# Mafia Reunion - Day One **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [January 7, 2017, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577 "2017-01-07T22:01:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 65
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1281 "2017-01-16T04:57:37Z")
> [@LightFoot](#): > > so… Mafia targeted Normal? why? We don’t know that the Mafia targeted Normal…though I do agree that seems the most likely scenario at this point. She was the most prolific poster during Day 1, but unlike some of the other more ‘talkative’ folks, came under little to no suspicion. It’s possible that she said some things that ‘bothered’ the Mafia enough to decide that she needed to become dead, and they couldn’t count on the Town to do it for them. Her votes on Day 1: [del]Boozahol Squid, P.I. (102-147) ToeJam (147-322) septimus (322-714) Pleonast (824-1011)[/del] ToeJam (1011) ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1282 "2017-01-16T04:58:44Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Here is the last vote count we have. I realize a lot happened after that – mainly Toejam made a big run – but we know that wasn’t scum-motivated. How do we know it wasn’t Scum-motivated? ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1283 "2017-01-16T05:02:05Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > How do we know it wasn’t Scum-motivated? Because\*\*\* Lakai \*_was Town._ Once he got ahead by 7 votes, why would scum bother to run up an eleventh-hour wagon against him. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1284 "2017-01-16T05:04:17Z")
> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > We do? > > I’m equally dubious of the rest of your analysis of bandwagons, specifically the ones with what sure sound like conclusions and not wild ass guesses at a few plausible possibilities, which seems much more prudent. I’m dubious of your lurking all Day and coming in with an attitude. What problems, specifically, do you have with my analysis? ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1285 "2017-01-16T05:04:38Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Uh, yes, we do. You think scum were trying to save **Lakai?** 😕 Firstly…sure, why not? Maybe \*\*ToeJam \*\*and \*\*Lakai \*\*are both Town, and Scum was driving both the wagons. Second, remember that in this game the “Scum” is composed of two separate groups, which cannot coordinate with each other. Maybe the Wolves spearheaded the Lakai effort, and the Mafia went after ToeJam. Or maybe you’re correct, and the ToeJam votes were entirely spearheaded by Town. It’s impossible to say at this point…the only thing we can be certain of is that we really can’t be certain. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1286 "2017-01-16T05:12:50Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Uh, yes, we do. You think scum were trying to save **Lakai?** 😕 No. What I’m saying is that early game bandwagons can form and dissolve for all kinds of chaotic and random reasons that have nothing to do with coordinated efforts toward or away from anything. But from a risk analysis perspective, you also can’t just rule out when coordination might be there. Hypothetically speaking, anti-town factions might have been striving for a ToeJam lynch but the wagon on Lakai just crossed the line first full of Townie’s who figured losing a claimed Vanilla Town wasn’t enough of a disincentive not to vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![Boozahol\_Squid\_P.I](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/d9b06d/32.png) [@Boozahol\_Squid\_P.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boozahol_Squid_P.I)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1287 "2017-01-16T05:13:11Z")
> [@Colby11](#): > > Instead, I am out here fighting for my life, and singing songs in the lounge. Apparently we have a karaoke machine. I knew I should have torn that thing out. Well, Day One sucked. That’s bad for us, but it’s good for the bar receipts. In hopes of a brighter Day Two (and if I can get the Wolves drunk enough, a bloodless Night One,) the bar has a special on the Brighter Sun. Two ounces of light rum One ounce of triple sec a dash of citrus bitters Shaken over ice, strained, poured into a wooden chalice made in the likeness of the Holy Grail from the third Indiana Jones move And filled with sparkling lemonade. Remember kids, never shake a carbonated beverage. It’s a messy proposal. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1288 "2017-01-16T05:14:00Z")
As someone whom\*\* Normal\*\* wanted to [“snuggle so hard”](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19917284&postcount=824), I would caution against trying to figure out why the scum chose the kill they did, especially when we don’t even know for sure which was the scum kill. I’ve never seen it be helpful to Town. I think the list of Normal’s votes is helpful because she’s a good player and we know she was Town, but that’s it. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1289 "2017-01-16T05:14:10Z")
Or what burby said ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1290 "2017-01-16T05:20:12Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > I’m dubious of your lurking all Day and coming in with an attitude. What problems, specifically, do you have with my analysis? It is not attitude, it is logic, paranoia, and risk aversion in a game designed to make us lie and manipulate each other. It is totally your prerogative to be dubious about my posting frequency and substance, and even my attitude, but I assure you the last one is a waste of time. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1291 "2017-01-16T05:22:37Z")
> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > No. What I’m saying is that early game bandwagons can form and dissolve for all kinds of chaotic and random reasons that have nothing to do with coordinated efforts toward or away from anything. But from a risk analysis perspective, you also can’t just rule out when coordination might be there. > > Hypothetically speaking, anti-town factions might have been striving for a ToeJam lynch but the wagon on Lakai just crossed the line first full of Townie’s who figured losing a claimed Vanilla Town wasn’t enough of a disincentive not to vote for him. Why would “anti-town factions” have been “striving for a\*\* ToeJam\*\* lynch”? All scum care about is that someone other than them gets lynched. I can actually see the early-game **ToeJam** wagon as an attempt to save **Colby** , but why would scum late in the game care about whether \*\*ToeJam \*\*was lynched instead of **Lakai?** If they think **ToeJam** is a PR or member of the other team, they can just kill him without having to risk exposure by manipulating the vote. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1292 "2017-01-16T05:24:38Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > As someone whom\*\* Normal\*\* wanted to [“snuggle so hard”](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19917284&postcount=824), I would caution against trying to figure out why the scum chose the kill they did, especially when we don’t even know for sure which was the scum kill. I’ve never seen it be helpful to Town. > > I think the list of Normal’s votes is helpful because she’s a good player and we know she was Town, but that’s it. This is solid risk aversion. Why not apply it to bandwagon assumptions too? ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1293 "2017-01-16T05:25:38Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Why would “anti-town factions” have been “striving for a\*\* ToeJam\*\* lynch”? All scum care about is that someone other than them gets lynched. I can actually see the early-game **ToeJam** wagon as an attempt to save **Colby** , but why would scum late in the game care about whether \*\*ToeJam \*\*was lynched instead of **Lakai?** If they think **ToeJam** is a PR or member of the other team, they can just kill him without having to risk exposure by manipulating the vote. I don’t know ergo I’m not going to rule it out. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1294 "2017-01-16T05:28:36Z")
> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > It is not attitude, it is logic, paranoia, and risk aversion in a game designed to make us lie and manipulate each other. > > It is totally your prerogative to be dubious about my posting frequency and substance, and even my attitude, but I assure you the last one is a waste of time. Great. specifically, what logical, paranoid, risk averse problems do you have with my analysis? ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1295 "2017-01-16T05:30:43Z")
> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > This is solid risk aversion. Why not apply it to bandwagon assumptions too? What are you even talking about? Why do you have such a problem with me trying to do vote analysis? You act like I had declared **Colby** confirmed Town or something. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1296 "2017-01-16T05:34:13Z")
> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > I don’t know ergo I’m not going to rule it out. To quote **Meeko** , you sound like you probably vote Republican. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1297 "2017-01-16T05:48:47Z")
Thing Fish, the problem with you analysis is very simple; you said “we know (the run of votes on ToeJam) wasn’t scum-motivated”…which is simply incorrect. We do not \*\*\*know \*\*\*anything of the sort. You may \*suspect \*that to be the case; you may have a good argument supporting your suspicion, but you can’t \*know \*it. The only people in this game who know anything at this stage are Scum - and with two different Scum factions, even they know less than they would in a ‘normal’ game. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1298 "2017-01-16T06:05:52Z")
Fine. My use of the word “know” was inappropriate. It is theoretically possible that one or both scum teams may have decided, late in Day One with a Townie on the block, that they wanted to risk being noticed coordinating their votes in order to lynch someone else. I am not aware of any game in the history of Mafia where this has ever happened; every scum team I have ever seen has attempted to disperse themselves inconspicuously among the voting blocs if they don’t have to rescue a comrade. But you are quite correct that we certainly cannot completely rule out the possibility. Unfortunately, the nature of the game is such that we must often make decisions based on less than perfect information. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1299 "2017-01-16T06:07:39Z")
> [@Boozahol\_Squid\_P.I](#): > > I knew I should have torn that thing out. > > Well, Day One sucked. That’s bad for us, but it’s good for the bar receipts. > > In hopes of a brighter Day Two (and if I can get the Wolves drunk enough, a bloodless Night One,) the bar has a special on the Brighter Sun. > > Two ounces of light rum > One ounce of triple sec > a dash of citrus bitters > Shaken over ice, strained, poured into a wooden chalice made in the likeness of the Holy Grail from the third Indiana Jones move > And filled with sparkling lemonade. > > Remember kids, never shake a carbonated beverage. It’s a messy proposal. I’ll have one of those…or whatever cheap piss beer you have on tap thst isn’t bud light. ---
**Author:** ![sinjin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@sinjin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinjin)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1300 "2017-01-16T06:13:24Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > To quote **Meeko** , you sound like you probably vote Republican. (oog) Part of me is laughing my ass off because of who you addressed this comment to. But the better part of me is creepy insulted. Please let us not go down that road. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577.md?page=64) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577.md?page=66)