# Maine likely to make electoral history this year **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 25, 2016, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866 "2016-09-25T20:06:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2016, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/1 "2016-09-25T20:06:59Z")
> **[For the first time, it looks like Maine’s electoral votes will be split](https://www.pressherald.com/2016/09/25/maine-voters-appear-poised-to-render-historic-electoral-college-vote-split-in-2016-election/)** > > Trump is leading by double digits in rural regions, while Clinton has the same lock on the more urban south. We have had the option of splitting the state’s electors since the 70s. This year will likely be the first time it actually happens. It’s a forgone conclusion at This point that Hillary will win CD1 in the southern part of the state. Trump will likely take the more conservative North. I have been volunteering for the Clinton campaign, and right now our biggest goal is trying to keep the whole state blue. Of course, northern rural Maine elected Lepage as Governor twice, so it won’t be easy. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2016, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/2 "2016-09-25T20:10:28Z")
> [@boffking](#): > > [For the first time, it looks like Maine’s electoral votes will be split](http://www.pressherald.com/2016/09/25/maine-voters-appear-poised-to-render-historic-electoral-college-vote-split-in-2016-election/) > We have had the option of splitting the state’s electors since the 70s. This year will likely be the first time it actually happens. It’s a forgone conclusion at This point that Hillary will win CD1 in the southern part of the state. Trump will likely take the more conservative North. I have been volunteering for the Clinton campaign, and right now our biggest goal is trying to keep the whole state blue. Of course, northern rural Maine elected Lepage as Governor twice, so it won’t be easy. That could mean that under the right circumstances, if Trump wins NH, Maine’s lone R district could make him president-elect by putting him at 270. I emphasize president elect – I suspect there is also the elevated possibility of a faithless elector. But all that would do is kick it to the House, in which case Trump probably wins there. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2016, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/3 "2016-09-25T20:34:34Z")
Just spread the word up north about how Trump’s proposed massive tax on _pommes au gratin_will come down hard on the spud farmers. It might be a lie, but you got to fight fire with fire. ---
**Author:** ![Desert\_Nomad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desert_nomad/32/177_2.png) [@Desert\_Nomad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desert_Nomad)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/4 "2016-09-26T00:01:20Z")
> [@Ukulele\_Ike](#): > > Just spread the word up north about how Trump’s proposed massive tax on _pommes au gratin_will come down hard on the spud farmers. > > It might be a lie, but you got to fight fire with fire. And the Hilary camp should be used to lies. 😉 Disclaimer: I am not voting for Hilary or Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/5 "2016-09-26T00:21:05Z")
If it happens, it might be electoral history for Maine, but something very similar happened in 2008: Obama won Nebraska’s second congressional district (mostly the city of Omaha), while losing the first and the third and the state as a whole (Nebraska and Maine are currently the only two states whose rules allow for splitting their electoral votes, both according to similar rules). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/6 "2016-09-26T03:00:11Z")
If a state splitting electoral votes elected the next President, you can bet a blue state like Maine would be reconsidering that format as soon as a Democratic governor was elected. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/7 "2016-09-26T11:26:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If a state splitting electoral votes elected the next President, you can bet a blue state like Maine would be reconsidering that format as soon as a Democratic governor was elected. Actually, there was a short-lived proposal to do the same in Michigan (Republican governor and legislature realize that Democrats will always win, want to steal some electors for Republicans) It happened in Nebraska as mentioned, and they were so offended at having a Democratic elector that they considered scrapping the split plan. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/8 "2016-09-26T12:54:48Z")
Maine and Nebraska did what they did because they just didn’t want winner take all. But what Republicans were trying to do was game the system, get some extra votes, in blue states only of course. But likewise, if Maine elected a Republican President, Democrats would be gaming the system to try to correct that “error”. Although the way Maine’s going, Trump might win it outright and Clinton might need that congressional district. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/9 "2016-09-26T13:15:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Although the way Maine’s going, Trump might win it outright and Clinton might need that congressional district. Not a fucking chance that happens. Seriously. Where you yank your analyses from is a half-a-mystery to me. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maine-likely-to-make-electoral-history-this-year/766866/10 "2016-09-26T22:18:08Z")
It’s called numbers: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/me/maine\_trump\_vs\_clinton\_vs\_johnson\_vs\_stein-6091.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/me/maine_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6091.html) Clinton +3.8. And that’s only because of an older poll where she led by nine. The last three times Maine has been polled it’s been Clinton+3, TIE, Clinton+3. Maine is prime territory for a Trump flip given its high percentage of working class white voters.