# Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [April 17, 2007, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527 "2007-04-17T21:34:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 65
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1281 "2007-05-08T22:05:54Z")
[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies] I still have my eye on CarieD, but she’s been very quietly lately… I’ve also been thinking about how jagged and bitter the pill would be if, after 2 days when the votes were tied between two town candidates that result in two town hangings, we balk at an apparent tie between two scum, but then spin off into some new strategic territory because we’re gunshy. I fear that we may be on the threshold of doing just that. [/QUOTE] I can’t remember who said it, and I don’t really have the time to look it up right now… but, well… we seem to be doing such a good job of doing the Mafia’s job right now, don’t we? So far we’ve managed to lynch nothing but townfolk, using our existing strategies. Maybe it’s time to rethink? Hell, I know my previous strategies weren’t working- I managed to vote for townies, myself. Tonight I’m going to sit down and just look at who’s managed to avoid any real suspicion, because if we’ve been doing so badly so far, maybe the ones that have managed to avoid suspicion completely are the ones we need to look at. I’m not just saying this because I’m under suspicion. I’m saying it because, so far, the scum are kicking our collective asses, and maybe it’s time for us to examine why that’s been happening. ---
**Author:** ![nesta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a4c791/32.png) [@nesta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nesta)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1282 "2007-05-08T22:07:23Z")
[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies] I still have my eye on CarieD, but she’s been very quietly lately… I’ve also been thinking about how jagged and bitter the pill would be if, after 2 days when the votes were tied between two town candidates that result in two town hangings, we balk at an apparent tie between two scum, but then spin off into some new strategic territory because we’re gunshy. I fear that we may be on the threshold of doing just that. [/QUOTE] That’s a big fear of mine too. We have a horrible track record, and here we have **fluiddruid** defending herself well, and **Lightnin’** hardly defending himself at all (because he’s been doing it since Day 1). Are they both scum? If so, huzzah, we might actually win this one if we lynch them in short order. If they aren’t, though, we almost guaranty ourselves a loss by lynching them. This game hurts my head. I think I’ll probably end up voting for **fluiddruid** today, but not before I’ve really weighed everyone else, including **Lightnin’**. I am gunshy. I feel that if we lynch a townie today that it will be almost impossible to recover from since we’re bound to get a couple wrong before getting all of them. ---
**Author:** ![nesta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a4c791/32.png) [@nesta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nesta)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1283 "2007-05-08T22:20:28Z")
[QUOTE=CaerieD] We have to keep in mind that town can be swayed to defend Mafia, though. I’m not convinced of the case against **Lightnin’** , but the fact that someone who’s been acting very trustworthy helped stop the bandwagon against him doesn’t necessarily make him town. There might have been a concerted Mafia effort to save him or it could have been unfortunate choices by townies. [/QUOTE] True, it’s very possible that **tirial** is town and helped derail the bandwagon against scum. If we think that the **percypercy** bandwagon was scum driven to take the heat off of **Lightnin’** , which I’m still on the fence about, then those who took a direct role at diffusing the **Lightnin’** bandwagon start to look more scummy. It just gave me a little pause when I realized that this line of thinking was implicating someone I had on the town side of my suspicion list. ---
**Author:** ![nesta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a4c791/32.png) [@nesta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nesta)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1284 "2007-05-08T22:29:57Z")
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara] There are several other interesting posts that several parties made that day, but all hinges on that important question: Is \*\*Lightnin’ \*\* scum? [/QUOTE] I’m not sure we get much information if he isn’t, though, and the death of another townie comes at a huge cost to our chances of winning. This is why I’m so gun-shy right now. I’m still rather suspicious of **Lightnin’** , though not as much as of **fluiddruid** , but if we lynch **Lightnin’** and it turns out we were wrong, do you think that opens the door to anybody who must be scum? If it doesn’t, can we afford to get it wrong? If it does, who do you think it would reveal so I can keep them in mind as I review the thread? ---
**Author:** ![Rachm\_Qoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a8b319/32.png) [@Rachm\_Qoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachm_Qoch)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1285 "2007-05-08T22:31:44Z")
[QUOTE=fluiddruid] Day One: Projammer vs Percypercy (with Lightnin in 3rd) [TOWN VS TOWN, 3rd person unknown] Day Two: Projammer vs Dnooman [TOWN VS TOWN] Day Three: Projammer vs Fluiddruid Day Four (so far): Lightnin vs Fluiddruid I have been held to task for my votes in the first two days. Yet, how much sense does this make? Why would the Mafia care to manipulate a voting match that came down to town vs town? [/QUOTE] As others have noted, Day One was less of **Projammer** vs. **percypercy** than **Lightnin** vs. half the town. At the time you voted for **percypercy** , I believe **Lightin** had had both **SCL** and **Millit** voting for him – **percy** wasn’t even in the top three. Two yet-to-be-determined players buffeted **Projammer** and **percypercy**. How can you characterize that as town vs. town? ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1286 "2007-05-08T22:36:36Z")
**Updated Vote Count** 4 – **fluiddruid** (Idle Thoughts, tirial, SnakesCatLady, Blaster Master) 1 – **Lightnin’** (DiggitCamara) 1 – **SnakesCatLasy** (fluiddruid) ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1287 "2007-05-08T22:41:05Z")
If Lightning turns out to be scum, then I guess tirial and I look pretty suspicious. But I honestly don’t have much of a scummy vibe from him, and lynching him just to prove that he’s town is wrongheaded. We don’t want to lynch people we’re pretty sure are town to prove they’re town, we want to lynch people we’re pretty sure are scum to prove they’re scum. So if you really do think Lightning is scum then go ahead and vote for him, but I STILL don’t understand why he’s high on everyone’s list, just because he freaked out on the first day when everyone targeted him. That’s a newbie tell, not a scum tell. I don’t want to kill Lightning just to take sucpicion off of me. Although neither do I want to kill Lightning and have him turn up scum, because then I’m probably next. ---
**Author:** ![CaerieD](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/da6949/32.png) [@CaerieD](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaerieD)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1288 "2007-05-08T22:48:57Z")
Looking over previous votes, I just noticed that neither of our townies killed during the night– **NAF** and **Kyrie** –put _final_ votes on someone who has since been confirmed town. Day One, NAF waffles between **fluiddruid** and **Lightnin’**. Final vote is for **Lightnin’**. Kyrie goes between **NAF** and **Omi**. Final vote is for **Omi**. Day Two, NAF is out of the game. Now Kyrie waits until that day is nearly over before finally voting for **fluiddruid**. Could those final votes have been why they ended up getting taken out? I’m disinclined to think the Mafia would be so obvious as to kill those who voted against them, but it does make you wonder at the coincidence of it. If they turn up town, I’ll feel more certain about my theory on the Mafia targeting townies who had voted against other townies. If one is scum, on the other hand, it might make it more likely that the other one is as well, if the Mafia really is going after those who point fingers at them. ---
**Author:** ![nesta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a4c791/32.png) [@nesta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nesta)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1289 "2007-05-08T23:06:23Z")
[QUOTE=CaerieD] Looking over previous votes, I just noticed that neither of our townies killed during the night– **NAF** and **Kyrie** –put _final_ votes on someone who has since been confirmed town. Day One, NAF waffles between **fluiddruid** and **Lightnin’**. Final vote is for **Lightnin’**. Kyrie goes between **NAF** and **Omi**. Final vote is for **Omi**. [/QUOTE] Maybe I’m misunderstanding you here, but if you mean by “final vote” who their vote was on at the end of the day, you’re wrong. On Day 1 **NAF1138** voted for **Projammer** , confirmed town, and left it there until the end of the day. That was his final vote. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1290 "2007-05-08T23:20:55Z")
> [@DiggitCamara](#): > > There are several other interesting posts that several parties made that day, but all hinges on that important question: Is Lightnin’ scum? [QUOTE=nesta] I’m not sure we get much information if he isn’t, though, and the death of another townie comes at a huge cost to our chances of winning. (snip) [/QUOTE] I beg to differ. I’ve already outlined some of the advantages from knowing Lightnin’s status as a citizen: 1. Those who tried to derail the **Lightnin’** train get a decidedly unscummy look 2. We would know the prevailing strategy of Mafia was to leave town lynching be, as long as it didn’t involve scum (\*\*Lightnin’\*\*s “train” would have no added benefit for scum, since the other possible victims were also citizens) 3. (from 2) We could start sifting trough the votes of those who didn’t vote to lynch the 3 victims, to see who is likelier scum ---
**Author:** ![SnakesCatLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4af34b/32.png) [@SnakesCatLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SnakesCatLady)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1291 "2007-05-08T23:27:57Z")
[QUOTE=Gadarene] **Updated Vote Count** 4 – **fluiddruid** (Idle Thoughts, tirial, SnakesCatLady, Blaster Master) 1 – **Lightnin’** (DiggitCamara) 1 – **SnakesCatLasy** (fluiddruid) [/QUOTE] I’m not “lasy”! The cats, however, are lazy. ---
**Author:** ![Omi\_no\_Kami](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a88e4f/32.png) [@Omi\_no\_Kami](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omi_no_Kami)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1292 "2007-05-08T23:36:00Z")
vote fluiddruid I’m not convinced he’s guilty, but I’m sick of taking shit for my play and he’s the best lead I have. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1293 "2007-05-08T23:36:50Z")
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara] I beg to differ. I’ve already outlined some of the advantages from knowing Lightnin’s status as a citizen: 1. Those who tried to derail the **Lightnin’** train get a decidedly unscummy look 2. We would know the prevailing strategy of Mafia was to leave town lynching be, as long as it didn’t involve scum (\*\*Lightnin’\*\*s “train” would have no added benefit for scum, since the other possible victims were also citizens) 3. (from 2) We could start sifting trough the votes of those who didn’t vote to lynch the 3 victims, to see who is likelier scum [/QUOTE] 1. At the cost of killing off one of the few remaining Townies, seriously jeopardizing the chance of a Town victory. 2. Isn’t this something we can already surmise? Hell, I would think that’d be standard strategy. Of COURSE scum won’t vote on town-vs-town lynchings, or would at least to try to organize such that they don’t preferentially lynch one or the other. If it’s town-vs-town, why would they really care who gets the rope? 3. We can already see this. You’re certainly willing to kill off players to find out who’s Scum. You’re not looking at my voting record, you’re just making the case that it’s best to kill me off to find out. At this point, we’ve already lost too many townies, and it’s pretty clear that we can’t spare any more town. Frankly, if I wasn’t me, that’d be making me nervous, right there. ---
**Author:** ![SnakesCatLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4af34b/32.png) [@SnakesCatLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SnakesCatLady)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1294 "2007-05-08T23:43:12Z")
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara] 1. (from 2) We could start sifting trough the votes of those who didn’t vote to lynch the 3 victims, to see who is likelier scum [/QUOTE] So not voting to lynch someone you don’t think is scum is a scum tell? I’m afraid I don’t follow that. I have said repeatedly I will not vote to lynch someone I don’t think is scum. How does that make me scum? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1295 "2007-05-08T23:44:08Z")
I’m gonna come out and FOS DiggitCamara for his suggestion that we lynch Lightning just to confirm that the people who voted not to kill him aren’t scummy. That’s crazy talk. You should only vote to lynch Lightning if he is your top scum candidate. Voting for anyone else other than your top scum candidate is crazy. I’m not gonna FOS anyone who votes to lynch Lightning, but I sure am gonna FOS anyone who votes on such a flimsy pretext. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1296 "2007-05-08T23:50:09Z")
[QUOTE=SnakesCatLady] So not voting to lynch someone you don’t think is scum is a scum tell? I’m afraid I don’t follow that. I have said repeatedly I will not vote to lynch someone I don’t think is scum. How does that make me scum? [/QUOTE] Not what I said. What I meant was: if scum see a contest to lynch two townies, promoted and kept alive by townies, they might very well keep their hands out of the fray. That way, whoever gets lynched, they can claim they didn’t have anything to do with it. ---
**Author:** ![CaerieD](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/da6949/32.png) [@CaerieD](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaerieD)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1297 "2007-05-08T23:55:41Z")
[QUOTE=nesta] Maybe I’m misunderstanding you here, but if you mean by “final vote” who their vote was on at the end of the day, you’re wrong. On Day 1 **NAF1138** voted for **Projammer** , confirmed town, and left it there until the end of the day. That was his final vote. [/QUOTE] Did he? Oh, geez. Okay, never mind then. If that’s the case, [Millit the Frail](http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pV4U-YLSC8rukZYCmT2fqeQ)’s spreadsheet is inaccurate. Or am I reading this wrong? My votes look to have been recorded properly but **NAF** and **Kyrie** ’s votes are definitely off. And here I’d thought I was really onto something. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1298 "2007-05-08T23:56:03Z")
[QUOTE=Lemur866] I’m gonna come out and FOS DiggitCamara for his suggestion that we lynch Lightning just to confirm that the people who voted not to kill him aren’t scummy. That’s crazy talk. You should only vote to lynch Lightning if he is your top scum candidate. Voting for anyone else other than your top scum candidate is crazy. I’m not gonna FOS anyone who votes to lynch Lightning, but I sure am gonna FOS anyone who votes on such a flimsy pretext. [/QUOTE] ummm… most people on day 3 voted for who they thought was “top scum” candidate. What I’m saying is simple: We already have a nugget of information: on day two, when we had a confirmed race between two townies, there was no sudden rush to kill one of them (hence the coin flip). Did we, by pure chance, find out a Mafia member? Did we, by pure chance, cause him to panic? Did we, by pure chance, cause a reaction among his fellow scum? (and, just to complete my information: **Lightnin’** , because of: 1. His voting pattern 2. Scarcity of his posting 3. Scarcity of content in his posting is my top scum candidate) ---
**Author:** ![Millit\_the\_Frail](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/51bf81/32.png) [@Millit\_the\_Frail](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Millit_the_Frail)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2007, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1299 "2007-05-09T01:48:10Z")
[QUOTE=CaerieD] Did he? Oh, geez. Okay, never mind then. If that’s the case, [Millit the Frail](http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pV4U-YLSC8rukZYCmT2fqeQ)’s spreadsheet is inaccurate. Or am I reading this wrong? My votes look to have been recorded properly but **NAF** and **Kyrie** ’s votes are definitely off. And here I’d thought I was really onto something. [/QUOTE] Apologies. I’ve corrected it. NAF voted for **Projammer** later in the day, **Lightnin’** earlier. Please alert me about any other possible errors. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2007, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527/1300 "2007-05-09T05:11:32Z")
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara] I’ve already outlined some of the advantages from knowing Lightnin’s status as a citizen… [/QUOTE] I agree that we would gain information from **Lightnin’** , and I also agree that we potentially glean information from the vote shifting on day one away from him. I also agree that he looks mighty scummy (as I’ve outlined earlier). However, in my estimation, it appears that bother \*\*fluiddruid \*\* and **Lightnin’** are on the same side; **CaerieD** seems to be in that cluster a bit too (though not quite as strongly). Therefore, I’m of the mind that, whichever one is lynched, we can make much stronger assumptions about the other’s status. Let’s assume **fluiddruid** will get lynched (as it’s looking right now), and she comes up scum, then it REALLY looks like she orchestrated a bandwagon to save **Lightnin’** , and I will have about zero doubt left that he is scum as well. OTOH, if **fluiddruid** comes up townie, then all of this vote manipulation stuff to save **Lightnin’** pretty much goes bye-bye, and then we’re stuck back with basically nothing. I think similar logic could be applied if we end up lynching **Lightnin’** instead. That said, I think we’ll gain about the same amount of information regardless of which of the two we lynch. Thus, though I appreciate and agree with your suspicion of him, I don’t think information gain is sufficient reason to necessarily prefer him over **fluiddruid**. OTOH, as you’ve also pointed out, his post have been overall less contributive than **fluiddruid** ’s, and I’m admittedly intrigued by her defense (I’ll have to give it some more thought). So if we go by that, IF both are town, I would argue that \*\*Lightnin’ \*\* is less of a loss than **fluiddruid** ; but if both are scum, **fluiddruid** is more damaging to the mafia that losing **Lightnin’**. That all said, pending my further review of **fluiddruid** ’s defense (probably some time tomorrow), I expect I’ll keep my vote there, and if she’s scum, well, we know where to go next. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527.md?page=64) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-game-iii-kinder-and-gentler/400527.md?page=66)