# Mafia Reunion Day 12 **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 26, 2017, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100 "2017-03-26T21:46:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2017, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/81 "2017-03-28T21:12:20Z")
And obviously, **vote hawkeyeop** ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2017, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/82 "2017-03-28T21:41:35Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > I said mostly. I stayed out of the early Patsy claim discussion. When we reached the late days, I was more aggressive in pushing against a mass claim, because I thought it was against the best interest of town. That included posts on the Patsy, but I was against other town roles claiming as well. I was pushing for a mass claim in the late game because it seemed obviously pro town given that there were no real power roles left and a mass claim meant there was less places to hide since this is a fully open game (apart from third parties). ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2017, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/83 "2017-03-28T22:49:38Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > The plan only works if town lynches a patsy. Town only lynches a patsy if there are two **viable** patsy claims **and** if the blackmail plan is delivered by a confessed mafia (who obviously cannot also be the patsy). Okay, that makes sense. But it means their plan has very long odds against working. Not only does the Patsy have to be mislynched, even though lutha doesn’t know who it is, but lutha then need to agree to the redirect. Alternatively (if not for the double false claim), we would now be looking at 4 confirmed non scum and 5 unknowns, that include 2 hidden scum. To me, that looks like better odds. Still mafia thought otherwise ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2017, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/84 "2017-03-28T22:54:42Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > I explained why I claimed when I did, but to provide a little more info of that Day specifically, it was my 2nd post of the day. My first post was to clarify how people were left in the game, as I had generally lost track. > > The reason I wanted to know was so I could do the math do figure out if their was any scenario in which a surprise Patsy could be useful. I couldn’t think of any, so I claimed. In your claim, you said > [@Mafia Reunion: Day Eleven](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/43): > > However, with the wolves gone, mafia will know the identity of all remaining town, so failing to claim is no longer depriving them of any information. So I agree there is no reason not to claim at this point. You knew the wolves were gone at the start of the Day. You then waited a full 2 days before claiming. Did it really take you that long to “do the math do figure out if their was any scenario in which a surprise Patsy could be useful”? Oh, and I would like to see your working. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2017, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/85 "2017-03-28T23:52:54Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Okay, folks! Johnny is coming at you with a whole new analysis! > > I wanted to look back at the patsy claim discussion. I looked at all the currently unconfirmed players (minus myself because I posted the most about it and it would have added a ton more work), and also added in Texcat because she was heavily involved. > > Here’s what I found. As always, stuff like this involves a lot of ctrl+F for keywords, so I may have missed stuff. > > **Day 9** > > Hawkeye #36 - says the patsy AND the mason have no particular value in claiming. > > Texcat #39 - The patsy absolutely under no circumstance should claim. > > Hawkeye #40 - “what Texcat said,” is suspicious of Johnny Bravo for pushing the mass claim. > > Hawkeye #50 - the patsy is unlikely to be counterclaimed. > > Texcat #196 - still doesn’t understand the push for claims. > > Hawkeye #197 - How will a patsy claim help now? Bufftabby is going to be lynched. > > Hawkeye #203 - Why worry today? It’s not useful to town right now and provides information to scum. > > Biotop #264 - isn’t it funny how the patsy is still alive? And how badly stuff has been going for town but town is going to win no matter what? > > Biotop #273 - town is going to win no matter what, but if we give them a “road map” with an extra claim, maybe town won’t win after all. > > Biotop #276 - no advantage whatsoever to a full claim right now. To clarify: Day 9 Hawkeye #36 - Hawkeyeop said “The remaining Mason and Patsy have no particular value to town other than they can mostly self-confirm” Day 9 Hawkeye #197 - that is actually #198 Day 9 Biotop #276 - he actually said “We can know Lightfoot is telling the truth if she simply claims her exact role. I already feel pretty good about her. But there is no advantage I can see to not fully claiming now. Why would Scum care whether she is Patsy or ZI? What possible Scum power is left to block?” This is a fair bit different to “no advantage whatsoever to a full claim right now.” Also, include Day 9 Biotop #224 - “Our roles are the last piece of information we have that Scum does not have. Why are we giving them away for little benefit?” **Johnny** , I’m a bit concerned that your summary of Day 9 Biotop #276 was incorrect. How did you summarise it so badly? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2017, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/86 "2017-03-28T23:59:15Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > Well originally I thought I was the only power remaining (i.e. the killed if lynched thing) so I thought I could rely on my super powers of always coming under suspicion and getting lynched, claim when under pressure and then if I got lynched anyway use my counterkill on someone on my bandwagon. > > As you can see that worked out brilliantly. > > Later in the game though I was getting cold feet - I quoted the posts in my claim but to recap, I started canvassing for a claim. No one really seemed to be going for it though so I sat tight. Those posts where you were canvassing for a claim were way back on Day 7. Many players continued to push for a claim through subsequent Days, and all the other power roles claimed. Why did you still hold back? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/87 "2017-03-29T00:08:17Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > I was pushing for a mass claim in the late game because it seemed obviously pro town given that there were no real power roles left and a mass claim meant there was less places to hide since this is a fully open game (apart from third parties). Where in the late game were you pushing for a mass claim? ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/88 "2017-03-29T00:08:23Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > In your claim, you said > > You knew the wolves were gone at the start of the Day. You then waited a full 2 days before claiming. Did it really take you that long to “do the math do figure out if their was any scenario in which a surprise Patsy could be useful”? Oh, and I would like to see your working. No, it took me that long to have time to write up a post summarize my game-play . I didn’t keep the work, but basically I was trying to game out scenarios where the Lutha joined the mafia and voted for town members during the day to figure out if there was any situation where a patsy revenge kill would make a difference. I couldn’t find any. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/89 "2017-03-29T00:41:52Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > **Johnny** , I’m a bit concerned that your summary of Day 9 Biotop #276 was incorrect. How did you summarise it so badly? Eh, it was an awful lot of skimming to paraphrase. Looks like I glossed over the “not.” You’re right, he’s saying there that there is no advantage to NOT claiming. So I’m glad you caught my mistake, because this is really weird in context. In D9#276, he says there’s no advantage to not claiming. But in D9#224 (good catch), D9#273, and D10#152, he’s against claims. The inconsistency here just bolsters my argument. ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/90 "2017-03-29T00:59:44Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > Where in the late game were you pushing for a mass claim? Was that not the late game? I was always pro mass claim, what is late game to you? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/91 "2017-03-29T01:06:09Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > I didn’t keep the work, but basically I was trying to game out scenarios where the Lutha joined the mafia and voted for town members during the day to figure out if there was any situation where a patsy revenge kill would make a difference. I couldn’t find any. [:dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20083816&postcount=11) ^------- this is a link to my post - D11#11. In that post, I worked out the math for a situation where lutha would join the mafia, vote for town, and how the patsy kill could lose the game for us. It’s the one that started with “dear patsy.” Which means it was addressed to you. Except that you spent two days trying to come up with ways that the patsy revenge kill could effect town if lutha joined mafia and couldn’t come up with anything? Your first post in the day was D11#16. Five posts after mine. I know you’re going to say that you were looking for cases where a “surprise patsy would be useful,” but that’s not what you’re saying up in the quoted bit. See hawkeye, here’s the thing. You have, at multiple points through the game, promised to do analysis and have rarely had anything to show for it. I called you out on at least one occasion because you smudged me and I wanted you to show your work. It was when you said that you wanted to look at me (and others) because I was posting a bunch but hadn’t been killed. I encouraged you to look into me. You never did. You did eventually do some analysis on one high-volume player, but only after I called you out again. Now you’re claiming to have done a bunch of work, but you have nothing to show for it either. Promising to do analysis and then not following through is a scum tell. Yes, people get busy, but it’s still a scum tell. Saying that you’ve done work and not having anything to show is a scum tell. Forgetting that somebody addressed a post directly to you wherein they did analysis that you supposedly spent several days working on? Scum tell. And despite the fact that you’re totally content, as the patsy, with being lynched today and revenge-killing Scathach, you’ve yet to make a pre-mortem case against who you think the final scum will be. Just a vague leaning for Biotop but not strong enough to consider lynching him today. **vote hawkeyeop** @ **Captain Klutz** : I will change my vote if you tell me to, but enough is too much. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/92 "2017-03-29T01:09:48Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > Was that not the late game? I was always pro mass claim, what is late game to you? D10#22 - “the patsy would be an idiot to claim right now. The only power left is the kill if lynched.” This does not make Johnny Bravo happy, seeing as how he is vigorously defending you via the transitive(?) property. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/93 "2017-03-29T02:15:34Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > Was that not the late game? I was always pro mass claim, what is late game to you? **Scathach** , I also don’t recall you ever being pro-mass claim. Would you please point to the post(s) I am missing. Also, would you kindly explain why you have not posted since Sunday despite the obvious confusion we were having determining the validity of your counterclaim. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/94 "2017-03-29T04:01:00Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Eh, it was an awful lot of skimming to paraphrase. Looks like I glossed over the “not.” You’re right, he’s saying there that there is no advantage to NOT claiming. > > So I’m glad you caught my mistake, because this is really weird in context. > > In D9#276, he says there’s no advantage to not claiming. > > But in D9#224 (good catch), D9#273, and D10#152, he’s against claims. > > The inconsistency here just bolsters my argument. In post Day 9, #276 I was specifically talking about\*\* Lightfoot\*\*. \*\*Lightfoot \*\*had already claimed one of the two remaining power roles. She was either Zoning Inspector or Patsy. In post Day 9 #275, \*\*Captain Klutz \*\*argues that we do not know for sure whether to believe \*\*Lightfoot \*\*or not. It was up to the other power to claim, and if then there was a third claim we would know one of them was lying. Otherwise the two claims would verify each other. I was opposed to mass claim because I believed it gave a road map for Scum to kill Town power. If a power was in danger of mislynch they could then simply claim and prevent the mislynch. Otherwise, what was the advantage? But at this point **Lightfoot** ’s partial claim did not seem likely to be false, and her making a full claim would prevent the other power from having to claim as was being asked. If **Lightfoot** was indeed lying, her full claim could be countered without revealing both other powers. Better for her to go ahead and full claim. \*\*Lightfoot \*\* outed herself as a Town power role and was that night killed for it. She had been confirmed as non-Mafia. She had not disclosed her full role. But the wolves killed her anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/95 "2017-03-29T04:34:35Z")
> [@Plumpudding](#): > > @Biotop > > Okay, this is meta: > Something that has nagged me since early game, and this may just be me, is that many of your votes seem simple, easy. You don’t vote easy, you think, you analyse and you seemingly dread to place a vote as town and you pour everything out. I have a gut feel about you, you’re a great scum, and player in general, and you’re difficult to pin down. Right now, I’d expect town Biotop to try to puzzle this situation out, for example. You’d consider every angle, post every thought, try to get feedback and solve this. Instead you seem overly optimistic, instead of trying to come up with solutions you’re coming up with additional obstacles and ploys benefiting scum. Your “lynch me, I’ll prove you wrong!”-ploy sounds like empty posturing to me. > > I guess all of this is vague, my gut usually is, but I know I’m town, I believe Johnny Bravo is town – He’s been playing a solid townie game all game, especially late game – and I believe Raventhief is town, beginning with her having no idea how the Hitman/Outrider roles work together with me N1(?). > > A question: Why do you believe Raventhief is town? Have you already explained that and I missed something? > > That leaves you as the last scum. > > Other than that, it would be great to hear from Scathach before EOD! **Plumpudding** , it’s great that you think I’m such a skilled analytical player. I indeed do enjoy in-depth analysis and wringing my hands over votes. That’s much of the fun of this game for me. But there is this thing called “real life” that’s about job and family and friends and personal issues. Real life has a way of interfering with Mafia play, especially in a game of this size. I have tried to post something in every real day of this game. I missed a few, but I tried. You and \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*have seen fit to build a case against me, not for my play in this game, but instead because I was highly analytical in other games, both as Scum and Town. You cannot both be Mafia, so one of you really believes it. If \*\*raventhief \*\*is Scum then you both believe it. And that seems unlikely. You know what else I like about **raventhief**? She volunteered to go in with me to diffuse the possible \*\*Cookies \*\*bomb. That would be a surprising play for a relative Mafia newcomer in this large game with her supposedly playing her first time as Scum. If she did it kudos to her. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/96 "2017-03-29T05:54:34Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Three cultists have been daykilled. Mafia appears to have been planning this for a while. > > If we accepts that they’ve been planning this, then it also stands to reason that they planned this patsy business as well. I noticed that hawkeye and Texcat’s claims were very close to one another. > > If the plan has always been to confuse things to try and engineer a patsy lynch (and force the cult to redirect), then it makes sense that a scum hawkeye would claim so as to let Texcat counterclaim. > > Meanwhile, Biotop (who I think is scum) backed up hawkeyeop immediately after his claim but gave nothing substantive. He gave equally non-substantive approval for your post which predicted hawkeyeop as town and plumpudding as scum. Just general vague approval. > > This last bit is pure WIFOM and should be taken with a big grain of salt, but they put in the order to kill MHaye, who basically didn’t play yesterday. You’re the one making cases and you’re the one who’s been keeping the vote records updated. You’re the more dangerous townie right now. Unless you’re completely wrong. > > Even without that hammer rule, town is going to have to follow the lead of the only confirmed townie and follow his vote completely or we risk losing. Yes, I was a bit surprised to still be alive. Being completely wrong is a possibility, as I have a history of being 100% certain while also being wrong. But there is another side to this coin. Perhaps the question is, not why was I left alive, but why was **MHaye** killed? At the end of Day 10, he made this observation: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day 10](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/137): > > Evening all. > > I’m not doing very well Mafia hunting Today. > > I have to admit that most of Today I’ve felt that Johnny Bravo was a potential Mafia suspect. The main reason is that, a couple of times Today, he’s been discussing Mafia data and talked about how there are two Mafiate votes unaccounted for. > > There are three Mafia. > > The second instance was in [post=20073095]D10.098[/post], in the penultimate bullet point. The first seems to have run away. I’ll post it if I find it. > > Back in post [post=20073131]D10.100[/post]we see Johnny repeat a pattern of “I want to fimd a Mafiate” while placing a vote on someone he thinks has a good chance of being a Wolf. This is reminiscent of several of his anti-Cult votes, but has the advantage of being aimed at an alleged scumball. > > One of the things that caught my eye was in [post=20066497]post D10.010[/post], where Johnny is arguing that he is not Mafia. He says, in closing: -But he overlooks one thing. > > Bufftabby was not the Alpha Wolf. > > She may have been arguing for a Johnny kill for all 8 Nights she was alive, but if the Alpha Wolf wanted to kill someone else, that player would be the one killed. Consequently Johnny’s last point carries no weight. > > That being said, the vote leaders are Zeriel 7 and TexCat 5. I have had a vague and unsubstantiated feeling that TexCat is scum most of the game, but I suspect thgat a large part of it is… > > wait for it … > > [spoiler]a grudge. > > It goes back to her role as Ra’s Al Ghul the Serial Killer in Storyteller’s Arkham Revisited game I referred to a few times. Even though she helped us win.[/spoiler] > > As for Zeriel, he seems under suspicion for low participation, so I’ll pass on a vote for him. > > Vote Johnny Bravo. > > I’ll be watching robots bashing each other to bits for the next while. Note where he says that Johnny has been discussing Mafia data and talked about how there are two Mafiate votes unaccounted for, when there are actually three Mafia. Johnny’s reply was as follows: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day 10](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/138): > > That’s a rough typo, I’ll admit. I don’t know if I just counted the red names in the deceased list and counted Hal twice or what. > > I’m not sure about the rest of it though. I’ve been spending more time looking for wolves because we have more data for going after wolves. We’ve never lynched a Mafia so we don’t have voting records for those. > > And yeah, bufftabby isn’t the alpha, but there are some questionable wolf kills. They knew for certain that Lightfoot wasn’t Mafia, but they killed her over somebody who at least one of them was apparently convinced I was the enemy? This is some occam’s Razor stuff. > > Anyway, there are three kills and at least one reveal between now and when voting starts back up. You’re more or less king townie for now, so if you want to drive the train there’s not much I can do but keep making cases for after my reveal. We’ll see what happens come Dawn So this seems to be both a typo AND a case of miscounting. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/97 "2017-03-29T06:03:18Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by Scathach > > Was that not the late game? I was always pro mass claim, what is late game to you? > > **Scathach** , I also don’t recall you ever being pro-mass claim. Would you please point to the post(s) I am missing. > > Also, would you kindly explain why you have not posted since Sunday despite the obvious confusion we were having determining the validity of your counterclaim. Ditto what **Biotop** asked. Day 10 was certainly later in the game. This is what you said on Day 10: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day 10](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/22): > > The patsy would be an idiot to claim right now. The only power left is the kill if lynched. To me, that does not look pro mass claim. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/98 "2017-03-29T06:12:04Z")
If we lynch scum toDay it is basically game over: we will be down to just one scum and have an extra confirmed town. That gives us lots of time to lynch through the unknowns. Lynching scum toDay is a town/lutha win. It has been suggested that we lynch **Bioto** p toDay. We have to eventually lynch ito that pool anyway, so why not do it now? His alignment gives us info as to who is the Patsy: if **Biotop** is scum then it is very likely that **hawkeyop** is scum. So if we lynch him and he is scum, we get an immediate win. However, there is a big downside: if he is town then we have used up one mislynch (likely the only mislynch that we can afford). It means that **Scathach** is probably scum, but the final scum is still hidden. The game is still in the balance. So lynching **Biotop** is off the table. That leaves us with lynching either **Scathach** or **hawkeyop**. Again, lynching scum leads to a town/lutha win, so look at it the other way: what are the consequences of a mislynch? First, I agree that, if **hawkeyop** is scum, then **Biotop** is the last scum. I think the converse is also true: if **hawkeyop** is town, then **Biotop** is town. Case 1: **hawkeyop** is mislynched In this case we have used up our mislynch. We do still have an exposed scum, but the other one is still hidden. It is almost certainly going to be either **JohnnyBravo** or **Plumpudding** , but getting it wrong costs us the game. Case 2: **Scathach** is mislynched In this case we know that **hawkeyop** is scum, and therefore that **Biotop** is also scum. So while we cannot afford a mislynch, both scum are known. So there it is: lynching **Scathach** leads to a town/lutha win, even if it a mislynch. Comments welcome. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/99 "2017-03-29T07:57:06Z")
\*\*I know Day ends at WEDNESDAY AT 5PM. However, I don’t know when that is. I believe it is about 14 hours from the time of this post. Is that correct?\*\* ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/100 "2017-03-29T11:11:56Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > \*\*I know Day ends at WEDNESDAY AT 5PM. However, I don’t know when that is. > > I believe it is about 14 hours from the time of this post. Is that correct?\*\* Looks to me like that post was at about 4am. That makes it 14 hours. It’s 26 hours after the traditional deadline. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100.md?page=6)