# Mafia: Mutiny on the SS Incorrigible **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 14, 2011, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676 "2011-03-14T17:51:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/81 "2011-03-17T19:18:17Z")
That’s not what I said. I said you do have information from last game, therefore plenty of experience with the scum motivation to get the rank positions. You said: > [@](#): > > I was just thinking about that. With 16 players and 4 scum, there’s a 31% chance that a scum is lurking in the officers section. So … as if your comment about scum wanting those slots came from the odds that you were “just thinking” about. And I doubt that’s wholly true, since you already had exposure from the last game as to what the scum motivations are. I’m not about to vote for you based on this one word “so” instead of something like “also”, but I did notice it. ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/82 "2011-03-17T19:36:23Z")
Checking in to confirm my reception of my role PM. ---
**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/83 "2011-03-17T19:37:15Z")
Confirmed that I’m a Loyal crew member. Is my SDMB clock still on EST and the Day started half an hour ago and none of those votes counted right? ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/84 "2011-03-17T19:43:17Z")
Man, I wish I put that much thought into things I say, NP. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/85 "2011-03-17T19:43:27Z")
> [@Natlaw](#): > > Is my SDMB clock still on EST and the Day started half an hour ago and none of those votes counted right? Eh, it’s close enough. I’ll post a vote count later today. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/86 "2011-03-17T19:43:30Z")
> [@Natlaw](#): > > Confirmed that I’m a Loyal crew member. > > Is my SDMB clock still on EST and the Day started half an hour ago and none of those votes counted right? Oh, well as long as you’re Loyal, that’s cool. See if you were **Loyal** or _Loyal_ or just plain Loyal, I’d have been suspicious. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/87 "2011-03-17T19:48:25Z")
> [@Natlaw](#): > > Confirmed that I’m a Loyal crew member. > > Is my SDMB clock still on EST and the Day started half an hour ago and none of those votes counted right? I see what you did there. I am also a Loyal crew member. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/88 "2011-03-17T19:49:31Z")
> [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > Oh, well as long as you’re Loyal, that’s cool. See if you were **Loyal** or _Loyal_ or just plain Loyal, I’d have been suspicious. Quick question Idle…are you serious here? I can’t tell if you are joking or not, and the answer is going to change my opinion of you greatly. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/89 "2011-03-17T19:56:18Z")
I’m being sarcastic, since in the OP rules, it says: > [@](#): > > Roles > > Most crew members are Loyal. Their role PM is: > > You are a Loyal crew member. You win when all Mutinous crew members are dead. This leads me to believe that someone posting the fact that their “Loyal” was underlined is a null tell (because anyone could say that). Mine was underlined too. So what? Nothing Natlaw posted tells me he’s Town just because he knew to underline the word Loyal because it was already shown to be that way. : p ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/90 "2011-03-17T19:58:28Z")
> [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > I’m being sarcastic, since in the OP rules, it says: > > This leads me to believe that someone posting the fact that their “Loyal” was underlined is a null tell (because anyone could say that). > Mine was underlined too. So what? Nothing Natlaw posted tells me he’s Town just because he knew to underline the word Loyal because it was already shown to be that way. : p Ok, good. Just checking. That’s the answer I wanted to hear, but stuff like sarcasm doesn’t always read well. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/91 "2011-03-17T20:06:11Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > Man, I wish I put that much thought into things I say, NP. Heh. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/92 "2011-03-17T20:07:49Z")
On the off chance they might count, **unvote all**. Keeping track of four votes is going to be confusing enough without starting out the day with joke ones. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/93 "2011-03-17T20:37:19Z")
> [@Hal\_Briston](#): > > Vote: **fluiddruid** , **TexCat** , **peekercpa** and **Mahaloth** > > Reasoning: Someone of rank is likely scum, and it ain’t me. > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > I was just thinking about that. With 16 players and 4 scum, there’s a 31% chance that a scum is lurking in the officers section. So the scum are not only going to be trying to eliminate townies with powers, they’re going to try to place their co-conspirators in positions of power without being obvious about it. Hal? Are you trying to promote your co-conspirators? If so, I’d say you were being pretty obvious about it. 🙂 I’ve always been bad at probabilities. Is it like a 31% chance of rain? What happens the other 69% of the time? Does that mean there is a 69% chance of scum lurking outside of the officers section? I’d intuitively would have thought it was closer to 99%. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/94 "2011-03-17T20:38:30Z")
Ooops! Forgot to preview, forgot to bleach. Sorry, mod. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/95 "2011-03-17T20:46:50Z")
There are 16 players and 4 scum. The odds of any one rank 1-16 being held by a scum player is 1/16. So the odds of one scum existing in one of the first 5 ranks is 1/16+1/16+1/16+1/16+1/16 or 5/16 or .3125. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/96 "2011-03-17T20:58:36Z")
Not that I really care since I wasn’t going to worry about it anyway, but I think the math is wrong. More or less what should be looked at is the chance of all five top ranked players being town. That’s only about 18%: captain being town: 12 options of 16, 3/4 XO also being town. 11 options left out of 15, 11/15 Security also being town. 10 of 14, 5/7 Engineer also, 9/13 doctor also, 8/12 or 2/3 Probability of all those things being true: 3/4_11/15_5/7_9/13_2/3 = 0.18 or 18%. By inference the probability that at least one of those things is not true (at least one officer is of the mafia) is 1-0.18=0.82 or 82%. So it’s quite likely the top roles are already infiltrated. ---
**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/97 "2011-03-17T22:14:26Z")
> [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > Oh, well as long as you’re Loyal, that’s cool. See if you were **Loyal** or _Loyal_ or just plain Loyal, I’d have been suspicious. The way the underline merges with the y makes Loyal much more badass then the alternatives. I’ll admit I settled for this instead of a Day One first post unprovoked claim in honor of Pleonast hosting this game as I just don’t see the advantage of it. Anyway, **glowacks** and **Crackrat** , do to prefer to be referred to as a he or she or some spinach thing Scuba\_Ben (I think) had going last time? With a Captain who can’t decide between Kirk or Brannigan I think you’ll be sligthly safer as males 🆒. I’m trying to see **peeker** as [Kaylee](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHFuzbeTPew) but he’s unfortunately he’s probably more like [Scotty](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4k5VzDBOcpM&feature=player_detailpage#t=25s). (that should use up my fluff quota for the game :p) ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/98 "2011-03-17T22:16:14Z")
I am a male of the species. Not telling what species though. Has the game officially started? I don’t see any end date posted for Day 1. ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/99 "2011-03-17T22:19:35Z")
> [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > Not that I really care since I wasn’t going to worry about it anyway, but I think the math is wrong. More or less what should be looked at is the chance of all five top ranked players being town. That’s only about 18%: > > captain being town: 12 options of 16, 3/4 > XO also being town. 11 options left out of 15, 11/15 > Security also being town. 10 of 14, 5/7 > Engineer also, 9/13 > doctor also, 8/12 or 2/3 > > Probability of all those things being true: 3/4_11/15_5/7_9/13_2/3 = 0.18 or 18%. > > By inference the probability that at least one of those things is not true (at least one officer is of the mafia) is 1-0.18=0.82 or 82%. > > So it’s quite likely the top roles are already infiltrated. I concur with this reasoning. Although I have not gone through and done the arithmetic to verify the exact number it sounds pretty close to what I’d expect. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2011, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676/100 "2011-03-17T22:21:54Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Roles will PM’d out sometime tonight or tomorrow morning. Day One will officially start 12 noon PT (3pm ET) Thu Mar 17 and end 12 noon PT (3pm ET) Thu Mar 24. If you want to get into character, you can consider it to now be Night Zero, before anyone knows their role or alignment. Here you go glowacks. Day 1 has started and will end a week from today. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-mutiny-on-the-ss-incorrigible/574676.md?page=6)