# Mafia Reunion - Day Two

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425>\
**Category:** Thread Games\
**Created:** [January 17, 2017, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425 "2017-01-17T22:20:08Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 59

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**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1161 "2017-01-23T15:14:43Z")

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> [@Drain\_Bead](#):
>
> Did you do a count for this on D1? I’d be curious if there’s anything we can learn from patterns.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Here’s the one for D1/N1. I agree about looking for patterns.

Who Posted?  
Total Posts: 1,449  
User Name Posts  
LightFoot 91  
Normal Phase 84  
Plumpudding 81  
AngeloftheNorth 70  
Meeko 64  
Suburban Plankton 62  
snfaulkner 60  
Total Lost 59  
NAF1138 56  
Prof. Pepperwinkle 56  
Thing Fish 54  
jsgoddess 44  
raventhief 42  
GuiriEnEspaña 41  
Chronos 40  
septimus 38  
Drain Bead 37  
Biotop 29  
Johnny Bravo 25  
Boozahol Squid, P.I. 24  
bufftabby 24  
HookerChemical 23  
Hoopy Frood 22  
TexCat 22  
Sunny Daze 22  
sachertorte 21  
Mahaloth 20  
Lakai 18  
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies 17  
Captain Klutz 17  
Hockey Monkey 17  
Nanook of the North Shore 16  
Scathach 16  
sinjin 14  
Zeriel 13  
Crys75 12  
brewha 11  
Pleonast 10  
Colby11 9  
Enderw24 8  
BillMC 6  
nesta 6  
MHaye 5  
ToeJam 5  
DiggitCamara 5  
Hawkeyeop 5  
Sario 5  
storyteller0910 4  
Inner Stickler 3  
Khameleon 3  
Hal Briston 3  
Koldanar 3  
Idle Thoughts 3  
paulwhoisaghost 2  
Precambrianmollusc 1  
Red Skeezix 1  
Show Thread & Close Window

Sario has only posted fluff, and didn’t vote either Day. That’s where I’m starting my vote toMorrow.  
ETA: I botched the [SPOILER] tags, and fixed it. That’s all. Really.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Crys75](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3da27b/32.png) [@Crys75](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crys75)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1162 "2017-01-23T15:31:54Z")

</div>

> [@Captain\_Klutz](#):
>
> Thinking more about the cult, I think it is unlikely that they would be hostile.
> 
> Consider: a group of 5 with a shared win condition that can steal the win. That is one heck of a burden for town to overcome. Killing off 14 scum is hard enough, now there are 5 cultists that need to be taken care of as well. Yes, they would also be a threat to scum, but scum would be happy to use the lynch to take them out.
> 
> I’ll stick my neck out: I am going to regard the cult of LUTHA as non hostile, unless there is evidence to the contrary.  
> Also, a suggestion to the cultists: **Crys** has already said that she will use her investigation on **sachertorte** toNight. This will confirm both of them. Since you can only find one member of your cult, I suggest that you keep your investigation in reserve and not look for anyone toNight. You may need it later for cross-confirmation purposes.

Too late I already sent in my order to investigate.

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1163 "2017-01-23T15:36:11Z")

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I think Sario would be a good target for the Vig. It’ll be an uphill slog to get the community as a whole to vote for Sario. If the vig makes a point of picking off non-voters and non-posters, that will goad the other posters into not falling into that group.

That being said, I suspect a lot of the nonposters and nonvoters will be nilla town. When players don’t have a ‘fun’ action, they tend to drift away.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1164 "2017-01-23T15:38:24Z")

</div>

Yeah, I’m not going to catch up, am I? Still haven’t finished Day 1, and Day 2 has even more to read. I’ll do what I can…

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1165 "2017-01-23T15:48:18Z")

</div>

> [@Crys75](#):
>
> Too late I already sent in my order to investigate.
> 
> Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

You can rescind. Night isn’t over.  
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Crys75](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3da27b/32.png) [@Crys75](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crys75)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1166 "2017-01-23T15:56:00Z")

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> [@Inner\_Stickler](#):
>
> I think Sario would be a good target for the Vig. It’ll be an uphill slog to get the community as a whole to vote for Sario. If the vig makes a point of picking off non-voters and non-posters, that will goad the other posters into not falling into that group.
> 
> That being said, I suspect a lot of the nonposters and nonvoters will be nilla town. When players don’t have a ‘fun’ action, they tend to drift away.

I’m not sure that is smart either. I’m not at the PC atm but I will be there soon to consult the role pm s

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1167 "2017-01-23T16:03:07Z")

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Role PMs won’t tell you anything about vig strategy. If you have a town-aligned mandatory vig, they are best eliminating runners up for lynchings and picking off low- and non-participatory players. The former helps prevent the next Day being a retread of the previous day and provides a more complete picture of the voting story. The latter helps keep town and scum alike posting and voting because no one wants to draw the attention of a killer not run by committee.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Crys75](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3da27b/32.png) [@Crys75](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crys75)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1168 "2017-01-23T16:05:38Z")

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> [@Crys75](#):
>
> Too late I already sent in my order to investigate.
> 
> Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

Yeah but this is partially for my own piece of mind. I would feel terrible if I allowed a scum to hide in the ranks of Lutha. But I’m willing to think about it. Tell me why I shouldn’t investigate sachertorte

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1169 "2017-01-23T16:12:38Z")

</div>

> [@ToeJam](#):
>
> What exactly is the case against me? Literally as I said before- I’ve not read day1, and I don’t think it’s fair 2 hours before the lynch to try to get me to read all of day 1 to figure out why you guys feel the need to lynch someone who wasn’t even there for most of the day.

I can’t even. WTF?  
How is it our fault that you failed to show up until the end of the day. I didn’t realize that we must defer to your busy schedule, but our lack of a time machine to vote for you earlier in the day, _while you were missing_, is somehow unfair to you.

> [@ToeJam](#):
>
> -Also, should i be lynched, I think it would be very useful to go back through my posts. I’ve noted being suspicious of \*\*Sachetorte \*\*today, and find it interesting that he’s one of the early ones (like midnight last night early) to start up another bandwagon against me from where I had 1 vote by idle to suddenly having a ton more votes.

It is my belief that the only reason you didn’t have more votes earlier in the day is because you were on deck to be mod-killed. I believe I stated as much.

> [@Hoopy\_Frood](#):
>
> Crys stated there were 5 cultists total.
> 
> **sachertorte** : Does your PM indicate the same?

Yes.

> [@Crys75](#):
>
> This is why I didn’t want other cultists to claim.

Yeah well, I didn’t want you to claim. So we have that in common. But overall, I think your claim is working out better than I expected. I expected you to get lynched hard, but town has shown an open-mindedness that could lead to a benefit for all. I agree that we all shouldn’t claim just yet, but backing up your claim gives it more weight. It is risky, that’s sort of the point. You took a risk in claiming. Town takes a risk in not lynching you. I take a risk in claiming. There’s a lot of giving and trust there. That is good for Town and good for us.

It is possible that the Vig could kill both us. One of us, is perhaps forgivable. Both, less so. If that happens, then I expect the other cultists to clam up and play it safe for as long as they can. But who knows? They will have to make that judgment for themselves.

> [@Crys75](#):
>
> I appreciate Sachertorte’s efforts to save me, however, I truly wish they wouldn’t have claimed tbh.

I didn’t claim to save you. At least that wasn’t the primary reason. Part of my reasoning for claiming was that I felt you _didn’t_ need saving.

> [@paulwhoisaghost](#):
>
> So we had an eleventh hour vote swing to someone based solely on lack of participation? In a claim with a lot of people openly admitting to having trouble participating under the sheer size of the game? This doesn’t add up for me.

ToeJam came in second for the Lynch vote on Day 1. Voting for him on Day 2 is not unexpected. If anything, ToeJam’s lack of participation was preventing people from voting for him earlier in Day 2. That he is getting end of day votes is a combination of the realization that the brewha train is terrible and his taking himself out of mod-kill candidacy.

> [@paulwhoisaghost](#):
>
> I don’t buy Sach’s claim… it provides no new info, Crys wasn’t in the lead when it happened, and it goes from 20% to 40% of their team being out in the open and at danger of being killed without adding any benefit for the cultists. And again, the unvote immediately following this claim is not consistent with my assessment of what a survivor cultist would do.

I can only provide what I can provide. Crys posted the role PM. All I can do is show posts of mine that show knowledge of that PM prior to her reveal.  
There is a balance between being out in the open and in danger of being killed and being hidden and also in danger of being killed. No matter what, there is that danger. Being out means the danger is from someone or collectively making the decision to kill me. It could happen. It could also happen that the killers realize that I’m not a threat to them. I don’t know what they will do, so yes, it is a risk, but by claiming, I might fall off the radar of killers and increase my chances of survival.

Crys didn’t exactly behave the way I would expect a survivor to behave either, but we’re all unique snowflakes.

> [@paulwhoisaghost](#):
>
> Ok… if you survive the Night I would be willing to lump the two of you together, but if my suspicions prove correct, then a scum Sach would be planning on you dying toNight or getting lynched (their vote switch edged you closer to that possibility)… and would therefore not need to worry about your investigation.

Why are you preemptively blaming me for Crys’s death? To me this looks like scum planning to kill Crys and put the blame on me.  
I’m assuming we all have cultist investigation powers. Crys has it, I have it. I assume all the cultists have it. So even if Crys dies, don’t you think it possible for another cultist to check me out?  
You’re also too dismissive of breadcrumbs.

And here’s the really weird part. paulwhoisaghost was the player who was most reasonable about Crys claim. The accuracy of his assessment was a big part of what led me to claim. And now he’s being all weird about it. I don’t understand it. I guess that’s the surprise I was expecting.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1170 "2017-01-23T16:27:00Z")

</div>

> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#):
>
> Here’s the one for D1/N1. I agree about looking for patterns.
> 
> Who Posted?  
> Total Posts: 1,449  
> User Name Posts  
> LightFoot 91  
> Normal Phase 84  
> Plumpudding 81  
> AngeloftheNorth 70  
> Meeko 64  
> Suburban Plankton 62  
> snfaulkner 60  
> Total Lost 59  
> NAF1138 56  
> Prof. Pepperwinkle 56  
> Thing Fish 54  
> jsgoddess 44  
> raventhief 42  
> GuiriEnEspaña 41  
> Chronos 40  
> septimus 38  
> Drain Bead 37  
> Biotop 29  
> Johnny Bravo 25  
> Boozahol Squid, P.I. 24  
> bufftabby 24  
> HookerChemical 23  
> Hoopy Frood 22  
> TexCat 22  
> Sunny Daze 22  
> sachertorte 21  
> Mahaloth 20  
> Lakai 18  
> ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies 17  
> Captain Klutz 17  
> Hockey Monkey 17  
> Nanook of the North Shore 16  
> Scathach 16  
> sinjin 14  
> Zeriel 13  
> Crys75 12  
> brewha 11  
> Pleonast 10  
> Colby11 9  
> Enderw24 8  
> BillMC 6  
> nesta 6  
> MHaye 5  
> ToeJam 5  
> DiggitCamara 5  
> Hawkeyeop 5  
> Sario 5  
> storyteller0910 4  
> Inner Stickler 3  
> Khameleon 3  
> Hal Briston 3  
> Koldanar 3  
> Idle Thoughts 3  
> paulwhoisaghost 2  
> Precambrianmollusc 1  
> Red Skeezix 1  
> Show Thread & Close Window
> 
> **Sario has only posted fluff, and didn’t vote either Day. That’s where I’m starting my vote toMorrow.**  
> ETA: I botched the [SPOILER] tags, and fixed it. That’s all. Really.

My bold. **Idle Thoughts** , I think, is a good place to start. Very low activity. He started this party, didn’t he? I expected more.  
Spoilered to relevant portion

> [@sachertorte](#):
>
> [spoiler]I can’t even. WTF?  
> How is it our fault that you failed to show up until the end of the day. I didn’t realize that we must defer to your busy schedule, but our lack of a time machine to vote for you earlier in the day, _while you were missing_, is somehow unfair to you.  
> It is my belief that the only reason you didn’t have more votes earlier in the day is because you were on deck to be mod-killed. I believe I stated as much.
> 
> Yes.  
> Yeah well, I didn’t want you to claim. So we have that in common. But overall, I think your claim is working out better than I expected. I expected you to get lynched hard, but town has shown an open-mindedness that could lead to a benefit for all. I agree that we all shouldn’t claim just yet, but backing up your claim gives it more weight. It is risky, that’s sort of the point. You took a risk in claiming. Town takes a risk in not lynching you. I take a risk in claiming. There’s a lot of giving and trust there. That is good for Town and good for us.
> 
> It is possible that the Vig could kill both us. One of us, is perhaps forgivable. Both, less so. If that happens, then I expect the other cultists to clam up and play it safe for as long as they can. But who knows? They will have to make that judgment for themselves.
> 
> I didn’t claim to save you. At least that wasn’t the primary reason. Part of my reasoning for claiming was that I felt you _didn’t_ need saving.
> 
> ToeJam came in second for the Lynch vote on Day 1. Voting for him on Day 2 is not unexpected. If anything, ToeJam’s lack of participation was preventing people from voting for him earlier in Day 2. That he is getting end of day votes is a combination of the realization that the brewha train is terrible and his taking himself out of mod-kill candidacy.
> 
> I can only provide what I can provide. Crys posted the role PM. All I can do is show posts of mine that show knowledge of that PM prior to her reveal.  
> There is a balance between being out in the open and in danger of being killed and being hidden and also in danger of being killed. No matter what, there is that danger. Being out means the danger is from someone or collectively making the decision to kill me. It could happen. It could also happen that the killers realize that I’m not a threat to them. I don’t know what they will do, so yes, it is a risk, but by claiming, I might fall off the radar of killers and increase my chances of survival.
> 
> Crys didn’t exactly behave the way I would expect a survivor to behave either, but we’re all unique snowflakes.
> 
> Why are you preemptively blaming me for Crys’s death? To me this looks like scum planning to kill Crys and put the blame on me.  
> I’m assuming we all have cultist investigation powers. Crys has it, I have it. I assume all the cultists have it. So even if Crys dies, don’t you think it possible for another cultist to check me out?  
> You’re also too dismissive of breadcrumbs.[/spoiler]
> 
> And here’s the really weird part. paulwhoisaghost was the player who was most reasonable about Crys claim. The accuracy of his assessment was a big part of what led me to claim. And now he’s being all weird about it. I don’t understand it. I guess that’s the surprise I was expecting.

Actually, I agree with this observation. I did think **paulwhois** was very supportive of **Crys**. He does seem to be back-tracking. I was expecting **Paul** to be the next **Lutha** , TBH.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1171 "2017-01-23T16:37:15Z")

</div>

> [@paulwhoisaghost](#):
>
> So you acted against town by casting a vote that you felt was shitty but did it anyway to blend in… that’s what scum do.

No. I made a mistake, and _I corrected that mistake_. I thought the consensus would be for a double Lynch. Voting for brewha supports that double Lynch without directly voting for Crys.

> [@](#):
>
> You claimed to be playing the game vanilla town, so much so that you didn’t even use your investigation power, and yet not so vanilla that you would put in the work to cast a vote on someone you believe to scum, Toejam, but rather a shitty vote so you can hide?

ToeJam was set for mod-kill at the time of my vote.

> [@](#):
>
> You role claim under no pressure, for no apparent reason other than to relieve suspicion of Crys when the vote count was 16-10. But you didn’t think Crys was in any danger of Lynch.

Nope. I can do math. The situation I thought would happen wasn’t coming to be. I thought players would vote to double Lynch. (That’s part of why I voted for brewha

> [@](#):
>
> You then unvote Brewha, making the vote count 15-10. Bringing your only known teammate a vote closer to being the lynch leader.

If Town wants to Lynch Crys they are going to do so. Voting for brewha isn’t going to stop that. And not voting for brewha is entirely consistent with my assessment that Crys wasn’t going to get lynched, which is what I believed.

> [@](#):
>
> Your actions are not consistent with someone whose win condition is for someone from your team to survive.

ONE person. That one person doesn’t have to be me and it doesn’t have to be Crys.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1172 "2017-01-23T16:41:49Z")

</div>

> [@Captain\_Klutz](#):
>
> Thinking more about the cult, I think it is unlikely that they would be hostile.
> 
> Consider: a group of 5 with a shared win condition that can steal the win. That is one heck of a burden for town to overcome. Killing off 14 scum is hard enough, now there are 5 cultists that need to be taken care of as well. Yes, they would also be a threat to scum, but scum would be happy to use the lynch to take them out.
> 
> I’ll stick my neck out: I am going to regard the cult of LUTHA as non hostile, unless there is evidence to the contrary.  
> Also, a suggestion to the cultists: **Crys** has already said that she will use her investigation on **sachertorte** toNight. This will confirm both of them. Since you can only find one member of your cult, I suggest that you keep your investigation in reserve and not look for anyone toNight. You may need it later for cross-confirmation purposes.

As I understand it, the investigation is only a one shot power if they find a cultist… there is no reason not to investigate to try to find other cultists if you trust everything they have claimed thus far.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1173 "2017-01-23T16:52:33Z")

</div>

Just a point of order - I feel like discussing strategy while scum is discussing their nightkills may not be optimal.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Crys75](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3da27b/32.png) [@Crys75](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crys75)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1174 "2017-01-23T16:54:21Z")

</div>

> [@paulwhoisaghost](#):
>
> As I understand it, the investigation is only a one shot power if they find a cultist… there is no reason not to investigate to try to find other cultists if you trust everything they have claimed thus far.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

Even though I trust what sachertorte has said there is still always that niggling thought in the back of my brain, and because I believe them that all of you do. I’m super bad at picking up breadcrumbs now that sachertorte pointed out Theirs they seem obvious and I can’t believe I missed them.

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1175 "2017-01-23T16:54:42Z")

</div>

> [@sachertorte](#):
>
> Why are you preemptively blaming me for Crys’s death? To me this looks like scum planning to kill Crys and put the blame on me.  
> I’m assuming we all have cultist investigation powers. Crys has it, I have it. I assume all the cultists have it. So even if Crys dies, don’t you think it possible for another cultist to check me out?  
> You’re also too dismissive of breadcrumbs.
> 
> And here’s the really weird part. paulwhoisaghost was the player who was most reasonable about Crys claim. The accuracy of his assessment was a big part of what led me to claim. And now he’s being all weird about it. I don’t understand it. I guess that’s the surprise I was expecting.

I’m not preemptively blaming you for Crys’s death, I’m explaining why I’m more suspicious of you than of Crys. I don’t know you are telling the truth. If I consider you could be lying, one reason could be that you are scum. If you follow the logic that you are scum and are false claiming to group yourself with the cultists, then it would make sense that your scum team would kill Crys to stop Crys from investigating and outing you. True, other cultists could investigate and out you, but they risk wasting their investigation if you are telling the truth. Even if they do investigate you, they would have to out themselves to tell us that you are lying. If you are lying, this is a possibility.

This is how I play the game. I look at what people say and figure out what all possible scenarios are and then try to rule them out based on available evidence. Right now the only evidence supporting your claim are your breadcrumbs. That’s pretty good evidence, but it doesn’t entirely rule out you being lying scum, it just makes it unlikely.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Crys75](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3da27b/32.png) [@Crys75](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crys75)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1176 "2017-01-23T16:55:27Z")

</div>

Neta and if scum were given our pms as cover it would be easy to plant their breadcrumbs

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1177 "2017-01-23T16:59:41Z")

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> [@Crys75](#):
>
> Neta and if scum were given our pms as cover it would be easy to plant their breadcrumbs
> 
> Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

This is one possible reason that I am not going to blindly trust Sach’s claim… I am not ready to make a final decision on what to do about cultists, so I’m asking questions. I don’t think it’s best for town to use our lynch on any of you yet, but that doesn’t mean I can’t sniff this out until I am satisfied.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Hoopy\_Frood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hoopy_frood/32/8452_2.png) [@Hoopy\_Frood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hoopy_Frood)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1178 "2017-01-23T17:02:18Z")

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> [@Crys75](#):
>
> Yeah but this is partially for my own piece of mind. I would feel terrible if I allowed a scum to hide in the ranks of Lutha. But I’m willing to think about it. Tell me why I shouldn’t investigate sachertorte

What you do doesn’t really matter to town. You are third party. You claim you can win with anyone. Your power doesn’t help _us_ all that much, however.

But it seems reasonable to this townie that you and sachertorte are truthfully claiming that you are part of the same cult because it would be a huge gamble for a scummy sachertorte to have done this. There’s a lot of risk for not much gain at this point. Especially because you claim you haven’t had your power used up yet. And sachertorte was under no pressure. Which means all you would have to do is investigate him and out him as lying scum, buying your cult increased chances of town being willing to work with you and scum being down one number.

So barring some weird mechanic, there is no reason for sachertorte to be lying. So there’s not much reason for you to spend your power on him. If you can confirm more cultists, and the cultists decide to ally with town as an alternate mason-like group, scum have less space to hide. The risk to town in this alliance is that you can stab us in the back and work with scum. The risk to you is if you are all exposed, scum can just take you all out since by killing you they don’t reduce the pool they can hide in any further.

This, of course, is assuming you are being completely honest about the win condition and powers.

But for your own sake, you are probably better trying to find other cultists. For town’s sake, if you ally with us, knowing who a few of the other cultists are is good for us so we don’t lynch or vig them instead of scum, because in the numbers game, you cultists count as townies.

So investigating sachertorte is, while not a waste of your power, probably not the most ideal play for any interested parties.

But it’s not really a bad play, either. Use your best judgement.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1179 "2017-01-23T17:04:59Z")

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> [@sachertorte](#):
>
> No. I made a mistake, and _I corrected that mistake_. I thought the consensus would be for a double Lynch. Voting for brewha supports that double Lynch without directly voting for Crys.  
> ToeJam was set for mod-kill at the time of my vote.  
> Nope. I can do math. The situation I thought would happen wasn’t coming to be. I thought players would vote to double Lynch. (That’s part of why I voted for brewha  
> If Town wants to Lynch Crys they are going to do so. Voting for brewha isn’t going to stop that. And not voting for brewha is entirely consistent with my assessment that Crys wasn’t going to get lynched, which is what I believed.  
> ONE person. That one person doesn’t have to be me and it doesn’t have to be Crys.

Thank you. I understand your perspective now… I don’t agree with how you chose to act, but I understand it a little better.

The biggest hang ups i have are the benefit that scum could gain from doing exactly what you did and the fact that it is only N2 and 2/5 of your survival team are outed. In a game this size you have a long road ahead of you and there is a good chance other cultists could get hit in some crossfire… if you are telling the truth, that’s awful risky to have almost half the team outed so early.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\
**Post date:** [January 23, 2017, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-day-two/777425/1180 "2017-01-23T17:08:17Z")

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> [@Sunny\_Daze](#):
>
> Actually, I agree with this observation. I did think **paulwhois** was very supportive of **Crys**. He does seem to be back-tracking. I was expecting **Paul** to be the next **Lutha** , TBH.

I still am supportive of not lynching Crys… I am more wary of Sach, but don’t think we should Lynch either of them. We need to start killing scum. It bugs the crap out of me that we have so many posts for people to analyze and they are still content with lynching 3P and non-participants, neither of which is scum hunting IMHO.

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