# MAFIA: The Road to Canterbury - Game Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 21, 2012, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807 "2012-06-21T01:57:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Enderw24](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ba9def/32.png) [@Enderw24](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enderw24)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/161 "2012-06-25T17:23:38Z")
> [@Snickers](#): > > Oh. That makes sense. And I’m sure your result is correct, but I have to nitpick your equation transcribing: that should be 1 - ((15/19)\*3), not 1 - (15/19)^3 (as you posted). I was all, “raised to the third? What?” 😉 No, it was correct above. It’s not 15_3/19_3. It is 15/19 times itself twice or raised to the third. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/162 "2012-06-25T17:25:03Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > The difference is that I think there’s a slight possibility that you created that impression deliberately. Hm. Ok, I’ll grudgingly admit that that can be read with an air of feigned innocence (technically, pretty much _anything_ can, but that line definitely moreso). > [@Stanislaus](#): > > I understand that you think there are benefits to working out what tools the scum picked, but I don’t see it. Let’s say we agree that they picked the poison, spear and cloak alongside the knives: what do we with that? What decisions can we make to deal with those choices? As far as I can see, none. So we just stifle all discussion about the tools? Hell no. At best, we’ll be working with a frame of guesswork regarding what scum will be able to do, but at least it’s something. You’re zeroed in on finding scum – terrific, that’s the whole point of the game. But this is Day 1 – the only way we lynch scum toDay is if one of them screws up, or if we completely luck out. In the meantime, there are other avenues of discussion to be had before we get into the meat of the game. Speaking of which, what’s your take on the “No Lynch” idea? (And FTR, I agree wholeheartedly about [leaving multiple votes up](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15194604&postcount=101) at the end of the day). And while things are going on the record, I’m not really seeing the whole **Visorslash** thing. _Slight_ chance of a slip, but I’m inclined to believe he was just removing scum from the equation. ---
**Author:** ![Snickers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Snickers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snickers)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/163 "2012-06-25T17:35:13Z")
So it is. I knew I shouldn’t try to speak math. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/164 "2012-06-25T19:41:17Z")
I’m flabbergasted that no-lynch is in a tie for the lead at this point. **@Texcat, Tengu, Hal Briston:** Why are you voting not to use the **most powerful tool** town have, the lynch? Using it is the only way we can kill enough scum to win. It’s also the most powerful informational tool available to us. Killing players produces 100% reliable information on their alignment, unlike investigators in this game. The voting records produced are the second most reliable source of information available to us. I explained in [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15201269&postcount=131) why no-lynch is a pro-scum strategy. The effect of no-lynch is to give scum an extra night kill. Simple example, with 1 scum and 4 town. Numbers indicated are at the start of each Day or Night cycle. **A** Day 1: 4-1 (lynch townie) Night 1: 3-1 (NK townie) Day 2: 2-1 (LYLO reached, town must lynch the scum on this day, or lose the game) **B** Day 1: 4-1 (no lynch) Night 1: 4-1 (NK townie) Day 2: 3-1 (LYLO reached) In scenario **A** , town get two chances at lynching the scum. In scenario **B** , they only get one chance. Right now, with an odd number of players, we are in scenario **A**. No-lynch potentially reduces the number of attempts we get to catch scum. Blocks, protects and extra kills change the equation. There is a very specific case when no-lynch becomes town’s best move. If we find ourselves with an even number of players and there are no more possibilities of extra kills, blocks or protects, we should no-lynch. I’ll run the numbers again to show you why. Day 1: 3-1 (at LYLO, 1 in 4 chance of lynching scum) Night 1: 2-1 (NK townie) Day 2: 2-1 (still at LYLO, but now have 1 in 3 chance of lynching scum and winning) If we no-lynch toDay, we lose this option later in the game. (Technically, you could have a stalemate of no-lynch/no NK, but there is no fun in that. Any scum worth their salt should be prepared to take a 2 in 3 chance of winning over a draw.) The small risk of losing an important power role on Day 1 is insignificant compared to the risk of losing a lynch. Killing one could even work in our favour, if _The Squire_ and _The Parson_ are both town. I see nothing in the rules that states _The Squire_ couldn’t target the first player to die, despite the fact that _The Parson_ takes over their power. That would give us two instances of the power instead of one. **Storyteller, what happens if no-lynch wins the vote count and _The Pardoner_ invokes their power? Will we all wake up and realise this was all just a dream?** ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/165 "2012-06-25T19:49:11Z")
The math… It burns! On a more serious topic, no one has really pinged me yet, except for Visorslash as I said in my last post. I really think he’s acting scummy in every game so that when he is Scum, no one will be able to tell. Unfortunately, that means I’m leaning towards lynching him, just to be safe… Hopefully I’ll get something more solid by Dusk. Until then, I’m reserving my vote. I refuse to vote No Lynch, though. I think that’s a terrible idea, since it means 0 information gain. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/166 "2012-06-25T21:24:44Z")
> [@Alka\_Seltzer](#): > > I explained in [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15201269&postcount=131) why no-lynch is a pro-scum strategy. The effect of no-lynch is to give scum an extra night kill. Is that true in this game though? Scum have a finite number of NKs here. The strategy, as far as I can see appears to be to run out the clock on scum kills and mitigate damage due to mislynches. As for what comes after that, I’m not clear if we’re supposed to hang out in a stalemate forever or lynch anyone who suggests we start lynching on the basis that only a scum would want to lynch someone. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/167 "2012-06-25T21:46:44Z")
> [@Hal\_Briston](#): > > Speaking of which, what’s your take on the “No Lynch” idea? (And FTR, I agree wholeheartedly about [leaving multiple votes up](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15194604&postcount=101) at the end of the day). > > And while things are going on the record, I’m not really seeing the whole **Visorslash** thing. _Slight_ chance of a slip, but I’m inclined to believe he was just removing scum from the equation. My take on No-Lynch is very similar to my take on multiple votes at the end of the Day - it’s another way for Scum to avoid having to make a decision. The discussion about this has been about the advantages/disadvantages for Town: an important question is what Scum would want to happen. If we agree to No-Lynch, there are big benefits to Scum. Obviously, they don’t risk being lynched. But it goes deeper than that. They won’t have to make cases, or avoid making cases. They won’t risk attracting a few votes and having to defend themselves. They won’t have to decide between two lynch-leaders. They won’t have to decide whether to bus, defend or deflect cases against team-mates. There’ll be one less vote in their vote record. As against that, what are the downsides for them? They won’t see multiple role-claims (but they don’t _have to_). They’ll probably have one less power-role active on N1 (except the Parson will almost certainly replace the lost power.) Again, Scum don’t like having to take decisions. No-Lynch is a way for them not to. Let’s not do what they want. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/168 "2012-06-25T21:47:28Z")
OK, it is a bit of an odd setup. 7 knives plus 1 potential kill from the poison leaves us with 7 town and 4 scum remaining. 7-4 (mislynch) 6-4 (mislynch) 5-4 (scum could use spear and win at this point) With a no-lynch strategy, town then have 2 mislynches instead of the 4-5 we currently have. Clearly, no-lynch until the scum run out of knives does not advance town’s win condition. A single Day 1 no-lynch doesn’t either, for the reasons I gave in my previous post. As for engineering a stalemate with perpetual no-lynches, what on earth would be the point of that? Are we playing mafia here or not? ---
**Author:** ![MHaye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bbe5ce/32.png) [@MHaye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MHaye)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/169 "2012-06-25T21:51:16Z")
There _is_ an argument to be made in favour of no-lynch on Day 1 only. The basic consideration is that the majority (I estimate over two-thirds) of the roles are Night actors. Therefore there is a good chance that the lynched player will not have been able to use their power. Thus, a no-lynch avoids the loss of that power before it can be used. I toss this out so people can think about it. I need to work out whether the gains are worth the loss of one Lynch. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/170 "2012-06-25T22:00:38Z")
To add to Alka’s point, if we commit to No-Lynch then we’ll have played 8 Days without ever getting any kind of read on anybody, which would effectively put us starting Day 1 at 7-4. All too easy for Scum to come out on top in that scenario. If Town isn’t voting as a block, then it’s easy for Scum to control the vote - and two mislynches isn’t enough to spot the patterns. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/171 "2012-06-25T22:03:03Z")
To respond to MHaye: Mafia is not about powers! It’s about finding Scum. Powers are useful, but should not be fetishised to the extent that they stop us from doing our primary job. You can win without investigators. You can win without protectors. You can’t win without lynching Scum. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/172 "2012-06-25T22:04:26Z")
It’s late. I hate to leave in the middle of a discussion, but I’m going to. Night all. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/173 "2012-06-25T23:13:38Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > To add to Alka’s point, if we commit to No-Lynch then we’ll have played 8 Days without ever getting any kind of read on anybody, which would effectively put us starting Day 1 at 7-4. All too easy for Scum to come out on top in that scenario. If Town isn’t voting as a block, then it’s easy for Scum to control the vote - and two mislynches isn’t enough to spot the patterns. Huh? I don’t think that anyone is advocating for no-lynch beyond Today. I certainly wasn’t. I certainly don’t think anyone could possibly imagine going through the 8 Days (weeks) without lynching anyone and landing at 7-4. This is a totally false argument. You are trying to say that\*\* either \*\*we lynch _every_ Day \*\*or \*_we no-lynch_ every \*Day. ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/174 "2012-06-25T23:31:35Z")
Two separate issues **TexCat**. No-lynch toDay only is a bad strategy, and multiple no-lynches are as well. **Stanislaus** is commenting on the latter scenario, not equating the two. **@TexCat** - I repeat, why do you want to give the scum an extra night kill? ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2012, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/175 "2012-06-25T23:49:05Z")
For those advocating a no-lynch; what do you expect to change tomorrow to make a lynch worthwhile? ---
**Author:** ![Snickers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Snickers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snickers)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2012, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/176 "2012-06-26T00:05:30Z")
> [@MHaye](#): > > There _is_ an argument to be made in favour of no-lynch on Day 1 only. > > The basic consideration is that the majority (I estimate over two-thirds) of the roles are Night actors. Therefore there is a good chance that the lynched player will not have been able to use their power. Thus, a no-lynch avoids the loss of that power before it can be used. > > I toss this out so people can think about it. I need to work out whether the gains are worth the loss of one Lynch. But what happens if the investigator did choose a target that night? Can investigators choose a target and get results to the town if they’re also NK’d? If the investigators all investigate N1, as seems to be the general consensus, I’m not sure this is the case. **storyteller** , is there any order to resolution? If an investigator is NK’d and chooses a target for investigation that night, will we find out the results of his/her research? I’m not a fan of the no-lynch idea, especially D1. As everyone (else ;)) is saying about D1 investigations, we need every scrap of information we can get. And as unfortunate as mis-lynching townies is, like \*\*Alka \*\*pointed out, the lynch and our votes leading up to it are one of our few pieces of unassailable data. I think the information is worth the risk of a mis-lynch. And as unlikely as it might be, town’s succeeded in lynching scum D1 before. ---
**Author:** ![Snickers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Snickers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snickers)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2012, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/177 "2012-06-26T00:11:55Z")
> [@Enderw24](#): > > I _think_ I’m correct. But I’d be glad for the double-check. I went on the assumption that any investigator can pick any person. In that case, the odds of NOT hitting scum is 15/19. The odds of not hitting scum by three investigators is 15/19_15/19_15/19. Subtract that answer from 1 and you get 51% Sorry, back to this. While the investigator can choose anyone, he or she certainly won’t choose their own selves. So those ratios should probably be 14/18, right? (Maybe? Again, I probably shouldn’t be trying to speak math.) So that gives a 53% chance of hitting one scum with the investigations, which is the same result as **Stanislaus** ’s probability of one of the scum being an investigator. So, there’s a 53% chance that we’ll get scum, but also a 53% chance that one of our investigators _is_ scum. That sucks. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2012, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/178 "2012-06-26T00:12:44Z")
> [@](#): > > **storyteller** , is there any order to resolution? If an investigator is NK’d and chooses a target for investigation that night, will we find out the results of his/her research? In the specific case you mention, no. The investigator would complete his/her investigation, but investigation results are given to the player, not announced publicly… and the player in your scenario is dead and not able to report his/her results. ---
**Author:** ![Snickers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Snickers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snickers)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2012, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/179 "2012-06-26T00:21:11Z")
A related question: **storyteller** , in the scenario I mention, is the investigator’s power considered used if he doesn’t get to report results? The Parson inherits the power of whomever is first to be NK’d; does it matter if the power was used (and thus, in my estimation, lost)? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2012, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807/180 "2012-06-26T00:21:34Z")
Why no-lynch? Are we only suggesting this if everyone agrees to use their power toNight? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mafia-the-road-to-canterbury-game-thread/625807.md?page=10)