# Make some predictions on the Democratic race **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 16, 2019, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846 "2019-01-16T03:14:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/21 "2019-01-16T15:51:11Z")
I’m talking about conditions in the country. Economic growth is good, although the shutdown risks sending us into recession if it goes on too long, and he’s probably the most anti-war President functionally in the post-WWII era. Good economy+ no new wars= reelection in almost all cases, and deservedly so. Now Trump is a special case and doesn’t deserve reelection no matter how good things in the country are, but that assumes a Democratic opponent who doesn’t want to upset the apple cart. I just don’t think " everything is great so I want to change everything" is either smart policy or smart poiltics. That’s why I’m genuinely a Biden fan, he’s smart enough to know when it’s time for change and when it’s not, and now is not the time for radical policy change. It is a time for radical POLITICS change though. We need more honesty, more authenticity. Biden has both. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Duality](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.duality/32/4098_2.png) [@Mr.Duality](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Duality)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/22 "2019-01-16T15:54:40Z")
Predicting the **2024** race: Ocasio-Cortez will run for President and win. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/23 "2019-01-16T15:56:50Z")
I just don’t see the appeal of Biden unless people want somebody who spent almost their whole adult life in DC. He’s yesterday’s news. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/24 "2019-01-16T15:59:11Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > I just don’t see the appeal of Biden unless people want somebody who spent almost their whole adult life in DC. He’s yesterday’s news. That would normally be a handicap, except a) Biden hasn’t made a dime off his office, and b) he’s always been a straight talker and those types don’t tend to be lumped in with the “bad” career politicians. Typical of me to hijack my own thread, BTW. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/25 "2019-01-16T16:12:23Z")
the last time the Dems nominated a guy who won and who was in DC for a long time was LBJ and of course he was the incumbent. Everybody else for a long time who won was not a DC insider - Carter, Clinton, Obama. For now I would think Harris wins the nomination . ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/26 "2019-01-16T16:16:58Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > the last time the Dems nominated a guy who won and who was in DC for a long time was LBJ and of course he was the incumbent. Everybody else for a long time who won was not a DC insider - Carter, Clinton, Obama. > > For now I would think Harris wins the nomination . That’s a really good point, but I’d note that except for Obama and Kennedy, even new Senators don’t tend to do well. And Obama and Kennedy had remarkable charisma. Harris, whlie not awful, is fairly normal as charisma goes. No Dukakis/Kerry, but no Reagan/Obama either. But the nature of this race is that the only governor likely to run is Inslee, so the rules aren’t the same as usual this time around. And Biden has a lot of that McCain magic around him, which is why McCain is the only Senator to ever be nominated by the GOP since we’ve all been alive(I think, correct me if I’m wrong) ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/27 "2019-01-16T16:29:38Z")
1. Biden - Democrats are too predictable every time. I forecast an Obama 2008 win in 2004 after he was being fawned over at the convention. Of course I have no proof of this, sorry. I don’t know what to say about this, it just seems obvious every time to me on a gut level. Biden will sweep the non-ideologicals and it won’t be close. Too many self-absorbed Bernie variation candidates (Black Bernies, Young Bernies, Female Bernies, Old Brooklyn Bernies) will weaken all candidates going for the ideological vote while the teeming ideological masses will keep funding their vanity campaigns. There will be a lot of mad Democrats at the convention though, which could be a bad sign for what should be an easy general win. 2. Dulaney will do better than expected, which is not saying much. Watch him pull a Santorum if the Dems are not satisfied with other offerings. 3. If Booker hops in he’ll be outed as a lightweight and flop. I could see Warren flop if Bernie hops in. 4. I doubt Booker runs, too plastic for focus groups this time around. 5. I’d like to wait and see the nuts and bolts of these folks’ foreign policies, but fully expect not to hear anything about it. I’m in Bmore, so I cast a meaningless Libertarian vote usually, but I’m willing to make a meaningless Dem vote if the candidate is a decent human being. I won’t cast a meaningless vote for Trump in any case, though I do appreciate the boldness of your take on Trump so far. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/28 "2019-01-16T16:32:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Biden’s got two things going for him that most politicians with baggage don’t have: > > 1. Almost all his baggage is ancient. Really ancient. The flip side is, his accomplishments are equally ancient. (Sorry, but few are going to say that Biden was really the architect of all of Obama’s accomplishments.) So yes, people are going to scrutinize his pre-VP record. One part of that record that, IMHO, will sink him all by itself, is his major role in getting the 2005 bankruptcy law through Congress. It changed bankruptcy law in abominable ways, and this was actually the issue that first brought Warren into the limelight. If Biden runs, he’ll run right into her buzzsaw. It will **ruin** his reputation. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/29 "2019-01-16T16:35:34Z")
Biden represented Delaware. Now while that can get extremely awkward for all Congressional candidates, honesty works best. I’m pretty sure Biden will either defend the merits of the vote, which I think he can(I supported that bill), or say, “I represented my state, and so did everyone else here on this stage. We all have parochial votes we have to explain.” What will sink him, and will sink anyone in this cycle, is a politician response. “I’ve evolved!” Bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/30 "2019-01-16T16:49:18Z")
I’m guessing Beto O’Rourke will be one of those who start badly, and then go downhill from there. > [@](#): > > Asked whether the U.S. is capable of change, O’Rourke was again equivocal: “I’m hesitant to answer it,” he said, "because I really feel like it deserves its due, and I don’t want to give you a — actually, just selfishly, I don’t want a sound bite of it reported, but, yeah, I think that’s the question of the moment: Does this still work? Can an empire like ours with military presence in over 170 countries around the globe, with trading relationships . . . and security agreements in every continent, can it still be managed by the same principles that were set down 230-plus years ago?” [Cite](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/beto-orourke-mocked-after-offering-few-answers-in-wide-ranging-policy-interview). It would be interesting to find out which of the principles in the Constitution he feels no longer might apply. Perhaps “interesting” is not quite the right term. Also, he does not seem to keep up with the news very well - > [@](#): > > Asked about the planned Syria pullout, he responded that there should be "a debate, a discussion, a national conversation about why we’re there, why we fight, why we sacrifice the lives of American service members, why we’re willing to take the lives of others. … There may be a very good reason to do it. I don’t necessarily understand — and I’ve been a member of Congress for six years. … We haven’t had a meaningful discussion about these wars since 2003.” There has been no meaningful discussion about the United States’ military involvements for the last sixteen years? I’m not a member of Congress, but I seem to remember the topic coming up more than once or twice. Mr. O’Rourke is allegedly off on a solo road trip. I hope his feelings aren’t hurt if that trip becomes progressively more and more solo as it goes on. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/31 "2019-01-16T16:53:23Z")
Bankruptcy law sounds too obscure to put a dent in Biden’s non-ideological vote. He was anointed by Saint Obama after this so he must not be all too bad. “Mr. Biden, your support of this 2005 bankruptcy law shows you are beholden to corporate interests.” “My time with President Obama taught me many things, first…yadda yadda yadda” Crony corporatism forgotten. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/32 "2019-01-16T16:55:46Z")
1: At this point, if I have to pick one, I’d bet on Sherrod Brown. Establishment candidates usually do better than non-establishment (that’s what makes them the Establishment, after all), and as of right now, he’s the only establishment candidate who’s running. Biden would probably beat him if he runs, but right this moment, I think there’s enough uncertainty as to whether Biden runs that I think it still edges to Brown. Previously I thought Hickenlooper, but his name recognition appears to be going nowhere, while Brown’s seems to be rising. 2: I think Kamala Harris will most exceed expectations. I think that both her expectations will be depressed and that her outcomes will be improved by the fact that she’s a minority woman, and by the fact that she’s towards the left end of the field. 3: For entering the race but then quitting early, I’d probably say O’Rourke. He put in a good showing in Texas, but still didn’t win, and the press he’s getting is all out of proportion to what he’s actually got. Maybe four or eight years from now, but I don’t think he’s ready yet. 4: The only two big names I can see deciding not to run are Sanders and Biden. Sanders I think is less likely to run, largely because Warren already is, and I think he’d be nearly as happy with her in the Oval Office as himself. But Biden, I think, has to be considered the bigger name, so I’ll go with him as “the biggest name who doesn’t run”. 5: There might be some crazy, fifth-tier candidates who I wouldn’t vote for, but I won’t expend enough brain cells on them to pick out a specific name, because they’re crazy, fifth-tier candidates, and the chance of any of them winning the nomination is so low that I’ll wait to deal with that question until the unlikely event that it comes up. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/33 "2019-01-16T18:30:50Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not insignificant, but is there malice or sexual intent behind it or is he just one of those guys who likes to be in people’s personal space a lot? Seems to me he’s just as touchy with men. And isn’t the whole point of equality to treat everyone the same? > > Looking at pictures that people say are a problem, I’m just not seeing this rise above misdemeanor level. Kissing her on the head? Putting his hands on her hips? hands on shoulders of various people? We will soon find out how significant it all is if Biden runs. I think I know how it will play out in Democratic primary circles(you can guarantee at least one Dem opponent will covertly push it) but I suppose stranger things have happened than Biden being able to overcome this stuff. ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/34 "2019-01-16T18:56:49Z")
A crowded field of interesting young men and women with potential for change. A very interesting primary season. Of course the established party will have nothing to do with change or youth. The fight to retain or replace Pelosi was just a preview. The party went with the old people in power. They drop out one by one because none can garner the full support of the party. And then you end up with the old white guy that the entrenched party approves, Joe Biden. He runs on the past playbook, sort of like Hillary, and loses to Trump. Biden will not out-Trump Trump. Political gaffs don’t matter anymore, and Biden is full of them, but he can’t keep up with Trump. Sorry, but that is they way I see it playing out. The resistance to replacing Pelosi just shows that even though a grass roots desire for change in the party is very real, it just can’t be done yet. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/35 "2019-01-16T20:45:51Z")
The resistance to replacing Pelosi isn’t because she’s been in the job for a long time. Both the resistance to replacing her and her being in the job for a long time are because she’s very good at it. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2019, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/36 "2019-01-17T01:30:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well I’m a right wing guy in the Never Trump category, but my calculations change with him as an incumbent, assuming the next two years isn’t disastrous for the country. For all his awfulness, things are going pretty well, and if that continues I can afford to just vote to reelect if I fear the consequences of a very ambitious Democrat looking to change pretty much everything. Oh, I forgot to say this after the OP! Thanks for reminding me! Are you using some time-travel device to post from sometime before AD 2019? Because no. Trump has shut down the federal government and is threatening to leave it there. The damage is working up to “cause a depression” bad. The government _isn’t paying the Coast Guard._ If you think Kirsten Gillibrand, for crying out loud, is more radical or more dangerous than Trump, you aren’t keeping up with events. That’s like saying you can’t trust Warren “return to normalcy” Harding not to be a dangerous radical, so you’ll stick with…Mikhail Bakunin. :eek: Edit: If that’s too historical and obscure for anyone, think of it like passing on Dwight Eisenhower in favor of, I don’t know, Thanos. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2019, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/37 "2019-01-17T01:38:39Z")
The appeal of Biden is that he has name recognition, and because he is a white male he doesn’t alienate a lot of swing voters who aren’t comfortable voting for a non-white or female candidate (like it or not). Plus he has some credibility with high school educated whites. But he has his negatives. The bankruptcy law, Iraq war, Anita Hill. However I don’t know how well he would govern. It really doesn’t matter I guess, the legislature is where actual laws are written. The president just signs the law. Would America really be any different if Bernie won in 2020 instead of Biden? It seems like the end results would pretty much be the same no matter which one won. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2019, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/38 "2019-01-17T01:43:01Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > the last time the Dems nominated a guy who won and who was in DC for a long time was LBJ and of course he was the incumbent. Everybody else for a long time who won was not a DC insider - Carter, Clinton, Obama. > > For now I would think Harris wins the nomination . And LBJ was far and away the most productive president in the last 60 years. Of course he also had a huge majority in congress. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2019, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/39 "2019-01-17T10:45:11Z")
If I were American: 1 - Castro. Dynamic, charismatic. Biden is the Buggins’ Turn candidate. That system worked badly for the Republicans. 2 - No idea. 3 - Warren, Harris. Placed in the light of publicity they will wither. 4 - Biden, Sanders, O’Rourke. 5 - No idea. Wild card: Cortez. If she storms out of the gate in Washington she might just catch a wave. The hype train worked for Trump; it might work for her. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2019, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846/40 "2019-01-17T11:23:43Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Wild card: Cortez. If she storms out of the gate in Washington she might just catch a wave. The hype train worked for Trump; it might work for her. She literally can’t. There are very few actual criteria for becoming president but one is that you have to be at least 35. AOC is only 29 now. She could in theory squeak in for 2024 (she would turn 35 in October 2024) but 2020 is out of the question. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-some-predictions-on-the-democratic-race/827846.md?page=3)