expect us to follow you? It’s really up to everyone to decide. If folks have stronger cases, go for those. The only thing I can add is Inner’s reaction seems over the top. If folks want to lynch someone else, I’m fine with that. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1132 "2014-03-15T00:09:17Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > What you described is not what I’ve done at all. I would vote for all of the players in my clue if I knew who they were in the game. Your name came up and I voted it. Your reaction does not help me believe you. Five names, at least one of whom is scum. No, statistically it’s about the same. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1133 "2014-03-15T02:55:53Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Why? Do you think Scum ensures that at least one of them is on board a wagon, or is it just that statistically a wagon of this size usually has a scum or two? > > If it’s the latter case, I think you’re making a statistical fallacy. Also, please note that TexCat had already attracted much suspicion and was Scum’s special Backup Godfather. Those early votes, if by Scum, were very dangerous. > > You voted Astral Rejection Day 3. Why not join me and Lynch the “True Scum”? 😉 Usually Scum will participate in Scum lynches because they are well aware that they’d could be easily detected if they flee from them. Also, when they vote early on they’ll fear that upon detection of the lynchee, even if it is during a latter Day/Night their behavior will be noticed. Funnily enough, your comment draws my attention. You’re “White Knighting”, even if it’s in a roundabout manner. **Vote septimus** ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Sensitive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/58956e/32.png) [@Darth\_Sensitive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Sensitive)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1134 "2014-03-15T03:25:49Z")
> [@gnarlycharlie](#): > > well, fuck. wait, am i allowed to say that on the Dope? > > okay, to summarize why i voted to for **Darth** : > > 1. he voted for players who demonstrated that they went after scum like **Scathach** , **wevets** and **Rysto**. I voted people who weren’t doing anything an an attempt to prod them into playing. You might have noted me unvoting rysto immediately after she added more analysis at the end of the day. Now that there are mod threats, I’m not going to do so again. Saying that **scathach** went after scum is a huge stretch. Scat voted **Texcat** day 1 for getting suspicion over his clue (ring a bell?) - then didn’t vote for her, or anybody else on contested days 3 or 4. **Wevets** had a day one vote on **Chronos** , then nothing on day 3. **Rysto** has at least done something in the last fortnight. > [@](#): > > he also voted for me despite my pursuit of **Texcat**. > > 1. i was already suspicious of him since D1. You’ve voted for me, TexCat, and Astral for days. Because we expressed suspicion about your clue. You did not “pursue” Texcat. To reiterate your actual votes: > [@gnarlycharlie](#): > > i subscribe to this. the risk of counterclaim is greater. > > the third vote tell is not reliable at all. as town, i’ve been the third vote several times and so have many others. > if i’m scum, how am i risking helping myself? that makes no sense. > > careful, you might get voted for that. i initially thought that meant you were scum but i realized that doesn’t matter. with a large number of players duplication of clues isn’t implausible. > > …and there it is. so we are both scum? still makes no sense. > > you’re making the same argument as **Texcat**. so we’re both scum. this is using the shotgun approach. why are you minimizing the chances we’re both town? > > did i see someone say that clues may be duplicated? i forget. > > don’t bother. it’s possible scum would do anything no matter how stupid it may seem. :rolleyes: > > **vote Texcat** > **vote Darth Sensitive** > > seems it doesn’t matter to these two whoever is lynched between \*\*Scathach \*\*and me. > [@gnarlycharlie](#): > > that’s a dangerous assertion. if i am lynched, would you then lynch **Scáthach** when i flip town? if she and i were both town that would be great for scum. > > \*\* vote Astral Rejection \*\* > > * * * > > what do you people think of the possibility that not only do scum have correct clues but also all the correct clues? > [@gnarlycharlie](#): > > i see you’re from the school of lynch all liars. there are several instances when it’s advantageous for town to lie. get out of the 1900s. 😉 > > aw, spill it. > > * * * > > i’ll continue my votes from yesterday. > > \*\* Texcat \*\* > \*\* Astral Rejection \*\* > > i’m not seeing why \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\* would be killed by a vig. could he have killed by a scum with an extra kill who was in danger of being lynched? > [@gnarlycharlie](#): > > i only get squirrelly when voted for stupid reasons. 😉 > > that’s the best reason you have on D3? i obviously wasn’t sly about asking about your powers. you appeared to have two of them. whenever there are results or knowledge claimed it’s far from unusual to question them to see if they are believable. > > you didn’t even bother to answer my question yesterDay. that’s the problem with players who are practically confirmed as Town. suddenly you believe your correct about your suspicions. pretty irresponsible. in this game, you haven’t been good just lucky. > > if you’re town, you’ll be wrong again. i have gotten you though but then you made it easy that game. > > until i see better suspects, > > \*\*Vote Astral Rejection \*\* > **Vote Texcat** > **Vote Darth Sensitive** > [@gnarlycharlie](#): > > \*\*Darth Sensitive \*\* Y **o** ur **m** any **g** reat votes are tremendo **u** s examples of well reasoned **s** cum hunting. You can tell by how you revoted the same way every day and restated your case with the new evidence that had come up. **Vote gnarlycharlie** ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1135 "2014-03-15T16:16:07Z")
First, money where my mouth is: **Vote Idle Thoughts.** Now, a proper vote count: Scathach (2): Inner Stickler, Mahaloth Inner Stickler (2): Mahaloth, sinjin Astral Rejection (2): septimus, Idle Thoughts septimus (2): sinjin, DiggitCamara Idle Thoughts (2): DiggitCamara, Astral Rejection gnarlycharlie (2): DiggitCamara, Darth Sensitive They’ve said getting town to coalesce on a single target is like herding cats, and this is maybe the epitome of that sentiment. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1136 "2014-03-15T16:24:13Z")
Now, once again, it bothers me that **Mahaloth** is voting for someone (Inner Stickler) _and_ following Inner Stickler’s lead by voting for Scathach. I don’t think this kind of thing will ever stop bothering me. So, I’m going to go ahead and put another person out for potential lynch. **Vote Mahaloth.** At this point in the game, I expect better-reasoned votes. I’ve played with Mahaloth many times in the past, and I’ve never seen him this disengaged. He has consistently missed key facts, missed rules, misunderstood people’s comments, missed how useless his votes are, and stayed in the shadows. I’ve swung my belief from town skimming to scum intentionally playing this way. I’ve forgiven him by a “scum really wouldn’t do that” rationale for too much of the game, hoping he’d jump in. Here’s an egregious example of what I’m talking about: > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > So, scummers! I have a one-shot power, how exciting! Is it a protection? An investigation? A lovely watch, perhaps? Something more… _esoteric_? Maybe I’m immune to night kill, how droll! Am I lying, and saving this power for later? Such intrigue! > [@Mahaloth](#): > > Astral, can you tell us what your power is? I laughed it off originally… but this has been his play all game, and I hadn’t really been considering the cumulative effects of his play. His vote for Inner is really inexcusable, and I don’t find his response to my questioning him all that townie a perspective. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1137 "2014-03-15T17:11:40Z")
> [@DiggitCamara](#): > > Sorry about that. I’m about to launch a new effort on my app and it’s really eating into my free time… > > On revision, this vote is the one I find especially interesting. I doubt there isn’t at least one scum who voted for **Texcat**. Also interesting is the overlap between both voter’s lists: > > **Mahaloth > Darth Sensitive > Silver Jan** > > appear on both lists > > Any one of them could have saved **Texcat** by the simple expedient of unvoting her. Obviously **Silver Jan** as a townie didn’t know about the situation, but I don’t think either **Mahaloth** or \*\*Darth Sensitive \*\* would have risked much by unvoting one of the leaders… > > Leaves **Idle Thoughts** , \*\*gnarlycharlie \*\*and **Rysto** on Texcat’s voter list. **Rysto** put her in the lynching “seat”. Would scum do this? Doubtful. > > Both **Idle Thoughts** and \*\*gnarlycharlie \*\* voted early for **Texcat** , when it was far from obvious she’d be lynched. > > It’s not an air-tight indiction but still > > **Vote Idle Thoughts > Vote gnarlycharlie** Two things, though: 1. Say I were scum. Then I’d know **Chronos** was the Godfather, right? Well, he was lynched Day Two. **Texcat** was the backup Godfather. So if I were scum, I would probably know that too, right? So why would I be so quick and eager to take out the back up leader of the scum you think I am? Keep in mind, I was suspicious of **Texcat** since Day One and voted for her Day Two as well…so my suspicion and voting of her has been consistent. It was never a thing that just came up out of the blue. 2. If I were scum and knew **Tex** was scum, why wouldn’t I at least try to lynch another person who was near the top of the vote getting, like **ATPG** (who turned out to be Town) and try to save the back up Godfather? ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1138 "2014-03-15T17:21:44Z")
Not going to use the “scum would never do that”…but I might bust out with the “scum would be extremely stupid and foolish to do that” opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1139 "2014-03-15T17:57:47Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Now, once again, it bothers me that **Mahaloth** is voting for someone (Inner Stickler) _and_ following Inner Stickler’s lead by voting for Scathach. ][/color] Why not? I am not sure he’s scum and I kind of don’t mind killing scathach. I’m not going to \*not \*vote for someone just because it was initiated by someone I am also voting for. > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > Five names, at least one of whom is scum. No, statistically it’s about the same. Except you said we’d pick the names randomly. My clue may be true and contain a scum identity. Us choosing a random 5 people and voting one is not the same as what I’m doing. I’m taking a shot into a pool provided to me by the moderator. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2014, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1140 "2014-03-15T18:34:28Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Except you said we’d pick the names randomly. My clue may be true and contain a scum identity. Us choosing a random 5 people and voting one is not the same as what I’m doing. I’m taking a shot into a pool provided to me by the moderator. There’s a 50/50 shot your clue is true, assuming you’re town. Assuming further that only one name on your list is scum, we have (0.5)\*(0.2) chance of you correctly picking scum based on your clue. Mathematically, that’s a one-in-ten chance of finding scum. This is true because your list is a subset of all players, and your vote rationale can’t consider players outside that subset. Picking a random player out of all players at the outset of the game brings your odds up to a little over 25%\*, which I think you’ll admit is better odds. But it doesn’t stop there! We have fewer than 22 players now, and most likely 4\* remaining scum. Assuming you pick randomly out of the 14 remaining players (and let’s drop it to 13, since you won’t vote yourself), a random vote has a 30% chance of netting scum. You’ve heard of the Monte Hall problem, right? Cecil did a Straight Dope Column on it. To sum up: when you choose one door out of three at the beginning of the game, you have a one-in-three shot at the prize. When an unrelated door is revealed to be not the prize, _you should always change your door choice._ The game is no longer the same as it was on the outset… by changing, you’re giving yourself a one-in-two shot at the prize. And the doors don’t even talk to you and reveal their scumminess in the Monte Hall show. You’d be better off glomming onto somebody’s case you like, because at least that way somebody put some thought into it. (\*assuming 6 total scum players from the “Players minus 75%” formula for deriving scum totals.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752.md?page=56) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752.md?page=58)