# Mafia Reunion Day 5 **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [February 7, 2017, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271 "2017-02-07T20:22:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/301 "2017-02-10T18:39:12Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Probably. But they’ll be even happier if we get to an endgame where there are enough cultists left alive to hand them a win. And you know what? Town should be pretty happy if there are enough cultists at endgame to hand Town the win. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/302 "2017-02-10T18:41:47Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > I believe that scum have to put a lot more thought into their posts than town. Yes. That’s your take-away? I point out holes in your thinking and that takes me out of the Third Party column and makes me scum? How is that reasonable? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/303 "2017-02-10T18:42:13Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > And you know what? Town should be pretty happy if there are enough cultists at endgame to hand Town the win. Let’s assume that there are five cultists. Let’s assume a scenario where cultists get to pick who the winner is. That makes it a 50/50 flip over who wins. Screw those odds. But you know what? I just realized that you’ve spent the last few posts speaking for all of the other cultists, as if you can somehow guarantee their pro-town motivations. The cultists as described do not have the ability to talk to one another. But scum do. I’m growing more and more convinced that you’re a liar. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/304 "2017-02-10T18:43:18Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > How is that reasonable? How is it reasonable for you to attribute pro-town motives to cultists who you supposedly have no communication with? ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/305 "2017-02-10T18:50:37Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > How is it reasonable for you to attribute pro-town motives to cultists who you supposedly have no communication with? We’re talking theory. That’s pretty obvious. So you’re not going to address the mid-game sacrifices I mentioned? You’re just gonna slap on the “liar” label and be done with it? Hmmm. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/306 "2017-02-10T18:54:07Z")
I stopped reading when you started talking about alternate timelines. I don’t play quantum Mafia. Bottom line - either you can speak for your fellow cultists (in which case you’re lying about who and what you are) or you **can’t** speak for your fellow cultists and all of your jabber is just that - jabber. Hmm yourself. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/307 "2017-02-10T18:57:17Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > We’re talking theory. That’s pretty obvious. The problem here is that part of **your** theory is whether your fellow cultists will act in town’s interests. I don’t have to be theoretical when I say that I want town to win. You do. If you’re telling the truth about everything then **you have no idea whether the cultists are currently acting in town’s interest or whether they will be willing to do so at end-game.** ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/308 "2017-02-10T18:58:52Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > I stopped reading when you started talking about alternate timelines. I don’t play quantum Mafia. > > Bottom line - either you can speak for your fellow cultists (in which case you’re lying about who and what you are) or you **can’t** speak for your fellow cultists and all of your jabber is just that - jabber. > > Hmm yourself. Then why did you ask? I was perfectly fine letting you yammer on and leaving you the hell alone, but you _specifically asked me to comment_. ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/309 "2017-02-10T19:01:00Z")
I wonder if \*\* crys \*\* has anything to say about this? Or, for that matter any other “cultist” ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/310 "2017-02-10T19:01:46Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > I’ve already addressed this (D5#161), but I’ll do it again. > > **Leaving the cultists alone is dangerous to town. A cultist lynch does not ONLY benefit scum.** > > If there comes any point where cultists+[mafia|wolves] \> everyone else, they can reveal as a block and control the rest of the votes. Other factors make this more or less dangerous, but there are any number of not unlikely scenarios that work for this. > > The worst-case scenario is one where the remainder of the wolves AND our vig die. That would push us to the end-game pretty quickly. > > The cultists do not care who wins. They have no loyalty to town. The notion that they can be at once non-hostile AND that they can win with scum is fallacious. As soon as it makes sense for them to jump ship, they will. Our only defense is to either force the cult into the open,\* or kill the ones we know about to decrease their potential power as an anti-town voting block. > > \*Let’s also not forget that the other three cultists claiming would reduce the pool of players that we’re scum-hunting in. I think we’re at the point in the game where that would be useful. > > I would, at present, be content with only two of the remaining three hidden cultists claiming to preserve a bit of their anonymity. > > I also think that, should no Masons or Cultists die between now and toMorrow, we should discuss them all claiming together. If we have five more deaths before then and there are in fact five cultists, that would mean that nearly 1/3 of the remaining players (nine out of 28) could be confirmed as not-scum. That would be huge. > > Regardless, if we don’t get **some** kind of change in the cultist paradigm soon, I’m going to start pulling very hard to lynch sachertorte. There’s no such thing as a tame tiger and there’s no such thing as a non-hostile 3P. There are only moments where you aren’t _currently_ getting mauled. I see where you are coming from, but I disagree on a few points. If the vig and the wolves are all dead, there will be significantly fewer deaths each round and LYLO will slow down dramatically, not speed up. You don’t seem to consider what a scum and cultists win would look like. In order for the cultists to win with scum there would have to be less cultists than scum remaining. Cultists only need 1 to survive according to their claim, but here’s where it gets tricky. Let’s suppose that we get no further scum kills until the total game is reduced to 3 wolves, 5 mafia, and 5 cultists. You are worried about them out numbering town and block voting. For that situation to occur there can be no more than 12 town, ignoring other 3P, that brings the game total to 25. Not too far away. Can either scum team win in that situation without killing the cultists? No. So let’s say we pick off all the wolves, and there are 5 mafia, 5 cult, and 9 town. In this and only this situation, the scum can win without killing any cultists. That’s 19 players, and requires that no mafia or cultists die before getting there for it to work. Any loss from either side makes it harder for them to get to the point that they can block vote. Run the actual numbers… the cultists working with the scum doesn’t work unless the scum kill off cultists, at this point with 5 mafia, they are equal in number to the cult and would have to kill everyone else to win without killing a cult member. I don’t find that likely to happen. I’d like to point out that this sort of situation is why it is important for us to try to differentiate between likely wolf and likely mafia. We want them all dead, but there are several situations where it benefits us to kill one over the other. This is one of those situations. I don’t think it likely that the cult wold attempt to work with the scum, but the best plan of action is to reduce the mafia and wolf numbers to a point that it wouldn’t make sense for them to work together. Wolves are already there, we need one more mafia and then they can’t win without killing a cultist. Again, I say the cultists remain tabled until one more mafia dies and then they all claim. I still have a tin foil hat theory bouncing around my head that cultists are mafia and I want to see another mafia due before I am ready to dismiss it. In that crazy theory, the remaining mafia are Crys, Sach, SNF, Raventhief, and Prof. Of which the only one I think is likely still scum even if the theory is wrong, is Prof. Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/311 "2017-02-10T19:02:32Z")
You did comment. You said, “I also disagree with you strongly about your assessment of cultist dangers.” The fact that you **refuse to acknowledge that the cultists may be a threat to town** is enough to make me want to lynch you. It’s effectively a lie, and liars get lynched. I would trust you more if you were being honest. ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/312 "2017-02-10T19:03:51Z")
> [@Nanook\_of\_the\_North\_Shore](#): > > If at any point there are less of a specific scum faction than there are claimed LUTHA members, then we know 100% that the LUTHA are not members of that faction running some sort of long con. The next Wolf that dies would mean that the claimed LUTHA are exactly equal in number to the known number of living Wolves, which if nothing else changes increases the possibility that the LUTHA are Wolves running a scam. > > Or at least that’s how I read it, and the logic makes sense. And as I have said, if at that point even 1 more cultist claims, and they confirm each other, then it precludes them being wolves. Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/313 "2017-02-10T19:12:56Z")
> [@paulwhoisaghost](#): > > Wolves are already there, we need one more mafia and then they can’t win without killing a cultist. You keep bringing this up as if the cultists care whether one (or even a few of them) get killed by scum. They don’t care as long as they win. > [@paulwhoisaghost](#): > > Again, I say the cultists remain tabled until one more mafia dies and then they all claim. That could be Days from now. We could just lynch sachertorte now and confirm that the cultists are real. We wouldn’t have to wait for anything. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/314 "2017-02-10T19:14:28Z")
There’s no hmmming from me. **Vote Johnny Bravo** ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/315 "2017-02-10T19:16:01Z")
> [@LightFoot](#): > > You are a claimed cultist. that is what it has to do with you. > > If another wolf dies the two of you can’t prove you are not wolves! If 3 Mafia die you can’t prove you are not Mafia! ( while you are alive) > if you don’t care about that- then it makes your “cult” more suspect > and I will back off supporting your continued life span down the road. Again, this doesn’t make sense to me. If there are 5 LUTHA, than we know they aren’t wolves so all of them claiming would prove they aren’t wolves right now, once the existing claimed cultists check and confirm two of the others. Right now there are 5 mafia. If all of the other LUTHA claimed, they numbers would be 5 and 5. How is that different that 2 and 2? Your solution is to lynch one of the LUTHA in order to rule out scum. I say, lynch scum and when the number of scum is less than the supposed LUTHA, they all claim and verify each other and it proves that they can’t be of that faction. Even if there were only 2 wolf and 2 scum left, why would that mean that LUTHA couldn’t prove they aren’t scum? There are supposed to be 3 other LUTHA out there still… either they get killed without claiming and we KNOW that LUTHA isn’t a scum ploy, or they somehow survive to see a situation with 2 wolves and 2 mafia remaining without losing even one of their members and then can claim to prove they aren’t scum. What you are saying only makes sense if there are only 2 cultists in the game. Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/316 "2017-02-10T19:16:50Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > There’s no hmmming from me. > > [olor=blue] **Vote Johnny Bravo** [/color] That’s your second post all Day. You can do better than that. Don’t be lazy. ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/317 "2017-02-10T19:18:24Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > I feel strongly that such decisions are a personal choice. Beyond “winning the game” there is the important matter of “having fun.” The other cultists should claim or not claim as they decide, not based on what I say. At this point, I feel that staying hidden is pro-Town and anti-Cult. Whatever team takes a stab at me or Crys is actively hurting their own cause. I feel it is safer out here in the open. Staying hidden is pro-Town because the hidden cultists provide cover for Town Power roles and could draw a scum kill. That would be bad for us but good for Town. > > I also disagree with you strongly about your assessment of cultist dangers. Your fear about cultists aligning with scum at endgame is short-sighted and possibly scum-motivated. The only way it is even remotely tempting for cultists to align with scum is if scum are winning. The best way for Town to prevent cultists from aligning with scum is to _not let scum take a winning position_, which should be Town’s primary goal. In other words, your primary goal has the added benefit of keeping cultists on your side. > > Your proposed alternative, which is to preemptively Lynch cultists (me), creates the very situation that you are (supposedly) trying to avoid. You want the cultists on your side, but by lynching me you de facto place me on the scum’s side (whether I wanted that or not). You waste Town resources lynching non-scum and advance the scum win condition. Town should not sacrifice mid-game position to avoid an endgame position that might not even happen. If anything, sacrificing mid-game position is more likely to create a scum lead, which is precisely what you should be avoiding. > > I don’t know if you haven’t thought this through completely or if you are scum angling to get Town to mis-step. I can tell you this, I bet Townies are wishing scum would kill Crys and me and Scum are hoping Town will Lynch or Batman Crys and me. This. I know it’s coming from a cultist, but it actually makes sense compared to what you guys are saying. Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/318 "2017-02-10T19:18:47Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > The fact that you **refuse to acknowledge that the cultists may be a threat to town** is enough to make me want to lynch you. It’s effectively a lie, and liars get lynched. That simply is not true. I openly stated that for cultists to align with scum, it would have to be endgame and scum would have to be winning. I then stated that the best way to avoid this possibility is for town to not put scum in a winning position. I then explain that trying to avoid this situation is self-defeating for Town because (1) sacrificing mid-game position to avoid an endgame situation that might not even happen is a bad trade and (2) “addressing” cultists de facto makes them part of the scum team, whether we choose so or not. In other words you can’t avoid the endgame situation you describe by killing cultists. In fact, doing so makes it happen. It’s a very strange stance for you to take that you expect a cultist to say that we are a threat to the town. I mean, you are basically demanding it. It’s all very, trappy and damned if you do, damned if you don’t isn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/319 "2017-02-10T19:20:20Z")
> [@paulwhoisaghost](#): > > This. I know it’s coming from a cultist, but it actually makes sense compared to what you guys are saying. You’ve spent the entire game defending the cultists. If they’re as advertised, I will not for a second be surprised to find that you’re one of them. ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2017, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271/320 "2017-02-10T19:23:44Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > I suppose you’re proposing a scenario where the 4 Mafia claim and then the cultists go “haha, screw you guys, we’re aligning with town.” > > I have zero reason to expect it would play out that way. It **might** , but if town lets it get to that point it means we’ve failed to check the cultists and we probably deserve to lose. > > You guys need to be addressed long before that point. What makes you think that scum are more likely to kill only town without accidentally hitting a hidden cultists before we reach your 8/5/4 situation? Or that we won’t force a hidden cultist to claim under pressure of lynch because we thought they were scum? Both are way more likely than the game being reduced to no wolves, no vig, and only 8 town remaining, with no other 3P alive, and all cultists surviving. Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-5/779271.md?page=17)