Democracy is in the ICU, but I don’t think its in hospice just yet. I firmly believe that the only people who actually want there to be a dictatorship are Trump and his immediate acolytes, a group that include, people like Gaetz, MTG and Boebert, but not McConnell or even DeSantis. The majority realize that the reality of king Trump would be a disaster for everyone themselves included. While they are willing to go along with Trump’s claims that the election was stolen, but that is just to keep their base scared and angry, and most importantly keeping that anger directed away from them. They want a Democracy but they want one with their thumbs on the scale strict Gerrymandering, voter suppression shaving off a few percent on the side, allowing them to with with 43-45% popular support. This is bad, but its nothing we haven’t seen as a country before, certainly not as bad as we saw under Jim Crow.
As far as how things go for the next 2-6 years, Maher is right that the Republicans will waste no time impeaching Biden on bogus chargers, but I think they are wrong that this will leave Biden wounded. If Trump survived two impeachments on solid grounds with barely a scratch, Biden can survive the same on no grounds. The Republican base really can’t get any more fired up than they already are, and the rest of the country will realize its just tit for tat. So as usual 2024 will all come down to whether the economy with the help of the fed and international events can thread the needle of dampening inflation while keeping the economy from slipping into recession. As far as a blatant steal of the election goes, the courts showed no interest in what the election deniers had to say the first time around, and its still the same court, or perhaps even a bit more liberal after Biden’s turn at nominating justices. So there is no reason to believe that they will be any more sympathetic this time around.
If not then the question is whether its Trump or DeSantis who is the Republican nominee (see other thread). If its DeSantis then we slip into Democracy lite as described above. its bad news for all progressive ideals for a few election cycles but its recoverable. If Trump wins, then it becomes a battle between him and McConnell for the soul of the Republican party and the nation as a whole. Does Trump have enough sway to push through court picks and cabinet posts base purely on loyalty to him regardless of ability, or will McConnell be able to rein him in by not rubber stamping the next Harriet Miers.