# Majority of vehicles on road being EVs

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910>\
**Category:** Factual Questions\
**Created:** [January 9, 2023, 8:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910 "2023-01-09T08:12:08Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 8\
**Page:** 6

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [December 9, 2023, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/101 "2023-12-09T23:55:01Z")

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Isn’t lithium one of those minerals that’s found all over the place, and so where it’s mined ends up being governed by where the labor is cheapest?

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [December 9, 2023, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/102 "2023-12-09T23:55:53Z")

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> [@dtilque](#):
>
> I suppose that’s good news, but they’ve known for quite some time that the Salton Sea has lots of lithium.

My understanding is that they knew there was lithium there before, but that they didn’t realize what a huge amount it was.

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [December 10, 2023, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/103 "2023-12-10T00:02:23Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Isn’t lithium one of those minerals that’s found all over the place, and so where it’s mined ends up being governed by where the labor is cheapest?

Lithium is pretty prevalent, but as best I can tell it’s mostly mined in areas where it can be easily scraped off the surface from dry(ish) lake beds. The Salton Sea deposit requires pumping water underground to extract the brines, and then extracting the minerals from that.

It’s undoubtedly a higher capital expenditure than the simpler methods. Whether the costs are higher depends on the details. But I doubt that labor costs are a huge factor; it’s more of whether the required industrial equipment can pay for itself over time.

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**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\
**Post date:** [December 10, 2023, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/104 "2023-12-10T00:29:22Z")

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> [@PastTense](#):
>
> My understanding is that they knew there was lithium there before, but that they didn’t realize what a huge amount it was.

But it doesn’t change anything in the short term, where the short term is probably a decade or more. They’re still not extracting the lithium yet.

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [December 10, 2023, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/105 "2023-12-10T03:40:51Z")

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On the other hand:

**Lithium “Shortage” Bubble Implodes (Again), Price Collapsed 77% in a Year, as Demand and Production Both Surged**

[https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/23/lithium-shortage-bubble-implodes-once-again-as-demand-and-production-both-surged/](https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/23/lithium-shortage-bubble-implodes-once-again-as-demand-and-production-both-surged/)

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**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\
**Post date:** [December 11, 2023, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/106 "2023-12-11T19:10:21Z")

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Lithium prices are down in part because we overestimated demand for EVs and built too many batteies, creating a glut. Proposed battery factory plans are being scaled back.

As EV mandates and renewable energy buildouts look more likely to be pushed back or abandoned, the future demand for lithium is perceived to be lower than forecast.

> **[A worldwide lithium shortage could come as soon as 2025](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/29/a-worldwide-lithium-shortage-could-come-as-soon-as-2025.html)**
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> A worldwide shortage for lithium could be on its way as demand for the metal ramps up, with some analysts forecasting that it could come as soon as 2025.

> [@](#):
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> In Q2, lithium prices reached their floor **following poor downstream demand from the EV and industrial sectors** , Adam Megginson of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence told INN.
> 
> Additionally, ample cathode inventories meant buyers were able to negotiate lower prices or hold off purchasing altogether.

Bolding mine

> **[Lithium Market Update: Q2 2023 in Review](https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/lithium-investing/lithium-forecast/)**
>
> Lithium prices have been on the rebound since May after falling from November to April. Demand for the battery metal is expected to soar in coming decades, with questions about supply still to be answered. How did lithium perform in the second...

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [July 29, 2024, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/107 "2024-07-29T05:18:32Z")

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Ford is losing massive amounts of money on EVs: expecting to lose $5 billion to $5.5 billion this year on them:

**Ford saw a $1.1 billion loss in its EV business, dragging Q2 profit well below Wall Street forecast**

[https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ford-saw-a-11-billion-loss-in-its-ev-business-dragging-q2-profit-well-below-wall-street-forecast/ar-BB1qzrGo](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ford-saw-a-11-billion-loss-in-its-ev-business-dragging-q2-profit-well-below-wall-street-forecast/ar-BB1qzrGo)

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [July 29, 2024, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/majority-of-vehicles-on-road-being-evs/977910/108 "2024-07-29T06:13:03Z")

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Amazing that Tesla is still the only profitable EV maker, except _possibly_ some of the Chinese companies. I don’t understand why everyone else is so bad at manufacturing.

I do think that Ford might _look_ worse than they are. Ford splits their earnings into three divisions: Ford Blue, Model e, and Pro. They can probably shift expenses around to some extent since they’re shared. If the Model e division is going to be unprofitable anyway, why not make the other two divisions look better in comparison by shifting expenses to the bad one? It’s a disaster no matter what. But at least investors can say that the F-150s are still doing fine.

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