# Mafia Reunion Day 13 **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 30, 2017, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324 "2017-03-30T01:38:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 28
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324/28 "2017-03-31T01:38:09Z")
For my next trick, I want to talk about the conversation that happened at the very end of the Day. I think. I’m still unsure whether the hammer locked out the orders or not but it doesn’t really matter. It started here. > [@Mafia Reunion Day 12](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/116): > > Hey, **Johnny Bravo** , you finally post something I agree with. Let me ask you something? If \*\*Scathach \*\*turns out to be the real Patsy, who do you think Mafia will Day kill today? > > Same question for **plumpudding**. I demurred to answer because I wasn’t sure if mafia was still talking over their order and I didn’t want to influence anything. In particular, I was worried until the very end about what Koldanar would decide (sorry Koldanar) and I was pretty confident that we were about to lynch the patsy. But anyway, I didn’t answer and Biotop posted this: > [@Mafia Reunion Day 12](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/121): > > Interesting that neither of you supposedly see the dilemma. \*\*It’s almost like you know \*\*Scathach **will flip Scum, so you haven’t thought about the alternative.** I give \*\*Plumpudding \*\* slightly more credit for his answer because it sounds more genuinely confused. I’ve already posted my thoughts on this little gem, but I’ll summarize. The accusation that I hadn’t considered the possibility that Scathach was the patsy is frankly astonishing since it’s what I spent my whole day doing. I pointed that out, but Biotop never responded. He actually ignored a number of my posts yesterday, preferring to talk to Plumpudding. Plumpudding asks what, exactly, the dilemma is. > [@Mafia Reunion Day 12](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-12/783100/126): > > My bulb isn’t that bright, but I suppose I have extra motivation to figure out what is going on if \*\*Scathach \*\* is a mislynch. Because I would probably be next. > > Who will Scum kill toDay if \*\*Scathach \*\*is really Patsy? Will they kill **Captain Klutz**? If they do and \*\*Koldanar \*\*has complied and gone ahead with their redirection scheme, then they duplicate the kill and lose the advantage of the redirection. > > If therefore they do not kill **Captain Klutz** , do they instead kill Lutha? No. Lutha is needed for their scheme. > > So now Mafia is forced to kill one of the 4 vanilla Town claimants. But that shrinks the pool for the remaining Scum player to hide in. Perhaps now \*\*Koldanar \*\* does not have to be so concerned about the one Scum being able to hide long enough to kill both Lutha. Maybe he has less motivation to follow Scum orders. Maybe **Koldanar** really will not go through with redirecting for Scum regardless of anything. Maybe \*\*Koldanar \*\* actually does nothing and Scum \*\*Hawkeye \*\* is killed by the Patsy. > > So then who do Scum kill? Do they kill **Captain Klutz** after all? But what if \*\*Koldanar \*\* has gone ahead with their scheme? Do they kill Lutha? …and around and around it goes. > > I feel like neither \*\*JB \*\* nor \*\*Plumpudding \*\*have thought about this at all. This is especially odd for \*\*Johnny Bravo \*\*who has analyzed seemingly everything to this point. This is such a weird post. It’s this huge pile of WIFOM for a situation that likely could not be changed. It’s also **wrong**. Look at this part again. > [@](#): > > Who will Scum kill toDay if \*\*Scathach \*\*is really Patsy? Will they kill **Captain Klutz**? If they do and \*\*Koldanar \*\*has complied and gone ahead with their redirection scheme, then they duplicate the kill and lose the advantage of the redirection. See, I did put thought into this answer. Lots of thought. Before yesterday’s lynch, our numbers were 5-2-2. In a situation where Koldanar redirects the patsy lynch to Klutz and mafia _also_ put in a Klutz kill order, today would have started 3-2-2. Scum+Lutha now outnumber town. Badabing, as they say. How did Biotop get that so wrong? Because he wasn’t _actually_ concerned about Scathach being the patsy. He knew what the lynch outcome would be. He just wanted to create some kind of analysis. – Here’s the really, really weird thing. Why did mafia kill Koldanar? Warning: WIFOM ahead. Mafia knew they were losing Scathach. There was no way around that. They also knew (or at least suspected) that Koldanar wasn’t going along with the plan. But that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t still try to engineer a situation where it would be tempting for cult to turn on town. Killing either Hawkeye or Klutz would have started the day at 4-2-1. One mislynch would have brought us to 2-2-1 - back into territory where the cult could be useful again. By killing Koldanar, they effectively handed control of the game back to town and removed even the slimmest possibility that cult would flip to their side. This isn’t the _real_ mafia where they have to break kneecaps to prove points. They also happened to take out the confirmed player with the strongest anti-Biotop lean. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-13/783324)._