# Mafia Reunion: Day Eleven **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [March 21, 2017, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716 "2017-03-21T21:22:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 19
**Author:** ![Captain\_Klutz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captain_klutz/32/4993_2.png) [@Captain\_Klutz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Klutz)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716/19 "2017-03-22T14:16:19Z")
\*\*Who had the other Batman switch? \*\* I’ve been looking at the **Brewha** brouhaha on Day 2. Not much was happening that Day, until Brewha, Chrys and the switches took over the discussion. It started when Chronos pointed out Brewha’s lie and voted him. Lots of people followed. There were also lots of votes for Chrys. Late in the Day there was a sudden rush on ToeJam, with many people moving their votes from Brewha and Chrys. Brewha was the final lynch, but it was very close. Now, who most wanted a Brewha lynch? He had claimed the Batman switch. If your scum team had the other switch then great, you would be very happy for a Brewha lynch. Conversely, if your team did not have the other switch then you would suppose that the other scum team had it. In this case you would rather Brewha survive, so as to not give the other scum team control over Batman. Here are the votes (just the top 3 vote getters. The full count is further up the page if you want to check it out): > [@](#): > > **brewha** (16): [del]bufftabby(373-417)[/del], Chronos(538), [del]Biotop(543-909)[/del], BoozaholSquid(556), Cometothe…Cookies(575), [del]sachertorte(576-913)[/del], [del]HookerChemical(621-688)[/del], bufftabby(622), DrainBead(638), [del]raventhief(646-1002)[/del], paulwhoisaghost(703), Khameleon(716), Lakai(720), [del]HookerChemical(722-988)[/del], Meeko(726), ToeJam(730), Crys75(743), JohnnyBravo(767), Prof. Pepperwinkle(794), BillMc(947), TotalLost (957), InnerStickler(1033) > > **ToeJam** (14): [del]raventhief(31-597)[/del], IdleThoughts(32), [del]Sunny Daze(34-318)[/del], Biotop(909), sachertorte(913), CaptainKlutz(950), sinjin(955), HookerChemical(988), guiri(995), brewha(998), ThingFish(1000), raventhief(1002), Sunny Daze (1023), MHaye(1036), jsgoddess(1038), nesta(1039) > > **Crys75** (8): [del]Guiri(262-812)[/del], [del]SunnyDaze(568-1023)[/del], HockeyMonkey(584), DiggitCamara(588), AngeloftheNorth(595), Texcat(639), [del]CaptainKlutz(640-950)[/del], snfaulkner(641); [del]jsgoddess(795-976)[/del], Hawkeyeop(803), Zeriel(860), Scathach(959) Interestingly, there are no known mafia on the Brewha wagon. The wolf votes are spread out a bit, but they had three voting for Brewha. Brewha was a safe vote. It was easily justifiable. But mafia certainly appeared to keep clear. What about Godfather **Guiri**? What was his opinion of the whole Brewha thing? Curiously, he didn’t say much about it. His first mention was in 809, where he defends Brewha and disparages Chrys: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day Two](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/809): > > Paul, you’re voting brewha because you suspect he’s scum trying to find either batman or the other batman switch holder, right? And you’re not voting Crys because she’s claimed non-exclusive 3rd party who is not a threat to town, and there’s no scum motivation for her claim? > > I get the first bit, still seems like an overly risky ploy to identify a player who so far has not killed scum and usually hurts town more than not. > > As for Crys, so little of her claim makes sense - we are clearly missing her real motivation - investigating Drain, when there was a massive pool of non-claimants, not claiming D1 when invited to, not stepping in to save Colby, Toejam or Lakai but considering brewha worth the risk for no clear reason, confusing/misreading the role her switch controls. > > Brewha, it’s asking a lot to forgive that one lie… Then 951 he says that he didn’t find either lynch leader [Brewha and Chrys] likely to be scum: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day Two](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/951): > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by Drain Bead > > I’m not a huge fan of this vote. We have a claimed third-party and a liar out there, and you’re voting a one-off? I understand wanting to get your suspicions out there, but there are better targets toDay. That vote could be saved for later. Making the case is fine, voicing suspicion is fine, but this vote just makes it less likely that we can multi-lynch, and I think offing both brewha and crys toDay would be pro-town, because we’d learn more from it. If all else fails, we can try to Vig the runner-up, but with potential Vig switches out there, that might not be an option. > > I was voting Crys, and evaluated both lynch leaders and their claims, and found that I don’t think either of them very likely to be scum. Every vote on a new candidate is a one-off until others get a chance to review it, looking at D1, I suspect we could still muscle up enough votes for a new contender. I’ll also evaluate any other candidates as we near EoD and will consider moving if there’s a better one. Also, if we get close to the deadline and we’re missing just one or two votes for the second lynch, I’ll certainly re-evaluate the potential information gain. In 961 again lends some support to Brewha: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day Two](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/961): > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by BillMC > > But why did brewha feel the need to apparently fabricate a description of his switch - the mods have said they all behave the same. I really don’t follow Brewha’s logic, the only thing in his favour is him coming forward to clarify the fact that the scum don’t hold all the town switches…but that clarification is only true if brewha is town. > > Did he fabricate a description? Klutz’s quote looks like mods confirmed the PMs are different but say the same thing In addition, in 986 **TexCat** says that Brewha’s lie is not lynch worthy: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day Two](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/986): > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by Drain Bead > > I don’t see a plausible reason to post that lie in the first place. I still haven’t seen a good explanation of why he didn’t just say nothing at all on the switch subject. > > [Post 560](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19936225&postcount=560) > > YesterDay, Chronos speculated that the switches were held by opposite factions. > Brewha knew that was not true. Brewha posted that he didn’t think that was a good assumption to make. (But added that he didn’t have any evidence.) > > I can see the townie motivation to not let bad assumptions continue. And I still don’t think that saying you don’t have evidence, when you are not ready to claim, is much of a lie. Obviously, YMMV. And in 991, mafiate **Sunny Daze** says the same: > [@Mafia Reunion - Day Two](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/991): > > Considering everything, including the late night discussion which I will NOT repost on third-parties, I am also moving my vote. > > I will say that I am also of the belief that **Brewha** ’s lie while at at time when he was not yet ready to claim is not much of a lie. I wish he had been clearer when he did reveal BUT he did come forward, and the information is important. I will not vote Brewha. > > Unvote Crys > > ToeJam It really looks like mafia did not want a Brewha lynch. But the wolves were happy with it. It’s rather likely that the other Batman switch was held by the wolves. So, looking at the Brewha wagon, there are 3 unknowns: **Biotop** , **raventhief** and **JohnnyBravo**. Biotop and raventhief unvoted, but JohnnyBravo stayed. I’m putting JohnnyBravo as Least Likely To Be Scum (actually, I have thought that for a fair while. This is just some more supporting evidence). Biotop and raventhief are another matter. Biotop’s vote switch to ToeJam was the start of the ToeJam rush. It was actually a one off at the time, so looking fairly unlikely to make a difference. Raventhief’s was a fair bit later (9th vote). But I am inclined to give both Biotop and raventhief some non-mafia credit. Another interesting post from Guiri is 1060, where he finds **Raventhief’s** vote switch to be particularly noteworthy (although it’s hard to say whether he is smudging someone, or distancing himself from a fellow mafiate): > [@Mafia Reunion - Day Two](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1060): > > Ha! > > I agree, this will be interesting to analyze, especially once we have brewha’s reveal. I guess the ones that stand out to me are Raven’s switch off brewha and Inner and nesta’s drive-by. It seems there were too many late votes for a failed effort to save a scumbag though? > > As for the votes and unvotes, I don’t think there was a good chance of crys reaching the threshold for second lynch, we came much closer with the brewha/toejam face off. > > And I see an error in my vote count, Lightfoot had a vote on Pleo which is there but Pleo is displayed as having 0 votes. In all this, it is **TexCat’s** defence that stands out. This defending a liar, rather than making an easy vote for him, was one of the things that made me regard TexCat as more likely town. So now I am doing another 180 and reading her action as scum. So, of the unknowns: Biotop hawkeyeop JohnnyBravo Plumpudding Raventhief Scathach Texcat I have JohnnyBravo as most likely town, with Biotop and Raventhief as mostly-leaning town. Of the others I have Plumpudding as less likely mafia, due to Sunny Daze’s repeated votes for him. So my scum list is: hawkeyeop Scathach Texcat (I note in passing that these 3 have not yet voted, the other 4 unknowns have voted) So, after all that, **Vote TexCat** --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-eleven/782716)._