# Mafia Reunion: Day Eleven **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 21, 2017, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716 "2017-03-21T21:22:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/21 "2017-03-22T16:10:06Z")
**Crys75** (8): [del]Guiri(262-812)[/del], [del]SunnyDaze(568-1023)[/del], HockeyMonkey(584), DiggitCamara(588), AngeloftheNorth(595), Texcat(639), [del]CaptainKlutz(640-950)[/del], snfaulkner(641); [del]jsgoddess(795-976)[/del], Hawkeyeop(803), Zeriel(860), Scathach(959) What stands out for me on the votes that you quoted were the three quick mafia votes for Crys. Do you really think more mafia piled on there? > [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > [snipped] > Now, who most wanted a Brewha lynch? He had claimed the Batman switch. If your scum team had the other switch then great, you would be very happy for a Brewha lynch. Conversely, if your team did not have the other switch then you would suppose that the other scum team had it. In this case you would rather Brewha survive, so as to not give the other scum team control over Batman. This doesn’t make sense. Giving the other scum team control over Batman would be definitely preferred to giving it to town or 3rd party, wouldn’t it? The other scum team wouldn’t be able to know who Batman was aiming at, but would probably just shut him down, just what both scum teams wanted. > [@](#): > > In all this, it is **TexCat’s** defence that stands out. This defending a liar, rather than making an easy vote for him, was one of the things that made me regard TexCat as more likely town. So now I am doing another 180 and reading her action as scum. I think you should have stuck with your first instinct. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/22 "2017-03-22T16:17:10Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > So my scum list is: > > hawkeyeop > Scathach > Texcat You’re going to want to recalculate. The following players have claimed VT: ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/23 "2017-03-22T16:19:17Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > So my scum list is: > > hawkeyeop > Scathach > Texcat You’re going to want to recalculate. The following players have claimed VT: Johnny Bravo Raventhief Plumpudding Biotop Unless one of those four is a lying patsy (I really hope that’s not the case), there is one guaranteed mafia in that list. This, by the way, is why claiming VT is useful. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/24 "2017-03-22T16:45:12Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > You’re going to want to recalculate. > > The following players have claimed VT: > > Johnny Bravo > Raventhief > Plumpudding > Biotop > > Unless one of those four is a lying patsy (I really hope that’s not the case), there is one guaranteed mafia in that list. > > This, by the way, is why claiming VT is useful. Is it just coincidence that those 4 are the 4 that are voting for me? Are you confirming that mafia is on my wagon? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/25 "2017-03-22T17:09:31Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > Are you confirming that mafia is on my wagon? This is a weird question. Do you disagree with my logic about that small list? ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/26 "2017-03-22T17:31:28Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > This is a weird question. Do you disagree with my logic about that small list? No, just pointing out that it confirms mafia is voting for me. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/27 "2017-03-22T17:34:17Z")
NETA: And while you say that there is one guaranteed mafia in that list, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to find all 3 in that list. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/28 "2017-03-22T18:11:59Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > No, just pointing out that it confirms mafia is voting for me. The way you worded it made it sound like you were trying to catch me in some sort of “Johnny Bravo confirmed the existence of a mafia! PIS!” gotcha. Regardless, it’s not \*actually \*confirmed. Just highly probable. The niggling problem is that the Patsy might have claimed VT as a gambit. Funny how attempts to pin this stuff down get short-circuited by that pesky claim, innit? > [@TexCat](#): > > NETA: And while you say that there is one guaranteed mafia in that list, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to find all 3 in that list. Really? I would personally be floored to find that every remaining scum piled onto the same wagon within three hours of one another and with only a single other vote to provide them cover. Utterly astonished. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/29 "2017-03-22T18:25:42Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > The way you worded it made it sound like you were trying to catch me in some sort of “Johnny Bravo confirmed the existence of a mafia! PIS!” gotcha. > > Regardless, it’s not \*actually \*confirmed. Just highly probable. The niggling problem is that the Patsy might have claimed VT as a gambit. Funny how attempts to pin this stuff down get short-circuited by that pesky claim, innit? > > Really? I would personally be floored to find that every remaining scum piled onto the same wagon within three hours of one another and with only a single other vote to provide them cover. Utterly astonished. Yeah, I tend to word everything as a question. The socratic method was very big when I was going to school. Really? Did you see the first three votes on Crys above? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/30 "2017-03-22T18:36:01Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > Really? Did you see the first three votes on Crys above? Yep. Not super comparable. [ul] [li]Every single Mafia was alive at that point, so those three votes didn’t even represent half their team.[/li][li]The votes were spread out over a longer period of time.[/li][li]Crys was not the only player under pressure at the time.[/li][li]That was SunnyDaze’s fourth(?) vote of the day.[/li][/ul] What you’re suggesting is that all three remaining scum, unpressured, jumped onto the same player at the beginning of the day within a few hours of one another. I would be very, very surprised to find out that’s the case - especially in a game where scum can communicate with one another during the day. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/31 "2017-03-22T19:16:42Z")
Maybe not exactly the same, but it does show that mafia is not afraid to start a mislynch wagon, and we know that there is at least one scum there. I hope you wouldn’t be surprised to find at least 2 mafia in there. We are currently at 11 players, 3 mafia, 2 lutha, and 6 town. If we mislynch me today, it will be 3-2-4 tomorrow. Mafia could be trying to mislynch me and hope that Lutha sides with them – they would have the numbers for a win in 2 days. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/32 "2017-03-22T19:57:24Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > NETA: And while you say that there is one guaranteed mafia in that list, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to find all 3 in that list. That would suprise me, considering I know I’m vanilla and my two strongest town leans, Johnny Bravo and raventhief is on your wagon. The only unconfirmed I could lean scum on is Biotop. All three scum on your wagon would be nuclear, makes no sense and as Johnny pointed at upthread, would be wildly different than the situation with brewha Day 2. We’re also at a point where bussing might be a viable option for scum, so I don’t see why “confirming” a scum is voting for you says anything in favour of you being town. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/33 "2017-03-23T01:41:59Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > \*\*Cookies \*\* claimed the other Batman switch [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20024782&postcount=280). At least that’s how I read it. Okay, so **Cookies** had the other Batman switch. So the wolves didn’t have it, but didn’t care about lynching the other switchholder. But it also means that mafia did not have the switch. Which gives them motivation to keep \*\*Brewha \*\*alive. I was surprised to see that both **Guiri** and **Sunny Daze** defended the lie rather than voting for him. Sure, you might not vote for someone in order to spread out your team’s votes, but this wasn’t just not voting, it was actual defending. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/34 "2017-03-23T01:47:20Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > I think you should have stuck with your first instinct. My first instinct was that you were scum. It was your defence of **Brewha** that gave me pause. I could not see a scum motivation for such an action, so I had you in the leaning-town column. Now I have found a scum motivation, and the fact that both **Guiri** and **Sunny Daze** did the same thing. I was especially surprised at **Guiri’s** actions - he was happy to vote for **Colby’s** ‘slip’, but chose to defend a lie. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/35 "2017-03-23T01:53:38Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > You’re going to want to recalculate. > > The following players have claimed VT: > > Johnny Bravo > Raventhief > Plumpudding > Biotop > > Unless one of those four is a lying patsy (I really hope that’s not the case), there is one guaranteed mafia in that list. > > This, by the way, is why claiming VT is useful. You actually suggested that the Patsy might claim vanilla, in [Night8.189](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20046397&postcount=189). Although now it is definitely, absolutely, time for the Patsy to claim. Scum now know everyone’s alignment, so the only people being kept in the dark is fellow town. Coming forward will greatly help to unravel the game, being one less person to investigate and one more trusted voice. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/36 "2017-03-23T14:46:28Z")
**Johnny Bravo** , I have leaned you towards Town most all game. In the only two previous games we have played together, you were aggressive your one time as Town, but you were cautious the other time as Scum. You are aggressive this game, sounding all the right notes. However, unless I am dead, if \*\*TexCat \*\*flips Town I will be voting for you toMorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/37 "2017-03-23T14:59:47Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > **Johnny Bravo** , I have leaned you towards Town most all game. In the only two previous games we have played together, you were aggressive your one time as Town, but you were cautious the other time as Scum. You are aggressive this game, sounding all the right notes. > > However, unless I am dead, if \*\*TexCat \*\*flips Town I will be voting for you toMorrow. This reads like the setup of somebody who knows how Texcat is going to flip, and the “unless I am dead” bit is giving me serious hinkies. What set of circumstances would make you (or any VT) a more viable target than our confirmed power roles? That’s striking me as unnecessary “look at me considering the townie perspective” hedging. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/38 "2017-03-23T15:02:34Z")
> [@Captain\_Klutz](#): > > \*\*So my scum list is: > > hawkeyeop > Scathach > Texcat Going back to this - we know that there are a maximum of two scum in this list. We also know that Scathach and hawkeyeop have yet to participate today. Scathach hasn’t posted at all and hawkeyeop has only posted to ask for clarification on a pretty obvious typo on my part. Is this a case of two scum not worrying themselves overmuch about the current train? This plus Biotop’s last post are giving me pause. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/39 "2017-03-23T15:18:28Z")
* * * > [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > This reads like the setup of somebody who knows how Texcat is going to flip, and the “unless I am dead” bit is giving me serious hinkies. What set of circumstances would make you (or any VT) a more viable target than our confirmed power roles? That’s striking me as unnecessary “look at me considering the townie perspective” hedging. I don’t think I am going to be dead. I added that line at the last minute because I thought someone could say "Aha! **Biotop** knows he is going to be alive tomorrow. No win posting. I will stay quiet and worry about toMorrow when it happens. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/40 "2017-03-23T15:19:56Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > * * * > > I don’t think I am going to be dead. I added that line at the last minute because I thought someone could say “Aha! **Biotop** knows he is going to be alive tomorrow.” No win posting. I will stay quiet and worry about toMorrow when it happens. Edited to add the missing quotation mark. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716.md?page=3)