# Make the case that ObL's death increases Obama's re-election chances **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 2, 2011, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512 "2011-05-02T20:57:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/21 "2011-05-02T21:32:12Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > I don’t think we can say that with any particular certainty. In 2000, George Bush was very emphatic about not being interested in nation building, and look how that panned out. Just because McCain was saying that during the campaign, it doesn’t mean he wouldn’t have acted if this opportunity had come up during his presidency. Fair enough, let me amend: “There is no question about this - if McCain were president and kept his word, Bin Laden would still be alive”. ---
**Author:** ![G-SE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f0a364/32.png) [@G-SE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/G-SE)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/22 "2011-05-02T21:33:21Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > But I think any rational observer would agree that Obama’s reelection chances are significantly higher today than they were on Saturday. Do you disagree? Or were you just ranting? I do agree, if the elections were held today. But they’re not. My point was, to put it more clearly, he’ll get an approval bounce but I don’t think it will last long enough to help him in the election. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/23 "2011-05-02T21:35:51Z")
One can certainly debate _how much_ this will help him: 18 months is a long time, after all, and a lot can and will change before then. But it’ll certainly help at least a little. Yeah, there probably aren’t that many voters who will be swayed from R to D over this, but there would be even fewer who’d be swayed the other way. Actually, you’d probably need twice as many people opposed as in favor for this to hurt Obama, since most of the people opposed (vehement pacifists, say) would probably go to a third party, rather than the Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/24 "2011-05-02T21:38:05Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > There is no question about this - if McCain were president Bin Laden would still be alive. This can’t be repeated often enough. **If McCain were president, Bin Laden would still be alive.** People’s memories are short, but this was actually a debating point between the two candidates back in 2008. Obama emphasized how he would make catching bin Laden a top priority if he was elected. McCain said that going after bin Laden should take a back seat to other diplomatic goals. McCain held up Obama’s willingness to go after bin Laden in Pakistan as an example of Obama’s naivete and foreign policy inexperience. Of course this will help Obama in 2012. This undercuts several different lines of attack from the right wing: [ul] [li]Obama is a stealth Muslim.[/li][li]Obama like to pal around with terrorists.[/li][li]Obama is weak and indecisive.[/li][/ul]After yesterday, none of these talking points are useful anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/25 "2011-05-02T21:40:40Z")
Put it this way: I sure as shit don’t see how it’s going to _hurt_. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/26 "2011-05-02T21:43:59Z")
> [@G-SE](#): > > I do agree, if the elections were held today. But they’re not. My point was, to put it more clearly, he’ll get an approval bounce but I don’t think it will last long enough to help him in the election. That’s a much more reasonable response than talking about “Democratic mutual masturbation” and “pooping skittles”. I’d say that while the effect will obviously be less than whatever his approval bounces to in the next week, it will be measurable - both perspectives are well within the realm of possibility. Do you also perhaps acknowledge that Obama wasn’t merely “the lucky guy” but actually re-prioritized CIA objectives, in a manner different from what the GOP nominee in 2008 promised to do? And that at least in this regard, he perhaps deserves some credit? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/27 "2011-05-02T21:45:16Z")
> [@Bosstone](#): > > Put it this way: I sure as shit don’t see how it’s going to _hurt_. I can think of two: Pakistan’s military crumbles due to outrage over the sovereignty issue leading to an Islamist state with nukes, or an Al Qaeda cell manages a retributive attack on a US interest (not sure what effect this would have, to be honest). ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/28 "2011-05-02T21:49:21Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > I can think of two: Pakistan’s military crumbles due to outrage over the sovereignty issue leading to an Islamist state with nukes, or an Al Qaeda cell manages a retributive attack on a US interest (not sure what effect this would have, to be honest). I have my doubts about how strongly the first would affect the general public, and the second could easily be spun as, “Obama’s the one who took down bin Laden! Re-elect him so he has a chance to go after this new group!” ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/29 "2011-05-02T21:56:07Z")
If nothing else, it has given Obama a weapon with which to publicly humiliate one of his opponents. If Trump steps out of line, I can guarantee his “I have accomplished something nobody else has accomplished” line is going to be thrown back in his face. > [@Jas09](#): > > Are you serious? Do you not recall that when asked about this exact situation in 2008 McCain explicitly said he would **not** authorize a raid into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden. There is no question about this - if McCain were president Bin Laden would still be alive. You are taking his statement out of context. The reason he said he would not authorize a raid into Pakistan was [“because Pakistan is a sovereign nation.”](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/02/972229/-John-McCain-said-he-wouldnt-go-after-Bin-Laden-in-Pakistan) In case it isn’t bloody obvious, having Pakistan’s cooperation and consent means that obstacle no longer existed. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/30 "2011-05-02T22:07:06Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > You are taking his statement out of context. The reason he said he would not authorize a raid into Pakistan was [“because Pakistan is a sovereign nation.”](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/02/972229/-John-McCain-said-he-wouldnt-go-after-Bin-Laden-in-Pakistan) > > In case it isn’t bloody obvious, having Pakistan’s cooperation and consent means that obstacle no longer existed. I guess that’s one way to read it. The original source is here: [CNN.com - Transcripts](http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0807/28/lkl.01.html) > [@](#): > > KING: If you were president and knew that bin Laden was in Pakistan, you know where, would you have U.S. forces go in after him? > > MCCAIN: Larry, I’m not going to go there and here’s why, because Pakistan is a sovereign nation. I think the Pakistanis would want bin Laden out of their hair and out of their country and it’s causing great difficulties in Pakistan itself. > > But I want to assure you I will get Osama bin Laden as president of the United States and I will bring him to justice no matter what it takes. Has there been confirmation that Obama received any sort of consent from Pakistan for a military raid? I heard that the US received intel, and that after the raid they notified the Pakistani authorities, but I didn’t hear about any request for permission. There were certainly elements in Pakistan that didn’t want him “out of their hair” considering his living arrangements. ---
**Author:** ![Markxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5daacb/32.png) [@Markxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Markxxx)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/31 "2011-05-02T22:15:54Z")
It’s way to early for this to really help him much. As a rule people vote their pocketbook. If the economy doesn’t pick up by the 2012 election, Mr Obama is in real trouble. This is why he got in, in 2008 and this is why the Republicans did so well in 2010. The party in office always has trouble in bad economic times ---
**Author:** ![BeefTaco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7ea924/32.png) [@BeefTaco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeefTaco)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/32 "2011-05-02T22:23:20Z")
> [@The\_Hamster\_King](#): > > **If McCain were president, Bin Laden would still be alive.** > > After yesterday, none of these talking points are useful anymore. > > [ul] > [li]Obama is a stealth Muslim.[/li][li]Obama like to pal around with terrorists.[/li][li]Obama is weak and indecisive.[/li][/ul] While the first part of your statement is pure speculation, I agree with the second part about GOP talking points. Who’s to say that McCain would or would not have OBL killed? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/33 "2011-05-02T22:28:03Z")
> [@BeefTaco](#): > > Who’s to say that McCain would or would not have OBL killed? McCain himself. As already pointed out, he said he wouldn’t do what Obama did. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/34 "2011-05-02T22:28:52Z")
> [@BeefTaco](#): > > Who’s to say that McCain would or would not have OBL killed? McCain did. I posted the direct quote above. Unless you are assuming that Pakistan would have allowed for the military strike (thus circumventing the sovereignty issue), and the contact required to get this approval would not have allowed OBL to escape. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/35 "2011-05-02T22:31:23Z")
> [@BeefTaco](#): > > Who’s to say that McCain would or would not have OBL killed? McCain himself, on Larry King live. He explicitly said that he would not go after bin Laden inside Pakistan because that would be a violation of their sovereignty. He implied that Obama was naive for promising to do so. [Well, now the President of Pakistan is complaining because we violated their sovereignty.](http://ibnlive.in.com/news/us-strike-violates-pak-sovereignty-musharraf/151009-56.html) Maybe McCain would have flip-flopped on the matter. But it’s pretty clear that Obama just did exactly what McCain made a point of saying he himself wouldn’t do. ---
**Author:** ![fumster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9c0ed/32.png) [@fumster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fumster)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/36 "2011-05-02T22:33:05Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > If nothing else, it has given Obama a weapon with which to publicly humiliate one of his opponents. If Trump steps out of line, I can guarantee his “I have accomplished something nobody else has accomplished” line is going to be thrown back in his face. > You are taking his statement out of context. The reason he said he would not authorize a raid into Pakistan was [“because Pakistan is a sovereign nation.”](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/02/972229/-John-McCain-said-he-wouldnt-go-after-Bin-Laden-in-Pakistan) > > In case it isn’t bloody obvious, having Pakistan’s cooperation and consent means that obstacle no longer existed. They did not have Pakistan’s consent. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/37 "2011-05-02T22:33:35Z")
Former President, **Hamster**. I have not heard of any such complaints from the current regime in Islamabad. They are being understandably vague about their level of involvement. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/38 "2011-05-02T22:34:20Z")
> [@The\_Hamster\_King](#): > > [Well, now the President of Pakistan is complaining because we violated their sovereignty.](http://ibnlive.in.com/news/us-strike-violates-pak-sovereignty-musharraf/151009-56.html) That link specifically says _Former_ President. I never gave much thought to what Bush or Cheney had to say after Bush left office, either. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/39 "2011-05-02T22:44:07Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Former President, **Hamster**. You’re correct. My zeal was excessive. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/40 "2011-05-02T23:01:56Z")
> [@The\_Hamster\_King](#): > > Of course this will help Obama in 2012. This undercuts several different lines of attack from the right wing: > > [ul] > [li]Obama is a stealth Muslim.[/li][li]Obama like to pal around with terrorists.[/li][li]Obama is weak and indecisive.[/li][/ul]After yesterday, none of these talking points are useful anymore. Anyone else suspect his release of the birth certificate, knowing the OBL operation was about to go, was timed to accentuate the fatuity of the GOP’s position? He can still be beaten; anyone can. But it just got a lot harder to see how or by whom. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512.md?page=3)