# Mafia Reunion - Day One **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [January 7, 2017, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577 "2017-01-07T22:01:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 66
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1301 "2017-01-16T06:18:36Z")
> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > Or what burby said Burby? Is that suburban plankton? ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1302 "2017-01-16T06:28:33Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Firstly…sure, why not? Maybe \*\*ToeJam \*\*and \*\*Lakai \*\*are both Town, and Scum was driving both the wagons. > > Second, remember that in this game the “Scum” is composed of two separate groups, which cannot coordinate with each other. Maybe the Wolves spearheaded the Lakai effort, and the Mafia went after ToeJam. > > Or maybe you’re correct, and the ToeJam votes were entirely spearheaded by Town. It’s impossible to say at this point…the only thing we can be certain of is that we really can’t be certain. Wait. When did I say the ToeJam votes were “entirely spearheaded by Town”? I don’t believe I did say that. I said that the late swing towards ToeJam AS A WHOLE wasn’t scum motivated, and you are twisting that to suggest I said that every single one of those voters were Town? The presence of two scum teams makes gross vote manipulation less likely, not more. Each team has only seven members, so to believe with brewha that scum moved the Lakai vote ahead of Colby, you would have to believe that almost all of the wave of voters which took Lakai from 7 to 14 votes were members of the same scum team, none of whom had previously put any effort into building a counterwagon to Colby. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1303 "2017-01-16T06:31:39Z")
> [@sinjin](#): > > (oog) Part of me is laughing my ass off because of who you addressed this comment to. But the better part of me is creepy insulted. Please let us not go down that road. You’re right. Retracted with apologies. (Where’s the “hug it out” smiley?) ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1304 "2017-01-16T06:36:05Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Burby? Is that suburban plankton? Yeah, that’s me. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1305 "2017-01-16T06:39:27Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Yeah, that’s me. Why not planky? Or ankty? Feel free to ignore these questions. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1306 "2017-01-16T07:02:52Z")
> [@sinjin](#): > > (oog) Part of me is laughing my ass off because of who you addressed this comment to. But the better part of me is creepy insulted. Please let us not go down that road. I can freak **Cookies** out with my memory… If my memory serves… But I’m not sure I want to do that. Something about the Supereme Court, and Cinnamon. :eek: Unless I totally misremembered Cookies. That could happen too. I don’t know… I meet someone, and if they remind me too much of someone else, my brain kinda kicks the person I knew longer “out” of my brain. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1307 "2017-01-16T07:13:25Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Why not planky? Or ankty? > > Feel free to ignore these questions. Well, now those names would just be _silly_, wouldn’t they? ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1308 "2017-01-16T07:20:37Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Well, now those names would just be _silly_, wouldn’t they? Yes, they’d be right out. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1309 "2017-01-16T07:50:22Z")
Thing Fish, I think making too many assumptions can expose Town to increased risk. I try to mitigate that risk by not making prematurely narrow assumptions in particular. I think this is a similar strategy as to why you suggest that people should avoid too much conjecture as to who Scum attacked or why, don’t you think? I have no idea who first coined ‘burby’ but I am suddenly curious and may go play with some way back searches. Unauthorized Cinnamon was going to be my band name. Hat tip to a Deadwood episode with that title and plot point. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 9:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1310 "2017-01-16T09:06:40Z")
Speaking of band names I just accidentally came up with while describing some shitty bar where I was supposed to meet someone: Infectious Anus ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1311 "2017-01-16T11:36:09Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Well, now those names would just be _silly_, wouldn’t they? How about Sburplkty? ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1312 "2017-01-16T12:07:23Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > To quote **Meeko** , you sound like you probably vote Republican. This is really \*really \*\*\*\*REALLY \*\*\*not cool. ---
**Author:** ![Hockey\_Monkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a183cd/32.png) [@Hockey\_Monkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hockey_Monkey)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1313 "2017-01-16T12:14:04Z")
> [@Hockey\_Monkey](#): > > This is really \*really \*\*\*\*REALLY \*\*\*not cool. And on reading further you retracted. To be clear it isn’t cool for anyone…Meeko, you, whoever… ---
**Author:** ![Crys75](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3da27b/32.png) [@Crys75](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crys75)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1314 "2017-01-16T13:05:01Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > To quote **Meeko** , you sound like you probably vote Republican. Yes please let’s avoid the political road lest we forget what we are supposed to be doing. Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1315 "2017-01-16T14:14:28Z")
> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > I have no idea who first coined ‘burby’ but I am suddenly curious and may go play with some way back searches. I remember it as being Peeker. (But my memory is notoriously full of holes and made-up stories.) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1316 "2017-01-16T15:20:24Z")
While I recognize that it’s dangerous to look too deeply into the Scum’s reasons for picking a particular target, because _maybe that’s just what they want you to think!_, I think that Towns in general have swung too far in the other direction: Scum do have reasons for the targets they choose, and those reasons are often simple enough to figure out, and if we can figure them out, it can be helpful. That said, though, in this case I don’t think it does help us. Being the most prolific poster and yet not being particularly suspected by anyone is plenty enough of a reason for the Scum to choose to target someone. On another note, I’ve been thinking about the Scum protector roles, Bodyguard/Beta. Someone correct me if I’m wrong on this, but do those roles seem kind of useless? For simplicity of terminology, I’ll refer to the Bodyguard, without loss of generality: Suppose that the Bodyguard finds some person whose life they consider worth more than their own (I’m guessing the Godfather, but it’ll almost certainly be a Mafia member). So they target that person. And suppose that someone who wants Mafia dead (i.e., anyone who’s not Mafia) then targets that person for a kill. Well, that someone who wanted a dead Mafia still gets a dead Mafia, maybe one that they hadn’t even suspected at all. And knowing that the person they targeted didn’t die, and that the Bodyguard did, they’re going to figure out what happened. And then the next Night, since they want dead Mafiosos, they’re going to target the same person again, who this time won’t be protected, and will die as normal. In other words, the net result of the Bodyguard using his power is that two Mafia members die, instead of just one, including the one that he was trying to protect. Yeah, one of them was delayed by a turn, but that probably doesn’t matter unless we’re so close to endgame that the game would have ended in between… and if the game’s that close to over, the power probably still doesn’t matter. When would this ever be worthwhile for Scum to use? ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1317 "2017-01-16T15:55:14Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > I don’t think so. > > Here is the last vote count we have. I realize a lot happened after that – mainly Toejam made a big run – but we know that wasn’t scum-motivated. > > Lakai (14 votes) - Inner Stickler (257), snfaulkner (295), RedSkeeziz(319), Plumpudding(647), Light Foot (883), Koldanar (900), Guiri (977), Scathach (1031), AngeloftheNorth (1078), Hockey Monkey (1102), Drain Bead (889), Raventhief (1109), Meeko (1082), jsgoddess (1129) > > ToeJam (7 votes) - Sunny Daze (113), Hooker Chemical (184), sinjin (200), Sachertorte (534), Captain Klutz(796), Normal Phase (1011), Prof. Pepperwinkle (1057) > > colby11 (6 votes) - Texcat (91), ToeJam (132), Hawkeye(350), Nanook(455), brewha (683), Pleonast (841), Suburban Plankton (1026) > > And here is a vote count from a few days earlier: > > colby11 (8 votes) - Texcat (91), Guiri (101), Meeko (130), ToeJam (132), Hockey Monkey (152), Lakai (154), Hawkeye(350), Nanook(455) > > septimus (6 votes) - Enderw24 (243), normal phase (322), Colby(335), Captain Klutz(347), Hoopy(480), Pleonast (511) > > ToeJam (4 votes) - Sunny Daze (113), Hooker Chemical (184), sinjin (200), Sachertorte (534) > > Angelofthenorth (4 votes) - Zeriel(413), TotalLost(492), Boozahol Squid PI (546), jsgoddess (503) > > The thing that strikes me here is the lack of overlap between those who were voting for the non\*\*-Colby\*\* candidate at earlier and later stages of the game. If there was some organized effort to save **Colby** , you would expect to see some of the same people pushing the alternative candidate in both cases, but I’m really not seeing that. None of the six people who were voting **septimus** at point A turned up voting Lakai at the end. And given the size of the **Lakai** bandwagon, it has to be MOSTLY town. > > If anything, it’s more plausible to say that the **Toejam** wagon was organized to save Colby; we do see both **Normal Phase** and **Captain Klutz** jumping from \*\*septimus \*\*to **Toejam**. But we know Normal Phase was Town. So maybe **Capt. Klutz** is **Colby’s** scummate? Well, then where were the other five of them when **Colby** was twisting in the wind? > > My first impression is that it seems unlikely **Colby** is scum, unless his team is trying to bus him. Thanks for spelling that out for me. When I made my comment, I hadn’t done the research to see where the Lakai bandwagon came from. And yeah, since we now know NormalPhase wasn’t working with scum intentions, it really muddies the waters. So, I agree that Colby comes out of this mess looking much less scummy since there isn’t a real plausible explanation for the way the votes came out if his scum buddies were protecting him. ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1318 "2017-01-16T15:57:13Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > I got some horrible pop-up telling me that I was infected earlier in the week. :mad: Yeah - same here. Pop up that made my phone vibrate and warned me that I had to install an antivirus app. I’ve had pop ups on the site before - but they open in a new window so I can close them and still read the thread. I really hope they get it sorted before next weekend. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1319 "2017-01-16T15:57:37Z")
> [@raventhief](#): > > Both factions have both the official kill - Mafia day kill, Wold night kill, plus they have the Hitman/Outrider than hits opposite, right? > > So lynch, Mafia Day Kill, and Outrider hit, I think. This seems most likely. We know it’s possible. It’s also possible that third parties had a hand, but there are a lot of unknowns if we head down that path. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577/1320 "2017-01-16T16:09:33Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Because\*\*\* Lakai \*_was Town._ Once he got ahead by 7 votes, why would scum bother to run up an eleventh-hour wagon against him. I agree that the voting suggests that the ToeJam run wasn’t scum driven, but I think you’re overstating the case. There’s a gulf between “we know” and “it suggests.” Also, the threshold for “no scum bandwagon” is greater if scum were voting for Lakai. It seems likely this is the case. It’s also possible that scum saw that the vote on ToeJam was unlikely to upend the results and decided it was a good place to park the vote. (i.e. They thought it was better to vote for a contender than to lodge what could be interpreted as a vote dodging responsibility.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577.md?page=65) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-one/776577.md?page=67)