# Mafia Reunion Day 12 **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 26, 2017, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100 "2017-03-26T21:46:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/101 "2017-03-29T11:24:18Z")
There’s a lot stuff since my last post that needs addressing, but I’m going to have to put it to the side for a moment because I had a thought about yesterDay’s patsy claims that I need to get on paper. First, I think we can take as a given that nobody (town or mafia) had any idea whether the patsy was _ever_ going to lynch unless under pressure. It makes general sense, in the event of a patsy counterclaim, to kill the **first** patsy claimant. Counterclaims are usually more reliable than initial claims as a broad rule, and on top of that a town bomb can just kill a false counterclaim. Biotop posted - more than once - that town had the game completely locked up and that there was pretty much no reasonable way for us to lose. Let’s take that as a given. So the day unfolds like this: Texcat is on the hook for the lynch and they see that there’s no reasonable way for them to win - even with a patsy mislynch today. They need _something_. They need to engineer a lynch of the real patsy and then deliver the ultimatum to LUTHA. This is the only reasonable way for them to win without a long series of mislynches on town’s part. Option 1: What if Texcat claims patsy to try and avoid the lynch? If Texcat claims patsy, she’ll get counterclaimed and still lynched. Option 1a: What if Texcat claims patsy and hawkeyeop false counters? This is better, but mafia needs to maximize hawkeye’s towniness factor to make sure the real patsy is lynched. How do we do that? Option 2: What if hawkeye claims apropos of nothing and Texcat counterclaims with a patently anti-town plan for using her power? There’s no chance anybody will believe her. Hawkeye’s claim will be much more believable if it comes from nowhere. This is a good plan. Scathach’s inevitable counterclaim will lose weight. But there’s one flaw. What if Scathach counters before Texcat does? If Scathach counters before Texcat can, it looks bad for hawkeye. Remember, **it is a better move for scum Scathach to drop into the unconfirmed pool,** so Scathach’s counterclaim would look pretty legitimate. So it’s important that hawkeye claim and that Texcat counter _immediately_. When Scathach makes the real counter, the waters will become super muddy and the stage will be set for the patsy gambit. Look at the timestamps on the two posts. They’re only 18 minutes apart. Texcat’s claim was her first post of the (d)ay. That’s really, really convenient timing, isn’t it? That she would happen to log on just as that claim is going up and then happen to decide to post a ridiculous fake claim in the intervening period? If we believe Biotop is correct that town had this wrapped up barring extraordinarily circumstances, then we can believe that mafia made an attempt to engineer extraordinary circumstances. That means the patsy plan was formed before the claims happened. Basically, you have to ask yourself this: Once it became obvious that Texcat was going to be lynched, **how could scum go about creating an opportunity for a patsy mislynch?** ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/102 "2017-03-29T12:30:17Z")
Yes **Johnny** , you are concerned about the timing of the claims. However, if a town **hawkeyeop** happens to claim, **TexCat** must counter in her next post, so it is automatically likely to be soon after. There is a (small) chance she will be believed, in which case they get a mislynch and 2 scum can drop into the unconfirmed pool. If that doesn’t work then scum **Scathach** can finally participate in the Day and claim, so as to set into motion the cultist blackmail plan. Note that **Scathach** had not posted at all that Day, until her claim post. However, regardless of any of that, it certainly looks like a lynch of **Scathach** wins the game, regardless of her alignment. It’s a pity you didn’t adddress that argument. Well, I’m about to go to bed. I’ll be here again shortly before the scheduled end of Day, but I suspect the hammer will fall before then. Johnny (and others), here is the vote to follow: **Vote Scathach** ---
**Author:** ![Koldanar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/dbc845/32.png) [@Koldanar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koldanar)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/103 "2017-03-29T12:54:39Z")
I’m not doing this without a consensus - do we follow Captain and hammer Scathach? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/104 "2017-03-29T13:04:19Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > However, regardless of any of that, it certainly looks like a lynch of **Scathach** wins the game, regardless of her alignment. It’s a pity you didn’t adddress that argument. I hope so. **unvote** **vote Scathach** ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/105 "2017-03-29T13:05:58Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > [snipped] > First, I agree that, if **hawkeyop** is scum, then **Biotop** is the last scum. I think the converse is also true: if **hawkeyop** is town, then **Biotop** is town. Why is this? I don’t agree, could you explain for me? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/106 "2017-03-29T13:08:35Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > However, regardless of any of that, it certainly looks like a lynch of **Scathach** wins the game, regardless of her alignment. It’s a pity you didn’t adddress that argument. Oh, and I’ve actually addressed it a million times - I just don’t care to continue to antagonize Koldanar any longer since he’s told us he won’t be following Mafia’s plan. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/107 "2017-03-29T13:24:18Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > **Plumpudding** , it’s great that you think I’m such a skilled analytical player. I indeed do enjoy in-depth analysis and wringing my hands over votes. That’s much of the fun of this game for me. > > But there is this thing called “real life” that’s about job and family and friends and personal issues. Real life has a way of interfering with Mafia play, especially in a game of this size. I have tried to post something in every real day of this game. I missed a few, but I tried. > > You and \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*have seen fit to build a case against me, **not for my play in this game** , but instead because I was highly analytical in other games, both as Scum and Town. You cannot both be Mafia, so one of you really believes it. If \*\*raventhief \*\*is Scum then you both believe it. And that seems unlikely. > > You know what else I like about **raventhief**? She volunteered to go in with me to diffuse the possible \*\*Cookies \*\*bomb. That would be a surprising play for a relative Mafia newcomer in this large game with her supposedly playing her first time as Scum. If she did it kudos to her. A bold: Yes, it is precisely for your play _in this game_ I suspect you. Somehow you’re also channeling Texcat here, dismissing several suspicions with one handwave. Again, reasons summarized: Overconfidence, easy votes, less proactive, more reactive, big focus on congratulating others analyses with drive-by compliments. In my notes early game I characterised your votes as “weaselly”. Probably not the best description, but there’s something off there. You look like you’re trying really hard to be well liked, stay relevant and coming off looking well. Maybe Brown-nosy, idk. I mentioned Lion earlier, but Lion made me more willing to not judge you for this and have you in my neutral column, I distrust you because of this game, not Lion. ROAAR! ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/108 "2017-03-29T13:46:53Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > Special super bonus trivia question. What is the name of the person generally credited with the creation of mafia? Dmitry Davidoff? ---
**Author:** ![Koldanar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/dbc845/32.png) [@Koldanar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koldanar)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/109 "2017-03-29T13:59:25Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > I hope so. > > unvote > vote Scathach Here we go then. **vote Scathach** ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/110 "2017-03-29T14:02:10Z")
Time to start addressing stuff. > [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > So this seems to be both a typo AND a case of miscounting. I don’t about you, but when I’m doing analysis it involves multiple windows, a notepad file, skimming through several thousand posts worth of information, and a whole shitload of copy/pasting. Mistakes will be made, and those mistakes are more likely as I post more. > [@Biotop](#): > > You and \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*have seen fit to build a case against me, not for my play in this game, but instead because I was highly analytical in other games, both as Scum and Town. Extraordinarily reductive summary of my posts toDay. Plumpudding is right when he says you’re handwaving. > [@Biotop](#): > > But there is this thing called “real life” that’s about job and family and friends and personal issues. Real life has a way of interfering with Mafia play, especially in a game of this size. I said it in the post where I voted hawkeye, but it bears repeating. People definitely get busy. But this is also the #1 excuse for a bucket of scummy behaviors. Skimming? My life is busy. Not posting? My life is busy. Difference in play style? Failure to deliver promised analysis? My life is busy. I’m not accusing you of every one of those. My point is that these are all scum behaviors, and scum consistently fall back to the real-life defense because it can’t be contradicted. So the only response to that can be “I’m sorry your life is busy and I believe you (and I do, and it’s even more reasonable in a game that’s lasted this long), but that’s not actually a defense.” It’s a policy thing, like lynching liars. You have to be uniform because otherwise you open massive doors for scum to waltz through. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/111 "2017-03-29T14:04:44Z")
I am happy with the vote on **Scathach**. I am not at the \*\*Angel \*\* 40,000% sure level. But it looks right. If \*\*Hawkeyeop \*\*is Mafia, however, I am still not Mafia. I don’t think he is guilty But I certainly don’t know for sure. I may be around at EOD, depending on whether my wife has come home or not. If she is home, we will probably be doing yardwork/walking the dogs. My playing Mafia all day instead of getting chores done on my day off is a touchy subject, to say the least. She’s right about that, BTW. 40,000%. Otherwise I will be trying for a little while to figure out what is going on in the very complex \*\*Pleonast \*\*Giraffe game. ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/112 "2017-03-29T14:06:24Z")
I am willing to follow the Captain’s lead. \*\*Vote Scathach. \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/113 "2017-03-29T14:11:20Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Klutz;20100133First, I agree that, if **hawkeyop** is scum, then **Biotop** is the last scum. I think the converse is also true: if **hawkeyop** is town, then **Biotop** is town. [/QUOTE] First, portions of my problems with Biotop hold up even if Scathach flips town. The hammer is about to drop. We will presumably have another hammer tomorrow. Even if Scathatch flips town as I’m predicting, we should be careful about going into toMorrow too certain of how we want to vote. ToDay started with two quick votes on Scathach and we might have hit hammer almost immediately, but instead we had time for a lot of analysis and we’re better for it. ToMorrow deserves no less. Regardless of this lynch, even if I’m right, the only thing we will **know** tomorrow is that there is one scum among [raventhief/johnnybravo/biotop/plumpudding] and we can’t forget that starting premise. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/114 "2017-03-29T14:12:46Z")
And that’s the hammer. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/115 "2017-03-29T14:19:34Z")
> [@Plumpudding](#): > > A bold: Yes, it is precisely for your play _in this game_ I suspect you. Somehow you’re also channeling Texcat here, dismissing several suspicions with one handwave. > > Again, reasons summarized: Overconfidence, easy votes, less proactive, more reactive, big focus on congratulating others analyses with drive-by compliments. > > In my notes early game I characterised your votes as “weaselly”. Probably not the best description, but there’s something off there. You look like you’re trying really hard to be well liked, stay relevant and coming off looking well. Maybe Brown-nosy, idk. I mentioned Lion earlier, but Lion made me more willing to not judge you for this and have you in my neutral column, I distrust you because of this game, not Lion. > > ROAAR! You say this and yet you cannot help referencing that other game. Which of my votes have been easier? Where did I “brown-nose.” I always try to be well-liked because this is a game on the Internet with people I generally like. How am I supposed to defend any of that? I was overconfident in a Town win. I am quite optimistic about one now. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/116 "2017-03-29T14:27:49Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > The hammer is about to drop. We will presumably have another hammer tomorrow. Even if Scathatch flips town as I’m predicting, we should be careful about going into toMorrow too certain of how we want to vote. > > ToDay started with two quick votes on Scathach and we might have hit hammer almost immediately, but instead we had time for a lot of analysis and we’re better for it. ToMorrow deserves no less. > > Regardless of this lynch, even if I’m right, the only thing we will **know** tomorrow is that there is one scum among [raventhief/johnnybravo/biotop/plumpudding] and we can’t forget that starting premise. Hey, **Johnny Bravo** , you finally post something I agree with. Let me ask you something? If \*\*Scathach \*\*turns out to be the real Patsy, who do you think Mafia will Day kill today? Same question for **plumpudding**. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/117 "2017-03-29T14:58:43Z")
Mafia has a few good options, but each one depends on what they’ve been planning and what they’re planning to do toMorrow. It’s all WIFOM to me right now. I have no idea whether the hammer also closed the window on day orders, so I’m not going to comment on that just now. I’m not particularly worried about dying today - Mafia is more than welcome to take me out of the unconfirmed pool with their kill. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/118 "2017-03-29T15:05:34Z")
Okay, if it’s consensus. **Vote Scathach** Again, I might be wrong, but I’d rather like to lynch Hawkeyeop, ftr. @ Biotop: Yes, I referenced it earlier, so what? I referenced it now, so what? Does it influence how I read you? Yeah, it does. Do I base my opinions solely on that? No, I don’t. Brown-nose might be a bit harsh, I meant it more tounge-in-cheek. But you’ve posted plenty of “excellent analysis(etc.)!”-posts, adding nothing of your own, which to me looks like a non-confrontational way of blanket-agreeing, adding weight to an argument without having to come up with that argument yourself, without being specific as to what you’re reffering to and at points without acting on it. Is this making any sense? Dipping toes, not jumping in. Nod and a wink, no full frontal nudity. By easy votes, I meant you’ve seemed to have an easy time throwing out votes. I just find that uncharacteristic of you, is all. On life, work, all that: I understand, and I believe you. You still post well-though out posts, and I’m not gonna lambast you for participation! But again, scum would say that. We’re looking at details here, as fine and minute as they may be. Hopefully they can form a coherent picture. If Scathach is the Patsy, I’d guess a confirmed will die. If they’re hoping for an alliance still, I’d guess Klutz. * * * I also agree with Johnny, in that no matter how Scathach flips, tomorrows lynch should not be a given. Also, wasn’t there something from Mahaloth about the hammer being taken off the table? Is it on again? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/119 "2017-03-29T15:16:16Z")
The 4-vote **HAMMER** was taken off the table. The 6-vote hammer was not. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/120 "2017-03-29T15:21:51Z")
Ah okay, I guess I missed that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100.md?page=7)