# Mafia Reunion - Day 10 **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 14, 2017, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191 "2017-03-14T20:51:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![MHaye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bbe5ce/32.png) [@MHaye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MHaye)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/21 "2017-03-14T23:57:32Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Mhaye, any new results you’d like to share? Unfortunately, my target was left alone both by Day and Night. So it yielded nothing. Still, at least I wasn’t roleblocked. I watched one of the unconfirmed pool. I’m not surprised that the Wolves shot into the unconfirmed pool, as the unconfirmed pool are where the Mafia are hiding, and it’s the Mafia that Wolves need to kill right now. But I am surprised at Lightfoot’s death because we know she was the one player in the unconfirmed pool who was not Mafia. ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/22 "2017-03-15T00:24:59Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Imma-try-n-do some braining here… > > Flitering out the top lost from the bottom gives us: > > Biotop > hawkeyeop > Scathach > Texcat > Zeriel > > If there is only 1 scum in the top list, that leaves 4 in this new list out of 5…That seems like our best shot, yes? Someone point out my flaws. > > Also, Patsy, I think it is time to chime in. The patsy would be an idiot to claim right now. The only power left is the kill if lynched. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/23 "2017-03-15T00:36:02Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > The patsy would be an idiot to claim right now. The only power left is the kill if lynched. Forget using that. The real power now is in shrinking the lynch pool/expanding the confirmed pool. I actually _hope_ there is a counterclaim to the patsy. We lynch one of them and if we’re wrong, the patsy blows up the other scumclaimant. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/24 "2017-03-15T00:39:51Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > The real power now is in shrinking the lynch pool/expanding the confirmed pool. A thousand times this. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/25 "2017-03-15T01:19:01Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Forget using that. The real power now is in shrinking the lynch pool/expanding the confirmed pool. I actually _hope_ there is a counterclaim to the patsy. We lynch one of them and if we’re wrong, the patsy blows up the other scumclaimant. Lets ponder the benefits of that power for a second. If we lynch the patsy, we get to have a town player control another kill before another round of two scum kills. That might actually be beneficial to the town. If the patsy claims and reduces the pool, and the town miss-lynches, then we lose a day and suffer two kills. It could mean three dead town in a week without a scum kill. Whereas with a patsy miss-lynch, we have a chance of softening the blow somewhat. That might be more beneficial to the town than reducing the pool now. If the patsy gets miss-lynched , he or she can shoot into the same pool of players that would exist if the patsy claimed. I can see the logic of the patsy not claiming. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/26 "2017-03-15T01:31:27Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > If the patsy claims and reduces the pool, and the town miss-lynches, then we lose a day and suffer two kills. It could mean three dead town in a week without a scum kill. Whereas with a patsy miss-lynch, we have a chance of softening the blow somewhat. Except that the patsy could also kill a townie, which could mean **four** dead town in the cycle. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/27 "2017-03-15T01:31:49Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > Lets ponder the benefits of that power for a second. If we lynch the patsy, we get to have a town player control another kill before another round of two scum kills. That might actually be beneficial to the town. > > If the patsy claims and reduces the pool, and the town miss-lynches, then we lose a day and suffer two kills. It could mean three dead town in a week without a scum kill. Whereas with a patsy miss-lynch, we have a chance of softening the blow somewhat. > > That might be more beneficial to the town than reducing the pool now. If the patsy gets miss-lynched , he or she can shoot into the same pool of players that would exist if the patsy claimed. I can see the logic of the patsy not claiming. Using my bottom list from upthread. Right now it is 5/9 to hit scum with 1/9 chance of hitting the patsy. If we hit them, then they get 5/8 chance to hit scum. Just by the numbers, that looks ok. But if they were to speak up, we’d be at 5/8 already, AND they can participate in sleuthing without nearly as much trust issues. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/28 "2017-03-15T02:49:34Z")
Not that it really matters at this point, but I just checked who posted in D/N9 and Lightfoot was the highest poster. Which seems to be the wolves’ MO, whether it’s on purpose or just coincidental. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/29 "2017-03-15T02:51:24Z")
I just can’t help thinking how ironic it is that back on Night 0 over two months ago we were debating whether the Patsy should claim outright at the start of the game, and here we are on Day 10 and the Patsy is the only remaining unclaimed Town role. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/30 "2017-03-15T02:55:46Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > I just can’t help thinking how ironic it is that back on Night 0 over two months ago we were debating whether the Patsy should claim outright at the start of the game, and here we are on Day 10 and the Patsy is the only remaining unclaimed Town role. Watch they end up being the last one standing, still unclaimed. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/31 "2017-03-15T03:11:33Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Ok, so you’d rather shoot in this pool: > > Johnny Bravo > Plumpudding > Raventhief > Nanook of the North Shore > > Of which one is definitely scum, if not more. Versus this pool: > > Biotop > hawkeyeop > Johnny Bravo > Nanook of the North Shore > Plumpudding > Raventhief > Scathach > Texcat > Zeriel > > Which probably has all 5 scum. > > Mininum of 1/4 odds in the top pool. > Almost certainly 5/9 odds in the bottoms. > > Hmmmm… I can’t think of any reason why you would think there are fewer scum in the top pool than the bottom pool. I think scum is more likely to try and get their claim in early. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/32 "2017-03-15T03:17:49Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > I can’t think of any reason why you would think there are fewer scum in the top pool than the bottom pool. I think scum is more likely to try and get their claim in early. You can always think “Nate’s an idiot” as a reason. But really though, that statement makes no sense. Even if all four of the top pool were scum, there are still 5 in the bottom pool since the bottom contains the entirety of the top. ---
**Author:** ![sinjin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@sinjin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinjin)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/33 "2017-03-15T04:23:22Z")
**Vote hawkeyeop** For having PIS about the Lutha and claiming it came from **Koldanar**. I knew nothing about the other Lutha how did **hawkeyeop**? ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/34 "2017-03-15T04:29:05Z")
> [@sinjin](#): > > **Vote hawkeyeop** > > For having PIS about the Lutha and claiming it came from **Koldanar**. I knew nothing about the other Lutha how did **hawkeyeop**? I’ve been confused by this theory of yours for a while now. At first I thought you just misread something, but now that you are full on voting for him, maybe I misread something. Can you point me to where it is that you think he is displaying this so-called PIS? It makes no sense to me that any of the scum would have any knowledge of Lutha. Or are you claiming he is some other 3rd party? ---
**Author:** ![sinjin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@sinjin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinjin)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/35 "2017-03-15T05:37:53Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > I’ve been confused by this theory of yours for a while now. At first I thought you just misread something, but now that you are full on voting for him, maybe I misread something. Can you point me to where it is that you think he is displaying this so-called PIS? It makes no sense to me that any of the scum would have any knowledge of Lutha. Or are you claiming he is some other 3rd party? > [@Mafia Reunion - Day 9](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/68): > > If anything, your claim makes me feel even stronger that Koldanar is a Cultist. He shared at least two bits of information (The role name of the serial killer, the fact only two cultists had a number associated with them) that I wouldn’t expect scum to know. This post. \*\*Koldanar \*\*only knew the role name of the serial killer because he had the switch to \*\*GLaDos \*\*which had nothing to do with his role. And where did the fact that only two cultist had a number associated with them come from? ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/36 "2017-03-15T05:45:34Z")
> [@sinjin](#): > > This post. \*\*Koldanar \*\*only knew the role name of the serial killer because he had the switch to \*\*GLaDos \*\*which had nothing to do with his role. And where did the fact that only two cultist had a number associated with them come from? I assumed he got it from the claims of the 1st and 2nd deacon, like the rest of us. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/37 "2017-03-15T05:48:51Z")
1st and 2nd deacons claimed, we all assumed there would be 3 4 and 5. Then the rest claimed and none of them had numbers, right? I’m not trying to say hawkeyeop isn’t scum, but I don’t think your reason makes any sense. ---
**Author:** ![sinjin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@sinjin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinjin)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/38 "2017-03-15T05:52:06Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > I assumed he got it from the claims of the 1st and 2nd deacon, like the rest of us. How do you assume that? What about the 5th Lutha who had not claimed yet? They could have been the 3rd deacon. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/39 "2017-03-15T06:12:44Z")
> [@sinjin](#): > > How do you assume that? What about the 5th Lutha who had not claimed yet? They could have been the 3rd deacon. I can assume lots of things. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/40 "2017-03-15T06:14:24Z")
> [@sinjin](#): > > How do you assume that? What about the 5th Lutha who had not claimed yet? They could have been the 3rd deacon. But seriously, even if it’s PIS like you say, are you saying scums were given this info about lutha? OR that he’s some other weird 3rd party? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191.md?page=3)