# Mafia: Conspiracy 2: The Cabal Strikes Back! \[Game Over\] **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 9, 2008, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324 "2008-06-09T14:52:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 124
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2462 "2008-08-13T18:35:37Z")
So I just took a little walk, had a Coke, argued with a biostatistician, and I feel much better now. And it occurs to me: This happens to me around this point in the game every time. I get wrapped up in powers, win conditions, trying to develop foolproof strategies, that I forget that Mafia is about motivation, first and foremost. People will act rationally, and in ways that benefit them. There are exceptions, but this is a pretty good rule. With that in mind, let’s look at NAF’s behavior today. He was looking likely to be lynched, but it was not a foregone conclusion - just look at yesterDay. So his actions were designed to achieve one of two conclusions: (1) To ensure that he _is_ lynched; or (2) To try to escape the noose again. #1 makes no sense if he is Cabal. If he’s a Wolf or Vampire trying to throw the win to the Cabal, then it does. Conversely, #2 makes the most sense if he’s Cabal. He has superficially appeared to be pursuing #1. But I don’t think he is. Since his claim of Vampire, he has continued taunting, analyzing, investigating, discussing. The vote swung his way quickly after his claim; if all he wanted was to be lynched, why wouldn’t he just shut up, Iago-style, and get his way? Instead, he sows chaos, plants seeds of doubt - _why does he keep emphasizing what an easy lynch he is?_ we ask ourselves. _Does he want to be lynched? Is he a Wolf screwing us over?_. We rethink things, and maybe we let him live. If he’s a Wolf trying to screw us over, that’s the _worst_ thing that could happen, because now he has no chance of winning AND his screw-over attempt has failed. Most significantly, he claimed Vampire. _Vampire_. Everyone, think for a moment, and ask yourself a simple question: if you were scum in this game right now, and you _wanted_ to be lynched, what would _you_ claim? There is one faction that we’d be certain to lynch, no matter what: Cabal. If NAF is a Wolf and really wanted to screw us over, all he’d have had to do was say, “Well, it looks like I’m going down, so good job Town, I really am Cabal. But you’ll never find the last one, muah ha ha.” We’d have lynched him in a heartbeat. He’s a smart guy. He would have figured this out on his own. But he chose a claim that would make it _less_, not _more_, likely that we’d kill him. Because he wants to live. Because he’s Cabal. My vote stands. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2463 "2008-08-13T18:43:33Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] So I just took a little walk, had a Coke, argued with a biostatistician, and I feel much better now. And it occurs to me: This happens to me around this point in the game every time. I get wrapped up in powers, win conditions, trying to develop foolproof strategies, that I forget that Mafia is about motivation, first and foremost. People will act rationally, and in ways that benefit them. There are exceptions, but this is a pretty good rule. With that in mind, let’s look at NAF’s behavior today. He was looking likely to be lynched, but it was not a foregone conclusion - just look at yesterDay. So his actions were designed to achieve one of two conclusions: (1) To ensure that he _is_ lynched; or (2) To try to escape the noose again. #1 makes no sense if he is Cabal. If he’s a Wolf or Vampire trying to throw the win to the Cabal, then it does. Conversely, #2 makes the most sense if he’s Cabal. He has superficially appeared to be pursuing #1. But I don’t think he is. Since his claim of Vampire, he has continued taunting, analyzing, investigating, discussing. The vote swung his way quickly after his claim; if all he wanted was to be lynched, why wouldn’t he just shut up, Iago-style, and get his way? Instead, he sows chaos, plants seeds of doubt - _why does he keep emphasizing what an easy lynch he is?_ we ask ourselves. _Does he want to be lynched? Is he a Wolf screwing us over?_. We rethink things, and maybe we let him live. If he’s a Wolf trying to screw us over, that’s the _worst_ thing that could happen, because now he has no chance of winning AND his screw-over attempt has failed. Most significantly, he claimed Vampire. _Vampire_. Everyone, think for a moment, and ask yourself a simple question: if you were scum in this game right now, and you _wanted_ to be lynched, what would _you_ claim? There is one faction that we’d be certain to lynch, no matter what: Cabal. If NAF is a Wolf and really wanted to screw us over, all he’d have had to do was say, “Well, it looks like I’m going down, so good job Town, I really am Cabal. But you’ll never find the last one, muah ha ha.” We’d have lynched him in a heartbeat. He’s a smart guy. He would have figured this out on his own. But he chose a claim that would make it _less_, not _more_, likely that we’d kill him. Because he wants to live. Because he’s Cabal. My vote stands. [/QUOTE] Boy are you going to be red when you find out that I am a Vampire. Nice shot at analysis though. Look at me, I’m a shiny penny, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2464 "2008-08-13T18:45:45Z")
[QUOTE=NAF1138] Boy are you going to be red when you find out that I am a Vampire. [/QUOTE] Tell you what. If you’re a vampire, I will buy you as many of the beverage of your choice that you can drink should we ever meet in real life. ---
**Author:** ![MHaye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bbe5ce/32.png) [@MHaye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MHaye)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2465 "2008-08-13T18:48:04Z")
There are five people in the pool of unknowns; five people that we have no handle on the alignment of, and who must be harbouring the remaining non-Town players. There are (by my estimate) between three and five remaining nonTown, including **Drain Bead** , thus two to four of those players are nonTown… Thus we have a good chance of a productive lynch by firing blind. When you add the fact that if we lynch a Scotsman we get instant confirmation of the role, reduce the number of unknown players and increase the number of confirmed Townspeople, it’s very difficult to go wrong. Also, if **NAF** thinks that claiming Vampire will get him out of the noose, he needs to think again. Lynching the Vampire reduces the rate of attrition of players, meaning that we have more time to identify the remaining Cabalist(s). It’s therefore a net benefit to Town. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2466 "2008-08-13T18:51:18Z")
Swooshing way back to something else. [QUOTE=Hawkeyeop] There is a scenario where Omi isn’t lying and Koldanar gets killed though. The cabal could block Omi. [/QUOTE] Nope. I just re-read the rules, confirming the various win conditions. The rules explicitly say that a secret power is _not_ blockable. So if Omi is telling the truth, Koldanar will survive the coming Night no matter what. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2467 "2008-08-13T18:52:52Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] Tell you what. If you’re a vampire, I will buy you as many of the beverage of your choice that you can drink should we ever meet in real life. [/QUOTE] I hope you are right. I wouldn’t want to offer a potential vampire free drinks. That could get messy. ---
**Author:** ![Koldanar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/dbc845/32.png) [@Koldanar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koldanar)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2468 "2008-08-13T18:53:04Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] Swooshing way back to something else. Nope. I just re-read the rules, confirming the various win conditions. The rules explicitly say that a secret power is _not_ blockable. So if Omi is telling the truth, Koldanar will survive the coming Night no matter what. [/QUOTE] Good point. Like I said, I’m on board no matter what, as I can’t see me NOT trying to investigate someone 🙂 T-minus 15 minutes till we get Pollux results. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2469 "2008-08-13T19:05:52Z")
Day Seven Final Vote Count Only votes posted before 12 noon PT Wed Aug 13 were counted. Voting ended at Post 2467. Ten Votes **NAF1138** ++Hawkeyeop (2348) ++Koldanar (2386) --Koldanar (2386) ++storyteller0910 (2408) ++Koldanar (2410) ++One and Only Wanderers (2411) ++Zsofia (2417) ++MHaye (2424) ++cckerberos (2426) ++Drain Bead (2428) ++ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (2434) ++Omi no Kami (2438) Two Votes **Omi no Kami** ++peekercpa (2323) ++Zsofia (2336) ++One and Only Wanderers (2346) ++NAF1138 (2354) --One and Only Wanderers (2411) --Zsofia (2417) Zero Votes **storyteller0910** ++peekercpa (2323) --peekercpa (2323) **Zsofia** ++Omi no Kami (2345) ++MHaye (2367) ++Drain Bead (2374) ++ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (2389) --ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (2301) ++ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (2394) --MHaye (2424) --Drain Bead (2428) --ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (2434) --Omi no Kami (2438) ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2470 "2008-08-13T19:09:13Z")
Another Day of debate ends, this time with a clear mandate: **NAF1138** swings from the gallows. Only time will tell if it was the correct choice. Night Seven has now begun and will end on Friday August 15. The crowd stands impatiently, as if waiting for something. Ah, yes, the duskly new report: **Pollux Oil** was a member of the Cabal, and **Hal Briston** was a Werewolf. ---
**Author:** ![Zsofia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7bcc69/32.png) [@Zsofia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zsofia)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2471 "2008-08-13T19:10:01Z")
See? I didn’t screw us over yesterDay. Well, I come back from my interview and I am still very happy with my vote. I like storyteller’s analysis there. There is a patron telling my colleague here that he thinks Hillary Clinton had OJ’s wife killed and covered it up with Whitewater. I wonder if his whole life is like a Mafia game inside his head? They interviewed me for almost an hour, which is good news, right? Usually it hasn’t taken that long. Also, it wasn’t stated in the description that it’s that branch’s children’s librarian (of course, all branch librarians do a ton of other stuff, too, but this is the primary person for children’s programming and services) and I can’t claim much experience with that, but I did do some footwork prior to looking into branch jobs by researching children’s services and asking the main children’s librarian for help, so that probably helped. The thing is, I’m super-excited about the job now and you know how that’s just setting yourself up for disappointment. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2472 "2008-08-13T19:11:54Z")
HA! The last couple of Days have been REALLY fun. Thanks for the laughs guys. See you in the afterlife. Spoilers please Pleo? ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2473 "2008-08-13T19:12:20Z")
Uh… I may owe NAF a beer, or whatever. ---
**Author:** ![cckerberos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@cckerberos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cckerberos)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2474 "2008-08-13T19:13:10Z")
That confirms **peeker** , right? ---
**Author:** ![MHaye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bbe5ce/32.png) [@MHaye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MHaye)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2475 "2008-08-13T19:14:54Z")
[QUOTE=NAF1138] HA! The last couple of Days have been REALLY fun. Thanks for the laughs guys. See you in the afterlife. Spoilers please Pleo? [/QUOTE] Farewell NAF. For this game anyway. I hope the wedding goes smoothly, and that it is the start of a long and happy marriage. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2476 "2008-08-13T19:17:10Z")
[QUOTE=MHaye] I hope the wedding goes smoothly, and that it is the start of a long and happy marriage. [/QUOTE] Echoed. ---
**Author:** ![Zsofia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7bcc69/32.png) [@Zsofia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zsofia)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2477 "2008-08-13T19:18:28Z")
Yeah, **NAF** , however it turns out, good game and congratulations! ---
**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2478 "2008-08-13T19:23:45Z")
Good luck with the wedding, NAF! Send me some cake! ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2479 "2008-08-13T19:26:11Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] Echoed. [/QUOTE] Echoed from beyond the grave…ooooooOOOOOOooooooh! ---
**Author:** ![cckerberos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@cckerberos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cckerberos)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2480 "2008-08-13T19:28:18Z")
That’s four confirmed Cabal dead. Given their win condition, I can’t imagine there being more than one more left out there. We’ve also got 7 confirmed Townies, 1 confirmed Wolf, and only 3 unknowns left. Can Town still lose at this point? Looking at the numbers, I think we may be set even if there are 2 night kills left we win. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2008, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324/2481 "2008-08-13T19:31:44Z")
[QUOTE=cckerberos] That’s four confirmed Cabal dead. Given their win condition, I can’t imagine there being more than one more left out there. We’ve also got 7 confirmed Townies, 1 confirmed Wolf, and only 3 unknowns left. Can Town still lose at this point? Looking at the numbers, I think we may be set even if there are 2 night kills left we win. [/QUOTE] No, we can still lose. If we lynch the remaining non-Cabal scum before we lynch the remaining Caballero, and if Drain Bead is killed somehow, then we’re toast. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324.md?page=123) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-conspiracy-2-the-cabal-strikes-back-game-over/452324.md?page=125)