# Majority of vehicles on road being EVs **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [January 9, 2023, 8:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910 "2023-01-09T08:12:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 8:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/1 "2023-01-09T08:12:08Z")
Anyone have a good estimate of when the majority of vehicles on the road will be EVs? I’m mostly interested in the US, but estimates for other countries are welcome. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/2 "2023-01-09T13:42:10Z")
Any estimate is going to be complicated by political factors, because a lot of the transition to EVs is pushed by various laws and regulations, and those could be changed, or their implementation postponed, as partisan control of the government changes. ---
**Author:** ![Schnitte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/schnitte/32/9033_2.png) [@Schnitte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Schnitte)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/3 "2023-01-09T13:55:08Z")
And such regulatory changes will definitely come in those jurisdictions where fuel taxes are a major component of government revenue - in many European countries, taxes make up way more than half of what you pay for fuel. Right now, this regime makes EVs cheaper relative to ICEs, but that will change once the percentage of EVs among cars on the road reaches a point where the lack of fuel tax revenue will be felt by the government budget. I wouldn’t be surprised if the response will be to tax charging stations to make up for the shortfall, and then the whole dynamic will change. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/4 "2023-01-09T13:58:59Z")
Decades, IME, as there is nearly one car registered in the US for every American. It will probably take that long just to produce half that many EVs, aside from getting people to transition. It will happen, but it wont be soon. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/5 "2023-01-09T14:24:41Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Anyone have a good estimate of when the majority of vehicles on the road will be EVs? Lets look at the top 3 Oil Companies of the US and their commitments / statements/ goals for carbon emissions : 1. Exxon-Mobil has an ambition to get to Zero carbon emissions by **2050**. [ExxonMobil announces ambition for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 | ExxonMobil](https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/2022/0118_ExxonMobil-announces-ambition-for-net-zero-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-2050) 2. Chevron Pledges Net-Zero Operational Emissions By **2050** [Empowering People in Oil and Gas | Rigzone](https://www.rigzone.com/news/chevron_pledges_netzero_operational_emissions_by_2050-11-oct-2021-166680-article/) 3. Conoco-Phillips : As the first U.S.-based oil and gas company to adopt a Paris-aligned framework and set an ambition to achieve net-zero operational emissions by **2050** … [Low Carbon Technologies | ConocoPhillips](https://www.conocophillips.com/sustainability/low-carbon-technologies/) This is IMHO territory : I work with some of the leadership from these companies and there is skepticism on those commitments. But given the level of investment in Lithium exploration, Solar improvement, Offshore wind, I would guess we may have a majority of EVs around 2050. (I hope I am right but based on my experience in the Oil industry, I’m probably wrong) Nitpick : Hydrogen powered cars, like the Mirai [2023 Toyota Mirai | Toyota.com](https://www.toyota.com/mirai/2023/) are EVs too. They just rely on a Hydrogen fuel cell to generate their electricity instead of a battery. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/6 "2023-01-09T14:29:28Z")
One datapoint; the average age of cars in the US last year was a little over twelve years, and that’s an increase. I remember when it was only eleven years. I’ve heard the suggestion that only zero-emissions vehicles (and that includes things other than EVs) be sold starting in 2035. So if someone had an ICE car they purchased in 2034, it might reasonably still be running a decade or two later. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/7 "2023-01-09T14:53:29Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > …the average age of cars in the US last year was a little over twelve years,… Adding to this discussion that used car exports has come into increased scrutiny by the United Nations. Moving a polluting used car from one part of the planet to another part of the planet today is almost not regulated, but it is coming under scrutiny everyday and all countries are beefing up their environmental laws. Here is the UN report : [https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34175/UVE.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34175/UVE.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y) If older car export from the US or European countries come under Economic pressure, then people would probably drive them longer or car repair may become more popular. Maybe an economist can predict the effect better than I can. ---
**Author:** ![Schnitte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/schnitte/32/9033_2.png) [@Schnitte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Schnitte)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/8 "2023-01-09T15:00:58Z")
It might turn into a story similar to leaded gasoline. Its phase-out began in the 1970s, but it took more than two decades until it was completely off the market. In the meantime, cars that required leaded gas were considered outdated but still on the road, with their percentage steadily declining (and even afterwards, owners of such cars kept searching for surrogates, such as lead replacement additives). ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/9 "2023-01-09T15:20:55Z")
EV ownership is rapidly expanding in the UK. Nearly a quarter of all cars sold in 2022 were electric, and it is estimated that by 2030, when new ICE cars will no longer be available, more than a third of all the cars on the road will be EVs. The goods vehicle market is very different. Heavy trucks and smaller vans that do long distances are likely to be diesel-powered for a decade or two, although hydrogen looks promising. Fleet operators using small vans, especially those that work in cities will probably switch to electric as their ICE vans are replaced. Many cities have followed London’s lead and started penalising older, more polluting vehicles. No doubt the definition of older/more polluting will be tightened up progressively. I live in a medium-sized country town and I see that my local supermarket (one of three large ones) has increased their EV charge points from one a year ago to six now. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/10 "2023-01-09T15:25:53Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > One datapoint; the average age of cars in the US last year was a little over twelve years, and that’s an increase. I remember when it was only eleven years. I’ve heard the suggestion that only zero-emissions vehicles (and that includes things other than EVs) be sold starting in 2035. So if someone had an ICE car they purchased in 2034, it might reasonably still be running a decade or two later. Yes, this is important. The year that the majority of vehicle on the road are EV’s is going to be much later than the year the majority of vehicles _sold_ are EV’s ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/11 "2023-01-09T15:38:27Z")
> [@Schnitte](#): > > In the meantime, cars that required leaded gas were considered outdated but still on the road, with their percentage steadily declining Not sure if this is a good analogy. If I recall correctly, the vast majority of cars ran just fine on unleaded and it was just high-compression, high-performance engines that “required” leaded gas - and that just to get best performance, I thought they ran fine on unleaded with the timing tweaked a bit (but at reduced performance). There are a ton of leaded-era cars still on the road here in AZ… ---
**Author:** ![Schnitte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/schnitte/32/9033_2.png) [@Schnitte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Schnitte)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/12 "2023-01-09T15:42:04Z")
I see your point, and that it weakens the strength of the analogy. My thinking came from the lead-free replacement additives that I have seen on sale for customers who have a leaded-era car but can’t buy leaded gas anymore. I thought that with a an increasing percentage of EVs, the number of gas stations with fuel pumps will decline, and owners of ICE cars will have to find workarounds to keep their cars going. But I have no idea how necessary those additives really are for a car from the leaded era. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/13 "2023-01-09T17:19:57Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Yes, this is important. The year that the majority of vehicle on the road are EV’s is going to be much later than the year the majority of vehicles _sold_ are EV’s Indeed, there’s one market (Norway) where the majority of new cars have been EVs for several years now, with EVs being about 90% of the market in the last year or two. They still don’t have the majority of cars on the road being EVs. ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/14 "2023-01-09T17:57:11Z")
Do you class EVs to include plug in hybrids? are you looking just at cars or all vwhicles? For GB the electricity Network operator produces the “future energy scenarios” which has 4 potential scenarios for electricty demand and supply out to 2050. It is probably the most detailed forecast of electrification of transport for GB. The scewnarios have electric cars being in the marjority between 2031 and 2036 depending which scenario you use. For the numbers by vehcile type in each scenario see sheet ED5 of the data workbook,. [National Grid Future Energy Scenarios](https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios#fullsuite) ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2023, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/15 "2023-01-09T18:25:37Z")
> [@Jegpeg](#): > > Do you class EVs to include plug in hybrids? are you looking just at cars or all vwhicles? Personally, I would only look at BEVs and not PHEVs, but various people who compile statistics sometimes combine them, so I’ll take whatever info is out there. I’m looking at all vehicles, since one of the reasons I’m asking is that I have to breath all the exhaust while on my bicycle. I’m wondering when I won’t have to do that anymore. When I’m out cycling, I count all the EVs I see. On a typical ride in the city, I will see 30 or 40 EVs on a 2-hour ride. Which is encouraging, since when I started doing this about 4 years ago, I would usually see only half a dozen or so. But I still see lots more non-EVs for every EV, so we have a long way to go. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/16 "2023-01-10T04:53:47Z")
> [@Schnitte](#): > > I thought that with a an increasing percentage of EVs, the number of gas stations with fuel pumps will decline, and owners of ICE cars will have to find workarounds to keep their cars going. Not as fast. There will still be a lot of motorcycles, lawnmowers, weed whips, snowblowers, snowmobiles, etc. that all need gasoline. So that market will continue for quite a while. And most trucks will still need diesel fuel. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/17 "2023-01-10T05:20:14Z")
> [@bob\_2](#): > > EV ownership is rapidly expanding in the UK. Nearly a quarter of all cars sold in 2022 were electric The equivalent number in in Australia is 3.39%. The headline was “[65% increase in EV sales](https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2022/10/18/australian-ev-market-share-grows-65-in-2022/#:~:text=The%20demand%20for%20electric%20vehicles,Electric%20Vehicle%20Council's%20latest%20report.)” but that’s off a very low base. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/18 "2023-01-10T06:04:43Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > There are a ton of leaded-era cars still on the road here in AZ… No ice on the roads, at least where the people live, would be a big factor in that phenomenon. Salt eats vehicles alive. ---
**Author:** ![Banksiaman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banksiaman/32/3334_2.png) [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/19 "2023-01-10T06:55:42Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > Adding to this discussion that used car exports has come into increased scrutiny by the United Nations. Moving a polluting used car from one part of the planet to another part of the planet today is almost not regulated, but it is coming under scrutiny everyday and all countries are beefing up their environmental laws. I’m told that Australia and Russia are the two main vehicle markets without emission standards, and Australia has flagged that this will change soon [another issue a decade of troglodytic Liberal govt hoped to ignore forever]. I think most people hold on to their cars well past that sweet spot where retained trade-in value is high and the replacement cost losses are tolerable. A car per decade or even two is not uncommon and we could expect many personal cars to be run until they are too expensive to fix. However, managed vehicle fleet replacement cycles run to something like 3-4 years to maximise the trade-in value and reduce the outlay for a new car, along with increased reliability and reduced servicing. I can see all those fleet managers starting to agonise whether their next replacements should be electric now even with fewer charging stations, or they will skip one with a probable really steep drop in any resale value, as well asrisk of non-compliance with more stringent standards. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/20 "2023-01-10T15:45:56Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > > [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > > > There are a ton of leaded-era cars still on the road here in AZ… > > No ice on the roads, at least where the people live, would be a big factor in that phenomenon. Salt eats vehicles alive. Agreed. Plus a lot of retirees buying the cars of their youth. My point was really that the leaded=\>unleaded gas switchover was not nearly as much of a change as the gas=\>electric is. Plenty of cars designed for leaded gas have been running fine on unleaded for decades. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910.md?page=2)