# Mafia Reunion: Day Eleven

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716>\
**Category:** Thread Games\
**Created:** [March 21, 2017, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716 "2017-03-21T21:22:56Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 4

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**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/61 "2017-03-23T19:59:23Z")

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My vote stays.

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**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/62 "2017-03-23T21:00:10Z")

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> [@Plumpudding](#):
>
> My vote stays.

That’s it? No further comment?

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**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/63 "2017-03-23T21:02:19Z")

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> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#):
>
> Okay, again. You keep ignoring this.
> 
> **Why would you risk putting town into LyLo?**

Okay, again. It won’t matter. Even if it is LyLo tomorrow, you’ll have a sure lynch in Hawkeye.

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**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/64 "2017-03-23T21:39:47Z")

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So texcat, are you saying you identified scum other than hawkeye, so your “blaze of glory” will be directed elsewhere? why wouldn’t you take out identified scum with your patsy-shot?

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**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/65 "2017-03-23T23:34:44Z")

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My **TexCat** vote stays.

If hawkeyeop is scum then:

- he sees a townie texcat looking likely to be lynched
- rather than agreeing with it, he fake claims. This all but guarantees a counterclaim, a derailment of the existing townie lynch and a guaranteed scum death (even if the real Patsy is lynched)

If TexCat is scum then

- there is a possibilty of getting one more mislynch. You will still die, but you might take a a townie down first

**Hawkeyeop** as scum makes no sense. **TexCat** , feel free to explain why a scummy hawkeyeop would false claim.

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**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/66 "2017-03-23T23:43:15Z")

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> [@TexCat](#):
>
> unvote
> 
> vote: Hawkeye
> 
> Well I do have a plan to get lynched in a blaze of glory, but I was hoping it would be a little later in the game. I am Patsy. Guiri guessed it right on N0 or D1 whenever it was. I won’t kill you Hawkeye, as your lie is now exposed. And you are sure to die tomorrow.

(BTW, you hadn’t voted yet, so your ‘unvote’ wasn’t necessary)

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you and **Guiri** arranged that in order to provide some credence to a later false Patsy claim.

Also, if you are the Patsy, it makes no sense to shoot into the unknowns when you have a guaranteed scum exposed.

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**Author:** ![sinjin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@sinjin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinjin)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/67 "2017-03-24T03:37:02Z")

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> [@Captain\_Klutz](#):
>
> (BTW, you hadn’t voted yet, so your ‘unvote’ wasn’t necessary)
> 
> I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you and **Guiri** arranged that in order to provide some credence to a later false Patsy claim.
> 
> Also, if you are the Patsy, it makes no sense to shoot into the unknowns when you have a guaranteed scum exposed.

Actually it kind of does. Because if Texcat turns out to really be the patsy hawkeyeop will be insta-lynched tomorrow. No LYOL unless she hits town. If she’s mafia we have still have another confirmed town, maybe. Or it could be a hail mary pass and both are lying. Heh.

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**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/68 "2017-03-24T10:43:38Z")

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> [@TexCat](#):
>
> That’s it? No further comment?

You’re continuing to do what made me suspicious of you in the first place: Being dismissive and ignoring questions and suspicions.

I find your claim less believable than Hawkeyeop’s. He posted a fairly detailed account of how he’s been playing, under no pressure. You immediately counterclaim with a few short sentences detailing an anti-town plan shooting in the blind among the unclaimed, and you’re claiming under pressure.

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/69 "2017-03-24T13:58:14Z")

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Texcat, it seems fairly obvious that your claim is fake and that you’re giving your fellow scum an opportunity to be townie by slamming you.

But, in the off-chance that you’re actually the patsy, for the love of god please kill hawkeye at EoD. It doesn’t matter that we could just lynch him tomorrow. That’s a wasted day and an extra death at the hands of scum. Be townie. Don’t risk throwing the game. End transmission.

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**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/70 "2017-03-24T14:34:25Z")

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Huh. Well that was extremely unexpected.

Not to Spartacus here, but **I’m the Patsy.**

I can only assume this is some kind of plot to make Hawkeyeop look good since Texcat was going down anyway?

Why I didn’t claim

> [@Mafia Reunion - Day 10](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-10/782191/22):
>
> The patsy would be an idiot to claim right now. The only power left is the kill if lynched.

Trying to ask if I should claim

> [@Mafia Reunion: Day Seven](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-seven/780419/217):
>
> Just curious since people seem to be very willing to accept LUTHA as claimed. If so then a full LUTHA/mason/patsy claim should be a good thing. I’m not particularly willing to accept LUTHA but I’m obviously in the minority.  
> .

> [@Mafia Reunion: Day Seven](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-seven/780419/210):
>
> What makes you pro a LUTHA claim but not mason + patsy?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/71 "2017-03-24T14:35:48Z")

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I honestly thought this was the perfect role for me since I always get lynched, but for once no one even seems to be looking at me. I must admit, it is somewhat typical.

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**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/72 "2017-03-24T14:38:58Z")

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Oh, and vote \*\*Texcat \*\* since she’s in the lead. Although obviously I’m fine with either.

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/73 "2017-03-24T15:09:12Z")

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Well, this is interesting.\* Every member of the previously unclaimed pool has claimed patsy. This obviously makes it very easy for Texcat, if she’s telling the truth. She has two guaranteed picks.

All players have now claimed. Here is the unconfirmed pool.

**Vanilla Town**  
Johnny Bravo  
Raventhief  
Plumpudding  
Biotop

**Patsy**  
hawkeyeop  
texcat  
scathach

We now know that there are two scum in the patsy pool. That means we also know that there is only one scum in the VT pool. Previously, all we knew for certain was that there was a minimum of one scum in the first pool.

Provided we don’t lynch an anti-town patsy who chooses to shoot randomly, we are guaranteed to get one mafia today and one mafia tomorrow.

We’ll have plenty to chew on tomorrow, at least. It shouldn’t be an autolynch of hawkeyeop. Best case scenario is still lynching the scum over the patsy.

For the moment, it would be helpful if both hawkeyeop and Texcat would weigh in on why they think there’s now a **third** patsy claim and how they interpret it.

\*by which I mean “what the fucking fuck?”

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/74 "2017-03-24T16:03:53Z")

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\*by which I mean “what the fucking fuck?”  
[/QUOTE]

I agree with this interpretation… My only theory is that this is a desperate ploy from the scum to recruit the cultists to join them, but that doesn’t even make sense.

Lets run through the numbers:

We are at

T-C-M  
6-2-3

Assuming we lynch texcat and scum kill a confirmed townie we are at 9 players tomorrow.

T-C-M  
5-2-2

Now lets say I as the patsy get lynched tomorrow. I would take out scathach obviously with my kill. Mafia would kill another townie leaving us at.

T-C-M  
3-2-1

So at that point the remaining mafia could combine with the cultists to force a tie. If a tie means no lynch (I don’t recall the rules on ties if there is only one lynch to occur) then the mafia could kill a townie and have numbers for the rest of the game. Still even in case, if cultists are being truthful, it seems much easier for them to just win with town. Maybe I trust Biotop’s numbers and think they need to do this, but this seems absurdly risking to me.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/75 "2017-03-24T16:06:51Z")

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Also, I’m happy to share my role pm, but I don’t want to help other fake claimants create false ones. I suggest we all post role pms and let mhaye or captain choose the order.

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**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/76 "2017-03-24T16:12:42Z")

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> [@Hawkeyeop](#):
>
> Also, I’m happy to share my role pm, but I don’t want to help other fake claimants create false ones. I suggest we all post role pms and let mhaye or captain choose the order.

The Patsy role pm is in the open document, so that really doesn’t help.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/77 "2017-03-24T16:14:52Z")

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> [@raventhief](#):
>
> The Patsy role pm is in the open document, so that really doesn’t help.

Doh. Ignore that, I totally forgot that they were public. It has been a long game.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/78 "2017-03-24T16:15:23Z")

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LOL. I suspect that all of us can copy the public PM.

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**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/79 "2017-03-24T16:51:47Z")

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> [@TexCat](#):
>
> LOL. I suspect that all of us can copy the public PM.

Liar! A patsy could never handle the complex task of copy and pasting.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2017, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/80 "2017-03-24T17:25:32Z")

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I think Mafia is just messing with us just for the hell of it. I see no reason not to lynch **TexCat**. It’s all a big distraction. We go 3 months without a Patsy claim and then we get 3 Patsies in less than 24 hours. It makes no sense.

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