# Mafia Reunion Day 12 **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 26, 2017, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100 "2017-03-26T21:46:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/121 "2017-03-29T15:28:24Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Mafia has a few good options, but each one depends on what they’ve been planning and what they’re planning to do toMorrow. It’s all WIFOM to me right now. > > I have no idea whether the hammer also closed the window on day orders, so I’m not going to comment on that just now. I’m not particularly worried about dying today - Mafia is more than welcome to take me out of the unconfirmed pool with their kill. > [@Plumpudding](#): > > Okay, if it’s consensus. > > **Vote Scathach** > > Again, I might be wrong, but I’d rather like to lynch Hawkeyeop, ftr. > > @ Biotop: > Yes, I referenced it earlier, so what? I referenced it now, so what? Does it influence how I read you? Yeah, it does. Do I base my opinions solely on that? No, I don’t. > > Brown-nose might be a bit harsh, I meant it more tounge-in-cheek. But you’ve posted plenty of “excellent analysis(etc.)!”-posts, adding nothing of your own, which to me looks like a non-confrontational way of blanket-agreeing, adding weight to an argument without having to come up with that argument yourself, without being specific as to what you’re reffering to and at points without acting on it. Is this making any sense? Dipping toes, not jumping in. Nod and a wink, no full frontal nudity. > > By easy votes, I meant you’ve seemed to have an easy time throwing out votes. I just find that uncharacteristic of you, is all. > > On life, work, all that: I understand, and I believe you. You still post well-though out posts, and I’m not gonna lambast you for participation! But again, scum would say that. We’re looking at details here, as fine and minute as they may be. Hopefully they can form a coherent picture. > > If Scathach is the Patsy, I’d guess a confirmed will die. If they’re hoping for an alliance still, I’d guess Klutz. > > * * * > > I also agree with Johnny, in that no matter how Scathach flips, tomorrows lynch should not be a given. > > Also, wasn’t there something from Mahaloth about the hammer being taken off the table? Is it on again? Interesting that neither of you supposedly see the dilemma. It’s almost like you know \*\*Scathach \*\*will flip Scum, so you haven’t thought about the alternative. I give \*\*Plumpudding \*\* slightly more credit for his answer because it sounds more genuinely confused. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/122 "2017-03-29T15:40:41Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > It’s almost like you know \*\*Scathach \*\*will flip Scum, so you haven’t thought about the alternative. What on earth? Of course I’ve thought about the ‘alternative.’ I expect Scathach to flip patsy. I have spent the \*\*entire day \*\*building on the premise that Scathach will flip patsy. Your ‘alternative’ has been my primary focus all damned day. Even if I’ve been lying, the idea that I somehow haven’t even **thought** about a scenario with a patsy-Scathach is a laughable, desperate-looking smudge. If Scathach flips scum, I will be (quite pleasantly) surprised and then I will go back and decide whether I think my case against you is still the best one on the table. At this time, though, with the hammer activated, I refuse to openly speculate on what mafia might choose to do because I do not know whether day orders have been locked in. They do not need to know what I perceive the highest-value moves to be. Sorry. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/123 "2017-03-29T15:49:54Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Interesting that neither of you supposedly see the dilemma. It’s almost like you know \*\*Scathach \*\*will flip Scum, so you haven’t thought about the alternative. I give \*\*Plumpudding \*\* slightly more credit for his answer because it sounds more genuinely confused. I’m at a loss. Care to share this “dilemma”? Some of us bulbs are dimmer than you. ---
**Author:** ![sinjin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@sinjin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinjin)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/124 "2017-03-29T16:16:07Z")
**vote Scathach** ---
**Author:** ![Koldanar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/dbc845/32.png) [@Koldanar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koldanar)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/125 "2017-03-29T16:41:38Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > What on earth? Of course I’ve thought about the ‘alternative.’ > > I expect Scathach to flip patsy. I have spent the \*\*entire day \*\*building on the premise that Scathach will flip patsy. Your ‘alternative’ has been my primary focus all damned day. Even if I’ve been lying, the idea that I somehow haven’t even **thought** about a scenario with a patsy-Scathach is a laughable, desperate-looking smudge. > > If Scathach flips scum, I will be (quite pleasantly) surprised and then I will go back and decide whether I think my case against you is still the best one on the table. > > At this time, though, with the hammer activated, I refuse to openly speculate on what mafia might choose to do because I do not know whether day orders have been locked in. They do not need to know what I perceive the highest-value moves to be. > > Sorry. Damn. He is LOADED with dismissiveness. I’ve got pretty good odds on him flipping scum, at this point. Bio, your entire game has been played with this flippant attitude. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/126 "2017-03-29T17:26:09Z")
> [@Plumpudding](#): > > I’m at a loss. Care to share this “dilemma”? Some of us bulbs are dimmer than you. My bulb isn’t that bright, but I suppose I have extra motivation to figure out what is going on if \*\*Scathach \*\* is a mislynch. Because I would probably be next. Who will Scum kill toDay if \*\*Scathach \*\*is really Patsy? Will they kill **Captain Klutz**? If they do and \*\*Koldanar \*\*has complied and gone ahead with their redirection scheme, then they duplicate the kill and lose the advantage of the redirection. If therefore they do not kill **Captain Klutz** , do they instead kill Lutha? No. Lutha is needed for their scheme. So now Mafia is forced to kill one of the 4 vanilla Town claimants. But that shrinks the pool for the remaining Scum player to hide in. Perhaps now \*\*Koldanar \*\* does not have to be so concerned about the one Scum being able to hide long enough to kill both Lutha. Maybe he has less motivation to follow Scum orders. Maybe **Koldanar** really will not go through with redirecting for Scum regardless of anything. Maybe \*\*Koldanar \*\* actually does nothing and Scum \*\*Hawkeye \*\* is killed by the Patsy. So then who do Scum kill? Do they kill **Captain Klutz** after all? But what if \*\*Koldanar \*\* has gone ahead with their scheme? Do they kill Lutha? …and around and around it goes. I feel like neither \*\*JB \*\* nor \*\*Plumpudding \*\*have thought about this at all. This is especially odd for \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*who has analyzed seemingly everything to this point. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/127 "2017-03-29T17:59:24Z")
> [@Koldanar](#): > > Damn. He is LOADED with dismissiveness. I’ve got pretty good odds on him flipping scum, at this point. Bio, your entire game has been played with this flippant attitude. Wow, **Koldanar**. That’s pretty harsh. This may not have been my top game, but I gave it the best shot I could under the circumstances. I made good cases on \*\*Zeriel \*\*and **boozahol**. My case on **Professor Pepperwinkle** was wrong but not flippant. I defended Lutha when others were calling for their blood. I picked \*\*TexCat \*\*out as Scum pretty early. I claimed my switch when it became inoperative. I didn’t jump on the \*\*Colby \*\*bandwagon when it would have been easy and I tried to keep \*\*brewha \*\*from being mislynched. I shouldn’t have called the game over for Town so early, but where is the Scum motivation for that? I did not foresee LUTHA switching sides, and according to you, LUTHA is not switching sides. Therefore the game really was close to being over and Town really is a heavy favorite to win. Pick out individual examples of my flippancy if you want and I can defend them the best I can. But you do not have a case to dismiss my whole game. ---
**Author:** ![Koldanar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/dbc845/32.png) [@Koldanar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koldanar)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/128 "2017-03-29T18:03:47Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Wow, **Koldanar**. That’s pretty harsh. > > This may not have been my top game, but I gave it the best shot I could under the circumstances. I made good cases on \*\*Zeriel \*\*and **boozahol**. My case on **Professor Pepperwinkle** was wrong but not flippant. I defended Lutha when others were calling for their blood. I picked \*\*TexCat \*\*out as Scum pretty early. I claimed my switch when it became inoperative. I didn’t jump on the \*\*Colby \*\*bandwagon when it would have been easy and I tried to keep \*\*brewha \*\*from being mislynched. > > I shouldn’t have called the game over for Town so early, but where is the Scum motivation for that? I did not foresee LUTHA switching sides, and according to you, LUTHA is not switching sides. Therefore the game really was close to being over and Town really is a heavy favorite to win. > > Pick out individual examples of my flippancy if you want and I can defend them the best I can. But you do not have a case to dismiss my whole game. I hope you know it’s nothing personal, right? 😃 Just a read I’ve been getting this day, especially. Heck, there were some days you were blended in so much I didn’t know you were in the game (which is true of many of the players, 55 was a MASSIVE amount to start with). I really believe the last scum is hiding between you and Johnny B, but his play has altered lately, from my reading. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/129 "2017-03-29T18:18:46Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > My bulb isn’t that bright, but I suppose I have extra motivation to figure out what is going on if \*\*Scathach \*\* is a mislynch. Because I would probably be next. > > Who will Scum kill toDay if \*\*Scathach \*\*is really Patsy? Will they kill **Captain Klutz**? If they do and \*\*Koldanar \*\*has complied and gone ahead with their redirection scheme, then they duplicate the kill and lose the advantage of the redirection. > > If therefore they do not kill **Captain Klutz** , do they instead kill Lutha? No. Lutha is needed for their scheme. > > So now Mafia is forced to kill one of the 4 vanilla Town claimants. But that shrinks the pool for the remaining Scum player to hide in. Perhaps now \*\*Koldanar \*\* does not have to be so concerned about the one Scum being able to hide long enough to kill both Lutha. Maybe he has less motivation to follow Scum orders. Maybe **Koldanar** really will not go through with redirecting for Scum regardless of anything. Maybe \*\*Koldanar \*\* actually does nothing and Scum \*\*Hawkeye \*\* is killed by the Patsy. > > So then who do Scum kill? Do they kill **Captain Klutz** after all? But what if \*\*Koldanar \*\* has gone ahead with their scheme? Do they kill Lutha? …and around and around it goes. > > I feel like neither \*\*JB \*\* nor \*\*Plumpudding \*\*have thought about this at all. This is especially odd for \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*who has analyzed seemingly everything to this point. Why would I think about all this? Feels like you’re trying at some kind of “gotcha” argument. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/130 "2017-03-29T18:49:26Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > …and around and around it goes. Yeah, exactly. You’re speculating on something that is pure, crystalline WIFOM. > [@Biotop](#): > > I feel like neither JB nor Plumpudding have thought about this at all. I’ve thought about it, but not too much because I don’t speculate about WIFOM unless I think it’s going to get me somewhere. What value is there in trying to figure out who mafia is going to daykill? We have no protective roles. We have no watcher. I’ve also said before that I’m trying to antagonize Koldanar less, since he still has the power to tilt things away from us if Scathach is in fact the patsy. > [@Biotop](#): > > This is especially odd for Johnny Bravo who has analyzed seemingly everything to this point. Shame on me for not analyzing even **more** than I already have been. I must be scum. I’m just not doing enough work here. You caught my tell! ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/131 "2017-03-29T18:53:12Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > What value is there in trying to figure out who mafia is going to daykill? I never finished this thought. Too much jumping around. What value is there in trying to figure out who mafia is going to daykill now that the day is over? Especially since we have no idea whether the hammer ended their order window? Plumpudding is right - this feels like a “gotcha” question. It’s already a “gotcha” premise, and one that I already addressed when you accused me of not even considering the possibility that Scathach is the patsy. Which, again, is utterly ludicrous. I have done _nothing_ today but that. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/132 "2017-03-29T19:06:48Z")
> [@Plumpudding](#): > > Why would I think about all this? Feels like you’re trying at some kind of “gotcha” argument. Yes. I am trying for some kind of “gotcha.” That’s the point of questioning. You and \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*have stated you think I am Scum because I have not analyzed enough or I am too scheming. Because I have been flippant. I haven’t posted pages arguing about whether \*\*raventhief \*\*is Scum or not. And then you wonder why I might want to know what you think the Mafia nefarious scheme could be? Why should you consider anything more once you suspect me? Is that what you are asking? I know you are wrong about me and I have been trying to find out what you are thinking and why. The same with **Johnny Bravo**. I think one of you two is Scum. I know one of you two is not Scum. If **Scathach** is a mislynch then anticipating the possible outcomes is important. When trying to figure those out, the dilemma for Scum becomes obvious. Are you really so sure I am Scum that you do not care to bother to even look at the implications? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/133 "2017-03-29T19:17:51Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Why should you consider anything more once you suspect me? Is that what you are asking? Literally the exact opposite of what has been said in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/134 "2017-03-29T19:22:02Z")
If Scathach is a mislynch, I’ll have no way whatsoever to influence whatever actions may follow toNight. Whatever Koldanar does, whatever scum do, I can’t do anything to stop them doing that. What I’m not gonna do is wallow in WIFOM only relevant to scum _right now_. For me it’s only interesting _after the fact_. This should be pretty obvious. I care about who we lynch, and I’ve several times stated my prefered lynch-candidate: Hawkeyeop. But, I’ll follow consensus and hope for the best. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/135 "2017-03-29T19:30:30Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Literally the exact opposite of what has been said in this thread. I was addressing **Plumpudding** , who asked why he should think about all this. I am pretty sure you have been thinking about it. My wife is coming home now. Let’s all see what happens. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/136 "2017-03-29T21:18:34Z")
The hammer has fallen, but Day has not been ended yet? I want to see what happens! Bring it on. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/137 "2017-03-29T21:38:32Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > The hammer has fallen, but Day has not been ended yet? > > I want to see what happens! Bring it on. Sorry guys I moved the time back to 5pm because of my work schedule, and I should be able to end the Day shortly. I need about 20 more minutes. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/138 "2017-03-29T22:53:22Z")
Additional delays. Sorry, something was brought to my attention that I’m attempting to resolve. Soon. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/139 "2017-03-29T22:56:21Z")
Something has just occurred to me: the fire in the opening colour has still not been explained. Was it just colour, or is there another third party out there? ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2017, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/140 "2017-03-29T23:11:53Z")
\*\*Koldanar - Pontiff LUTHA \*\*and **Scathach - mafia enforcer** (forgive the lack of color coding) are both dead in one of the weirdest double bluff gambits I have ever seen. Seriously, the viewing threads went (relatively) nuts when that happened. So that puts an end to some suspense. The new Day is going to be delayed for just a minute due to the aforementioned issue. Frankly I’ll be thrilled if any of you guys speak to us again after tomorrow. So, I’m putting it off. Back with a link when the new Day starts. It will go til Monday Night. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100.md?page=8)