# Mafia Reunion Day 13 **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 30, 2017, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324 "2017-03-30T01:38:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2017, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/21 "2017-03-30T18:02:39Z")
Okay. I went back and looked through all the posts I could find where I leveled accusations or otherwise built my case against Biotop. I crossed out or left out anything that has been completely invalidated by yesterday’s lynch and revealed information. I highlighted in dark red anything which I feel is still relevant or otherwise applicable. What I see is that the majority of what I wrote still applies today, and that’s before adding in certain new facts which I will be going over soonish. I’ve put each post in its own spoiler to hopefully keep things neat. [spoiler]I currently think Biotop is the mafia hidden among the vanilla townies. He’s been pinging me for a little while now. He was talking earlier about how town had the game locked up, which at the time struck me as… overly optimistic. But this really bugged me: > [@Biotop](#): > > Johnny Bravo, I do not understand why Lutha would side with Mafia. They do not have to side with anyone. They just need to live. For about the first time, I’m going to throw down some meta analysis. Biotop was a wolf in the first (and only) game of Mafia I’ve run here, and I was very entertained watching him in the wolf thread. I was entertained because Biotop is a thinker. He thinks through everything - hypotheticals, convoluted plans, you name it. Even high-risk stuff like one scum trying to get the only other remaining scum lynched. He thinks. He considers. We’ve hashed to death why the cult might be dangerous to town in certain situations. Biotop’s ‘confusion’ strikes me as very much not genuine Biotop. Not even a little bit. [del]And if the wolves had already been planning this cultist gambit, this is the kind of thing that would have been on his mind. I think this comment is a slip. A big one. “They don’t have to side with anyone. **They just need to live.** ” Well, now they have to do both. Coincidental, huh?[/del] > [@Biotop](#): > > However, unless I am dead, if TexCat flips Town I will be voting for you toMorrow. I called him out for the wording on this earlier, but I don’t like anything about it. Biotop knew that Texcat wouldn’t flip town. He voted her very early in the day, but Texcat was the presumptive lynch regardless. I’ve taken some preliminary looks back at the voting record at Biotop appears to have placed his votes in a manner that you’d expect for a [scum]. He was rarely clumped up with them and never mirrored a [scum’s] vote.\* There’s more to go over, but we’re just about at EoD. I’ll keep looking later. \*I for some reason typoed this to wolf even though all the wolves were dead at that point.[/spoiler] [spoiler] > [@Biotop](#): > > I have been scheming Scum in another game so I must be scheming Scum in this one. Nope. That’s not at all what I said. What I said is that I know you to be a clever and thoughtful player who thinks through many different scenarios and outcomes for any given situation. That’s why I don’t buy your confusion. Raventhief? I buy his confusion. He’s been screaming “clueless newbie” all game long (raventhief, if you’re the hidden mafioso then well done). See below for another example of that: > [@Biotop](#): > > Koldanar, please direct the Patsy kill onto me. If I am Scum then you kill me before Mafia can determine you did not help them. Town kills the false Patsy the next Day. Town and LUTHA win. I am Town however, so if you are going to help LUTHA, my death should satisfy you and Mafia in your quest for numbers. Captain Klutz has played a better game than I have anyway. :dubious: If you are actually town, you’re proposing an incredibly anti-town scheme. You’re suggesting that we should lose three townies toDay. With your scheme, the patsy dies, townie Biotop dies, and mafia kill a confirmed non-scum (Klutz or a cultist) with their kill. That’s an utterly terrible day.[/spoiler] [spoiler]Okay. The first thing I want to bring up is some claim stuff. By the time Texcat posted D11#18, mafia knew who the patsy was. Biotop was the last player to claim VT, and he did that in D11#13. At that point, the remaining unclaimed vanilla players were [texcat/scathach/hawkeyeop], two of whom are scum. If Biotop is the hidden scum, then mafia knew who the patsy was all the way back D9#202 when raventhief claimed VT. So Texcat was pushing for the patsy to remain silent even after she knew the patsy’s identity. Leaving that bit aside, we can see that Texcat was vociferously opposed to a patsy claim. The simplest reason for this is because the patsy claiming would have helped town by providing information. The more speculative reason is because they figured that they could make use of the (by now obviously secretive) patsy is some way in the future. Who urged the patsy to claim? Raventhief and Plumpudding. Who joined Texcat in urging the patsy to remain silent? Biotop [del]and Hawkeyeop.[/del] Biotop even went so far as to say that the win was wrapped up but that more claims might throw it to scum. Biotop put hawkeyeop on his townie shortlist in D10#78. [del]Hawkeye “me too’d” a Texcat post in D9#40.[/del] Biotop suddenly reversed his very firmly stated position, said the patsy should reveal, [del]and removed himself from the patsy pool very shortly before hawkeye made his claim.[/del] Biotop [del]and Hawkeyeop were the only two players who [/del]seemed to have the same agenda as Texcat. They are the scum. One more post incoming. [/spoiler] [spoiler] > [@Biotop](#): > > You and Johnny Bravo have seen fit to build a case against me, not for my play in this game, but instead because I was highly analytical in other games, both as Scum and Town. Extraordinarily reductive summary of my posts toDay. Plumpudding is right when he says you’re handwaving. > [@Biotop](#): > > But there is this thing called “real life” that’s about job and family and friends and personal issues. Real life has a way of interfering with Mafia play, especially in a game of this size. I said it in the post where I voted hawkeye, but it bears repeating. People definitely get busy. But this is also the #1 excuse for a bucket of scummy behaviors. Skimming? My life is busy. Not posting? My life is busy. Difference in play style? Failure to deliver promised analysis? My life is busy. I’m not accusing you of every one of those. My point is that these are all scum behaviors, and scum consistently fall back to the real-life defense because it can’t be contradicted. So the only response to that can be “I’m sorry your life is busy and I believe you (and I do, and it’s even more reasonable in a game that’s lasted this long), but that’s not actually a defense.” It’s a policy thing, like lynching liars. You have to be uniform because otherwise you open massive doors for scum to waltz through. [/spoiler] [spoiler] > [@Biotop](#): > > It’s almost like you know Scathach will flip Scum, so you haven’t thought about the alternative. What on earth? Of course I’ve thought about the ‘alternative.’ I expect Scathach to flip patsy. I have spent the entire day building on the premise that Scathach will flip patsy. Your ‘alternative’ has been my primary focus all damned day. Even if I’ve been lying, the idea that I somehow haven’t even thought about a scenario with a patsy-Scathach is a laughable, desperate-looking smudge. If Scathach flips scum, I will be (quite pleasantly) surprised and then I will go back and decide whether I think my case against you is still the best one on the table. At this time, though, with the hammer activated, I refuse to openly speculate on what mafia might choose to do because I do not know whether day orders have been locked in. They do not need to know what I perceive the highest-value moves to be. Sorry. [/spoiler] [spoiler] > [@Biotop](#): > > …and around and around it goes. Yeah, exactly. You’re speculating on something that is pure, crystalline WIFOM. > [@Biotop](#): > > I feel like neither JB nor Plumpudding have thought about this at all. I’ve thought about it, but not too much because I don’t speculate about WIFOM unless I think it’s going to get me somewhere. What value is there in trying to figure out who mafia is going to daykill? We have no protective roles. We have no watcher. I’ve also said before that I’m trying to antagonize Koldanar less, since he still has the power to tilt things away from us if Scathach is in fact the patsy. > [@Biotop](#): > > This is especially odd for Johnny Bravo who has analyzed seemingly everything to this point. Shame on me for not analyzing even more than I already have been. I must be scum. I’m just not doing enough work here. You caught my tell! -next post, same thought- I never finished this thought. Too much jumping around. What value is there in trying to figure out who mafia is going to daykill now that the day is over? Especially since we have no idea whether the hammer ended their order window? Plumpudding is right - this feels like a “gotcha” question. It’s already a “gotcha” premise, and one that I already addressed when you accused me of not even considering the possibility that Scathach is the patsy. Which, again, is utterly ludicrous. I have done nothing today but that. [/spoiler] ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2017, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/22 "2017-03-30T19:23:07Z")
For my next trick, I need to call the lovely Biotop back onto the stage. Thank you, sir. We’ve never met before, have we? What? I’ve been calling you up here repeatedly over the few days? I don’t think that’s right. Anyway, on with the show. Biotop, on Day 10 you say this: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day 10](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/78): > > \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*strikes me as most likely to be Town. You also say this in the same post: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day 10](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/78): > > I would be happy with a lynch of **TexCat** , who has been pinging everyone all game but is still somehow alive Later you say: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day 10](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/132): > > I feel good about a lynch of either \*\*Zeriel \*\*or **TexCat**. I think they are both Scum. On Day 11, I voted for Texcat in post #10, and for reasons different than yours. You say the following, **three posts later** : > [@Biotop](#): > > TexCat, I was wrong about you being Zeriel’s teammate. I still do not think I am wrong about you being Scum. > > Vote Texcat Your next post (not counting answering a Captain Klutz question), is this: > [@Mafia Reunion: Day Eleven](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/36): > > **Johnny Bravo** , I have leaned you towards Town most all game. In the only two previous games we have played together, you were aggressive your one time as Town, but you were cautious the other time as Scum. You are aggressive this game, sounding all the right notes. > > However, unless I am dead, if \*\*TexCat \*\*flips Town I will be voting for you toMorrow. This is out of nowhere! I was your strongest town lean the previous day. You, yourself, had been pushing a Texcat vote for some time. My vote on Texcat was neither a “me too” vote nor an “omgus,” but based on Texcat’s insistence that the patsy not claim. Besides - I had been pushing for a patsy claim well before you called me your towniest lean, so our disagreement on that issue couldn’t have been the reason. So I don’t understand - how did my vote for Texcat suddenly shift me from “most likely to be town” into somebody who you would **100% vote for** in the event that she flipped town? Here’s how I’m reading it. In the intervening period between your vote in post #13 and your calling me out in post #36, three more players voted for Texcat. Fast, fast, fast! So you picked the first person in the thread who voted for her (me) and invented a reason to find him suspicious and maybe even nudge him to rethink his vote. Except for one thing: **you forgot that you’d specifically said I was your TOWNIEST lean.** In a normal game, only scum forget their towniest leans, because they don’t have **actual** townie leans. This game isn’t normal, though. The wolves were still kicking, so you were doing regular analysis. You did have to decide who of the unconfirmed you thought was most likely to be town. That was me, and by that point nobody thought I was a wolf (maybe scum, probably not a wolf) - you included. So it was easy for you to pick me out as town. But when Day 11 started, the wolves were gone. There was no more scum-hunting for you to do. You knew with 100% certainty who the townies were, and so you didn’t need the “who do I think is town?” datapoints any longer. And so you slipped. You said that I was being generally townie, sure, but you forget that you’d already given me the Biotop Stamp of Big Towniehood. Now, -since then-, you have found reasons to declare that the remaining scum ‘must’ be me or Plumpudding. Most of those revolve around the provably false assertion that the only case against you is based in meta, and that you just feel durned good about raventhief’s townieness. Concluding: \*\*At D11#36, \*\*what reason did Biotop have for calling out his towniest player in that way? Why was only one of the three other unconfirmed townies who had voted for Texcat worth that suspicion? Moreover, why did that suspicion only intensify after Texcat was proved to be scum? Biotop’s entire campaign against me has been based upon a slip. He forgot that I was his most townie lean. Biotop, you are currently my vote. I won’t officially place it yet because I still think we need to talk out all the angles. Next on the agenda: Koldanar was very anti-Biotop yesterday. I’ll see if he said anything that might have struck a nerve. With the blackmail scheme failed, there was no role-based reason to kill Koldanar over sinjin. It might’ve been pure revenge, or it might’ve been his lines of reasoning. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/23 "2017-03-31T00:58:38Z")
You guys are quiet. It’s okay, I have some more stuff. Here is a post summary from Koldanar yesterDay. I’ll follow up on it in a bit. Day 11 #32 - Gives the bird to mafia. #33 - Question about the hammer. #34 - Responds to a question from raventhief. #53 - Is 75/25 that Hawkeye is the patsy. Asks Johnny who he suspects. #71 - Johnny is “rapidly shifting to pro-town.” Equally supports the lynch of either hawkeye/scathach or Biotop. Bio is seeming scummy, Plum is absent, Johnny has a distinct pro-town lean if the last 2 or 3 days are taken in isolation. #103 - Asks about following Klutz’s lead. #109 - Votes Scathach. #125 - Bio’s posting has been dismissive. Good odds on him flipping scum. Flippant attitude. #128 - Bio’s been blending in so much he [Koldanar] didn’t know he [Biotop] was in the game. Really believes scum is hiding between Bio and Johnny B. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/24 "2017-03-31T01:20:11Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > **@Captain Klutz** : any chance of getting updated day-by-day vote counts? Working on it. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/25 "2017-03-31T01:24:22Z")
**Raventhief** , your input is needed. Please give us your thoughts on the remaining players. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/26 "2017-03-31T01:28:14Z")
For the possible third party player, I was thinking that it was some kind of mad bomber. A win condition of ‘tag all living players’ is very difficult to achieve, especially if you need to be alive in order to win. So such a role would need lots of additional powers. Perhaps some Night kill immunity, can win even if dead, investigate by Day and tag by Night. It also makes sense that they would be paired with the Serial Killer, as that is another role which would be extraordinarily difficult to win in a game this size. There is one piece of evidence that **Cookies** might have had a partner: when she was caught and being strung up, she still issued a kill order. Why? There was surely no way she could actually achieve her win with that kill, so by killing someone she was hurting one side, even though she had no further interest. If she was happy to confess and resign herself to her fate and losing, why continue to influence the game? If she had a partner, it would make sense. But in spite of all that, toDay we need to get the last scum. Then we win, with no ifs or buts. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/27 "2017-03-31T01:31:58Z")
**Biotop** , yesterDay you suggested that **Koldanar** redirect the Patsy kill to yourself. Why would you make such a suggestion if you were town? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/28 "2017-03-31T01:38:09Z")
For my next trick, I want to talk about the conversation that happened at the very end of the Day. I think. I’m still unsure whether the hammer locked out the orders or not but it doesn’t really matter. It started here. > [@Mafia Reunion Day 12](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/116): > > Hey, **Johnny Bravo** , you finally post something I agree with. Let me ask you something? If \*\*Scathach \*\*turns out to be the real Patsy, who do you think Mafia will Day kill today? > > Same question for **plumpudding**. I demurred to answer because I wasn’t sure if mafia was still talking over their order and I didn’t want to influence anything. In particular, I was worried until the very end about what Koldanar would decide (sorry Koldanar) and I was pretty confident that we were about to lynch the patsy. But anyway, I didn’t answer and Biotop posted this: > [@Mafia Reunion Day 12](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/121): > > Interesting that neither of you supposedly see the dilemma. \*\*It’s almost like you know \*\*Scathach **will flip Scum, so you haven’t thought about the alternative.** I give \*\*Plumpudding \*\* slightly more credit for his answer because it sounds more genuinely confused. I’ve already posted my thoughts on this little gem, but I’ll summarize. The accusation that I hadn’t considered the possibility that Scathach was the patsy is frankly astonishing since it’s what I spent my whole day doing. I pointed that out, but Biotop never responded. He actually ignored a number of my posts yesterday, preferring to talk to Plumpudding. Plumpudding asks what, exactly, the dilemma is. > [@Mafia Reunion Day 12](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/126): > > My bulb isn’t that bright, but I suppose I have extra motivation to figure out what is going on if \*\*Scathach \*\* is a mislynch. Because I would probably be next. > > Who will Scum kill toDay if \*\*Scathach \*\*is really Patsy? Will they kill **Captain Klutz**? If they do and \*\*Koldanar \*\*has complied and gone ahead with their redirection scheme, then they duplicate the kill and lose the advantage of the redirection. > > If therefore they do not kill **Captain Klutz** , do they instead kill Lutha? No. Lutha is needed for their scheme. > > So now Mafia is forced to kill one of the 4 vanilla Town claimants. But that shrinks the pool for the remaining Scum player to hide in. Perhaps now \*\*Koldanar \*\* does not have to be so concerned about the one Scum being able to hide long enough to kill both Lutha. Maybe he has less motivation to follow Scum orders. Maybe **Koldanar** really will not go through with redirecting for Scum regardless of anything. Maybe \*\*Koldanar \*\* actually does nothing and Scum \*\*Hawkeye \*\* is killed by the Patsy. > > So then who do Scum kill? Do they kill **Captain Klutz** after all? But what if \*\*Koldanar \*\* has gone ahead with their scheme? Do they kill Lutha? …and around and around it goes. > > I feel like neither \*\*JB \*\* nor \*\*Plumpudding \*\*have thought about this at all. This is especially odd for \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*who has analyzed seemingly everything to this point. This is such a weird post. It’s this huge pile of WIFOM for a situation that likely could not be changed. It’s also **wrong**. Look at this part again. > [@](#): > > Who will Scum kill toDay if \*\*Scathach \*\*is really Patsy? Will they kill **Captain Klutz**? If they do and \*\*Koldanar \*\*has complied and gone ahead with their redirection scheme, then they duplicate the kill and lose the advantage of the redirection. See, I did put thought into this answer. Lots of thought. Before yesterday’s lynch, our numbers were 5-2-2. In a situation where Koldanar redirects the patsy lynch to Klutz and mafia _also_ put in a Klutz kill order, today would have started 3-2-2. Scum+Lutha now outnumber town. Badabing, as they say. How did Biotop get that so wrong? Because he wasn’t _actually_ concerned about Scathach being the patsy. He knew what the lynch outcome would be. He just wanted to create some kind of analysis. – Here’s the really, really weird thing. Why did mafia kill Koldanar? Warning: WIFOM ahead. Mafia knew they were losing Scathach. There was no way around that. They also knew (or at least suspected) that Koldanar wasn’t going along with the plan. But that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t still try to engineer a situation where it would be tempting for cult to turn on town. Killing either Hawkeye or Klutz would have started the day at 4-2-1. One mislynch would have brought us to 2-2-1 - back into territory where the cult could be useful again. By killing Koldanar, they effectively handed control of the game back to town and removed even the slimmest possibility that cult would flip to their side. This isn’t the _real_ mafia where they have to break kneecaps to prove points. They also happened to take out the confirmed player with the strongest anti-Biotop lean. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/29 "2017-03-31T02:12:03Z")
Wow. It’s going to take me some time to drive home from work and get enough power back on my phone, but I am coming. [joke] If our policy was really to lynch all liars, then we should lynch **Johnny Bravo** simply for every time he has posted “Just one more thing…” or “In conclusion…” [/joke] ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/30 "2017-03-31T03:17:07Z")
It’s a fair cop. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/31 "2017-03-31T03:33:18Z")
Sorry, drive-by smudge. And I was contemplating asking Johnny to just go to bed. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/32 "2017-03-31T03:34:24Z")
Johnny Bravo, you’re being townie Biotop. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/33 "2017-03-31T03:43:30Z")
But if you stop posting, no one will! ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/34 "2017-03-31T03:52:22Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > **Biotop** , yesterDay you suggested that **Koldanar** redirect the Patsy kill to yourself. Why would you make such a suggestion if you were town? Where to begin? I will respond to this first, seeing as how you \*\*Captain Klutz \*\*are one of only two completely trusted posters in the game. All other confirmed Town roles have been killed off by Scum. YesterDay, I posted [this scheme](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20095644&postcount=38)in Post #38. Here’s the idea: Scum’s desperation ploy meant that if \*\*Koldanar \*\* had followed Mafia instructions after we mislynched the Patsy, Town would have been in a very bad spot. We would have lost the Patsy, the last mason, and whomever else the Scum killed. We would have gone into this Day 13 with 2 Scum, 2 Lutha, and 3 Town. With Lutha siding with Scum, we’d have almost certainly lost. Depending on **Koldanar** , yesterDay easily could have been Lynch or Lose. We dodged a huge Mafia bullet by lynching correctly yesterDay. \*\*Koldanar \*\*said he would not follow Scum plans. But would he really have lost it for his entire team by ignoring Scum orders? I don’t know and I guess he can answer that after the game. But my thought was to give \*\*Koldanar _options, and therefore to make Mafia unsure of how to plan their own kill if the feared mislynch occurred. Throw a monkeywrench into the works and see what happened. My plan risked nothing_ for \*\*Koldanar \*\* or Town. By misdirection into the Vanilla Town pool \*\*Koldanar \*\*could still win with Scum or with Town if he killed Scum. The key was to give \*\*Koldanar \*\*an alternative plan that he might follow because it still offered his LUTHAs a near-guaranteed win. And hey if we lynched the fake Patsy, I might actually get some Town cred for this scheme. Funny how that worked out. But let’s say I am Scum. Now I have no good reason to ask \*\*Koldanar \*\*to misdirect the Patsy kill from Scum fake Patsy onto Scum me. The whole Mafia chance of winning depended on \*\*Koldanar \*\*following orders. Had he listened to me and targeted me, I would be dead Scum and the false Patsy would be lynched the next Day. I would have just undercut the very plan Mafia had cooked up with the whole friggin’ 3 Patsy claim. I posted my redirection plan at post #38 yesterDay, when no one had any idea which Patsy was going to be lynched. You ask why I would do this as Town and I have told you. Now I ask you why I would do it as Scum? ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/35 "2017-03-31T03:52:51Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > **Raventhief** , your input is needed. > > Please give us your thoughts on the remaining players. Sorry,today I was rather unfortunately ill. i am feeling better but am also planning on going back to sleep here shortly. I will give more input tomorrow, if that’s ok. I will admit, I was a bit nervous about Scathach. I wasn’t 100% confident in my vote, but happily it was right. There are four players that are hiding a scum, right? Johnny Bravo Plumpudding Biotop Raventhief I know that i am Town. Tomorrow morning I plan on looking at the suspects again, and try to figure out who the best candidate is. Right now, if I had to put down a vote, it would probably be on Plumpudding, simply because my earlier “expectation” earlier was so very very wrong. But…I am not voting right now, because the medicine I took is making my bed much more inviting than the game. I will likely dream about this game again. Maybe my sleepy mind will have more insight than my waking mind. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/36 "2017-03-31T03:58:46Z")
**Johnny Bravo** , I ask a favor. You have posted a whole flood of accusations on me while I was unable to respond because of work. Will you give me a chance to answer to all those first before you once again fill up the thread? I got a lot more to say. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/37 "2017-03-31T04:17:12Z")
Updated **Day 1** [spoiler] **Lakai** (17): InnerSticker[257], [del]snfaulkner[295-1205][/del], RedSkeez[319], PlumPudding[647], Lightfoot[883], Koldanar[900], [del]Guiri[977-1182][/del], HoopyFrood[1031], Angel[1078], Meeko[1082], HockeyMonkey[1102], Drain[1108], RavenThief[1109], JSGoddess[1129], MHaye[1176], Nesta[1187], BuffTabby[1194], Cookies[1206], Nanook[1208] **ToeJam** (15): [del][COLOR=“blue”]CaptKlutz[/COLOR][57-347][/del], Sunny Daze[113], [del]Normal[147-322][/del], Hooker[184], Sinjin[200], Sachertorte[534], [del]Lakai[775-1006][/del], CaptKlutz[796], Normal[1011], ProfP[1057], BillMc[1152], Septimus[1155], Biotop[1178], Guiri[1182], Ender[1195], Chronos[1197], snfaulkner[1205],Lakai[1209] **Colby** (6): [COLOR=“red”]Texcat[/COLOR][91], [del]Guiri[101-977][/del], [del]Septimus[106-231][/del], [del]Meeko[130-1082][/del], ToeJam[132], [del]HockeyMonkey[152-1101][/del], [del]Lakai[154-775][/del], [del]Suburban[162-541][/del], [del]Diggit[249-264][/del], Hawkeye[350], [del]Nanook[455-1208][/del], Brewha[683], Pleonast[841], [del]Septimus[993-1034][/del], Suburban[1026] **Angel** (3): [del]snfaulkner[37-157][/del], Zeriel[413], TotalLost[493], [del]JSGoddess[503-716][/del], BoozySquid[546], [del]Septimus[981-993][/del], [del]Lakai[1006-1209][/del] **Pleonast** (1): [del]Septimus[85-106][/del], ThingFish[794], [del]Normal[824-1011][/del], [del]Nesta[1187-1187][/del] **Normal Phase** (1): [del]Texcat[29-91][/del], Johnny Bravo[36], [del]Pleonast[241-511][/del] **Septimus** (1): Ender[243], [del]TotalLost[273-493][/del], [del]Normal[322-714][/del], [del]Colby[335-946][/del], [del]CaptKlutz[347-796][/del], [del]HoopyFrood[480-736][/del], [del]Pleonast[511-841][/del] **snfaulkner** (1): Diggit[264] **Texcat** (1): Scathach[758] **Brewha** (1): Colby[946] **JohnnyBravo** (0): [del]Meeko[41-130][/del], [del]BuffTabby[259-1094][/del], [del]Septimus[488-659][/del] **Meeko[**(0): [del]Drain[94-888][/del] **Drain** (0): [del]Angel[97-542][/del] **BoozySquid** (0): [del]Normal[102-147][/del], [del]snfaulkner[157-295][/del], [del]Angel[542-1078][/del], [del]Biotop[709-957][/del] **JSGoddess** (0): [del]Chronos[183-917][/del] **Hawkeye** (0): [del]BoozySquid[188-540][/del] **CaptKlutz** (0): [del]HoopyFrood[195-480][/del], [del]Drain[889-1108][/del] **Biotop** (0): [del]PlumPudding[412-470][/del] **Prof.P.** (0): [del]PlumPudding[472-647][/del], [del]Septimus[659-981][/del] **Ender** (0): [del]ProfP[528-545][/del] **PlumPudding** (0): [del]Suburban[541-1026][/del] **Koldanar** (0): [del]ProfP[545-908][/del] **TotalLost** (0): [del]RavenThief[679-912][/del], [del]JSGoddess[716-1129][/del] **Scathach** (0): [del]HoopyFrood[798-1031][/del] **ThingFish** (0): [del]Chronos[917-1197][/del] **Chronos** (0): [del]Biotop[957-1178][/del] **Not voting** (9): Crys, DaphneBlack, HalBriston, Khameleon, PrecambrianMollusc, WinstonSmith, Sario, IdleThoughts[/spoiler] **Day 2** [spoiler] **brewha** (16): [del]bufftabby(373-417)[/del], Chronos(538), [del]Biotop(543-909)[/del], BoozaholSquid(556), Cometothe…Cookies(575), [del]sachertorte(576-913)[/del], [del]HookerChemical(621-688)[/del], bufftabby(622), DrainBead(638), [del]raventhief(646-1002)[/del], paulwhoisaghost(703), Khameleon(716), Lakai(720), [del]HookerChemical(722-988)[/del], Meeko(726), ToeJam(730), Crys75(743), JohnnyBravo(767), Prof. Pepperwinkle(794), BillMc(947), TotalLost (957), InnerStickler(1033) **ToeJam** (14): [del]raventhief(31-597)[/del], IdleThoughts(32), [del]Sunny Daze(34-318)[/del], Biotop(909), sachertorte(913), CaptainKlutz(950), sinjin(955), HookerChemical(988), guiri(995), brewha(998), ThingFish(1000), raventhief(1002), Sunny Daze (1023), MHaye(1036), jsgoddess(1038), nesta(1039) **Crys75** (8): [del]Guiri(262-812)[/del], [del]SunnyDaze(568-1023)[/del], HockeyMonkey(584), DiggitCamara(588), AngeloftheNorth(595), Texcat(639), [del]CaptainKlutz(640-950)[/del], snfaulkner(641); [del]jsgoddess(795-976)[/del], Hawkeyeop(803), Zeriel(860), Scathach(959) **[COLOR=“red”]Texcat[/COLOR]**(1): Plumpudding (68) **Thing Fish** (1): Pleonast(121) **Chronos** (1): Nanook (151) **HockeyMonkey** (1): HoopyFrood(663) **snfaulkner** (1): [del]DiggitCamara(250-588)[/del], [del]Texcat(633-639)[/del], [del]Guiri(812-995)[/del], koldanar(819) **Pleonast** (1): Lightfoot(288), [del]HookerChemical(295-621)[/del], [del]ThingFish(297-1000)[/del], [del]jsgoddess(976-1038)[/del] **Plumpudding** (0): [del]SunnyDaze (318-508)[/del] **Angelofthenorth** (0): [del]Zeriel(60-529)[/del], [del]BoozaholSquid, P.I.(80-556)[/del] **Idle Thoughts** (0): [del]Angelofthenorth (44-595)[/del] **BillMc** (0): [del]DrainBead(132-638)[/del], [del]Texcat(179-633)[/del] **jsgoddess** (0): [del]HoopyFrood(294-663)[/del] **DiggitCamara** (0): [del]snfaulkner(332-641)[/del], [del]Paulwhoisaghost(386-699)[/del] **CaptainKlutz** (0): [del]DrainBead(45-132)[/del], [del]SunnyDaze(567-568)[/del], [del]Crys75(583-743)[/del] **Meeko** (0): [del]JohnnyBravo(169-767)[/del] **Sario** (0): [del]Prof. Pepperwinkle(45-794)[/del], [del]Cometothe…Cookies(523-575)[/del] **Paulwhoisaghost** (0): [del]Zeriel(529-860)[/del] **sachertorte** (0): [del]Meeko(201-726)[/del], [del]brewha(806-998)[/del] **Non-voters** (5): EnderW24, HalBriston, Precambrianmollusc, RedSkeezix, Sario[/spoiler] **Day 3** [spoiler] **IdleThoughts** (17): SunnyDaze(182), raventhief(207), [del]ToeJam(259-408)[/del], [del]HalBriston(300-923)[/del], [del]Prof.Pepperwinkle(398-692)[/del], [del]Paulwhoisaghost(515-710)[/del], Nanook(528), Biotop(533), JohnnyBravo(536), [del]Plumpudding(552-889)[/del], [del]Angelofthenorth(554-778)[/del], HockeyMonkey(576), Khameleon(593), sinjin(632), CaptainKlutz(699), Lightfoot(715), nesta(731), Hawkeyeop(758), BillMC(765), Zeriel(807), [del]snfaulkner(821-836)[/del], Angelofthenorth(873), [del]TexCat(874-908)[/del], Plumpudding(897), Cookies(917) **Prof. Pepperwinkle** (14): [del]TexCat(278-874)[/del], jsgoddess(332), [del]Paulwhoisaghost(343-515)[/del], [del]Pleonast(345-602)[/del], InnerStickler(347), [del]Lightfoot(354-715)[/del], [del]HockeyMonkey(367-576)[/del], ToeJam(408), Bufftabby(420), [del]Biotop(458-532)[/del], Enderw24(588), IdleThoughts(590), Pleonast(602), Sachertorte(656), MHaye(674), Cygnus42(818), TotalLost(837), HoopyFrood(877), [del]ThingFish(901-903)[/del], TexCat(908), HalBriston(923) **Boozahol Squid** (2): [del]HoopyFrood(286-877)[/del], [del]Angelofthenorth(303-554[/del]), [del]CaptainKlutz(487-699)[/del], Guiri(772), [del]Angelofthenorth(778-873)[/del], snfaulkner(83) **Khameleon** (2): Meeko(319), [del]ThingFish(632-901)[/del], ThingFish(903) **Enderw24** (1): [del]Nanook(28-528)[/del], Crys75(34) **Crys75** (1): BoozaholSquid(499) **Sachertorte** (1): [del]JohnnyBravo(14-536)[/del], [del]Prof. Pepperwinkle(339-398)[/del], Prof.Pepperwinkle(692) **ThingFish** (1): [del]Pleonast(141-345)[/del], Diggitcamara(691) **HockeyMonkey** (1): Lakai(704) **Diggitcamara** (1): [del]Guiri(740-772)[/del], Paulwhoisaghost(796) **Pleonast** (1): [del]Paulwhoisaghost(116-158)[/del], [del]Plumpudding(222-552)[/del], HookerChemical(814) **ToeJam** (1): [del]HookerChemical(9-708)[/del], [del]snfaulkner(17-299)[/del], [del]BillMC(23-673)[/del], [del]Sinjin(53-632)[/del], [del]Biotop(112-296)[/del], [del]CaptainKlutz(118-298)[/del], [del]Angelofthenorth(134-303)[/del], Scathach(143) **Non-voters** (1): Koldanar Note: Scathach had an improperly formatted vote for ToeJam in 143 It is included in this unofficial vote count[/spoiler] **Day 4** [spoiler] **DiggitCamara** (14): Paulwhoisaghost(20), Totallost(172), Guiri(263), Koldanar(376), BillMC(422), HookerChemical(438), Prof.P(511), raventhief(516), Boozy(518), HoopyFrood(519), Lakai(521), SunnyDaze(529), Cygnus42(530), [del]JohnnyBravo(534-546)[/del], bufftabby (535) **BoozaholSquid** (14): CaptainKlutz(45), EnderW24(102), Biotop(180), snfaulkner(192), [del]HookerChemical(262-438)[/del], DiggitCamera(288), Meeko(302), Hawkeyeop(320), Inner Stickler(346), Sachertorte(523), Plumpudding(524), Texcat(525), Cookies(543), HockeyMonkey(544), JohnnyBravo(546) **Prof. Pepperwinkle** (6): [del]BoozaholSquid(48-61)[/del], [del]Pleonast(121-142)[/del], Pleonast(142), Nanook(152), [del]bufftabby(197-535)[/del], Zeriel(353), MHaye(417), sinjin(435), Lightfoot(473) **EnderW** (1): Crys(15) **HookerChemical** (0): [del]Lakai(46-440)[/del] **sachertorte** (0): [del]Prof.P(419-511)[/del] **Meeko** (0): [del]BoozaholSquid(314-518)[/del] **Texcat** (0): [del]HoopyFrood(315-519)[/del] **Biotop** (0): [del]Lakai(440-521)[/del], [del]sachertorte(452)[/del] **Paulwhoisaghost** (0): [del]Texcat(471-525)[/del] **Hal Briston** (0): [del]Plumpudding(298-524)[/del], [del]HockeyMonkey(305-527)[/del] **Khameleon** (0): [del]JohnnyBravo(26-534)[/del], [del]HoopyFrood(52-315)[/del], [del]Prof.P(154-419)[/del] **Not voting** (4): HalBriston, Khameleon, Nesta, Scathach[/spoiler] **Day 5** [spoiler] **Prof Pepperwinkle** (15): Hawkeyeop(6), paulwiag(19), Lakai(50), bufftabby(57), [del]snfaulkner(68-231)[/del], sinjin(104), Biotop(129), CaptainKlutz(138), [del]JohnnyBravo(142-296)[/del], DarkCookies(192), Khameleon(201), Mhaye(224), LightFoot(230), Zeriel(257), Cygnus42(353), Nanook(395), Koldanar(431) **TexCat** (3): PlumPudding(38), HoopyFrood(229), nesta(438) **Nanook** (2): Sachertorte(225), HookerChemical(253) **Sachertorte** (2): JohnnyBravo(296), Prof P(445) **Johnny Bravo** (1): InnerStickler(314), [del]Koldanar(341-357)[/del] **Khameleon** (1): Snfaulkner(231) **Paulwhoisaghost** (1): TexCat(22) **TotalLost** (1): Guiri(429) Not voting(6): crys75, EnderW24, HalBriston, Meeko, Scathach, TotalLost [/spoiler] **Day 6** [spoiler] **Inner** (7): Texcat(55), Johnny(81), Hooker(85), Raven(89), Cygnus(127), Lakai(188), Ender(198) **Texcat** (4): Hoopy(24), [del]Klutz(26-102)[/del], Plump([del]31-50[/del],50), Guiri(94), Nesta(205) **Khameleon** (3): snfaulkner(6), [del]Johnny(10-81)[/del], Crys(173), Lightfoot(201) **Hal** (3): Bufftabby(143), Hawkeyeop(162), MHaye(208) **Johnny** (1): Inner(32) **Zeriel** (1): Biotop(65) **Snfaulkner** (1): Khameleon(182) **Cygnus** (1): Klutz(185) **Klutz** (0): [del]Texcat(35-55)[/del] **Total** (0): [del]Guiri(40-94)[/del] **Not voting** (9): **Cookies** , **Hal** , **Koldanar** , **Nanook** , **Scathach** , **Sinjin** , Total, **Zeriel** [/spoiler] **Day 8** [spoiler] Cygnus42 (8): LightFoot(143), guiri(149), Koldanar(161), Zeriel(163), Khameleon(164), nesta(167), Nanook170), MHaye(179) Koldanar (4): Scathach(13), [del]Johnny Bravo(103-128)[/del], Texcat(172), hawkeyeop(176), sinjin(177) Johnny Bravo (3): Lakai(132), bufftabby(144), Cygnus42(166) Zeriel (2): Biotop(49), CaptainKlutz(169) nesta (1): Johnny Bravo(128) Lakai (0): [del]Nanook(107-170)[/del] Texcat (0): [del]Guiri(67-149)[/del] Khameleon (0): [del]snfaulkner(68-115)[/del], [del]JohnnyBravo(70-103)[/del], [del]Zeriel(82-98)[/del] Nanook (0): [del]Lakai(73-132)[/del], [del]Khameleon(80-93)[/del] Not voting (3): Plumpudding, Raventhief, snfaulkner [/spoiler] **Day 9** [spoiler] bufftabby(10): JohnnyBravo(123), CaptainKlutz(128), Scathach(129), Raventhief(130), snfaulkner(135), Zeriel(140), Plumpudding(147), Texcat(174), Nesta(201), Koldanar(207) Zeriel(2): Biotop(81), Lakai (194) JohnnyBravo(3): bufftabby(101), LightFoot(106), hawkeyeop(145) Plumpudding(2): Nanook(234), MHaye(245) Koldanar(0): [del]Texcat(53-174)[/del] Not voting(1): sinjin Note: hawkeyeop had an improperly formatted vote for JohnnyBravo in 145 Nanook had an improperly formatted vote for Plumpudding in 234 They are included in this unofficial vote count [/spoiler] **Day 10** [spoiler] [COLOR=“darkorange”]Zeriel/COLOR: snfaulkner(73), Biotop(78), Lakai(92), JohnnyBravo(100), Scathach(130), CaptainKlutz(131), Texcat(136) Texcat(4): Plumpudding(76), Koldanar(129), Raventhief(133), hawkeyeop(134) hawkeyeop(1): sinjin(33) Koldanar(0): [del]JohnnyBravo(43-53)[/del] Plumpudding(0): [del]Texcat(94-136)[/del] JohnnyBravo(1): MHaye(137) Not voting(2): Nanook, Zeriel [/spoiler] **Day 11** [spoiler] Texcat(10): JohnnyBravo(10), Biotop(13), Plumpudding(14), Raventhief(15), CaptainKlutz(19), Hawkeyeop(51), Koldanar(52), Scathach(72), sinjin(82), MHaye(95) Hawkeyeop(1): Texcat(44) Note: Scathach had an improperly formatted vote for Texcat in 72 It is included in this unofficial vote count [/spoiler] **Day 12** [spoiler] Scathach(8): [del]CaptainKlutz(9-14)[/del], Hawkeyeop(10), Biotop(55), CaptainKlutz(102), JohnnyBravo(104). Koldanar(109), Raventhief(112), Plumpudding(118), sinjin(124) Hawkeyeop(1): Scathach(81), [del]JohnnyBravo(91-104)[/del] [/spoiler] ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/38 "2017-03-31T05:10:23Z")
Let’s look at yesterDay. Mafia had confounded us with three Patsies on Day 12. Fortunately we lynched **TexCat**. That could have been their original plan or it could have been thought up when **TexCat** ’s false counterclaim went nowhere. In any case, they were prepared to present her LUTHA threats at EOD. The plan was especially risky because it outed **Scathach** , who could easily have remained hidden in the Town vanilla pool. But the plan offered great rewards if it was pulled off successfully. Mafia took that risk. What was the key to the plan? The key was the successful mislynch of **Hawkeyeop**. Had that happened with a \*\*Koldanar \*\*misdirect, the results would have been terrible. I posted just above that we would have gone into Day 13 with 2 Mafia, 2 Lutha, and 3 Town. But actually, I think now if I refigure it correctly, that result would have only left 2 Town on Day 13. Stick a fork in Town. So Mafia really needed for us to mislynch **Hawkeyeop** yesterDay. Which players were pushing hard for that mislynch? \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*sure was. I believe \*\*plumpudding \*\*expressed a preference for **Hawkeyeop** as well. And to be fair, **raventhief** did not vote for **Scathach** until late. I was the claimed vanilla defending \*\*Hawkeyeop \*\*for his beautiful “fair to Scum” comment on Night 0. I was the one who posted about how I liked **Captain Klutz** ’s extremely detailed analysis where he said that he would be very surprised if \*\*Hawkeyeop \*\* was the false Patsy. Instead of focusing on my comment ( “excellent analysis”), those with meta issues on me complain because I didn’t rattle on. But I didn’t need to add a damn thing. Does this mean I couldn’t be Scum? I think it is unlikely, but I know you all cannot be completely sure. Fine. But the thing is \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*has almost exclusively focused on me toDay, the one player among the claimed vanilla who voted early or **Scathach** and stayed with that vote. He has basically ignored those who me-tooed his **Hawkeyeop** case or were hesitant to vote **Scathach**. Why? I think \*\*JB \*\* is “all in” with his case against me. Mafia need two mislynches for his endgame. If he successfully gets me mislynched, he can try again with \*\*raventhief \*\* or **Plumpudding** toMorrow. Which of those will stand up to his WOW posts? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 10:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/39 "2017-03-31T10:47:36Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by Captain Klutz t > > Biotop, yesterDay you suggested that Koldanar redirect the Patsy kill to yourself. Why would you make such a suggestion if you were town? > > Where to begin? > > I will respond to this first, seeing as how you \*\*Captain Klutz \*\*are one of only two completely trusted posters in the game. All other confirmed Town roles have been killed off by Scum. > > YesterDay, I posted [this scheme](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20095644&postcount=38)in Post #38. > > Here’s the idea: > > Scum’s desperation ploy meant that if \*\*Koldanar \*\* had followed Mafia instructions after we mislynched the Patsy, Town would have been in a very bad spot. We would have lost the Patsy, the last mason, and whomever else the Scum killed. We would have gone into this Day 13 with 2 Scum, 2 Lutha, and 3 Town. With Lutha siding with Scum, we’d have almost certainly lost. Depending on **Koldanar** , yesterDay easily could have been Lynch or Lose. We dodged a huge Mafia bullet by lynching correctly yesterDay. > > \*\*Koldanar \*\*said he would not follow Scum plans. But would he really have lost it for his entire team by ignoring Scum orders? I don’t know and I guess he can answer that after the game. But my thought was to give \*\*Koldanar _options, and therefore to make Mafia unsure of how to plan their own kill if the feared mislynch occurred. Throw a monkeywrench into the works and see what happened. My plan risked nothing_ for \*\*Koldanar \*\* or Town. By misdirection into the Vanilla Town pool \*\*Koldanar \*\*could still win with Scum or with Town if he killed Scum. The key was to give \*\*Koldanar \*\*an alternative plan that he might follow because it still offered his LUTHAs a near-guaranteed win. And hey if we lynched the fake Patsy, I might actually get some Town cred for this scheme. Funny how that worked out. > > But let’s say I am Scum. Now I have no good reason to ask \*\*Koldanar \*\*to misdirect the Patsy kill from Scum fake Patsy onto Scum me. The whole Mafia chance of winning depended on \*\*Koldanar \*\*following orders. Had he listened to me and targeted me, I would be dead Scum and the false Patsy would be lynched the next Day. I would have just undercut the very plan Mafia had cooked up with the whole friggin’ 3 Patsy claim. > > I posted my redirection plan at post #38 yesterDay, when no one had any idea which Patsy was going to be lynched. You ask why I would do this as Town and I have told you. Now I ask you why I would do it as Scum? Why would scum **Biotop** ask to have the Patsy kill redirected to him? Good question. Let’s figure out what is happening. Lutha have just been issued with an ultimatum: join with mafia or lose the game. **Koldanar** is ordered to redirect the Patsy kill to a confirmed townie. Now comes the awkward question: who should mafia target with their own kill toDay? This is awkward because they need to decide their kill before seeing the outcome of the Day. If they instead had a Night kill, they could see if Koldanar had followed the plan, then chosen their kill accordingly. However, since they have a Day kill it gets a bit tricky. There was only one confirmed townie left (a mason), along with 2 lutha and 4 unknowns (plus of course the 2 Patsy candidates). The mason was the obvious kill for both mafia and Koldanar, but having both target the same player completely negates the advantage of the bonus kill. So mafia have 2 options. The first is to shoot in the unconfirmed pool. This is great if Koldanar follows the plan and targets the mason, but really bad if he does not. But mafia does have another option: get Koldanar to shoot a townie from the unknowns. Then mafia can take out the mason and enjoy a mafia/lutha win. Of course, Koldanar shooting into the unknowns is risky, as he might hit the hidden mafia. So how do you tell Koldanar where to aim? Simple: tell him “shoot me”. This is saying “I am the hidden mafiate. Hit one of the others, then we can win together”. Note that this is a really bad suggestion for a town player to make: yes, it reduces the unknowns but it also leaves 2 scum alive and town outnumbered by mafia+lutha. So it makes no sense from a town perspective, but good sense from a scum signalling perspective. Now it’s **Koldanar’s** move. He has been threatened with a guaranteed loss unless he co-operates with mafia. What to do? The only real answer, of course, is “go for the win”. So Koldanar loudly proclaims that he would rather lose than submit to blackmail, while trying to figure out who to redirect the kill to. He sees the same issue as to who he should target. The mason is the obvious choice, and he’ll do that. Until he sees **Biotop’s** suggestion. Koldanar gets the message and is all set to redirect to one of the other 3 unknowns. Then Koldanar has another thought: why not redirect to Biotop anyway? That way he either wins immediately with town, or the next Day with mafia. So Koldanar sends his revised orders: redirect **Scathach** to **Biotop**. Meanwhile in mafia headquarters, they are feeling down again. Town is about to make the correct choice. So who should they kill? The mason in the obvious choice, but there is a reason to keep him alive: he had proclaimed that, if **Hawkeyop** was town then **Biotop** was town. That is a good person to leave in the game. So who else? Well, Koldanar has been a critic of Biotop. Also Koldanar may, if left alive, say that he thought Biotop’s offer was a message from scum. So it is too dangerous to keep him alive, even though it ends any chance of a mafia/lutha alliance. Mafia send their orders: kill **Koldanar**. That is an amazing passage of play. And it justifies the dusk writeup: “ **Koldanar** and **Scathach** are both dead in one of the weirdest double bluff gambits I have ever seen”. So toDay I will be voting **Biotop**. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/40 "2017-03-31T11:28:19Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Johnny Bravo, I ask a favor. You have posted a whole flood of accusations on me while I was unable to respond because of work. Will you give me a chance to answer to all those first before you once again fill up the thread? I got a lot more to say. I mean, I’ve been making accusations at you since yesterDay and you’ve been mostly ignoring them. They’re all here in this thread, annotated and colored. The ones from yesterday are in the spoilered post. Feel free to start at the top and work your way down or pick the ones who think are most worth defending do best to worst points. Whatever works. I would very much like you to address them but I’m not going to stop playing. If you’re taking requests, I’d like you to start with why I switched from your towniest lean to a guaranteed scum vote. It’s post 22 today. > [@Biotop](#): > > So Mafia really needed for us to mislynch **Hawkeyeop** yesterDay. Which players were pushing hard for that mislynch? \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*sure was. Yes I was. My job as town is to vote and always justify my votes so that my thought process is clear. What parts of my case do you find scummy? You didn’t have anything to say about it yesterday. > [@](#): > > I was the claimed vanilla defending \*\*Hawkeyeop \*\*for his beautiful “fair to Scum” comment on Night 0. Defending a player on Day 12 based solely upon on a comment they made on Night 0 is not a good defense. > [@](#): > > I was the one who posted about how I liked **Captain Klutz** ’s extremely detailed analysis where he said that he would be very surprised if \*\*Hawkeyeop \*\* was the false Patsy. Instead of focusing on my comment ( “excellent analysis”), those with meta issues on me complain because I didn’t rattle on. But I didn’t need to add a damn thing. In Mafia parlance, we call that a “me too” post. > [@](#): > > But the thing is \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*has almost exclusively focused on me toDay, the one player among the claimed vanilla who voted early or **Scathach** and stayed with that vote. He has basically ignored those who me-tooed his **Hawkeyeop** case or were hesitant to vote **Scathach**. Why? That tends to be my playstyle. I find a player and chase down leads until I’ve been proven wrong or convinced that another player is more worth looking at. I’ve done it all game. Sometimes it gets good results (bufftabby, Texcat). Sometimes it gets bad results (Inner Stickler). Sometimes it gets no results (Koldanar). If I’m reading your post right, most of your defense is that you were right about who was scum and who was the patsy. The problem is that you had **zero** good reasons. I think \*\*JB \*\* is “all in” with his case against me. Mafia need two mislynches for his endgame. If he successfully gets me mislynched, he can try again with \*\*raventhief \*\* or **Plumpudding** toMorrow. Which of those will stand up to his WOW posts? [/QUOTE] > [@](#): > > me… the one player among the claimed vanilla who voted early or **Scathach** and stayed with that vote. You were actually the third vote on Scathach, and you know what they say about third votes. Also, everybody stayed with their Scathach vote. The only unvote was Klutz because he recognized that there were doubts to hash out. You were the only one who was positive. But at **no point** yesterday did you give a good reason for defending hawkeye (the N0 comment from three months ago is not a good reason). At **no point** yesterday did you build a case against Scathach. But now you’re trying to take townie cred for knowing alignments. The only time you ever acknowledged the possibility of a mislynch was after the votes were in. You go (paraphrasing obviously), “hey guys, I just had a **weird thought.** What if Scathach is the patsy? Has anybody even considered that scenario Johnny Bravo and Plumpudding sure haven’t - they’re probably scum.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324.md?page=3)