# Mafia: Baker Street \[Game in progress\]

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [February 7, 2014, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752 "2014-02-07T14:39:18Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 64

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**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1261 "2014-03-23T17:02:17Z")

</div>

Latest vote chart:

[spoiler]Askthepizzaguy vf Darth Sensitive, 83  
Darth Sensitive vf Askthepizzaguy, [del]unvote Askthepizzaguy[/del] 100  
Chronos vf Mahaloth, 104  
Askthepizzaguy [del]unvote Darth Sensitive,[/del] vf Darth Sensitive, 114  
sinjin vf Mahaloth, vf Askthepizzaguy, 149  
Askthepizzaguy vf sinjin, 151  
wevets vf Inner Stickler, vf Chronos, vf Idle Thoughts, vf Astral Rejection, 177  
septimus vf Idle Thoughts, 187  
**Johnny Bravo** vf Idle Thoughts, 189  
Astral Rejection vf Silver Jan, 190  
Askthepizzaguy vf Silver Jan, vf DaphneBlack, [del]unvote Darth Sensitive[/del], 211  
DaphneBlack vf Septimus, vf Silver Jan, 220  
Astral Rejection vf DaphneBlack, 223  
Inner Stickler vf DaphneBlack, 224  
DaphneBlack vf Astral Rejection, 225  
DiggitCamara vf DaphneBlack, 228  
Chronos vf Astral Rejection, vf Askthepizzaguy, 237  
Captain Klutz vf Silver Jan, 240  
Septimus [del]unvote Idle Thoughts,[/del] vf DaphneBlack, 252  
**Johnny Bravo** [del]unvote Idle Thoughts,[/del] 256  
TexCat vf Septimus, 258  
TexCat vf gnarlycharlie, 260  
**Dizzymrslizzy** vf sinjin, 274  
TexCat vf Scathach, 285  
Scathach vf TexCat, 290  
**Johnny Bravo** vf DaphneBlack, vf DiggitCamara, 291  
Darth Sensitive vf gnarlycharlie, vf Scathach, 296  
Idle Thoughts vf septimus, 303  
Astral Rejection [del]unvote DaphneBlack,[/del] 204  
DaphneBlack vf DiggitCamara, 308  
Silver Jan vf **Dizzymrslizzy,** 309  
Septimus [del]unvote DaphneBlack,[/del] vf TexCat, vf Idle Thoughts, 310  
**Johnny Bravo** [del]unvote DaphneBlack,[/del] 313  
TexCat vf Silver Jan, 316  
Silver Jan vf TexCat, 318  
DaphneBlack vf Silver Jan, 321  
Rysto vf Astral Rejection, 340  
**Dizzymrslizzy** vf TexCat, 343  
DiggitCamara [del]unvote DaphneBlack,[/del] 353  
gnarlycharlie vf TexCat, vf Darth Sensitive, 362  
Inner Stickler [del]unvote DaphneBlack,[/del] vf Askthepizzaguy, 364  
TexCat [del]unvote gnarlycharlie, unvote Scathach, unvote Silver Jan,[/del] 368  
Silver Jan [del]unvote TexCat,[/del] 370  
Chronos vf Captain Klutz, vf Pleonast, 371  
LightFoot vf Pleonast, vf **Johnny Bravo** , 376  
Darth Sensitive [del]unvote Scathach,[/del] 377  
Chronos [del]unvote Captain Klutz,[/del] 382  
Mahaloth vf Pleonast, 384  
Askthepizzaguy vf DiggitCamara, 392  
septimus vf **Dizzymrslizzy** , 395  
gnarlycharlie vf Astral Rejection, 407  
Pleonast vf Askthepizzaguy, 415  
Pleonast vf TexCat, 431  
Darth Sensitive vf Pleonast, 432  
Astral Rejection vf LightFoot, 440  
Astral Rejection [del]unvote Silver Jan,[/del] 442  
DaphneBlack [del]unvote septimus,[/del] vf **Dizzymrslizzy** , 449  
Askthepizzaguy [del]unvote DaphneBlack,[/del] 454  
Askthepizzaguy vf Pleonast, 455  
Astral Rejection vf Pleonast, 467  
Pleonast vf Chronos, 468  
Astral Rejection vf **Dizzymrslizzy** , 473  
Pleonast vf LightFoot, vf Mahaloth, 474  
Askthepizzaguy [del]unvote Pleonast,[/del] 485  
DaphneBlack [del]unvote Astral Rejection,[/del] 487  
Askthepizzaguy unvote DiggitCamara, vf **Dizzymrslizzy** , 490  
Darth Sensitive vf **dizzymrslizzy** , Askthepizzaguy, 495  
septimus vf Astral Rejection, 496  
TexCat vf **Dizzymrslizzy** , 506  
Captain Klutz vf **Dizzymrslizzy** , 512  
wevets [del]unvote Idle Thoughts,[/del] 515  
Astral Rejection [del]unvote Pleonast,[/del] 516  
Johnny Bravo vf LightFoot, 517

Day 1 ends, Day 2 Starts: 528  
**Dizzymrslizzy** , vanilla town, was lynched.  
**Johnny Bravo** , town Mason, was killed.

**DAY 2**

Idle Thoughts vf TexCat, vf Astral Rejection, 532  
Pleonast vf DiggitCamara, vf Idle Thoughts, vf TexCat, vf Chronos, [del]unvote Idle Thoughts,[/del] 535  
((Mahaloth [del]unvote Pleonast, 538[/del])) **(Please note this is from the previous day)**  
Askthepizzaguy vf Inner Stickler, 540  
Inner Stickler vf Askthepizzaguy, 541  
Idle Thoughts [del]unvote TexCat[/del], 545  
DaphneBlack vf Chronos, 547  
Chronos vf Mahaloth, vf Astral Rejection, vf Askthepizzaguy, vf Pleonast, 550  
wevets vf Askthepizzaguy, 552  
wevets vf Astral Rejection, 554  
gnarlycharlie vf TexCat, vf Astral Rejection, 555  
sinjin vf Mahaloth, vf Askthepizzaguy, vf Chronos, 568  
Astral Rejection vf Chronos, vf LightFoot, 577  
Pleonast [del]unvote Chronos,[/del] 594  
Inner Stickler vf Chronos, 599  
TexCat vf Chronos, 602  
Pleonast vf Chronos, 605  
Astral Rejection [del]unvote LightFoot[/del], 613  
Darth Sensitive vf Askthepizzaguy, vf Chronos, 621  
DaphneBlack vf gnarlycharlie, 622  
sinjin [del]unvote Mahaloth, unvote Askthepizzaguy, unvote Chronos,[/del] vf Chronos, 624  
Askthepizzaguy vf Chronos, 628  
Mahaloth vf Chronos, 632  
DiggitCamara vf Chronos, 636  
DiggitCamara vf Askthepizzaguy, 637  
Idle Thoughts vf Chronos, 648  
LightFoot vf Chronos, 652  
septimus vf Chronos, 659  
TexCat vf Mahaloth, 663  
wevets vf Chronos, [del]unvote Askthepizzaguy, unvote Astral Rejection[/del], 666  
Captain Klutz vf Chronos, 667  
gnarlycharlie vf Chronos, 668  
Silver Jan vf Chronos, 683

Day 2 ends, Day 3 starts: 710  
Chronos, Scum Godfather, was lynched.  
Captain Klutz, town Mason/Doctor, was killed.

**DAY 3**

Askthepizzaguy vf Inner Stickler, vf sinjin, vf gnarlycharlie, 724  
Inner Stickler vf Askthepizzaguy, 731  
DaphneBlack vf gnarlycharlie, 741  
Askthepizzaguy [del]unvote Inner Stickler, unvote sinjin,[/del] 742  
Idle Thoughts vf Astral Rejection, 754  
septimus vf TexCat, vf Idle Thoughts, 757  
Idle Thoughts vf Septimus, vf TexCat, 760  
Mahaloth vf TexCat, vf Askthepizzaguy, vf pleonast, 763  
gnarlycharlie vf Astral Rejection, vf TexCat, vf Darth Sensitive, 764  
Silver Jan vf TexCat, vf Askthepizzaguy, 775  
Darth Sensitive vf TexCat, vf Askthepizzaguy, 784  
sinjin vf Inner Stickler, 788  
TexCat vf septimus, vf Idle Thoughts, vf Mahaloth, vf gnarlycharlie, vf Silver Jan, vf Darth Sensitive, 802  
DiggitCamara vf Astral Rejection, 809  
Askthepizzaguy [del]unvote gnarlycharlie[/del], vf Mahaloth, 814  
Askthepizzaguy vf Astral Rejection, 815  
DaphneBlack vf septimus, vf Darth Sensitive, vf wevets, 820  
septimus [del]unvote TexCat[/del], vf Darth Sensitive, 824  
Astral Rejection vf Askthepizzaguy, 828  
TexCat [del]unvote Idle Thoughts, unvote septimus, unvote gnarlycharlie[/del], 829  
Askthepizzaguy vf Darth Sensitive, 843  
Askthepizzaguy [del]unvote Astral Rejection[/del], 851  
Rysto vf Astral Rejection, 852  
Rysto vf TexCat, 860

((TexCat vf Askthepizzaguy, vf Rysto, 867)) **after deadline**

Day 3 ends, Day 4 starts: 888  
**TexCat** , scum backup godfather, was lynched.  
**Silver Jan** , vanilla town, was killed.

**DAY 4**  
Askthepizzaguy vf Astral Rejection, 893  
DaphneBlack vf septimus, vf Darth Sensitive, 899  
Idle Thoughts vf septimus, vf Darth Sensitive, 920  
Mahaloth vf Inner Stickler, 939  
septimus vf Pleonast, vf Darth Sensitive, 981  
sinjin vf Mahaloth, vf Inner Stickler, 987  
DiggitCamara vf Askthepizzaguy, vf Mahaloth, 996  
septimus vf Askthepizzaguy, 997  
Astral Rejection vf sinjin, vf LightFoot, vf Darth Sensitive, 1024  
Astral Rejection vf Idle Thoughts, 1027  
septimus vf Idle Thoughts, 1033  
DiggitCamara vf Scathach, vf wevets, 1036  
Idle Thoughts vf Astral Rejection, 1040  
Darth Sensitive vf Rysto, vf Scathach, vf wevets, 1067  
Rysto vf Askthepizzaguy, 1068  
Darth Sensitive vf Pleonast, vf gnarlycharlie, 1069  
Darth Sensitive [del]unvote Rysto[/del], 1070  
Darth Sensitive vf Askthepizzaguy, 1073  
Askthepizzaguy [del]unvote Astral Rejection[/del], vf Askthepizzaguy, 1075  
Septimus [del]unvote Askthepizzaguy[/del], 1077  
Inner Stickler vf Askthepizzaguy, vf sinjin, vf Idle Thoughts, 1079  
Astral Rejection [del]unvote sinjin, unvote LightFoot, unvote Darth Sensitive, unvote Idle Thoughts[/del], vf Idle Thoughts, 1080  
LightFoot vf Darth Sensitive, vf Idle Thoughts, 1086  
gnarlycharlie vf Darth Sensitive, 1088

Day 4 ends, Day 5 starts: 1101  
**Askthepizzaguy** , vanilla town, was lynched.  
**DaphneBlack** , town lots of roles, was killed.

Inner Stickler vf Scathach, 1105  
Mahaloth vf Inner Stickler, vf Scathach, 1106  
septimus vf Astral Rejection, 1108  
Idle Thoughts vf Astral Rejection, 1109  
sinjin vf septimus, vf Inner Stickler, 1113  
DiggitCamara vf Idle Thoughts, vf gnarlycharlie, 1127  
DiggitCamara vf septimus, 1133  
Darth Sensitive vf gnarlycharlie, 1134  
Astral Rejection vf Idle Thoughts, 1135  
Astral Rejection vf Mahaloth, 1136  
Darth Sensitive vf Mahaloth, 1145  
sinjin vf Mahaloth, 1146  
Astral Rejection [del]unvote Mahaloth[/del], 1148  
gnarlycharlie vf Darth Sensitive, 1153  
Septimus vf Darth Sensitive, vf sinjin, vf wevets, 1156  
Inner Stickler vf Idle Thoughts, 1158  
Idle Thoughts vf Inner Stickler, 1160  
Inner Stickler vf Mahaloth, 1184

Day 5 ends, Day 6 begins: 1227  
**Idle Thoughts** , vanilla town, was lynched.  
**DiggitCamara** , vanilla town, was killed.  
**color=blue]Scathach**[/color], vanilla town, was mod-killed.  
**color=blue]LightFoot**[/color], vanilla town, was mod-killed.  
**color=red]wevets**[/color], scum doctor avoiderer, was mod-killed.  
**color=red]Pleonast**[/color], scum poisoner, was mod-killed.[/spoiler]

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1262 "2014-03-23T17:07:11Z")

</div>

For fun, I thought I’d take a look at how many times the unknowns have voted for each other. Click the spoiler for the full chart, or skip below it to the results.

[spoiler]sinjin 1 - mahaloth 149  
sinjin vf Inner Stickler, 788  
sinjin vf Mahaloth, vf Inner Stickler, 987  
sinjin vf septimus, vf Inner Stickler, 1113  
sinjin vf Mahaloth, 1146

Darth Sensitive vf gnarlycharlie, 296  
Darth Sensitive vf Rysto, 1067  
Darth Sensitive vf gnarlycharlie, 1069  
Darth Sensitive vf gnarlycharlie, 1134

Rysto vf Astral Rejection, 340  
Rysto vf Astral Rejection, 852

gnarlycharlie vf TexCat, vf Darth Sensitive, 362  
gnarlycharlie vf Astral Rejection, 407  
gnarlycharlie vf Astral Rejection, 555  
gnarlycharlie vf Astral Rejection, vf Darth Sensitive, 764  
gnarlycharlie vf Darth Sensitive, 1088  
gnarlycharlie vf Darth Sensitive, 1153

septimus vf Astral Rejection, 496  
septimus vf Darth Sensitive, 824  
septimus vf Darth Sensitive, 981  
septimus vf Astral Rejection, 1108  
Septimus vf Darth Sensitive, vf sinjin, 1156

Mahaloth vf Inner Stickler, 939  
Mahaloth vf Inner Stickler, 1106

Darth Sensitive vf Mahaloth, 1145

Astral Rejection vf sinjin, vf Darth Sensitive, 1024  
Astral Rejection vf Mahaloth, 1136

Inner Stickler vf sinjin, 1079  
Inner Stickler vf Mahaloth, 1184[/spoiler]

The first number is total number of votes from a surviving player. Second number is how many unique surviving players have voted for that person.

Mahaloth (6/4): sinjin, sinjin, sinjin, Darth Sensitive, Astral Rejection, Inner Stickler  
Astral Rejection (7/3): Rysto, Rysto, gnarlycharlie, gnarlycharlie, gnarlycharlie, septimus, septimus  
Darth Sensitive (7/3): gnarlycharlie, gnarlycharlie, gnarlycharlie, septimus, septimus, septimus, Astral Rejection  
sinjin (3/3): septimus, Astral Rejection, Inner Stickler  
Inner Stickler (5/2): sinjin, sinjin, sinjin, Mahaloth, Mahaloth  
gnarlycharlie (3/1): Darth Sensitive, Darth Sensitive, Darth Sensitive,  
Rysto (1): Darth Sensitive  
septimus (1): sinjin

Next, I’m going to compile how many dead town & scum player votes each surviving player has accrued during the game. See you guys in a few minutes.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1263 "2014-03-23T17:27:44Z")

</div>

Again, click the spoiler for the full chart, or just skip to the results.

[spoiler]sinjin:  
Askthepizzaguy vf sinjin, 151  
Dizzymrslizzy vf sinjin, 274  
Askthepizzaguy vf sinjin, 724

Darth Sensitive:  
Askthepizzaguy vf Darth Sensitive, 83  
TexCat vf Darth Sensitive, 802  
DaphneBlack vf Darth Sensitive, 820  
Askthepizzaguy vf Darth Sensitive, 843  
DaphneBlack vf Darth Sensitive, 899  
Idle Thoughts vf Darth Sensitive, 920  
LightFoot vf Darth Sensitive, 1086

Rysto:

gnarlycharlie:  
TexCat vf gnarlycharlie, 260  
DaphneBlack vf gnarlycharlie, 622  
Askthepizzaguy vf gnarlycharlie, 724  
DaphneBlack vf gnarlycharlie, 741  
TexCat vf gnarlycharlie, 802  
DiggitCamara vf gnarlycharlie, 1127

septimus:  
DaphneBlack vf Septimus, 220  
TexCat vf Septimus, 258  
Idle Thoughts vf septimus, 303  
Idle Thoughts vf Septimus, 760  
TexCat vf septimus, 802  
DaphneBlack vf septimus, 820  
DaphneBlack vf septimus, 899  
Idle Thoughts vf septimus, 920  
DiggitCamara vf septimus, 1133

Mahaloth:  
Chronos vf Mahaloth, 104  
Pleonast vf Mahaloth, 474  
Chronos vf Mahaloth, 550  
TexCat vf Mahaloth, 663  
TexCat vf Mahaloth, 802  
Askthepizzaguy vf Mahaloth, 814  
DiggitCamara vf Mahaloth, 996  
Astral Rejection:  
wevets vf Astral Rejection, 177  
DaphneBlack vf Astral Rejection, 225  
Chronos vf Astral Rejection, 237  
Idle Thoughts vf Astral Rejection, 532  
Chronos vf Astral Rejection, 550  
wevets vf Astral Rejection, 554  
Idle Thoughts vf Astral Rejection, 754  
DiggitCamara vf Astral Rejection, 809  
Askthepizzaguy vf Astral Rejection, 815  
Askthepizzaguy vf Astral Rejection, 893  
Idle Thoughts vf Astral Rejection, 1040  
Idle Thoughts vf Astral Rejection, 1109

Inner Stickler:  
wevets vf Inner Stickler, 177  
Askthepizzaguy vf Inner Stickler, 540  
Askthepizzaguy vf Inner Stickler, 724  
Idle Thoughts vf Inner Stickler, 1160[/spoiler]

Of our surviving players,

sinjin was voted for 3 times by two unique town players, and 0 times by known scum.

Darth Sensitive was voted for 6 times by four unique town players, and 1 time by known scum.

Rysto has not been voted for by any dead player.

gnarlycharlie has been voted for 4 times by three unique town players, and 2 times by known scum.

septimus has been voted for 7 times by three unique town players, and 2 times by known scum.

Mahaloth has been voted for 2 times by two unique town players, and 5 times by three unique scums.

Astral Rejection has been voted for 8 times by four unique town players, and 4 times by two unique scums.

Inner Stickler has been voted for 3 times by two unique town players, and 1 time by known scum.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1264 "2014-03-23T17:34:18Z")

</div>

EDIT: I missed one vote for Rysto, by TexCat. It came after the deadline and I glossed over it in my voting chart. I feel it’s a useless vote, analysis-wise, but still worth correcting my chart. I’m working on an analysis of this now.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1265 "2014-03-23T18:01:51Z")

</div>

Please note, this analysis completely disregards the _reason_ for a vote, which sometimes truly doesn’t matter. This is purely numbers from the voting chart, which is why I always make one.

My big takeaway: **Mahaloth is very likely town.** Scum have gone to a lot of effort to try to lynch him. I would also argue that this chart proves that I have a greater change of being town as well, but I’m not an unbiased source, so take this as you will. That being said, I will not vote for Mahaloth.

Next, **Rysto is incredibly suspicious.** He has flown under the radar and accrued no interest from almost any living or dead player, with the exception of TexCat, who I missed in my previous post. Of note, TexCat’s vote came after the deadline, and is largely meaningless.

**Scum were largely uninterested in Rysto, sinjin, Darth Sensitive, gnarlycharlie, septimus, and Inner Stickler.** Sinjin was not voted for by scum. Darth Sensitive was voted for by TexCat in a late-day six-way vote that made no effort to direct attention at any particular player. Septimus is pretty much the same story - the six-way vote, and another easily-walked-back vote in 260 showcasing a very weak case. Gnarlycharlie was also voted for in that six-way vote, but his TexCat vote seems slightly more dangerous. I doubt anyone would follow TexCat’s lead on septimus, but her vote for gnarlycharlie ‘feels’ a bit more substantial. This could go either way, but I’d lean slightly more scum on septimus than gnarly for this. And Inner Stickler’s scum vote comes from wevets very early in the game.

From this bit of info, I can come up with a ranking of who would be best to lynch, by combining everything I’ve gathered. Numbers are (unique surviving votes / unique dead town votes / unique known scum votes). I feel that the more scum votes a player has gotten, the less likely they are to be scum, and so I’ve ranked this list by the third number. Then, in ties, the player with fewer known town votes is preferred. The lower you get on this list, the more likely I think you are to being scum. Rysto is an aberration, based on how little he’s been discussed.

Mahaloth (6/2/5)  
Astral Rejection (7/8/4)  
gnarlycharlie (3/4/2)  
septimus (1/7/2)  
Inner Stickler (5/3/1)  
Darth Sensitive (7/6/1)  
sinjin (3/3/0)

Rysto (1/0/1): (and I still think that scum vote is useless)

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1266 "2014-03-23T18:04:01Z")

</div>

Hold on, I think I screwed up those numbers by pulling from the wrong list. Let me redo that, and then I’ll cast my votes accordingly. Sorry for how many posts this is in a row.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1267 "2014-03-23T18:17:57Z")

</div>

So! I see what I screwed up. I wrote (unique surviving votes / unique dead town votes / unique known scum votes), but the numbers are actually (total surviving votes / total dead town votes / total scum votes). That’s what I meant to do, I just labeled by chart wrong, and in glancing back realized the numbers didn’t match up. I think the chart is correct.

Anyway! From this chart, I believe Darth Sensitive and Inner Stickler are our two best bets for toDay. Darth Sensitive was largely ignored by scum, and has accrued a large number of votes from both known and unknown players. This, to me, represents true pro-town interest in seeing him swing. Inner Stickler is our next best bet, with similarly large interest in seeing him swing. Sinjin is also a good possibility (she’s the bottom of the chart, save Rysto), but her death will not yield as much information. Rysto would, unfortunately, yield us almost no information if he swings and is town. We have a mislynch (or two?) to spare, and I’d like to shed as much light on the gamestate as possible with our lynches until LyLo.

Assuming 1 remaining scum out of 8 players (and one recruitment), pretend today is Day 1.  
Day 1: mislynch (6-1), recruit (5-2), scum kill (4-2)  
Day 2: mislynch (3-2), nightkill (2-2)  
Day 3: tiebreaker, or scum victory.

Assuming 2 remaining scum out of 8 players (no recruitment), pretend today is Day 1.  
Day 1: mislynch (5-2), scum kill (4-2)  
Day 2: mislynch (3-2), scum kill (2-2)  
Day 3: tiebreaker, or scum victory.

I doubt there are two remaining scum and a recruitment. So, in both likely cases, we have two actual lynches (and a tie lynch) before the game is over, _unless a tied game state is a scum win_, which is very well might be. Otherwise, we have two lynches and a tiebreaker to win. Let’s hope it doesn’t down to that.

If we slaughter a scum and one remains, the math is  
Day 1: scum lynch (6-1), scum kill (5-1)  
Day 2: mislynch (4-1), scum kill (3-1)  
Day 3: mislymch (2-1), scum kill (1-1)  
Day 4: tie breaker, or scum victory.

Anyway, enough chatting from me.

**Vote Darth Sensitive.**  
**Vote Inner Stickler.**

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1268 "2014-03-23T18:23:13Z")

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Also, for the record, I really really _really_ hate recruitment. Assuming scum can recruit toDay, all of my work is much less useful toMorrow. If they could use it yesterDay, it’s even worse.

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**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1269 "2014-03-23T18:37:00Z")

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> [@Astral\_Rejection](#):
>
> Also, for the record, I really really _really_ hate recruitment. Assuming scum can recruit toDay, all of my work is much less useful toMorrow. If they could use it yesterDay, it’s even worse.

Dude, hammer it. Anything involved Town(which I think you are right now) can do to make it go quickly is smart, in my opinion. If they can recruit, which is likely, I think pulling the rug from them is smart.

To be fair, I almost think hammering would a good scum strategy too, for the same reasons.

Mostly, I just wan this game to move along. 😃

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1270 "2014-03-23T18:40:01Z")

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**Vote: Hammer**

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**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1271 "2014-03-23T19:31:55Z")

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Hey guys, I am alive and I’m catching up, so please don’t hammer and get me modkilled right away.

On the set-up: we started the game with 22 players. With 6 scum, that would have left us with 6 mislynches to find 6 scum. That’s a pretty heavy burden for town. Given the number of scum power roles tat we have seen so far (godfather, backup godfather, doctor avoider, poisoner) I find 5 scum far more likely, especially given that we have seen only three town power roles so far (mason, mason/doctor and investigative jack-of-all-trades).

My first instinct is to vote Inner over this post:

> [@Inner\_Stickler](#):
>
> What the fuck is up with the scum team? DB is still alive but Silver Jan is dead? What the hell.

Given the clue (which, of course, may have been false) that there is a “hidden” scum who doesn’t have access to the scum boards, the frustration in this post jumps out at me. I thought that not killing DB with the doctor already gone was a poor move by the scum myself, but I certainly wasn’t upset about it. Inner seems to have a different perspective on the matter though…

I’m not willing to put a vote down over this just yet, but that’s the direction that I’m leaning in. I am off to review Day 1 – the only Day our newly revealed scum players really participated in. Hopefully I do better this time around – I’m quite sure that my last review of Day 1 ends up being laughably wrong in light of the alignments revealed since.

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**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1272 "2014-03-23T19:32:48Z")

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Vote Count:

Inner Stickler (4): Mahaloth, sinjin, septimus, Astral Rejection  
sinjin (1): Inner Stickler  
Darth Sensitive (1): Astral Rejection

Hammer: Mahaloth, septimus

What is your hurry for me to vote for a hammer? We have 8 players left, 3 of which haven’t cast a vote yet. I’ll hammer when everyone has gotten a chance to vote.

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**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1273 "2014-03-23T20:06:02Z")

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> [@Inner\_Stickler](#):
>
> Also, barring evidence to the contrary, what the heck is the scum team getting up to that the godfather is running around doing the night kill?

Aaaaand, he did it again. Inner Stickler, you are spending far too much time angsting over the decisions that the scum are making. A townie should not be so invested in this.

**Vote Inner**

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**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1274 "2014-03-23T20:32:41Z")

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> [@Astral\_Rejection](#):
>
> Vote Count:
> 
> Inner Stickler (4): Mahaloth, sinjin, septimus, Astral Rejection  
> sinjin (1): Inner Stickler  
> Darth Sensitive (1): Astral Rejection
> 
> Hammer: Mahaloth, septimus
> 
> What is your hurry for me to vote for a hammer? We have 8 players left, 3 of which haven’t cast a vote yet. I’ll hammer when everyone has gotten a chance to vote.

I said so already. If you think I’m most scummy, vote me(I see you did now) and hammer it. As long as something happens soon, I’m happy.

Also, is that how you hammer?

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**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1275 "2014-03-23T23:52:30Z")

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Who are you responding to? I didn’t vote for you (I said I wouldn’t, in fact), and I haven’t hammered, I counted how many have.

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**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1276 "2014-03-23T23:53:56Z")

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I guess my use of orange is what’s throwing you. I just used the orange color to show who had voted for hammering. In hindsight, I see how that could be confusing.

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**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2014, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1277 "2014-03-24T00:05:02Z")

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> [@Astral\_Rejection](#):
>
> I guess my use of orange is what’s throwing you. I just used the orange color to show who had voted for hammering. In hindsight, I see how that could be confusing.

Ah, that’s it. Yeah, putting it in orange threw me. I thought it was a vote and a vote to hammer, which is not how it works. Anyway, I got it now.

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**Author:** ![Darth\_Sensitive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/58956e/32.png) [@Darth\_Sensitive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Sensitive)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2014, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1278 "2014-03-24T00:30:00Z")

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Hey - I’ve been Spring Breaking and March Madnessing. I’m getting back into the swing of real life though.

So we’ve got a 5/8 of surviving votes on **Inner**. Two votes for a hammer. Me and \*\*Gnarly \*\*are the only ones without votes, and I’m fixing that in this post.

I don’t have anything to add with the cases on **Inner**.  
**Rysto** - what made you stop voting **Astral**? You’ve made a total of five votes (2 Astral - day 1 and 3, 1 Texcat - day 3, 1 Pizza - day 4, 1 Inner - today, no vote day 2 or 5), and I couldn’t figure out why you pulled your attention away from Astral. I’ll be honest, it feels like you’re flying under the radar at a level that would make any Survivor winner proud - you have a single legit vote that’s been put on you all game - and that was a prod vote near the end of a day. I don’t think it’s good at all that you’ve come this far with no pressure on you.

**Vote Rysto**

**Gnarly** - why do you think it’s suspicious that someone would trust your clue stating that ties are broken using [random.org](http://random.org)?

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**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2014, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1279 "2014-03-24T01:32:55Z")

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> [@Darth\_Sensitive](#):
>
> **Rysto** - what made you stop voting **Astral**? You’ve made a total of five votes (2 Astral - day 1 and 3, 1 Texcat - day 3, 1 Pizza - day 4, 1 Inner - today, no vote day 2 or 5), and I couldn’t figure out why you pulled your attention away from Astral.

On Day 4, I felt that the case against pizza was stronger. Both he and Astral had similar voting records and the fact that TexCat refused to place a self-defence vote for him caught my eye.

Well, we all know how that went. After that, I lost confidence in my analysis of the vote record and decided that I needed to start looking elsewhere (I have no excuse for flaking yesterDay though). It looks like I was right to. Check out these Day 1 vote tallies:

\*\*Day 1 [Post 294](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17110476&postcount=294) (Daphne’s Claim) \*\*  
DaphneBlack - 6 votes - Askthepizzaguy (211), Astral Rejection (223), Inner Stickler (224), DiggitCamara (228), septimus (252), Johnny Bravo (291)  
Silver Jan - 4 votes - Astral Rejection (190), Askthepizzaguy (211), DaphneBlack (220), Captain Klutz (240)  
Astral Rejection - 3 votes - wevets (177), DaphneBlack (225), Chronos (237)  
Mahaloth - 2 votes - Chronos (104), sinjin (149)  
Askthepizzaguy - 2 votes - sinjin (149), Chronos (237)  
Idle Thoughts - 2 votes - wevets (177), Johnny Bravo (189)  
sinjin - 2 vote - Askthepizzaguy (151), dizzymrslizzy (274)  
Inner Stickler - 1 vote - wevets (177)  
Chronos - 1 vote - wevets (177)  
septimus - 2 vote - Daphne Black (220), TexCat (258)  
gnarlycharlie - 1 vote - TexCat (260)  
Scathach - 1 vote - TexCat (285)  
TexCat - 1 vote - Scathach (290)  
DiggitCamara - 1 vote - Johnny Bravo (291)

**Day 1 [Post 363](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17112619&postcount=363)**  
Texcat - 5 votes - Scathach (290), septimus (310), Silver Jan (318), dizzymrslizzy (343), gnarlycharlie (362)  
Silver Jan - 4 votes - Astral Rejection (190), Askthepizzaguy (211), Captain Klutz (240), Texcat (316)  
Astral Rejection - 4 votes - [color=red]wevets[/color] (177), Daphne Black (225), Chronos (237), Rysto (340)  
septimus - 3 votes - DaphneBlack (220), Texcat (258), Idle Thoughts (303)  
Mahaloth - 2 votes - Chronos (104), sinjin (149)  
Askthepizzaguy - 2 votes - sinjin (149), Chronos (237)  
sinjin - 2 votes - Askthepizzaguy (151), Dizzymrslizzy (274)  
Idle Thoughts - 2 votes - wevets (177), septimus (310)  
DaphneBlack - 2 votes - Askthpizzaguy (211), Inner Stickler (224)  
gnarlycharlie - 2 votes - Texcat (260), Darth Sensitive (296)  
scathach - 2 votes - Texcat (285), Darth Sensitive (296)  
Inner Stickler - 1 vote - wevets (177)  
Chronos - 1 vote - wevets (177)  
dizzymrslizzy - 1 vote - Silver Jan (309)  
Darth Sensitive - 1 vote - gnarlycharlie (362)  
DiggitCamara - 2 votes - Johnny Bravo (291), DaphneBlack (308)

**Day 1 [Post 475](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17119022&postcount=475)**  
Pleonast (6) - Chronos, LightFoot, Mahaloth, Darth Sensitive, Askthepizzaguy, Astral Rejection  
Astral Rejection (5) - wevets, Daphne Black, Chronos, Rysto, gnarlycharlie  
Texcat (5) - Scathach, septimus, dizzymrslizzy, gnarlycharlie, Pleonast  
Askthepizzaguy (4) - sinjin, Chronos, Inner Stickler, Pleonast  
dizzymrslizzy (4) - Silver Jan, Septimus, [del]TexCat[/del], DaphneBlack, Astral Rejection  
DiggitCamara (3) - DaphneBlack, Johnny Bravo, Askthepizzaguy  
Mahaloth (3) - Chronos, sinjin, Pleonast  
septimus (2) - Texcat, Idle Thoughts  
Silver Jan (2) - Askthepizzaguy, Captain Klutz  
Idle Thoughts (2) - wevets, septimus  
sinjin (2) – Askthepizzaguy, Dizzymrslizzy  
Chronos (2) - wevets, Pleonast  
LightFoot (2) - Astral Rejection, Pleonast  
Darth Sensitive (1) – gnarlycharlie  
gnarlycharlie (1) - Darth Sensitive  
Inner Stickler (1) - wevets  
Johnny Bravo (1) - Lightfoot

**Day 1 [Post 510](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17119461&postcount=510)**  
dizzymrslizzy (7) - Silver Jan, Septimus, DaphneBlack, Astral Rejection, Askthepizzaguy, Darth Sensitive, Texcat  
Pleonast (5) - Chronos, LightFoot, Mahaloth, Darth Sensitive, Astral Rejection  
Astral Rejection (5) - wevets, Chronos, Rysto, gnarlycharlie, septimus  
Texcat (5) - Scathach, septimus, dizzymrslizzy, gnarlycharlie, Pleonast  
Askthepizzaguy (5) - sinjin, Chronos, Inner Stickler, Pleonast, Darth Sensitive  
Mahaloth (3) - Chronos, sinjin, Pleonast  
DiggitCamara (2) - DaphneBlack, Johnny Bravo  
septimus (2) - Texcat, Idle Thoughts  
Idle Thoughts (2) - wevets, septimus  
Chronos (2) - wevets, Pleonast  
LightFoot (2) - Astral Rejection, Pleonast  
Darth Sensitive (1) – gnarlycharlie  
gnarlycharlie (1) - Darth Sensitive  
Inner Stickler (1) - wevets  
Johnny Bravo (1) - Lightfoot  
Silver Jan (1) - Captain Klutz  
sinjin (1) Dizzymrslizzy

**Day 1 [Final](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17119781&postcount=525)**  
dizzymrslizzy – 8 votes - Silver Jan (309), septimus (395), DaphneBlack (449), Astral Rejection (473), Askthepizzaguy (490), Darth Sensitive (495), Texcat (506), Captain Klutz (512)  
Texcat – 5 votes - Scathach (290), septimus (310), Pleonast (431), dizzymrslizzy (343), gnarlycharlie (362)  
Astral Rejection – 5 votes - wevets (177), septimus (496), Chronos (237), Rysto (340), gnarlycharlie (407)  
Askthepizzaguy – 5 votes - sinjin (149), Chronos (237), Inner Stickler (364), Pleonast (415), Darth Sensitive (495)  
Pleonast – 4 votes - Chronos (371), Lightfoot (376), Mahaloth (384), Darth Sensitive (432)  
Mahaloth – 3 votes - Chronos (104), sinjin (149), Pleonast (474)  
Lightfoot – 3 votes - Astral Rejection (440), Pleonast (474), Johnny Bravo (517)  
septimus – 2 votes - Texcat (258), Idle Thoughts (303)  
Chronos – 2 votes - wevets (177), Pleonast (468)  
DiggitCamara – 2 votes - Johnny Bravo (291), DaphneBlack (308)  
Idle Thoughts (1) - septimus  
Darth Sensitive (1) – gnarlycharlie  
gnarlycharlie (1) - Darth Sensitive  
Inner Stickler (1) - wevets  
Johnny Bravo (1) - Lightfoot  
Silver Jan (1) - Captain Klutz  
sinjin (1) Dizzymrslizzy

I’m having a hard time believing that scum, at one point, managed to have the **top 3** lynch contenders all be scum at once (although I admit the shift to dizzy gives me pause…). It does look like the scum were trying to get clever with their votes (especially the two scum on Chronos). If there is a toMorrow I’ll have to revisit this

> [@](#):
>
> I’ll be honest, it feels like you’re flying under the radar at a level that would make any Survivor winner proud - you have a single legit vote that’s been put on you all game - and that was a prod vote near the end of a day. I don’t think it’s good at all that you’ve come this far with no pressure on you.

This is nothing new. I’ve been lynched once in all the games that I’ve played, and that time it happened because I was 100% confirmed scum. I even survived and won in a game where I was confirmed scum! (ably assisted by a townie who forgot that town needs to vote as a bloc at LyLo)

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**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2014, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-baker-street-game-in-progress/680752/1280 "2014-03-24T14:10:03Z")

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Darth Sensitive & gnarlycharlie, where are you?

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