# Mafia: Evil Dead - DAY/NIGHT THREE

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-evil-dead-day-night-three/479484>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [January 1, 2009, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-evil-dead-day-night-three/479484 "2009-01-01T18:31:06Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 23

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**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\
**Post date:** [January 2, 2009, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-evil-dead-day-night-three/479484/23 "2009-01-02T12:56:19Z")

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Without wishing to seem unoriginal, I too lost internet connection yesterday. Happily, I’m now in work.

> [@Mafia: Evil Dead - DAY/NIGHT TWO](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-evil-dead-day-night-two/478862/253):
>
> **Hawk** didn’t mention **NAF** or himself.

Man, that’s embarrassing. Thanks for cleaning up the numbers.  
To business. \*\*Hawk’s \*\*death a) Does nothing to confirm **NAF**. b) Suggests that the scum have found a good defence (assuming \*\*NAF \*\*is town). They’re going to kill a townie every night (unless they randomly hit the last PFK) and thus “shrink the pool” in any case. So they lose nothing by killing whoever \*\*NAF \*\*has tested.

My first thought was that the answer was simple - \*\*NAF \*\*doesn’t reveal his results every Night. The advantages of this are a) we’re not giving anything away and b) it gives any protective role a better chance of guessing right. The downsides are a) \*\*NAF \*\*may feel tempted to defend somebody he’s cleared who comes under suspicion, thus outing them; b) he may get killed before he can reveal. That would be a pity.

So it looks like we’ve got two options: in one, \*\*NAF \*\*reveals every Night, and any doctor plays WIFOM with the scum between him/herself, \*\*NAF \*\*and the growing number of revealees. That way we get the information out for definite, but have a higher chance of the scum negating our advantage. In option two, \*\*NAF \*\*keeps schtum, the doctor’s WIFOM game is simplified to fewer options (and thus has a better chance of succeeding) and we \*either \*get \*all \*the information at a time we can use it, or we get _none at all_.

Perhaps somebody with a mathematical bent could try to run some numbers on which of these scenarios offers a better chance of success. But I suspect it comes down to people’s appetite for risk. In which case, it’s really down to \*\*NAF \*\*how he wants to play it.

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