# MAFIA: The Game - Ideal for Beginners \[Game in Progress\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [July 14, 2015, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099 "2015-07-14T00:45:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 52
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1021 "2015-08-06T05:00:40Z")
> [@JSexton](#): > > That’s enough of that. I’d rather go out gracefully.vote jsexton :Tips hat:: See you over in the Forbidden Thread. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1022 "2015-08-06T05:42:40Z")
[Had to set this post aside mid-composition and finish it later, so apologies if these points are already made by others] > [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > **DiggitCamara** , **Sario** and **Dante** then all voted for Townie **septimus** , setting Town into a bit of a tailspin that we still haven’t really gotten out of. **Dante** was Town and thus wasn’t saving anyone. If **TexCat** is Town, scummy **Diggit** and/or **Sario** could still have very well have been moving to save **JSexton** , but why use **septimus** to do it? Why not **TexCat**? Is there a coherent narrative to explain that? Exactly the issue I was [wrestling with](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18569613&postcount=900). There were much less showy ways to take the heat off of either **JSexton** or **TexCat** , and I don’t think anyone could have predicted the **septimus** lynch gaining the kind of traction it did. > [@](#): > > If **TexCat** is Town, and **Diggit** and **Sario** were _not_ scum moving with purpose to save **JSexton** , on the other hand, then where could the wolves have plausibly been at this point? Presumably not as the other votes on **JSexton**. If we’re entertaining the idea that scum colluded to spare **JSexton** by piling on **septimus** , it’s not much more of a stretch to imagine scum making a then-safe vote for **Sexton** knowing they could switch to **TexCat** if shit got too real. **Cygnus** ’ reasons were [vague,](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18545054&postcount=459) but at least he had them. **Pepperwinkle** basically [rubber-stamped](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18547157&postcount=479) **Bayard’s** vote. > [@](#): > > What I’m saying is, if they were scattered among those groups as opposed to actively participating in moving the vote, they would be occupying almost all of those spots while the rest of the implausible end of day scenario unfolded entirely between Townies in a way that was very very convenient for them to sip bloody everyones in the shade. This is the part that I have a hard time embracing — maybe just because I want to at least be able to pull some valid evidence out of that disaster. If we killed our Guardian because we all collectively lost our heads, that’s a) depressing, and b) ultimately not very revealing. > [@](#): > > Last scenario - if **TexCat** is the Alpha, on the other other hand, then it’s comparatively easy to read. Two Wolves are on the chopping block, **TexCat** fights valiantly to stay alive, and her buddies rally just in time, with help from dummies like me, to get **septimus** up there instead. If Bayard managed to pinch a Wolf AND the Alpha on his only two tries, that’s pretty incredible. But it’s the only explanation for the **septimus** play that makes sense to me, apart from the town-on-town bloodbath described above. > [@](#): > > Check my thinking here, since I’m out of time for right now, but as I read it, it does seem to me that Occam’s razor would suggest that the easier scenarios to make sense of are the ones we should be leaning towards. By that reading, seems like our frontrunners should be **TexCat** , **Sario** , **DiggitCamara** , wild card. No? Good enough place to start. We’ve got a lot of time until Monday. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1023 "2015-08-06T10:54:12Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > \*\* > [Snip]I might have kept my results a secret until Friday or Saturday, and in the meantime, tried to engage JSexton to see if he might give up some clues to his teammates. Although I think he’s too good a player for that to have worked. Nevertheless, if you had attacked and voted him on the basis that Mahaloth thought he was scum, his wolfmates might have been tempted to stick up for him. I agree with this. There could have been a possibility of sussing out a little bit more information out of this, but good work **Bayard**! Are we finally gonna see red? > [@Precambrianmollusc](#): > > At the risk of being paranoid is it possible bayard is pulling an elaborate balls out scum fake claim? We could wait for tomorrow to lynch jsexton when bayard turns up dead . If bayard doesn’t turn up dead , it could be scum fucking with us, but that does give bayard another night investigation , so they would be the ballsiest scum ever if they tried that. > The downside , it leaves jsexton alive to plot with his scum buddies tonight , and given he is an experienced player that may not be a great idea. > Anyway something to ponder , or not. Might keep conversation going today , an early reveal of the result does allow scum to keep quite all day. If this is a scumtastic full scrotes out plan , not sure what the real seers plan should be, keep quite and counter tomorrow I would think? Evil twin scum **Bayard** have no motivation for claiming this early. There is no pressure on him and there’s a whole day of discussion where a counter may turn up. I’ve been wary of \*\*Precambrianmollusc \*\*the whole game, and I continue to be. But I’m gonna go ahead and change my vote. [COLOR=“Blue”]Vote JSexton Some thoughts on **TexCat** : I’m still unsure about her. She might be the alpha, which would explain her tight-lippedness early Day One and the \*\*Septimus \*\*wagon. Remember, \*\*Septimus \*\*became a target after his self-vote ploy and he didn’t do the greatest job of explaining himself. **TexCat** rolled underneath the self-voting business, then hurriedly voted **Septimus** and pointed at **Johnny Bravo** and “Septimus’s first reaction to the scheme was to work out how scum could overcome it” as reasons for the vote. But I need to go back and read, read, read. I’ll try to be as active as possible toDay, hopefully I’ll have time. Arrivederci. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1024 "2015-08-06T12:38:20Z")
> [@JSexton](#): > > That’s enough of that. I’d rather go out gracefully.vote jsexton On further thinking, I guess this more or less cements **Bayard** ’s claim. I think such a sure claim would be harder further into the day. Claiming a bit later could have opened up possibilities for saving **Bayard** from being NK’d, though, but that would have been a difficult gambit to pull off. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1025 "2015-08-06T13:39:34Z")
> [@Plumpudding](#): > > Claiming a bit later could have opened up possibilities for saving **Bayard** from being NK’d, though How do you figure? ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1026 "2015-08-06T15:53:08Z")
ToMorrow perhaps we should implement Biotop’s plan from Day One, if the tiebreaker mechanism still works to Town’s advantage. Thing Fish suggested (124) that we use the mechanism once the roles have been mostly revealed, which is now. I also note that 'Mollusc was immediately adverse to it (99), as was JSexton. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1027 "2015-08-06T15:56:49Z")
[QUOTE=Prof. Pepperwinkle] ToMorrow perhaps we should implement Biotop’s plan from Day One, if the tiebreaker mechanism still works to Town’s advantage. Thing Fish suggested (124) that we use the mechanism once the roles have been mostly revealed, which is now. I also note that 'Mollusc was immediately adverse to it (99), as was JSexton. [/QUOTE] Well, remember this: > [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > So, let’s say there’s a tie. The First Mason’s vote breaks the tie UNLESS he PM’s storyteller and says not to, in which case the Alpha Wolf’s vote breaks the tie. The First Mason would then know within a certain range of voters that one of them is the Alpha Wolf. Is this correct? > [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > No. The tie would be resolved randomly. > [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > Oh, right. Thanks, I missed that. So, there’s no way to tell whether or not the First Mason broke the tie or not, which keeps him safer. Good. ? ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1028 "2015-08-06T16:01:37Z")
Okay, I see. To me that looks as if it would not make sense for Town to use the tie-breaking mechanism as it stands, but I’m not sure if I missed something, OR if the plan could be altered so that it works for us again. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1029 "2015-08-06T16:20:38Z")
I thought we were past this. The tie-breaking mechanism is no longer transparent. There’s no way to interpret a tie with certainty anymore. In fact, given that there’s a chance a tie would be resolved randomly, it seems sensible to avoid them. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1030 "2015-08-06T16:55:31Z")
**Go town!** ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1031 "2015-08-06T17:24:44Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > On it, actually. Returning to my pet project from before – > > Given the assumption that **Bayard** isn’t just making this up: > > - at least 2 Town were voting for **JSexton** , plus **Cygnus** and **Prof. P** > - at least 2 Town were voting for **TexCat** , plus **Plumpudding** and **sangfroid** > - **JSexton** had a one-off vote on **Chronos** , who was Town > - me and **Biotop** had votes on a Townie **Dante G** > - **Thing Fish** and **pcm** had one-off votes on undetermineds > > **DiggitCamara** , **Sario** and **Dante** then all voted for Townie **septimus** , setting Town into a bit of a tailspin that we still haven’t really gotten out of. **Dante** was Town and thus wasn’t saving anyone. If **TexCat** is Town, scummy **Diggit** and/or **Sario** could still have very well have been moving to save **JSexton** , but why use **septimus** to do it? Why not **TexCat**? Is there a coherent narrative to explain that? > > If **TexCat** is Town, and **Diggit** and **Sario** were _not_ scum moving with purpose to save **JSexton** , on the other hand, then where could the wolves have plausibly been at this point? Presumably not as the other votes on **JSexton**. They could have been on **TexCat** – two “openings” there. They could have been on **Dante G** – two spots there, although one of them was me, and I ain’t a wolf. They could have been on **septimus** already, except that’s only one additional person - **Johnny Bravo**. Or they could have been the other one-offers or not voting at all - not sure how many abstainers there were at this moment. What I’m saying is, if they were scattered among those groups as opposed to actively participating in moving the vote, they would be occupying almost all of those spots while the rest of the implausible end of day scenario unfolded entirely between Townies in a way that was very very convenient for them to sip bloody everyones in the shade. > > Last scenario - if **TexCat** is the Alpha, on the other other hand, then it’s comparatively easy to read. Two Wolves are on the chopping block, **TexCat** fights valiantly to stay alive, and her buddies rally just in time, with help from dummies like me, to get **septimus** up there instead. So you’ve got your **JSexton** scum, your **TexCat** scum, probably either **Diggit** or **Sario** or both as rescue scum, and then just one or two scum hidden in those other groups from above. > > Check my thinking here, since I’m out of time for right now, but as I read it, it does seem to me that Occam’s razor would suggest that the easier scenarios to make sense of are the ones we should be leaning towards. By that reading, seems like our frontrunners should be **TexCat** , **Sario** , **DiggitCamara** , wild card. No? I think this is bad and potentially scummy thinking. I am somewhat torn between the fact that it is just very unlikely statistically that Bayard could have happened to investigate the Alpha Wolf and the fact that, as you say, assuming that makes a “coherent narrative” out of an otherwise bizarre series of events. I think that in general, humans tend to err on the side of making coherent narratives out of what may actually just be shit happening. But either way, there is no way in hell we should lynch **TexCat** toMorrow. We can only afford two more mislynches before we lose. If we blow one of them, I will reconsider the possibility of voting for\*\* TexCat.\*\*. But before we are at lynch or lose, we shouldn’t lynch her because if we don’t, we have at least a chance of lynching the Alpha Wolf and confirming her. This seems like it could be an effort to lead town down a bad road. Also, in the voting analysis, he seems to think that it is unlikely that the scum weren’t actively intervening in the **TexCat/Septimus** vote because, if so, “almost all” the\* four\* scum other than\*\* JSexton\*\* would have been in the “relatively small number of spots” represented by the _nine_ living players of unknown alignment who weren’t voting for\*\* JSexton\*\* when he was tied for the lead on Day One. That doesn’t seem to add up. He would say that it is seven, rather than nine, because he is assuming for the sake of argument that **Sario** and **Diggit** are town, since scum wading into the fray at that point would have likely voted for TexCat if she is town. I don’t think we can assume that, but even four out of seven isn’t “almost all”. It certainly doesn’t seem implausible to me that four of the scum could be in that group, or that scum **Cygnus and/or Pepperwinkle** might have parked early votes on their colleague. For such a careful-seeming analysis, it’s odd that he didn’t bother to do the basic arithmetic required to figure out how many people weren’t voting at that point (four, including **Dante** and three unknowns). Maybe because this would undercut his point and not support the idea of a premature **TexCat** lynch? ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1032 "2015-08-06T17:38:12Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > Probably simpler than that. Assume for the moment that **DiggitCamara** and **Sario** are scum. When they voted for **septimus** to get a three-way tie, there was still time to go and they would have no way of predicting that the tie would last. It could have just been a stop-gap vote. And at that point, **JSexton** still had his vote on **Chronos**. **DiggitCamara** and **Sario** (if they are wolves) could have just been waiting for **JSexton** to help himself. And in a couple of previous posts ([106](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18528466&postcount=106), [340](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18537878&postcount=340)), **JSexton** outlined how the wolves could use ninja lynches to avoid ties. > > So, one wolf is in trouble, two more jump into the fray, taking some of the heat off the first, and waiting for him to cast his vote to tip the scales if necessary. In the meantime, more votes pile in on **septimus** , so **JSexton’s** vote is no longer required to save his own skin. > > It’s a nice story. No idea if it’s true, though. It could be. It makes sense. I have another possible scenario which assumes \*\*TexCat \*\*is town. I’m not saying I think it’s what happened, but it seems to make at least as much sense to me. Maybe **Diggit and Sario** are both Town, or maybe just one of them is scum, probably **Sario.** **Diggit** cast the third vote on **septimus** , and **Sario** (if scum) decided to confuse the situation by creating a three-way tie rather than piling on **TexCat** ; plenty of time to switch later if necessary. Then **Dante** moved septimus into the lead, and suddenly scum had a golden opportunity. Now we should be looking at \*\*Chitwood \*\*and **Pepperwinkle** , who at this point jumped on **TexCat** to move **JSexton** into third and pretty much end any threat to him. It seems unlikely that **Pepperwinkle** is scum, since he put the fourth vote on **JSexton,** , but certainly not impossible. Both these players were also involved in last-minute fireworks that made the whole vote look very suspicious and have kept us talking about **TexCat** ever since; if **TexCat** is town, there is clearly a scum motivation for that. ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1033 "2015-08-06T17:39:26Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > ToMorrow perhaps we should implement Biotop’s plan from Day One, if the tiebreaker mechanism still works to Town’s advantage. Thing Fish suggested (124) that we use the mechanism once the roles have been mostly revealed, which is now. I also note that 'Mollusc was immediately adverse to it (99), as was JSexton. A point of view that one confirmed town came around to ( Septimus) , although he seams to have gotten lynched for it ( remember the whole ‘septimus is helping scum by pointing out flaws in the plan’ reasoning behind his lynch) Because J sexton was against the plan is neither here nor there, he may well have seen the problems for town and was being a helpful townie, or indeed saw initial problems for scum with it, I suppose we could ask him, but asking an admitted scum is unlikely to help anyone. It is interesting though that he said That’s enough of that. I’d rather go out gracefully.vote jsexton That’s enough of what? Sounds like a coded message to his fellow scum to shut up for the rest of the day. Day one often has a lot of discussion about game mechanics, the tie breaker was a good start, Chronos had an idea of how it could have worked , I countered with some risks, my logic may be flawed, but better to discuss than sit silent, and there was a long conversation involving quite a few different players on the pros and cons and dreaming up various scenarios. All good stuff, some well thought through , some not so much. What that did produce is some people attacking each other, and a common scum technique is to label ideas as bad ideas, and then transfer that label to scum ideas. Which is pretty much what DiggitCamera is doing. Diggit Camera is also a voter who piled onto Septimus to possibly drag heat off of JSexton. Looking back at the voting, we see Bayard and Prof pepperwinkle voted to bring Jsexton to 4 – it would seem unlikely that they did that to put a fellow wolf tied for a lynch. We know Mahaloth is town, doesn’t tell us much about Cygnus. Why would scum pile onto septimus rather than Texcat who was in the lead – could be Texcat is the alpha, although why tie septimus, that still leaves their alpha at risk, would it be better to pile onto JSexton and get some potential bussing credit and save the Alpha? It also could be that both are town and scum knew that a direct pile onto Texcat would be obvious , and even more obvious if JSexton were ever outed down the line. Piling on Septimus to get to a tie of two people they know to be town ( if TC is town) gets the heat off JSexton and leaves a confusing mess for us to sort out, and it is possible scum wanted a tie anyway ( I don’t think Story had clarified the tiebreak rule at that point). Anyway , I’ll be voting for Diggit tomorrow Vote JSexton Although given his certain lynch, I am half tempted to vote for Diggit now, it won’t change the outcome of today , but happy to put my vote where my mouth is. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1034 "2015-08-06T17:40:08Z")
“Careful-seeming” is a weird accusation. Can you maybe be more precise about what it is you think I’m doing and should not be doing? Is the charge here that I’m trying to drum up support to lynch **TexCat** tomorrow (I’m not), or is it something else? If it’s something else, what is it, exactly; that I didn’t do the math? I am guilty of not doing the math. I didn’t know, while typing that paragraph, how many players there were at the time. That’s why I said “I don’t know how many.” ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1035 "2015-08-06T18:11:01Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > ToMorrow perhaps we should implement Biotop’s plan from Day One, if the tiebreaker mechanism still works to Town’s advantage. Thing Fish suggested (124) that we use the mechanism once the roles have been mostly revealed, which is now. I also note that 'Mollusc was immediately adverse to it (99), as was JSexton. In the first place, that isn’t at all what I said, which isn’t surprising since Biotop didn’t propose his plan until post 325, which to refresh everyone’s memory said: > [@](#): > > The First Mason reveals himself and tells everyone how to vote on the first round, creating a 9-way tie. The first mason can assure the town that no other mason is among those voted against. > > We immediately narrow the Alpha wolf to two. > > The guardian protects the first mason on the first night. > > During the next day we vote to lynch one of the two AND the First Mason names a successor (another mason) if he should die. > > Anyone not voting as instructed can be assumed to be wolf. And on day one, maybe. But now, no. We are currently at 10-5 town. ToDay we lynch **JSexton** and they kill **Bayard** : 9-4 ToMorrow we try this plan. **Rover** switches his vote at the last minute and kills a townie. After Nightkill, 7-4. The next Day we lynch **Rover** and they kill someone. 6-3. The next Day we try the plan again and\*\*\*\* Fido\*\*\*\* jumps offside. 4-3. The next Day we lynch **Fido** , rinse and repeat. 3-2. And now we can’t risk it again, because one more mislynch screws us. Essentially this lets them trade three of us for one of them indefinitely, and we can’t afford that. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1036 "2015-08-06T18:29:37Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > “Careful-seeming” is a weird accusation. Can you maybe be more precise about what it is you think I’m doing and should not be doing? > > Is the charge here that I’m trying to drum up support to lynch **TexCat** tomorrow (I’m not), or is it something else? If it’s something else, what is it, exactly; that I didn’t do the math? I am guilty of not doing the math. I didn’t know, while typing that paragraph, how many players there were at the time. That’s why I said “I don’t know how many.” It _seemed_ to me that you put some time and _careful_ effort into that analysis, so it struck me as weird that you didn’t bother to do that trivially simple step to round it out. And you said that > [@](#): > > our frontrunners should be TexCat, Sario, DiggitCamara, wild card. No? Doesn’t that suggest that you would currently regard\*\* TexCat\*\* as the top candidate for tomorrow, which as I explained is a bad idea? Of course, if you’re Town you are open to new information, and would be prepared to either renounce that idea or explain where my reasoning is mistaken. But if, hypothetically, you were trying to support this idea precisely because it was bad for Town, that would also explain the curious omission in the vote analysis. Not accusing you at this point, just making observations. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1037 "2015-08-06T18:40:43Z")
You may have also made the observation that there was a first half to that paragraph, where I literally exactly asked everyone else to check my thinking and give me some new information, since I was out of time to write Mafia posts. Which makes your observation-in-the-form-of-a-questions about “curious omissions” that I fucking explicitly pointed out a little grating, since we’re just making observations. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1038 "2015-08-06T18:41:02Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > It could be. It makes sense. I have another possible scenario which assumes \*\*TexCat \*\*is town. I’m not saying I think it’s what happened, but it seems to make at least as much sense to me. > > Maybe **Diggit and Sario** are both Town, or maybe just one of them is scum, probably **Sario.** **Diggit** cast the third vote on **septimus** , and **Sario** (if scum) decided to confuse the situation by creating a three-way tie rather than piling on **TexCat** ; plenty of time to switch later if necessary. Then **Dante** moved septimus into the lead, and suddenly scum had a golden opportunity. > > Now we should be looking at \*\*Chitwood \*\*and **Pepperwinkle** , who at this point jumped on **TexCat** to move **JSexton** into third and pretty much end any threat to him. It seems unlikely that **Pepperwinkle** is scum, since he put the fourth vote on **JSexton,** , but certainly not impossible. Both these players were also involved in last-minute fireworks that made the whole vote look very suspicious and have kept us talking about **TexCat** ever since; if **TexCat** is town, there is clearly a scum motivation for that. This scenario also fits with the fact that **JSexton** praised my analysis of Day One, which (if this scenario is right, falsely) concluded that scum were probably overrepresented among the **s** eptimus\*\*\*\* voters. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1039 "2015-08-06T18:46:11Z")
Sorry to grate, **Jimmy** , but the fact that you pointed out that you might be wrong doesn’t mean that your post shouldn’t be examined critically. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2015, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1040 "2015-08-06T18:47:07Z")
It’s a fact that does rather bear on the accusation that I was trying to sneak it by the rest of the town, however. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099.md?page=51) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099.md?page=53)