# Majority atheist world: How far away are we? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 31, 2011, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913 "2011-12-31T03:19:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/121 "2012-01-05T00:57:36Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Because the world will be a better place, right? I think so, truth be told. Of course, what’ll _really_ be making the world a better place is a better respect for and wider application of science and technology, including widespread electronic communications and other ideas that are less-than-fully-accommodating to religion. I have no illusions that religion will go away entirely. I’d just like to see it cease to be a _political_ concept. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/122 "2012-01-05T01:00:33Z")
> [@kenetic](#): > > not having to waste any time or energy opposing zealots trying to force their views on everyone would be better. Good point - it’s hard to bring to mind even a single case of a non-religious person engaging in zealotry or trying to force views on others. ---
**Author:** ![PigArcher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/bcef8e/32.png) [@PigArcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PigArcher)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/123 "2012-01-05T01:01:18Z")
> [@Xema](#): > > Good point - it’s hard to bring to mind even a single case of a non-religious person engaging in zealotry or trying to force views on others. Really? Because I can think of a few. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/124 "2012-01-05T01:17:58Z")
> [@kenetic](#): > > Really? Because I can think of a few. I think **Xema** was being just a tad sarcastic. ---
**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/125 "2012-01-05T01:25:59Z")
> [@rat\_avatar](#): > > I’ll follow on with more cites later but can you come back with ones that are related to the discussion? [http://socrel.oxfordjournals.org/content/72/2/166.abstract](http://socrel.oxfordjournals.org/content/72/2/166.abstract) > [@](#): > > Analyzing data from the 1972–2006 General Social Survey, we found that educational attainment predicted increased attendance at religious services, decreased levels of prayer, increased inclination to view the Bible as a book of fables, and decreased inclination to view the Bible as the literal word of God. These relationships, however, significantly interacted with religious tradition. ---
**Author:** ![PigArcher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/bcef8e/32.png) [@PigArcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PigArcher)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/126 "2012-01-05T01:28:42Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I think **Xema** was being just a tad sarcastic. I know, I prefer to respond in kind. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/127 "2012-01-05T01:41:56Z")
> [@rat\_avatar](#): > > the first study compares the graduation rate of religous and non-religous persons, not the effect of education on religiosity, Recall that what you said, which sparked this discussion, is: “educated people also tend to be less religious”. If religious people are more likely to graduate high school than non-religious people, that’s evidence against your claim that educated people tend to be less religious, is it not? > [@](#): > > The second kind of works for my argument, saying that the advantage of attending church has a “social capitol” value It hypothesizes that such may be the case. However, it is clear in summarizing previous research establishing a positive relationship between religion and education. > [@](#): > > I’ll follow on with more cites later but can you come back with ones that are related to the discussion? How are any of the studies I’ve linked to unrelated to the discussion? You claimed that educated people tend to be less religious. Studies showing that educated people tend to be more religious are obviously relevant. Certainly when there’s a large amount of rigorous research carefully documenting cases where religiosity and education are positively correlated, one can’t simply ignore those cases are go on repeating that “educated people also tend to be less religious”. Perhaps there are some places and times and groups in which educated people tend to be less religious, but the studies I’ve cited certainly document there are some places and times and groups where the reverse is true. ---
**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/128 "2012-01-05T02:14:26Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > Recall that what you said, which sparked this discussion, is: “educated people also tend to be less religious”. If religious people are more likely to graduate high school than non-religious people, that’s evidence against your claim that educated people tend to be less religious, is it not? > It hypothesizes that such may be the case. However, it is clear in summarizing previous research establishing a positive relationship between religion and education. > How are any of the studies I’ve linked to unrelated to the discussion? You claimed that educated people tend to be less religious. Studies showing that educated people tend to be more religious are obviously relevant. Certainly when there’s a large amount of rigorous research carefully documenting cases where religiosity and education are positively correlated, one can’t simply ignore those cases are go on repeating that “educated people also tend to be less religious”. Perhaps there are some places and times and groups in which educated people tend to be less religious, but the studies I’ve cited certainly document there are some places and times and groups where the reverse is true. Read down the page, many people go to church who are not “religious” and the higher education they reach the more likely they are to be attending church for social reasons. Those studies you provided showed that very religious had WORSE graduation rates, it was the main line protestants who did better, and that advantage mostly went away when you corrected for income and family life. Do you call a non-believer church attendant religious? They realize that the cost of the time sitting in church affords them advantages that outweigh the cost of being a out non-believer. So, they drive their kids to soccer and violin classes to round out their kids college application, they socialize with you while believing the god bit is all just a show. As I said, I think that the new generation who uses the internet and other tools to maintain friendships and connect with groups will be the big game changer, they are already 30% less religious than the kids were 20 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![NiceGuyJack](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/niceguyjack/32/3069_2.png) [@NiceGuyJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NiceGuyJack)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/129 "2012-01-05T03:02:06Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > I’d rather live in a nation run by Shintoism than the old Aztec faith. I assume you mean Shintoism as it is today, not the one where you would require to fly an airplane into a battleship as a kamikaze pilot in then name of the living (Shinto) God/Emperor? Shintoism may seem lame today, but that religion did once have a very destructive faze. It is the reason why majority Japanese are atheists today. Believing in a living God/Emperor almost destroyed them. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/130 "2012-01-05T04:45:58Z")
> [@rat\_avatar](#): > > **Do you call a non-believer church attendant religious?** > > . Very interesting question. I don’t consider myself “religious” in any traditional sense, but I have attended (and enjoyed) church services where the sermon resonated with me for one reason or another - whether it was a message to be humble, to appreciate what you have, remember there are always others worse off or whatever - I enjoyed them not so much for “religious” message, but for the more generic message they offered. Does that make me religious? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/131 "2012-01-05T05:08:32Z")
No-it makes you human. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/132 "2012-01-05T14:31:55Z")
> [@rat\_avatar](#): > > Those studies you provided showed that very religious had WORSE graduation rates, What? Look at [this paper](http://www.ugr.es/~teoriahe/RePEc/gra/paoner/per06_04.pdf). It says: Table 4 shows that the probability of high-school graduation is 0.93 for a typical mainline-Protestant respondent (with average characteristics for other variables); the estimates for Mormons (0.91) and Catholics (0.93) are in the same range. In contrast, the probabilities are only 0.86 and 0.84, respectively, for conservative Protestants and the unaffiliated, respectively. … The estimates for white youth show that for the three affiliations considered, members of the high participation group are significantly **more likely** to complete high school than their counterparts in the low participation group, **consistent with the hypothesis that religious involvement has a beneficial effect on high-school graduation**. The gap between the high and low participation groups is 10 percentage points for conservative Protestants, 8 percentage points for Catholics, and 6 percentage points for mainline Protestants. It is noteworthy that a favorable effect of religious participation is observed for conservative Protestants. … In the black sample, patterns of high school graduation by high versus low religious participation can only be studied for the conservative Protestant group, and a similar result is found here: a gap of 7 percentage points. As noted above, the corresponding gap in the white sample is 10 percentage points. (emphasis mine) So the “unaffiliated” have a .84 probability of graduating high school, while _all_ of the religious groups mentioned in the study have a higher probability of graduating high school. Within the three religious groups where the author compared the levels of religiosity (Protestants, Catholics, and conservative Protestants), the more religious were **more likely** to graduate high school, not less. Where are you getting the claim that “the very religious had worse graduation rates”? ---
**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/133 "2012-01-05T14:49:21Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > What? Look at [this paper](http://www.ugr.es/~teoriahe/RePEc/gra/paoner/per06_04.pdf). It says: > > Table 4 shows that the probability of high-school graduation is 0.93 for a typical mainline-Protestant respondent (with average characteristics for other variables); the estimates for Mormons (0.91) and Catholics (0.93) are in the same range. In contrast, the probabilities are only 0.86 and 0.84, respectively, for conservative Protestants and the unaffiliated, respectively. > … > The estimates for white youth show that for the three affiliations considered, members of the high participation group are significantly **more likely** to complete high school than their counterparts in the low participation group, **consistent with the hypothesis that religious involvement has a beneficial effect on high-school graduation**. The gap between the high and low participation groups is 10 percentage points for conservative Protestants, 8 percentage points for Catholics, and 6 percentage points for mainline Protestants. It is noteworthy that a favorable effect of religious participation is observed for conservative Protestants. … In the black sample, patterns of high school graduation by high versus low religious participation can only be studied for the conservative Protestant group, and a similar result is found here: a gap of 7 percentage points. As noted above, the corresponding gap in the white sample is 10 percentage points. > (emphasis mine) > > So the “unaffiliated” have a .84 probability of graduating high school, while _all_ of the religious groups mentioned in the study have a higher probability of graduating high school. Within the three religious groups where the author compared the levels of religiosity (Protestants, Catholics, and conservative Protestants), the more religious were **more likely** to graduate high school, not less. Where are you getting the claim that “the very religious had worse graduation rates”? You are missing the point “participation” or attendance is NOT related to religiosity, it has more to do with the social aspect and social capitol. > [@](#): > > Table 4 shows that the probability of high-school graduation is 0.93 for a typical mainlineProtestant respondent (with average characteristics for other variables); the estimates for Mormons > (0.91) and Catholics (0.93) are in the same range. In contrast, the probabilities are only 0.86 and > 0.84, respectively, for conservative Protestants and the unaffiliated, respectively. ---
**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/134 "2012-01-05T15:00:49Z")
> [@rat\_avatar](#): > > You are missing the point “participation” or attendance is NOT related to religiosity, it has more to do with the social aspect and social capitol. the other part you keep ignoring is that “unaffiliated” does not mean non-christian in this study, it means that they respondents did not identify with a particular church. Also it appears that it shows that formal birth control education is a huge impact on women graduating and that abstinence education has a negative effect 🙂 So like i said, it is irrelevant as to the question of more educated people tending to be less religious. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/135 "2012-01-05T17:20:35Z")
> [@rat\_avatar](#): > > You are missing the point “participation” or attendance is NOT related to religiosity, it has more to do with the social aspect and social capitol. Every formal or scholarly definition of “religiosity” includes religious practice as a component of the definition, and not a small component either. If we informally asked folks for their personal definitions, I’d wager most would agree that whether a person practices a religion is related to how religious they are. You’re free to make up your own definition if you want, but you can scarcely expect me to take it seriously. Words have meanings agreed upon by speakers of the language and codified in dictionaries and other such sources. Furthermore, your claim that educated religious people tend to participate in religion more for social capital while less educated religious people do not participate for that reason is a hypothesis that some researchers have considered, not a proven fact. > [@](#): > > the other part you keep ignoring is that “unaffiliated” does not mean non-christian in this study, it means that they respondents did not identify with a particular church. True. However, the religious groups that are covered in the survey contain the overwhelming majority of religious Americans. Hence we can safely assume that the “unaffiliated” group is largely those who are not religious. ---
**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/136 "2012-01-05T20:06:51Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > Every formal or scholarly definition of “religiosity” includes religious practice as a component of the definition, and not a small component either. If we informally asked folks for their personal definitions, I’d wager most would agree that whether a person practices a religion is related to how religious they are. You’re free to make up your own definition if you want, but you can scarcely expect me to take it seriously. Words have meanings agreed upon by speakers of the language and codified in dictionaries and other such sources. > > Furthermore, your claim that educated religious people tend to participate in religion more for social capital while less educated religious people do not participate for that reason is a hypothesis that some researchers have considered, not a proven fact. > > True. However, the religious groups that are covered in the survey contain the overwhelming majority of religious Americans. Hence we can safely assume that the “unaffiliated” group is largely those who are not religious. No I provided cites that showed that higher education attainment was correlated with lessened and or moderated religious belief. Where as participation is a factor in the concept of religiosity it is only one factor, the lay belief in what it means is irrelevant. Your study has many many issues, did you notice that they straight out removed any Jewish members, a group that tends to have very high graduation rates and also highly rates of self reported secularism. There is also a follow on study with the title of “Religion, Religiosity and Educational Attainment of Immigrants to the USA by Sankar Mukhopadhyay” This used a much better group of people, lawful immigrants with much broader group of religions and they actually attempted to measure religiosity vs just lumping people in based on affiliation. > [@](#): > > With regard to religiosity our results show that high religiosity is associated > with lower educational attainment, especially in females. Although they are quite clear that they can not form a causal relationship, and they also find that low-religiosity groups do better, for the same reasons my claims made above. > [@](#): > > We find that MRR to education is higher for the low-religiosity group. This > finding is consistent with the prediction of theoretical human capital models that establish > causal relation between religiosity and educational attainment. While this result, along > with the rich set of variables that we use as controls, suggests that religiosity may affect > educational attainment, we cannot conclusively claim a causal relationship. The fact that the type of parent who will dedicate time and resources to ensure their kids and themselves have every advantage possible will attend church due to the social capital advantages that are gained through that community. Just as they are not necessarily Soccer fans, despite taking their kids to Soccer they may not be super religious, in fact one study in Canada recently reported that an entire quintile of church attendees did not believe in a personal god. This is all a red herring though, OMG claimed that the religious were out breeding the move to the secular world, an assertion that does not match the current data that the country and is become increasingly secular. A point that you have failed to address. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/137 "2012-01-05T20:24:07Z")
Well, I’ll settle for a majority agnostic world, if I must. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913/138 "2012-01-11T01:32:29Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > Recall that what you said, which sparked this discussion, is: “educated people also tend to be less religious”. If religious people are more likely to graduate high school than non-religious people, that’s evidence against your claim that educated people tend to be less religious, is it not? Well, maybe. It probably depends on what you mean by “educated”. You are taking it to mean “attaining a basic level of education”. It’s often used to mean “attaining a high level of education”. Neither is objectively correct, but you might be talking past each other. If I say “educated people are less religious” and I mean “people with graduate degrees are less religious than people without”, then the correlation between religion and high school graduation isn’t really evidence either way. Higher education is inversely correlated with almost all measures of religiosity (except church attendance, apparently) [cite](http://rsc.byu.edu/archived/latter-day-saint-social-life-social-research-lds-church-and-its-members/9-secularization-hi). If high school education is positively correlated with it, then something more complicated than a simple correlation must be taking place. Here’s one possible explanation: Children who grow up in households that attend church are more likely to have supportive social structures that keep them from, say, dropping out of high school. Beyond that, people who attain higher education are more likely to have studied science and logic which contradicts many common religious teachings, leading them to reject religion. I don’t have data that explicitly supports this, but it is consistent with the data that we have. One prediction you could make from this is that richer countries with more highly educated people trend toward less religiosity. That could be further extended to predict that as humanity as a whole becomes wealthier and devotes more resources to higher education, religion will recede and maybe eventually become a minority position. This is what I think is happening and will happen, but there are obviously a lot of unknowns. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-atheist-world-how-far-away-are-we/607913.md?page=6)