# Mafia Reunion - NIGHT ZERO **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [January 4, 2017, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-night-zero/776315 "2017-01-04T16:43:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 199
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2017, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-night-zero/776315/199 "2017-01-05T19:52:32Z")
Okay. Let’s get started: > [@storyteller0910](#): > > The Boss took a slow, calming breath. “Call everybody… and I mean everybody. Get them down here. Tell them to bring crosses and garlic and shit.” > > “I think that’s vampires, Boss…” I have a strong feeling that there is a Vampire in the game. No reason for there NOT to have a Vampire and I think we’re all expecting a 3rd Party serial killer for a game so large. Nothing too shocking (or useful) here. > [@storyteller0910](#): > > \*\*Multi-Lynch Rules (READ THIS PART CAREFULLY!!!): > \*\*[ol] > [li]It is possible for there to be as many as three (3) lynches in any given Day except for Day One (there can only be a single lynch on Day One). [/li][li]The available number of lynches is equal to the number of Town players who died during the preceding Night, not to exceed 3. So if two Town players are killed on Night One, then two lynches are available on Day Two. However, the number of available lynches can never exceed three under any circumstances.[/li][li]In all cases, the leading vote getter will be lynched as always. If at least 2 lynches are available on a given Day, the second-leading vote getter will also be lynched if (s)he has received more than 34% of the available votes. If at least 3 lynches are available on a given Day, the third-leading vote getter will be lynched if: (1) the second-leading vote getter is lynched; AND (2) the third-leading vote getting receives more than 10% of the available votes. [/li][li]PLEASE NOTE: If “No Lynch” is the leading vote-getter for any given Day, then no player will be lynched, even if more than 1 lynch is available and one or more players exceeds the threshold shown above.[/li][/ol] I don’t want to get too into the multi-lynch game mechanic. It isn’t coming into play on Day One anyway. Two quick thoughts though: (1) More Town-directed kills is better for Town (2) 10% is a very small number of players (i.e., easily controlled by scum) My overall impression is that 2 lynches is OK. 3 lynches is bad. > [@](#): > > Town Wins! if all 14 Scum players are dead. The Role PMs confirm that nWolves + nMafia = 14. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > **vote Bobby Bonilla** > > That shit just ain’t right. He retired 15 years ago…I don’t know who he got to negotiate that deal for him, but I’m pretty sure he hangs out down at the crossroads… Wait, what? Are you telling me that a baseball player is still getting paid despite not playing for 15 years? That’s kind of awesome. What happened to the guy who gave the OK on that one? Followed by a whole bunch of nothing (and you bet I skimmed the crap out of those). Ah, No Lynch discussion. Not important. A No Lynch is unlikely to happen and if it does, it will be because of some unusual circumstance that we wouldn’t be able to predict now anyway. > [@ToeJam](#): > > So we have 55 players. 14 Scum. Two Factions. And 3rd Parties at play. > Assuming the Scum are equivalent, we likely have two factions of 7 each\* (Yes, I realize that this may not be the case, especially if we have varying powers or abilities, and the numbers could be skewed, but lets pick an ‘easy’ set up). > Worst case scenario for us (Town) is if 7 scums on one team need to be greater than or equal to the total population. So 7 scum of one team in a pool of 14 total players would be death. Amusingly assuming we played the worst game, and lynched only townies and no scum died- scum team A could win in a pool of 14 if 7 were scum A, and 6 were scum B, and 1 townie was left. > Still, Town needs to get real antsy when we start getting down to the final 20 players, because mislynches will become a scarier possibility of blowing the game, especially when we’re at 15 players if no scum of one group has been dealt with (this does NOT factor in that each night could lead to multiple kills, so really the game could be really close to over though as soon as we’re around that 14 player mark and a mislynch could blow it for the entire town). > > In addition: > 55-14= 41 Non-Scum > > Now, I’m always a fan of flavor. The Mods have stated that flavor isn’t a big deal. But much like our Mafioso scum up there have surmised- the Mayor died by evisceration, bullets, and Fire. The fire IS interesting… Arsonist roles certainly can be present as a “third-party” > > In addition, the number 37 is interesting. 37 is not 41. And 4 “Third party Roles”… seems about fair for a game this size. We could be looking at 14 Scum, 37 Townies, and 4 3rd Party Roles. > > For lack of better clues at this time, that’s just my thoughts so far… > -R This is pretty good, but the chances of a terrible run in lynching scum is actually not that high. The number of scum is unusually high in this game, however they are split into two factions, so we get a higher probability of lynching scum while still being further from a scum win. That would be in Town’s favor. The down side is there are a LOT of scum powers. While I focused on the opening color’s chatter about Vampires, I did not notice the reference to fire. I believe you are correct in that one of the 3rd parties is fire-related. However, like the Vampire, it doesn’t really matter. In fact, the names of the roles are all just another form of color anyway. 37 Townies sounds plausible. With 14 scum (with powers, mostly) running about, another 4 anti-town elements (or even neutral) is pushing the boundaries of what Town needs to do to win. It is my personal opinion that Third Parties add to the Lynch burden of the town. Since we can’t know whether a third party player has an exclusive or inclusive win condition, we have to Lynch third parties. (Sidenote: I’ve always wanted to keep third parties around and make scum deal with them, but that never works out. Once a Third Party is found, it is near impossible to get the Lynch to go to anyone else). I think once we were able to leave the Survivor role alone, but I don’t remember how she (I think it was dotchan) was able to convince us that she was no threat to any side. > [@Sario](#): > > Some multi-lynch math: > > Assuming 37 Town and that only town get lynched and NKed, with 3 kills per Night (Mafia, Wolves, Vig) > > Day One is single lynch, but after that we could be losing 6+ Townies per Day/Night. > That means by Day 5 we could be down to 14 town which would by LYLO If we Lynch 1 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 10 times and not hit ANY scum, then we deserve to lose. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Scum would \*totally \*do that I disagree. There exist actions and decisions that are so detrimental to scum that they avoid them at all costs. That’s how we find Town and narrow our search to scum. It’s an important part of the deduction game. If you toss out all data and throw your hands up and say, well, scum might have done that too, then we might as well just randomize our way through the game. > [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > I’m considering Lynch the Lurker as a strategy for such a large group. Considering? I thought that was your default position. > [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > Is “Some third party players may have exclusive win conditions” compatible with “YOU WIN if at any checkpoint (Dawn or Dusk) all 14 Scum players (Wolves + Mafia) are dead.”? Or can we intepret that win stealers can’t win if there’s no scum left? I don’t know if win stealers can’t win if all scum are dead, but my interpretation is that Town wins if all scum are dead. In other words, Town Wins, Win Stealer might or might not win (win together remains a possibility). > [@](#): > > About the Patsy, there’s a strategy about claiming off the bat, I think the revenge kill might even make a stronger case, add “faulty” cop results. I hate Millers. I thought we determined a long time ago that millers (Town roles that investigate as scum) are a terrible and un-fun role to play. I agree that a Miller claim right away is pro-town since it protects the investigators from wasting an investigation. It’s a sucky role to have to play though, so I’m not going to press it. > [@](#): > > Seer and cop can’t distinguish mafia from wolves, or can? “Scum (Wolf or Mafia)" My interpretation of the roles says no. Probably doesn’t matter though. Would be a real stinker if the game came down to a point where town not only had to Lynch scum but had to Lynch the “right” kind of scum. > [@](#): > > What’s the link between Leprechauns and cereals? Americanism. Lucky Charms is a cereal with a Leprechaun mascot. Don’t look it up, you will be offended. Or do look it up, you will be amused. > [@](#): > > Batman is a compulsory vig? What’s the strategy there? Didn’t that role go badly wrong for someone - SisterC? Only with redirection though. I had the same thought when I read that, but it looks like there isn’t a problem with redirection in the scum powers. The strategy is for the Vig to kill scum! Also, Vig turns into a default second Lynch often. > [@Biotop](#): > > The rules say all Days start on Tuesday. So it looks like we have got some time. Wait, what? We haven’t started? > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > From a Town perspective, is there any real difference between Mafia and Werewolves? Would an optimal strategy (not that there’s a snowball’s chance of such a thing actually being implemented, but it’s good for discussion) favor targeting one faction over the other…or are they both just “Scum”? No. If anything, we would want to reduce the Wolves and Mafia at an equal rate. The Mafia and Wolf Win Conditions are similar and depend on their living numbers. We want that number to be as small as possible. 0 Wolves and 7 Mafia does us no good. Mafia still wins with 14 or less players. But 3 Wolves 4 Mafia, scum don’t win until Pop dips to 8. That’s a big difference. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-reunion-night-zero/776315)._