# Mafia: Evil Dead - DAY/NIGHT TWO

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-evil-dead-day-night-two/478862>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [December 27, 2008, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-evil-dead-day-night-two/478862 "2008-12-27T18:15:53Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 253

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**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\
**Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-evil-dead-day-night-two/478862/253 "2008-12-31T18:46:24Z")

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> [@amrussell](#):
>
> Assuming six starting scum, we’re looking at 4 left alive now, with 16 town. (Going by **Hawk** ’s test post above.) With the SK dead, we’re looking at losing 3 people per D/N cycle, based on Night One. If we don’t find scum, our numbers go: 16/4; 13/4; 10/4; 7/4. **(Someone please check this!)**. One strategy would be to give \*\*NAF \*\*a couple of days to investigate people, and then lynch him to confirm them all - well before LyLo. This would also give him some time to find a scum for us to test him with.

**Hawk** didn’t mention **NAF** or himself. We got 22 players now, three kills Day/Night is okay (scum no longer has their strongman either (double Night right?)). If the the second kill is from a non-compulsory vigilante, he can skip killing to delay LyLo.  
So assuming three fully alive scum left, worst case it goes from Day Three _20/3.4_, D4: _17/3.4_, D5: _14/3.4_, D6: _11/3.4_, D8: _8/3.4_, D9: _5/3.4_ (LyLo)\*.

So worst case Lynch or Lose is at Day Eight (even if there are four scum left) - is that how good our start was?  
So if these numbers correct, if we want to do confirm lynch of **NAF** , Day six seems to be the safest Day (unless we get more/less Night Kills or kill scum).

\*) If I continue with town lynching scum at LyLo (and only scum Night kill):  
Day Nine: _4/2.6_ (LyLo), D10: _3/1.8_ (LyLo), D11: _2/5x0.2_ town win?  
Basically the one-fifth alive puts the minimum players at the last day at four instead of three, if there is no way to completely kill them off.

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