# Mafia Reunion - Day 10 **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 14, 2017, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191 "2017-03-14T20:51:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/1 "2017-03-14T20:51:38Z")
“This must be coming close to an end”, thought LightFoot. After all the game had been going on since January. “How is this not finished yet? How has town lynched so few scum? This game is crazy!” It was at this point that LightFoot realized that these were not normal LightFoot thoughts. These seem to be thoughts that were being placed in the head of LightFoot. And why was LightFoot talking exclusively in the third person now? “Oh crap” thought LightFoot “I’m in the Opening Color. That’s never good” And, of course, LightFoot was right, it wasn’t ever good. When town convened that morning around the town square they found LightFoots body had been torn to bits. “Bummer” They all generically thought. “Who will hand out the permits now?” **LightFoot - The Zoning Inspector (town)** is dead. I guess it’s a free for all as far as new construction projects. Good luck! ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/2 "2017-03-14T20:53:06Z")
Well damn. Farewell Lightfoot. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/3 "2017-03-14T20:59:12Z")
At least she doesn’t need to claim now. Farewell, dear bureaucrat! ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/4 "2017-03-14T21:06:46Z")
> [@Mafia Reunion - Day 9](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/289): > > Maybe it’s my relative inexperience or just general lack of sleuthing skill, but it doesn’t feel that awesome to me. All i have to contribute is my brain, and right now that feels like very little. Look at it this way - when you’re a power role, you have to be careful. You don’t want to draw too much attention to yourself because you don’t want to get killed too quickly. You have to balance when to claim, whether to breadcrumb, all that stuff. And that’s fun, sure. But when you’re vanilla town, you don’t have to worry about **jack all** except playing your best game. If you get mislynched, well, it wasn’t a power role. If you get nightkilled? That’s an honor. The earlier you get offed by scum, the more you scared them. Power roles are glamorous because you get to claim and often make big plays for town, but VT are the heart and soul of the game. ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/5 "2017-03-14T21:10:39Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Look at it this way - when you’re a power role, you have to be careful. You don’t want to draw too much attention to yourself because you don’t want to get killed too quickly. You have to balance when to claim, whether to breadcrumb, all that stuff. And that’s fun, sure. But when you’re vanilla town, you don’t have to worry about **jack all** except playing your best game. If you get mislynched, well, it wasn’t a power role. If you get nightkilled? That’s an honor. The earlier you get offed by scum, the more you scared them. > > Power roles are glamorous because you get to claim and often make big plays for town, but VT are the heart and soul of the game. I can get that. I can. But my “best game” seems worthless right about now. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/6 "2017-03-14T21:20:36Z")
> [@raventhief](#): > > I can get that. I can. But my “best game” seems worthless right about now. Careful you don’t play the “poor widdle me, I suck and have no power” card too much lest you start to seem scummy with the over acting…:dubious: As town, who of the non-confirmed pool do you think we should be eyeballing for the lynch today? ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/7 "2017-03-14T21:23:22Z")
BAH THESE MONSTERS ARE MAKING NO SENSE! Get them! ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/8 "2017-03-14T21:27:17Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Careful you don’t play the “poor widdle me, I suck and have no power” card too much lest you start to seem scummy with the over acting…:dubious: > > As town, who of the non-confirmed pool do you think we should be eyeballing for the lynch today? Lol i am not acting, just generally blue lately. And it’s leading into the game. I don’t like how aggressive nanook was with lightfoot yesterDay. It struck me oddly. ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/9 "2017-03-14T21:28:20Z")
> [@raventhief](#): > > Lol i am not acting, just generally blue lately. And it’s leading into the game. I don’t like how aggressive nanook was with lightfoot yesterDay. It struck me oddly. Leaking not leading. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/10 "2017-03-14T21:29:11Z")
When Lightfoot made her “if I’m alive” comment in the last thread, I almost made a post about how shocked I would be if the wolves decided to kill her. They \*\*knew \*\*that she wasn’t mafia, and killing a townie out of the unconfirmed pool seems like a really low value move compared to taking out a fully confirmed power role or shooting for mafia. Anyway, I want to head something off at the pass in case bufftabby managed to convince any townies yesterDay. **Why is Johnny Bravo not Mafia?** I hope by now I’ve at least proved my non-wolf cred, but bufftabby made a pretty big deal out of painting me as a mafioso. I’m not going to go over all of her different arguments one by one as I think they were all pretty specious, but I’d be happy to answer any specific questions. My pre-emptive defense boils down to one thing. I’m still alive. If I was mafia, I’d be dead. Now it’s generally a bad idea to play the “why would scum do that?” game, but I think this holds water here. As bufftabby very carefully documented yesterday, she first became suspicious of me on D1 when she decided that I wasn’t concerned about the daykill - only the nightkill. This would, of course, make me mafia. Go back and read [this post of mine.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20055252&postcount=132) Bufftabby voted Hal Briston, and then the wolves killed him that very night. That was D6. Bufftabby supposedly thought I was scum going all the way back to D1. She brought that case up again and again and again. If she really, honestly thought I was a wolf, she had a lot of days to make that case to her buddies. Here are all of the nightkills. > [@](#): > > 1. Suburban Plankton – Nightkiled N1 (1) Homicide Detective > 2. Colby11 – Nightkilled N1 – Vanilla Town > 3. Drain Bead - Nightkilled N2 - Leprechaun > 4. AngeloftheNorth - Nightkilled N3 - Vanilla Town > 5. Toejam - Nightkilled N3 - Doctor Seward - [Killed by Mafia Hitman Hal Briston (MHaye)] > 6. BillMc - Nightkilled N4 - Whelp > 7. Sunny Daze - Nightkilled N4 - Informant > 8. Hockey Monkey - Nightkilled N4 - Consigliere - [Killed by Wolves (MHaye)] > 9. [del]Winston Smith[/del]Paulwhoisaghost - Nightkilled N5 - Vanilla Town - [Killed by Wolves (MHaye)] > 10. EnderW24 - Nightkilled N6 - Understudy (Investigative Journalist) > 11. Hal Briston - Nightkilled N6 - Hitman > 12. HookerChemical - Nightkilled N7 - Vanilla Town > 13. Guiri - Nightkilled N8 - Godfather And, of course, Lightfoot. There are at least a few wolf kills in there that would certainly have been better off going at a strongly suspected mafia. \*\*Especially \*\*last night, for the reasons I mentioned above. If they thought I was mafia, why the hell would they have shot a **known** (to them) townie out of the pool? Now, this doesn’t actually prove that I’m town. But I do hope it proves that bufftabby was straight lying when she said she suspected me of being mafia. If she did, I’d be dead. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/11 "2017-03-14T21:42:06Z")
\*\*Here is my list of living players, in alphabetical order. Please let me know if I am wrong about this. You lucky bastards have lived through 9 weeks of this game. \*\* **Biotop Captain Klutz hawkeyeop Johnny Bravo Koldanar Lakai MHaye Nanook of the North Shore Plumpudding Raventhief Scathach sinjin snfaulkner Texcat Zeriel** ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/12 "2017-03-14T21:57:51Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > When Lightfoot made her “if I’m alive” comment in the last thread, I almost made a post about how shocked I would be if the wolves decided to kill her. They \*\*knew \*\*that she wasn’t mafia, and killing a townie out of the unconfirmed pool seems like a really low value move compared to taking out a fully confirmed power role or shooting for mafia. > > Anyway, I want to head something off at the pass in case bufftabby managed to convince any townies yesterDay. > > **Why is Johnny Bravo not Mafia?** > > I hope by now I’ve at least proved my non-wolf cred, but bufftabby made a pretty big deal out of painting me as a mafioso. I’m not going to go over all of her different arguments one by one as I think they were all pretty specious, but I’d be happy to answer any specific questions. My pre-emptive defense boils down to one thing. > > I’m still alive. If I was mafia, I’d be dead. > > Now it’s generally a bad idea to play the “why would scum do that?” game, but I think this holds water here. > > As bufftabby very carefully documented yesterday, she first became suspicious of me on D1 when she decided that I wasn’t concerned about the daykill - only the nightkill. This would, of course, make me mafia. > > Go back and read [this post of mine.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20055252&postcount=132) > > Bufftabby voted Hal Briston, and then the wolves killed him that very night. That was D6. > > Bufftabby supposedly thought I was scum going all the way back to D1. She brought that case up again and again and again. If she really, honestly thought I was a wolf, she had a lot of days to make that case to her buddies. > > Here are all of the nightkills. > > And, of course, Lightfoot. There are at least a few wolf kills in there that would certainly have been better off going at a strongly suspected mafia. \*\*Especially \*\*last night, for the reasons I mentioned above. If they thought I was mafia, why the hell would they have shot a **known** (to them) townie out of the pool? > > Now, this doesn’t actually prove that I’m town. But I do hope it proves that bufftabby was straight lying when she said she suspected me of being mafia. If she did, I’d be dead. Ok, kinda the same :dubious: I’m throwing at Raventhief. Kinda getting the “Oh, Look at how I’m ever so towny” vibe. Anywho, same question to you. As a towny, who are you thinking we should eyeball from the unconfirmed pool today for the murderin? ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/13 "2017-03-14T22:17:22Z")
:smack:Now I feel stupid because I was all set to vote for Lightfoot today. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/14 "2017-03-14T22:27:26Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Ok, kinda the same :dubious: I’m throwing at Raventhief. Kinda getting the “Oh, Look at how I’m ever so towny” vibe. If defending myself against attacks from a known scum is giving you that vibe, I dunno what to tell you. > [@](#): > > Anywho, same question to you. As a towny, who are you thinking we should eyeball from the unconfirmed pool today for the murderin? > [@Mafia Reunion - Day 9](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/280): > > Here is some of the meat I really want to chew on toMorrow (not a wolf softclaim). > > Johnny Bravo > Plumpudding > Raventhief > Nanook of the North Shore > [del]Bufftabby[/del] > > These are the players who have claimed vanilla town so far. There are only three vanilla townies total, so one person in this list, **at minimum** , is scum of one flavor or the other. I know it’s not me, so that gives me a pretty small pool to look into. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/15 "2017-03-14T22:37:07Z")
Ok, so you’d rather shoot in this pool: Johnny Bravo Plumpudding Raventhief Nanook of the North Shore Of which one is definitely scum, if not more. Versus this pool: Biotop hawkeyeop Johnny Bravo Nanook of the North Shore Plumpudding Raventhief Scathach Texcat Zeriel Which probably has all 5 scum. Mininum of 1/4 odds in the top pool. Almost certainly 5/9 odds in the bottom. Hmmmm… ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/16 "2017-03-14T22:52:02Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Ok, so you’d rather shoot in this pool: > > Johnny Bravo > Plumpudding > Raventhief > Nanook of the North Shore > > Of which one is definitely scum, if not more. Versus this pool: > > Biotop > hawkeyeop > Johnny Bravo > Nanook of the North Shore > Plumpudding > Raventhief > Scathach > Texcat > Zeriel > > Which probably has all 5 scum. > > Mininum of 1/4 odds in the top pool. > Almost certainly 5/9 odds in the bottom. > > Hmmmm… Imma-try-n-do some braining here… Flitering out the top lost from the bottom gives us: Biotop hawkeyeop Scathach Texcat Zeriel If there is only 1 scum in the top list, that leaves 4 in this new list out of 5…That seems like our best shot, yes? Someone point out my flaws. Also, Patsy, I think it is time to chime in. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/17 "2017-03-14T23:00:05Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Hmmmm… Well, it’s 1/3 odds for me because I don’t have to shoot at myself. You’re right that there are better random odds in the bigger pool, but I think we have enough information that we don’t have to be random right now. I’d like to look closely at each of those three players toDay and see where that leads. If it leads to one of the players in the larger pool, that’s fine too. If town wants to flip a dice for the lynch, then the patsy can claim and we can do it with 5/8 odds. That’s honestly not bad at all. But if we’re going to sleuth, then it seems like the smart way is to start in the smaller pool and work out. > [@](#): > > If there is only 1 scum in the top list, that leaves 4 in this new list out of 5…That seems like our best shot, yes? Someone point out my flaws. Your flaw is presuming that there’s only 1 scum in the top list. There is a **minimum** of one scum in the top list. There could be four scum in the top list and one in the bottom. All we know is that the top list has a minimum of one and the bottom list has a maximum of four. Unless the patsy has false claimed. In which… > [@](#): > > Also, Patsy, I think it is time to chime in. Agreed. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/18 "2017-03-14T23:07:52Z")
Masons, I’d like to hear both of your thoughtses here more than anyone. Mhaye, any new results you’d like to share? ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/19 "2017-03-14T23:19:52Z")
**Are there any modkills pending?** ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/20 "2017-03-14T23:23:40Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > **Are there any modkills pending?** None specifically. It will depend on how people participate today. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191.md?page=2)