# Mafia: Goontown \[Game Over\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [September 22, 2018, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754 "2018-09-22T22:54:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/201 "2018-10-03T14:02:49Z")
**unvote Mahaloth** Because it seems to me that his defense vs. Biotop’s arguments is more typical of his Town self than his Scum self. Since I have nothing better to do: snoe: 1 (snfaulkner) Prof. Pepperwinkle: 2 (Knowed Out, Johnny Bravo) snfaulkner: 1 (Stranger on a Train) Biotop: 1 (snoe) Knowed Out: 1 (Sunny Daze) Stranger on a Train: 1 (Mahaloth) Mahaloth: 1 (Biotop) ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/202 "2018-10-03T14:03:50Z")
:smack: …which puts ME in the lead. ---
**Author:** ![Knowed\_Out](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/knowed_out/32/7380_2.png) [@Knowed\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knowed_Out)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/203 "2018-10-03T15:22:46Z")
My usual garbage pickup for Mario’s had a lot of people-sized trash bags. A guy with green hair that looked like grass blades told me it doesn’t exist and I don’t need to make this stop no more. ---
**Author:** ![Hi\_Neighbor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hi_neighbor/32/494_2.png) [@Hi\_Neighbor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hi_Neighbor)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/204 "2018-10-03T15:24:56Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > The only one to not vote is Hi, Neighbor! There’s still plenty of time. I’m undecided as of this moment. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/205 "2018-10-03T16:29:20Z")
> [@Hi\_Neighbor](#): > > There’s still plenty of time. I’m undecided as of this moment. I’m sticking with **snfaulkner** for now even though he has strategically ramped his post count sufficient to be safe unless I can get at least two people to back my position. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/206 "2018-10-03T16:35:00Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Oh yeah. I forgot I said that. I was a bit out of it earlier. > > The butterzone theory…renamed beerzone by hookerchemical because we all like beer better than butter. > > Anyway, it relates to lynch the lurker, which has proven to not be any better than chance. > > Instead I’ve posited that from the d1, and maaaaybe d2, post counts, there is a higher than average chance of hitting scum in the bottom half through to a third or so players in that list. So for 10 players, the beerzone would be 6, 7, 8 lowest posters in that list. There is a lot of truthiness to it, but I have yet to be motivated enough to ever run the numbers from a large number of games. And weird games with weird powers/mechanics throw that off. As does super low participation all around such that there are a lot of ties in the lower regions of the post count > > Without knowing the true effectiveness of this theory, I only really look at the beerzone as like a near last resort to resolve who I should vote for. Clarify this please. 6,7,8 positions? Or the bottom 6 or 8 or so players, which would exclude just you and **Biotop**. I could see scum posting just enough to be present, but not enough to be visible, if that makes sense. I tend to agree with the position that on Day 1, absent other data points, we’re looking at a 20% chance of lynching scum. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/207 "2018-10-03T16:43:20Z")
I’m not clear about the logic if this. Since I haven’t played before I can’t reference past history, but it would seem like scum would want to post enough to both be above the median so as to not get taken out randomly but more importantly to stir the pot and get people accusing each other. Am I missing something? Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Knowed\_Out](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/knowed_out/32/7380_2.png) [@Knowed\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knowed_Out)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/208 "2018-10-03T17:14:08Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > I’m not clear about the logic if this. Since I haven’t played before I can’t reference past history, but it would seem like scum would want to post enough to both be above the median so as to not get taken out randomly but more importantly to stir the pot and get people accusing each other. Am I missing something? > > Stranger From what I gather from this [quick guide](https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Quick_Guide_to_Mafia), they’ve got some serious statistical thinking going on about how players act to try to divert others from thinking they’re scum. It’s a measure of paranoia. The veterans are trying to decipher hidden meanings, find a pattern of post count, and sweating bullets that they might be wrong. So use lies that worked on your mother, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/209 "2018-10-03T17:22:53Z")
Pretty much. 😃 I don’t know how _serious_ our statistical thinking is. Day 1, as mentioned, is a crap shoot. We’re trying to find a place in the pond to fish in, absent any other data. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/210 "2018-10-03T17:40:24Z")
Yeah, but given the participation rules, I would think that scum would want to keep their post count high because even in the beginning there is a 1:5 chance of randomly being selected, and that is just going to go up as players exit the game. I haven’t made a Markov model but I suspect that low scum participation is going to favor the townies, and the likelihood of sussing out scum from their posts in the first couple of rounds is probably low because of the lack of priors. I gather the participation rule is not standard play so I don’t know how much I’d take out of that guide, but the obvious strategy would be to call out “suspicious” behavior and get players to start suspecting one another over innocuous statements or personal tics, like “Isn’t it suspect how **Stranger On A Train** uses all these movie and Shakespeare quotes? Only a scum would try to avoid posting in his own words!” Once you have a couple of rounds down you can start to look at patterns, but of course that that point with ten players you’re halfway through the game. Anyway, metatextual discussion aside, I’m here to kick ass and chew bubblegum, and I’m all out of bubblegum. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Knowed\_Out](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/knowed_out/32/7380_2.png) [@Knowed\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knowed_Out)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/211 "2018-10-03T17:49:40Z")
I’m guessing next game we won’t be able to use the “but we’re just ignorant newbies who don’t know what we’re doing” line any more. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/212 "2018-10-03T18:11:20Z")
The participation rule is not standard at all, but it’s not hugely hinky. Low-volume posters tend to get lynched because, even if they’re town, their \*\*value \*\*to town is low. It’s better to mislynch a quiet townie than a loud one, so long as the loud townie is genuinely trying. > [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > the obvious strategy would be to call out “suspicious” behavior and get players to start suspecting one another over innocuous statements or personal tics, like "Isn’t it suspect how **Stranger On A Train** uses all these movie and Shakespeare quotes? Sure. But remember that the behavior is not actually suspicious to the scum. Scum have to invent reasons to find players suspicious because they have perfect knowledge. As the game wears on, we’ll be able to look back at arguments that have been made against known townies and try to figure out who has been genuine and who has been disingenuous. Mafia is like 95% hindsight. This is why it’s important, super important, to always play genuinely as a townie. It’s okay to lead the charge and mislynch somebody so long as your arguments are soundly based on the available knowledge. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/213 "2018-10-03T18:29:47Z")
It is always good to remember Scum do not have to invent reasons when they bus a teammate. Even in a small game, do not discount bussing. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/214 "2018-10-03T18:37:49Z")
For an example of a player being lynched solely for disingenuous play, check out [Day 3](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=817263) of the last big game on these boards. It starts at post #509 and goes on for the rest of the day. Idle Thoughts was on the chopping block to be modkilled for nonparticipation. He popped up and asked to be modkilled. When this was met with approval (by me :D), he turned around and said that he was going to keep playing just to piss town off. He ended up more or less getting policy lynched at that point by a very frustrated town, and of course scum was happy to follow along. In my later analyses (and oof did I do a lot of analysis in that game) I basically had to count voting for Idle on that day as a null tell. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/215 "2018-10-03T20:28:51Z")
**Idle** ’s tantrum was epic and apparently normal game play for him. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Hi\_Neighbor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hi_neighbor/32/494_2.png) [@Hi\_Neighbor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hi_Neighbor)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/216 "2018-10-03T20:38:45Z")
Hmm, 1,158 posts for a single day. That can’t be normal, right? Like, that must have been a pretty hardcore game. ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/217 "2018-10-03T20:54:15Z")
We now have less that 24 hours left in the Day. My reads are based solely on my gut: Prof. Pepperwinkle: eminently Town. Knowed Out & Hi, Neighbor: newbies. I don’t vote newbies on D1 without substantial proof. Mahaloth: leaning Town right now. snoe: heavily leaning Town because he’s doing something like actual scumhunting. Biotop: is always Neutral. I can never ever tell. snfaulkner: leaning Town at the moment. Stranger on the Train: Leaning Scum, but only for gut reasons. Johnny Bravo: leaning Scum as well. Sunny Daze: Neutral. [vote]Stranger On The Train[/vote] ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/218 "2018-10-03T20:55:00Z")
It was insane. Fun, but insane. ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/219 "2018-10-03T20:55:15Z")
Oh, right. No vote tags. **Vote Stranger on the Train** ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2018, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754/220 "2018-10-03T20:59:02Z")
> [@Hi\_Neighbor](#): > > Hmm, 1,158 posts for a single day. That can’t be normal, right? Like, that must have been a pretty hardcore game. It was utterly ludicrous and I will never again participate in a game of that magnitude. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-goontown-game-over/821754.md?page=12)