# MAFIA: The Game - Ideal for Beginners \[Game in Progress\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [July 14, 2015, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099 "2015-07-14T00:45:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 69
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1361 "2015-08-22T13:02:11Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > But why would **Sario** choose **Sangfroid** to create the tie if he ( **Sangfroid** ) was also a wolf? That’s what I cannot get my head around. I keep coming back to this, but unless they are all wolves, then he had the option of a town player to lynch in his tie. And if we were dispirited before, we certainly would have felt lost if we had lynched a town player yesterDay. Possible explanation: Because it would have put even more suspicion on him. If we’d lynched a townie yesterday because of **Sario** ’s change of mind, I think we would have been fairly certain of who to vote for toDay. Dead town\*\*Sangfroid \*\*would also have put even more suspicion on me and could have put suspicion back on **TexCat** as a possible alpha. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1362 "2015-08-22T13:04:08Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > At the end of the day, this is irrelevant to whether you’re wolf or scum. :rolleyes: Wolf or town. One day I will get through a post without needing an edit. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1363 "2015-08-22T13:34:54Z")
> [@Plumpudding](#): > > Possible explanation: Because it would have put even more suspicion on him. If we’d lynched a townie yesterday because of **Sario** ’s change of mind, I think we would have been fairly certain of who to vote for toDay. Dead town\*\*Sangfroid \*\*would also have put even more suspicion on me and could have put suspicion back on **TexCat** as a possible alpha. Perhaps. Though **Sangfroid** was the only one who still thought **TexCat** was Alpha. I have been trying to look at all the possibilites for **Sario** and his vote considering the implications in all the cases. All I know is that I’d pick a townie if I was Alpha. Especially with 25 minutes still in the Day and there was no certainty a tie would be the end result. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1364 "2015-08-22T14:05:22Z")
> [@sangfroid](#): > > Regarding the events of yesterDay, maybe there actually are a couple more wolf pals in that last vote mix, and that’s why **Sario** settled on me, but I’m not one of them. > > The only way I can prove that is by dying. Or you could give a try at answering **TexCat** ’s case against you. I don’t want to lynch town and I didn’t want to yesterDay. A question for you, **Sangfroid** : Why didn’t you try to change my mind yesterDay? At **Prof. Pepperwinkle** : Did you miss the next sentence of the post you quoted? The one where I explicitly state I’m \*not \*offering myself up as a martyr? If I go down, I’ll certainly not go down voting for myself. I’m gonna vote for whoever I find most suspicious. Anyway, I’m interested in the case against **DiggitCamara** and I’m interested in the defense. I haven’t got a strong lean either town or scum, could any of the voters sum the case up for me? ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1365 "2015-08-22T14:23:34Z")
> [@Plumpudding](#): > > Or you could give a try at answering **TexCat** ’s case against you. I don’t want to lynch town and I didn’t want to yesterDay. A question for you, **Sangfroid** : Why didn’t you try to change my mind yesterDay? > > At **Prof. Pepperwinkle** : Did you miss the next sentence of the post you quoted? The one where I explicitly state I’m \*not \*offering myself up as a martyr? If I go down, I’ll certainly not go down voting for myself. I’m gonna vote for whoever I find most suspicious. > > Anyway, I’m interested in the case against **DiggitCamara** and I’m interested in the defense. I haven’t got a strong lean either town or scum, could any of the voters sum the case up for me? I didn’t miss it, which is why I said your statement was more understandable (or words to that effect). I was still centered on Sangfroid. After Biotop’s logical refutation of that probability I still have reservations (who says they were voting rationally?), but I’m leaning towards Diggit more and more as I look at the old posts. ---
**Author:** ![sangfroid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e0b2c6/32.png) [@sangfroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sangfroid)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1366 "2015-08-22T15:32:17Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > ##### > > Oh, and **Sangfroid** , I just read your last post as I was previewing mine. There is another way to prove you are town (if you are indeed town): > > Win with us while staying alive. Actually, given the nature of the game (and this game in particular), and at this point in the game, I am inclined to agree here **Bio**. I shouldn’t have to give the wolves a freebie Town lynch just for an outside chance to implicate any of them by past voting. So what else can I do to help? ---
**Author:** ![sangfroid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e0b2c6/32.png) [@sangfroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sangfroid)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1367 "2015-08-22T15:41:18Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > At the end of the day, this is irrelevant to whether you’re wolf or scum. > > The very first game of Mafia I ever played (it was actually run here by **storyteller** ), I ended up as the alpha wolf, and you can be damn sure that I leveraged my newbieness to avoid suspicion. > > So that may create bias on my part, but I’m not inclined to trust folks who cry newbie. To me, it sounds more like crying wolf. Fair point. Accepted. Though also in fairness, this does seem like anything but a newbie game (at least here at the SD) to me. I liken it to a hypothetical GD thread: _“Great Debate: Easy Beginner Topic: Foreskins on a Runway - Should they be Tipped, and if so, How Much?”_ Hey, _this_ looks like a fun discussion… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1368 "2015-08-22T15:49:26Z")
> [@Plumpudding](#): > > Anyway, I’m interested in the case against **DiggitCamara** and I’m interested in the defense. I haven’t got a strong lean either town or scum, could any of the voters sum the case up for me? For me, it’s primarily voting patterns. First, he said that **Dante** ’s “tip my hand” post was one of the scummiest things he’d ever seen, and was the second vote on Dante right at the outset. I can’t judge him harshly for that - I was skeptical of the same thing and **Dante** did take a lot of heat. Remember the “scummiest things” bit, though. Then he voted for himself, then after un-self-voting, he switched to **septimus** , thusly: > [@](#): > > First things first > > Unvote DiggitCamara > > As for my vote, I was unable to connect yesterday and I don’t have that much time right now. So, on a general feel from the current mood in Town, I will > > vote septimus > > Seems the scummiest of the candidates so far. This was the almighty third vote against **septimus**. It occurred at a time when our vote leader was a wolf ( **JSexton** ). It is notable that he didn’t vote for **TexCat** , however, which would have put her right in the lead. The vote for **septimus** made the count 4-4-3-3, which was wolf-town-town-town. The next vote was **Sario** on top of **septimus** , 4-4-4 and the cluster was a-fucking. Later, at 564, he explains his reasons further: > [@](#): > > This is the main reason I leave my vote on septimus. > > 1. Finds a flaw in the plan which actually might make it more favorable to the Wolves > 2. After the “plan” peters out, gives it a jump-start to get it rolling again despite > 3. Not having a real argument to discount the flaw he pointed out in the plan > > Which, basically, amounts to seeing an advantage in the “plan” (for Wolves) and therefore convincing Town to adopt it. I am, for the moment, ignoring the logic of the vote itself - I don’t think it’s great but everybody can decide that for themselves, as I don’t think it’s what’s interesting. What I think is interesting is he’s referring to a post from before the self-voting scheme, about the self-voting scheme, as the reason his vote is staying on **septimus**. So, recap – votes Town **Dante** for one of the scummiest things he’s ever seen. Then **septimus** gets the ball rolling on self-votes and makes a post about it, and **Diggit** self-votes. At this point, he’s read both **Dante** ’s scummiest thing ever, and **septimus** ’ self-vote discussion. Then **Diggit** votes **septimus** on the “general feel from the current mood in Town,” because he “seemed the scummiest.” Not specifically because of the self-vote post. Then later **Diggit** circles back to that post by **septimus** , and says that’s why his vote is “staying.” But it would have had to have been the justification in the first place. **Diggit** does not post again that Day, and **septimus** , who is Town, gets got. So, next day. What’s our plan?! **Diggit** ’s ready: > [@](#): > > > [@Thing Fish](#): > > > > (snip) > > Then, suddenly septimus gets three more votes, from Diggit, Sario, and Dante G. None of them justified their votes at all; Diggit said he “seems the scummiest”, Sario said he “agrees with the case against Septimus” (what case?!), and Dante G claims that Johnny Bravo “pointed out some pretty convincing things.” I would bet my eyeteeth that there are at least two scum among those three. > > (snip) > > I take issue with this part of your post. Not because it’s untrue but because: > > 1. At the time I only could add a quick post (because of real life issues) > which I amended in this post > > [Quote=DiggitCamara] > > This is the main reason I leave my vote on septimus. > > 1. Finds a flaw in the plan which actually might make it more favorable to the Wolves > 2. After the “plan” peters out, gives it a jump-start to get it rolling again despite > 3. Not having a real argument to discount the flaw he pointed out in the plan > > Which, basically, amounts to seeing an advantage in the “plan” (for Wolves) and therefore convincing Town to adopt it. I didn’t see an explanation by septimus after that and therefore didn’t remove my vote from him. However, I should point out that I actually should have left my vote on DanteG, mostly because he never explained (to my satisfaction) his strangely “aloof” posts concerning this game, overall. So: Vote DanteG [/quote] Second vote on **Dante**. Justification is identical to his justification before he elevated **septimus** above him as a lynch candidate, which he just flatly says he shouldn’t have done. **Diggit** does not post any further voting-related content, although he posts a few times about meta-strategish stuff. **Dante** gets got. **Dante** is Town. Next Day, **Diggit** and everyone else votes **JSexton**. At 1010, **Diggit** says **precambrianmollusc** ’s paranoid questioning whether **Bayard** would fake-claim Seer is: > [@](#): > > one of the scummiest ideas I have ever seen. He promises he will vote for him the next day. He does, at 1129, provides more justification at 1134, give some metagame commentary at 1141 and then checks out for 8 days. So, all told, that’s two people who have done the scummiest thing he’s ever seen in one context or another, two Townies he’s made early-day votes on and left them there while they got lynched – one of whom was the person who made the “scummiest… ever” posts and one of whom was someone _else_ AFTER that other person made the “scummiest… ever” post but BEFORE he voted that person for good, one timeline justifying that vote that doesn’t really add up, and basically no late Day behavior of any importance at any point in the game. If you’re gonna lay low, this is how you do that. ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1369 "2015-08-22T16:28:41Z")
Thanks **Jimmy** , that’s a pretty convincing post. I’ve been looking back and I also find this a bit strange: > [@Biotop](#): > > [Snip] > I was wondering if making a wild ass guess at who _all_ the wolves are would be a helpful tactic. Bear with me a moment. While most any wild guess would most surely be wrong, there are some suspects who lead to others (Example: If **Prof. Pepperwinkle** then **TexCat** …) There are people we each believe are town. (Example: My example here is **Bayard** , who probably would not have gone to all the trouble to write that long post with spoiler if he was wolf, IMHO). Thete ate players who, if we suppose them not guilty > > Then there are the people we don’t have a read on. > [Snip] > [@DiggitCamara](#): > > That sounds like an exceedingly ambitious goal to reach, and one that could backfire in a million ways. Say, for instance, that you publish your list and get the list right on its first position. But the second and the third are wrong. When the first Wolf gets exposed, the Wolves would be wise to leave the second and third alone, thus “confirming” your suspicions and this would lead to two mis-lynches afterward. > > There’s another problem: In my experience it’s more likely that Wolves don’t interact that much during the Day. This is useful during the latter Days but not at all during the first couple of Days where most players don’t interact simply because we tend to focus our attention on those who either agree with our pet theory or who have slighted us (Plumpudding and Texcat are textbook examples of this. I would bet my life on at least one of them being Town, but heck if I know which one). > > My advice would be: keep your List to yourself. Unless, of course, you are a far better player than I have ever been. As an answer to **Biotop** ’s idea, I don’t see this as particularly suspicious, but: > [@Biotop](#): > > [Snip] > But I do see advantages if several people were to post their lists if only to see what common names were showing up. I don’t think anyone would seriously consider my whole list or anyone else’s list as something other than a wild guess, but if a wolf had to post his/her list it might be revealing.[Snip] > [@DiggitCamara](#): > > This is, of course, a wholly different beast. Indeed, I would see quite a benefit in this because it would be much more benficial than the usual “hunting for clues” which ensues when/if the Seer is Nightkilled (assuming, of course, that the Seer is one of the players who publishes his/her findings along with others). > > Downside (especially if we consider the Seer participating in this effort): the Wolves could see who is “eerily correct” and target him/her because of that knowledge. > > The longer I think about it, the more I believe that this is a pretty good idea, but that it shouldn’t be executed toDay or even toMorrow but just after that. That way, the Seer’s knowledge wouldn’t die with him/her; (s)he would have accumulated enough knowledge to make it worthwhile to risk exposure; the Wolves would be easier to spot by their “suspicions”. This I find pretty strange. First of all, \*\*Biotop \*\*didn’t modify his plan in any way. He formulated the same plan twice, but apparently it looks more convincing the second time? The downside \*\*Diggit \*\*points out, is a downside no matter if we post lists or not. Players who are “eerily correct” are in danger of being killed off anyway. So, a full flip on the same idea, with some shoddy reasoning thrown in for good measure. I also don’t find **Diggit** ’s responses to **Thing Fish** later on all that convincing. Your case is winning me over **Jimmy**. I’ve looked over his history, I’ve gotten little by the content alone, but combined with his low participation in general, you present a pretty compelling case against him. I’m looking forward to **DiggitCamara** ’s defense, but till then I’m gonna go ahead and vote DiggitCamara. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1370 "2015-08-22T19:18:28Z")
Lunchtime: I am not sure the case against **DiggitCamara** is super strong, but until something better comes along I am keeping my vote there. Three questions to ask: 1. What additional information might we infer if **DiggitCamara** turns up town? 2. What additional information if he turns up wolf? 3. And is there anyone else we are suspicious of would give us more information if we lynched that player instead? ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1371 "2015-08-22T21:05:53Z")
> [@Plumpudding](#): > > (snip) > > This I find pretty strange. First of all, \*\*Biotop \*\*didn’t modify his plan in any way. He formulated the same plan twice, but apparently it looks more convincing the second time? The downside \*\*Diggit \*\*points out, is a downside no matter if we post lists or not. Players who are “eerily correct” are in danger of being killed off anyway. So, a full flip on the same idea, with some shoddy reasoning thrown in for good measure(snip) > Your case is winning me over **Jimmy**. I’ve looked over his history, I’ve gotten little by the content alone, but combined with his low participation in general, you present a pretty compelling case against him. I’m looking forward to **DiggitCamara** ’s defense, but till then I’m gonna go ahead (snip) This is what you believe is a “full flip”? > [@diggitcamara](#): > > The longer I think about it, the more I believe that this is a pretty good idea, but that it shouldn’t be executed toDay or even toMorrow but just after that. I mean… what do you want me to say? I had a bit of time, I kept thinking about the idea and because “the longer I thought about it” I suggested that it be implemented, not during that Day but later on… So: 1. I disagree with an idea 2. I keep thinking about it and even though it hasn’t really changed in the meantime it kinda wins me over 3. I suggest an amended version is implemented later on Mind you: this is a discussion about an idea, which isn’t even implemented. Not even a vote. Pretty shallow reason to vote for someone ---
**Author:** ![Cygnus42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Cygnus42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cygnus42)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1372 "2015-08-23T03:43:12Z")
Quick vote count, based on my scanning through the last couple pages and looking for colored text: \*\*Diggitcamara \*\*- 4 votes: PCM, Johnny Bravo, Biotop, Plumpudding \*\*Sangfroid \*\*- 1 vote: Prof P \*\*Plumpudding \*\*- 1 vote: Thing Fish Still several people without votes on the board, including myself… I’m buying the case for \*\*Diggit \*\*a bit more, though admittedly it’s not super strong. The concept of \*\*sangfroid \*\*using ‘confused townie’ as a cover for wolfiness is also a strong possibility. The mysterious end-of day voting, where we ended up with Sario and a tie…wolf cover, voting slip-up, who knows… As for the question of information, we as town would probably learn the most from a **Plumpudding** lynch, even if he turned up town - simply because he’s had the most interactions with other players. \*\*Diggit \*\*and \*\*sangfroid \*\*haven’t had as many interactions with the rest of the world. Obviously we don’t want to lynch any more town, and I think Plum is my lowest level of suspicion of those 3. For now, I’m going to \*\* vote sangfroid\*\*. I kinda don’t want this to turn into a runaway bandwagon on **Diggit** , without keeping other options open. It may well be the case that Diggit is scum, so I’m not trying to discourage anyone else from going that way. I reserve the right to modify that based on whatever shenanigans go on tomorrow & Monday morning. I’ll be back in front of a PC on Monday, so I will have time to make adjustments if necessary (and hopefully not 2 minutes before EOD). ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1373 "2015-08-23T05:02:52Z")
The only two other players whom I completely trust have now both voted for **Sangfroid**. Yet I cannot see why. **Sario** , the friggin’ Alpha wolf, voted for the guy! **Sario** almost got **Sangfroid** lynched. **Sario** could have voted for **PlumPuddin** g: All he would have had to do is say he agreed with **Thing Fish** ’s analysis. That and a few comments about how he was unfairly being targeted because of his busy personal life. That would have been enough to avoid obvious suspicion. BUT HE DID NOT DO THAT. If\*\* Plum\*\* and **Sangfroid** are both scum, wouldn’t it make more sense to vote for **Plum** and look like a hero for joining the right side of that debate when \*\*Plum \*\*was revealed? If **Plum** is town and **Sangfroid** scum, he could have voted for **Plum** and few would have faulted **Sario** if the votes had caused a town **Plum** to be lynched. He could have voted for **DiggitCamara** : The excuse could have been the same, to “get a vote on the record.” If **DiggitCamara** was scum and **Sangfroid** is scum, then it would make no difference. If **DiggitCamara** is town and **Sangfroid** scum, why not vote for **DiggitCamara**? BUT HE DID NOT DO THAT! He could have voted for **Precambrianmullosc: \*\* He could have used Precam’s doubting response to JSexton’s claim as an excuse. If **Precam\*\* is scum and** Sangfroid **is scum, then it would make no difference. If** Precam is town and Sangfroid scum, why not vote for Precam**? BUT HE DID NOT DO THAT! I have a hard time reading both **Precam** and **Diggi** t as both scum because of how they went after each other after **JSexton** ’s claim. So at least one should have been a tempting town target for **Sario** if **Sangfroid** is wolf. Why not vote for that target? **Prof. Pepperwinkle, Cygnus** , tell me what I am missing? ---
**Author:** ![Plumpudding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@Plumpudding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plumpudding)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1374 "2015-08-23T12:55:36Z")
> [@DiggitCamara](#): > > This is what you believe is a “full flip”? > I mean… what do you want me to say? I had a bit of time, I kept thinking about the idea and because “the longer I thought about it” I suggested that it be implemented, not during that Day but later on… > > So: > > 1. I disagree with an idea > 2. I keep thinking about it and even though it hasn’t really changed in the meantime it kinda wins me over > 3. I suggest an amended version is implemented later on > > Mind you: this is a discussion about an idea, which isn’t even implemented. Not even a vote. > > Pretty shallow reason to vote for someone Nah, I got convinced by **Jimmy** ’s case. Why do you chose to answer my one additional objection, rather than giving a proper defense? ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1375 "2015-08-23T13:29:26Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > The only two other players whom I completely trust have now both voted for **Sangfroid**. Yet I cannot see why. **Sario** , the friggin’ Alpha wolf, voted for the guy! **Sario** almost got **Sangfroid** lynched. > > **Sario** could have voted for **PlumPuddin** g: > > All he would have had to do is say he agreed with **Thing Fish** ’s analysis. That and a few comments about how he was unfairly being targeted because of his busy personal life. That would have been enough to avoid obvious suspicion. BUT HE DID NOT DO THAT. If\*\* Plum\*\* and **Sangfroid** are both scum, wouldn’t it make more sense to vote for **Plum** and look like a hero for joining the right side of that debate when \*\*Plum \*\*was revealed? If **Plum** is town and **Sangfroid** scum, he could have voted for **Plum** and few would have faulted **Sario** if the votes had caused a town **Plum** to be lynched. > > He could have voted for **DiggitCamara** : > > The excuse could have been the same, to “get a vote on the record.” If **DiggitCamara** was scum and **Sangfroid** is scum, then it would make no difference. If **DiggitCamara** is town and **Sangfroid** scum, why not vote for **DiggitCamara**? BUT HE DID NOT DO THAT! > > He could have voted for **Precambrianmullosc: > \*\* > He could have used Precam’s doubting response to JSexton’s claim as an excuse. If **Precam\*\* is scum and** Sangfroid **is scum, then it would make no difference. If** Precam is town and Sangfroid scum, why not vote for Precam**? BUT HE DID NOT DO THAT! > > I have a hard time reading both **Precam** and **Diggi** t as both scum because of how they went after each other after **JSexton** ’s claim. So at least one should have been a tempting town target for **Sario** if **Sangfroid** is wolf. Why not vote for that target? > > **Prof. Pepperwinkle, Cygnus** , tell me what I am missing? I don’t see anything your missing, except that MAYBE Precam and Diggit are scum and voting for each other just to cover their bases. And maybe not. Unvote Sangfroid. I’m still reading and thinking over at these nearly 1,400 posts, and looking at tips from other Mafia sites. I’ll vote again later today. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1376 "2015-08-23T13:31:47Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > The only two other players whom I completely trust have now both voted for **Sangfroid**. Yet I cannot see why. **Sario** , the friggin’ Alpha wolf, voted for the guy! **Sario** almost got **Sangfroid** lynched. One thing I’ve felt needed to be pointed out, which is also applicable here, is that any time something seems obviously to have been something only a Town player would do, or something that a wolf would only do TO a Town player, that alone is good enough reason for a wolf to do it, or do it to a wolf. Taken to an extreme, this would be an argument that wolves don’t play any differently from Town players, and I’m not trying to say that. But the wolves are not going to be so oblivious as to not know about the old fakeout. You, **Prof. P** and **Cygnus** were the three-person team that led to the lynching of the Alpha. That’s a very pro-Town thing to be. But since everyone knows that (and as we’ve seen, most everyone seems convinced by it and lots of players seem to be leaning really heavily on it for analysis) it can also be a hell of a place to be as a wolf, if the perceived Townie cred one gets from being on that team can carry through to the endgame before the confusion catches up with everyone and they have to revisit their priors. Same deal with **sangfroid** and the “if X is a wolf, **Sario** would never do Z” idea. That is, in and of itself, a belief that gives **Sario** a reason to do Z. A very high-profile Town move is a smart thing for a wolf to do, even if it hurts the wolves in the short term, as long as they’re making enough back on the margins. I’m not that moved against **sangfroid** either, at this point, but I do think it’s an idea that should be out there sooner, rather than later (not that I think I’m that likely a nightkill candidate). Trust but verify. If it seems obviously evidence of something, it would’ve been equally obvious to a wolf that it would have seemed so, so it’s more a balance of probabilities than eliminating possibilities altogether. That’s part of why I’ve been complaining about people propping their votes against others’ cases entirely. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1377 "2015-08-23T13:55:52Z")
**Jimmy Chitwood** , you have a point. I fail to understand why wolf **Sario** would vote for wolf \*\* Sangfroid\*\*. But I also fail to understand why town \*\* Sangfroid\*\* would not vote **Sario** to save himself. That’s almost as bizarre as a wolf voting for another wolf. **Prof. Pepperwinkle** , you have been right twice before. What do you think? ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1378 "2015-08-23T14:06:50Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > **Jimmy Chitwood** , you have a point. I fail to understand why wolf **Sario** would vote for wolf \*\* Sangfroid\*\*. But I also fail to understand why town \*\* Sangfroid\*\* would not vote **Sario** to save himself. That’s almost as bizarre as a wolf voting for another wolf. > > **Prof. Pepperwinkle** , you have been right twice before. What do you think? I think that **Sario** posted so little with content we have no reasonable way of following his probable thought processes. Which is way I’m switching my vote, but keeping\*\* Sangfroid\*\* still on my short list. Unless… would we learn more from a tie vote between **Sangfroid** and **Diggit**? ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1379 "2015-08-23T14:29:08Z")
One more question bothers me: Why, oh why, didn’t \*\*Sangfroid \*\*switch his vote to **Sario** to be safe? He was on and posting right up to the end. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099/1380 "2015-08-23T14:46:57Z")
For my money, if we have no better options than to try to guess at the intentions of the departed, the other side of that transaction is much more telling. **Sario** had to do something to try to save himself. What he chose was to put **Sangfroid** up on the block. A Town player has a legitimate reason to be uncertain and act weirdly under the circumstances. A wolf is acting on perfect information. The wolf tried to get **Sangfroid** killed. **Sangfroid** being a wolf requires that we infer a much more complicated plan than **Sangfroid** being Town, and I don’t see why we have any reason to do that at this point. Frankly, I think it would be a little nuts that the person the Alpha wanted us to lynch would be the _very next person_ we lynched after the Alpha. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099.md?page=68) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-ideal-for-beginners-game-in-progress/725099.md?page=70)