# Mafia Reunion - Day 9 **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 7, 2017, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651 "2017-03-07T21:58:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/21 "2017-03-08T02:03:39Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > That doesn’t make sense to me. What night do you think it was? And why would they wait so long to kill Guiri if they suspected he was the godfather? Why would they have killed Hooker last night, instead of Guiri, or instead of MHaye who surprisingly is still alive. Maybe the wolves killed Hooker because they are looking for Mafia to kill? Scum can’t win unless they have more members than the other faction, and so far the scum factions have been better at killing scum than the Town. That would explain why the Werewolves let Mhaye live, but not why the Mafia would let him live. Why kill a mason instead of killing a watcher? Now that the scum factions are tied, will Mafia aim at a confirmed town or will they aim at wolves? I don’t think either scum team should tolerate the existence of the other team. That’s another faction aiming to kill them with much more precision than a Town lynch. The wolves still have their Bloodhound, so they probably have a lot of information and can target a smaller group of people to hit Mafia. It was probably a mistake for Mafia to aim at confirmed town instead of wolves, while the wolves were allowed to collect information for eight Days now. And with the the remaining town roles claiming I think the wolves would have an easier time killing mafia if they wanted to. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/22 "2017-03-08T02:14:40Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Anyway, so do you guys remember this from early yesterDay? > > This smelled like bait to me so I didn’t answer it. I was hoping someone else would, then see if they died. Well nobody answered it. The obvious answer to it is that The tinkerer jammed all the switches on. > > I know this because I am the stinky and sticky one of the basement and I did so do that (jam the switches on Night 6). I felt like Biotop was crafty enough to have realized that was the answer and purposefully left off that option as a fishing attempt to flush me out. Well now I guess is the time to come out on my own terms. > > Night 2 I blocked The Consigliere and The Omega…but that was so long ago, I can’t really remember why. > > Night 6, like I said, I jammed all the switches on. > > Last Night I used my cameras to see what Biotop did on D/N7 and he did…Should I give him a chance to say what he did before continuing? > > This post is a bit rushed because I have some work to do right now, but I will be on later and am open to answering questions later (like in an hour or 2). Good game \*\*Guiri \*\*. You were never much on my radar. \*\*SNF \*\*, I didn’t do anything D7/day or night. I have never done anything on any Day/Night except flip the Doctor Seward Switch on Night 1. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/23 "2017-03-08T02:16:21Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Good game \*\*Guiri \*\*. You were never much on my radar. > > \*\*SNF \*\*, I didn’t do anything D7/day or night. I have never done anything on any Day/Night except flip the Doctor Seward Switch on Night 1. Yup, that checks out. ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/24 "2017-03-08T02:50:02Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Yup, that checks out. May I ask why/how you chose your target for your one shot? ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/25 "2017-03-08T02:53:06Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > I was actually thinking it would have been the wolves, who then saw the bounce and knew that Guiri was the godfather. > > If we take that as a given, we might be able to look back and see if anybody was trying to engineer a lynch on Guiri. That would mean saving a nightkill _and_ getting cred for taking down a mafia. Have \* you \* looked? do you remember seeing anything to lead you that direction? Curious When the SK was alive was there a cycle where the toll was smaller than it could have been? ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/26 "2017-03-08T02:59:07Z")
Like I said upthread, I thought he was baiting me. Thinking back, I should have used it on the beta wolf when he was killed, but I missed that chance and was waiting for the bodygaurd to get dead so I could use it on him instead, hoping to point me to the Godfather. But it seems we’re getting down to the wire here and it felt like I was running out of chances to use it at all. ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/27 "2017-03-08T03:01:33Z")
NETA cycle 2 and cycle 5 are possibilities but why wait after that? ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/28 "2017-03-08T03:05:30Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Like I said upthread, I thought he was baiting me. Thinking back, I should have used it on the beta wolf when he was killed, but I missed that chance and was waiting for the bodygaurd to get dead so I could use it on him instead, hoping to point me to the Godfather. But it seems we’re getting down to the wire here and it felt like I was running out of chances to use it at all. I fully expect a counter claim reading this- I don’t recall you being suspect of \*\* Biotop \*\* were you vocal about it? ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/29 "2017-03-08T03:08:44Z")
> [@LightFoot](#): > > I fully expect a counter claim reading this- > I don’t recall you being suspect of \*\* Biotop \*\* were you vocal about it? I wasn’t really suspecting him up until that post I quoted above. When i went to reply to it, I got overly terrified I was walking into a trap (which we should all know he is crafty enough to set) and I got real quiet. ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/30 "2017-03-08T03:36:02Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > I wasn’t really suspecting him up until that post I quoted above. When i went to reply to it, I got overly terrified I was walking into a trap (which we should all know he is crafty enough to set) and I got real quiet. If I read the roles right the Alpha wolf and the Godfather were the only two Scum alive at that time that didn’t need to go anywhere during their cycle- correct? and we know now that \*\* Biotop \*\* isn’t the Godfather. So do you think now that\*\* Biotop\*\* is the alpha Wolf? - Or the Mafia Mook ? or plain old vanilla Town that you were not suspect of all game until that one post? [del] OR are you and \*\* Biotop \*\* on the same team and you are risking a counter claim to make y’all look better ? [/del]\* that makes no sense \* I think I am confusing myself. You chose a player you were not suspect of with your powerful one shot possiblilty- If you are Town I don’t want to fish slap you for it but…- yes I do\> ( sorry pal) If you are Scum ( or something else we don’t know about yet ) why the hell are you risking a counter claim- besides setting up \*\* Biotop \*\* in trade. would the Wolf Tracker do that? ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/31 "2017-03-08T03:58:36Z")
> [@LightFoot](#): > > If I read the roles right the Alpha wolf and the Godfather were the only two Scum alive at that time that didn’t need to go anywhere during their cycle- correct? > > and we know now that \*\* Biotop \*\* isn’t the Godfather. > So do you think now that\*\* Biotop\*\* is the alpha Wolf? - Or the Mafia Mook ? > or plain old vanilla Town that you were not suspect of all game until that one post? [del] > > OR are you and \*\* Biotop \*\* on the same team and you are risking a counter claim to make y’all look better ? [/del]\* that makes no sense \* > > I think I am confusing myself. > > You chose a player you were not suspect of with your powerful one shot possiblilty- If you are Town I don’t want to fish slap you for it but…- yes I do\> ( sorry pal) > If you are Scum ( or something else we don’t know about yet ) why the hell are you risking a counter claim- besides setting up \*\* Biotop \*\* in trade. > would the Wolf Tracker do that? To be fair, I will always and forever have permasuspicions on Biotop. But yeah, so far this game he hasn’t really been pinging me up until that post. And that one post really pinged me. However, since nobody else stepped in to suggest that the tinkerer could have thrown all the switches on, it now seems like he may have just overlooked the possibility due to illness. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/32 "2017-03-08T04:38:49Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > To be fair, I will always and forever have permasuspicions on Biotop. But yeah, so far this game he hasn’t really been pinging me up until that post. And that one post really pinged me. However, since nobody else stepped in to suggest that the tinkerer could have thrown all the switches on, it now seems like he may have just overlooked the possibility due to illness. I should have considered the Tinkerer possibility. But it still makes the other GLaDOS switch holder a mystery. No one has claimed that second switch. Perhaps it was owned by a player who died after Day 4? Will no one else besides myself,\*\* Captain Klutz\*\*, and **Koldanar** claim control of a switch? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/33 "2017-03-08T10:59:10Z")
**LightFoot** , when did you decide to take a detailed look at **Cygnus**? ---
**Author:** ![Koldanar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/dbc845/32.png) [@Koldanar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koldanar)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/34 "2017-03-08T12:30:47Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > I should have considered the Tinkerer possibility. But it still makes the other GLaDOS switch holder a mystery. No one has claimed that second switch. Perhaps it was owned by a player who died after Day 4? > > Will no one else besides myself,\*\* Captain Klutz\*\*, and **Koldanar** claim control of a switch? At this point, are there many roles that would be switchable at all? Barring scum roles - which means any switch holders should be afraid of scum kills on them if they reveal, yes? I’d have to go back and look at the scum roles again and see what’s left. Guiri was WAY under my radar until I posted my WOW on snfalkner, and lost all suspicion on him. Guiri was pushing me HARD to find fault there. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/35 "2017-03-08T13:07:33Z")
> [@LightFoot](#): > > Have \* you \* looked? Nope, not yet. There’s a lot of week left. > [@](#): > > ``` > do you remember seeing anything to lead you that direction? > > ``` > > Curious I’m getting a real “just asking questions” from you vibe right now. The whole way this game works is that we’re able to go back and re-read as we gain more data. No, I don’t remember seeing anything to lead me in that direction. That doesn’t mean it’s automatically a bad idea to reread Guiri’s interactions. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/36 "2017-03-08T14:04:51Z")
> [@LightFoot](#): > > I fully expect a counter claim reading this- > I don’t recall you being suspect of \*\* Biotop \*\* were you vocal about it? Sometimes you are suspicious of someone without really being able to articulate an argument, so I wouldn’t read too much into that. I would be stunned with a counter claim. An unprovoked 1/1 trade is awful when you have 2 or 3 enemies sides. At any rate, I think ends our discussion of a mass claim. The Lutha are obviously going to decide for themselves if/when to reveal. The remaining Mason and Patsy have no particular value to town other than they can mostly self-confirm. There might be a time in the very late game when they can’t self-confirm, so they should claim before then, but when exactly they wish to claim is up to them. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/37 "2017-03-08T14:16:19Z")
I’m a bit concerned that LUTHA have not yet claimed. I believe that there are 5 of you, and you do not have an exclusive win, so I will not vote to lynch you. But that is only if you come forward unforced - I won’t accept a claim that comes under lynch pressure. If you want to work with town you need to demonstrate this by coming forward. **Koldanar** , what do you think your fellow cultists should do? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/38 "2017-03-08T15:02:06Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > At any rate, I think ends our discussion of a mass claim. I don’t see why. LUTHA do not need to confirm to help us gain value from claims. Here are the current living players: > [@](#): > > Confirmed Town (3) > 13. Lakai 2 - Mason > 32. MHaye - Watcher > 47. snfaulkner - Tinkerer > > Confirmed(ish) Cult > 28. Koldanar - Pontiff > > Current Scum Pool > 3. Biotop > 6. bufftabby > 7. Captain Klutz > 19. hawkeyeop > 25. Johnny Bravo > 30. LightFoot - [Not Mafia (Enderw24)] > 33. Nanook of the North Shore > 34. Nesta > 37. Plumpudding > 40. Raventhief > 44. Scathach > 46. sinjin > 50. Texcat > 55. Zeriel There are 14 players in the Scum Pool. There are six living scum. That means that we have a 43% chance of hitting scum if we just randomly shoot into the pool. Let’s look at the percentages with other claim possibilities: Non-patsy town, no lutha: 12 players in the scum pool, 50% chance of randomly hitting scum. All remaining town, no lutha: 11 players in the scum pool, 54% chance of randomly hitting scum. Non-patsy town, all Lutha: 10 players in the scum pool, 60% chance of randomly hitting scum. All remaining non-scum: 9 players in the scum pool, 67% chance of randomly hitting scum. In other words, every player who claims increases our odds of hitting scum by a significant amount. Even without LUTHA taking part. The moral of the story here is that we absolutely do not need LUTHA to sign off on a mass claim. Let them throw in with scum by hiding among them. You know what they say about laying down with dogs. We have lynched **one scum** all game. We need to do better. This is how we do better. PS: Hawkeye, you’re [still on the hook for analyzing the high volume posters and trying to figure out why they’re still alive.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20039360&postcount=71) ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/39 "2017-03-08T16:01:15Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > I don’t see why. LUTHA do not need to confirm to help us gain value from claims. > > Here are the current living players: > > There are 14 players in the Scum Pool. There are six living scum. That means that we have a 43% chance of hitting scum if we just randomly shoot into the pool. > > Let’s look at the percentages with other claim possibilities: > > Non-patsy town, no lutha: 12 players in the scum pool, 50% chance of randomly hitting scum. > > All remaining town, no lutha: 11 players in the scum pool, 54% chance of randomly hitting scum. > > Non-patsy town, all Lutha: 10 players in the scum pool, 60% chance of randomly hitting scum. > > All remaining non-scum: 9 players in the scum pool, 67% chance of randomly hitting scum. > > In other words, every player who claims increases our odds of hitting scum by a significant amount. Even without LUTHA taking part. The moral of the story here is that we absolutely do not need LUTHA to sign off on a mass claim. Let them throw in with scum by hiding among them. You know what they say about laying down with dogs. > > We have lynched **one scum** all game. We need to do better. This is how we do better. > > PS: Hawkeye, you’re [still on the hook for analyzing the high volume posters and trying to figure out why they’re still alive.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20039360&postcount=71) We are not going to lynch outside that pool of 9, whether they claim now or not. They can always claim later if it looks like they might be lynched. There is absolutely no reason for them to put a target on their back for the scum to hit. I was all for the Patsy claiming on Day One, but there are no investigators left. There is absolutely no reason for her to claim now. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651/40 "2017-03-08T16:21:14Z")
What Texcat said. I’m a bit dubious of how hard you are pushing this mass claim. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-9/781651.md?page=3)