# Make the case that ObL's death increases Obama's re-election chances **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 2, 2011, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512 "2011-05-02T20:57:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2011, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/121 "2011-05-03T18:06:40Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Romney has a credibility problem with conservatives that goes deeper than how religious fundamentalists feel about the Mormon thing. And that was true before the health care reform law was passed. I am often struck by how much better liberals know what conservatives think than conservatives do. I think it is more likely that liberals are simply casting about for a reason to convince everyone else not to vote for a Republican. First it was because he was a Mormon, now it is credibility, if the credibility falls thru it will be something else. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2011, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/122 "2011-05-03T18:21:37Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I am often struck by how much better liberals know what conservatives think than conservatives do. > > I think it is more likely that liberals are simply casting about for a reason to convince everyone else not to vote for a Republican. First it was because he was a Mormon, now it is credibility, if the credibility falls thru it will be something else. > > Regards, > Shodan Are you saying Romney doesn’t have a credibility problem with the Republican base? Do you think his religion, flip-flop on abortion, health-care plan, and his background as governor of liberal haven Massachusetts haven’t caused him credibility problems? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2011, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/123 "2011-05-03T18:28:10Z")
The man has all the raw charisma of cottage cheese. When he enters the room, its like someone just left. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2011, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/124 "2011-05-03T18:31:51Z")
Romney is losing in polling of potential GOP primary voters to _Donald Trump_. If that’s not enough to indicate he has a credibility problem I’m not sure what is. As to the potential increase in Obama’s re-election chances, the first post-OBL poll has come out and shows a 9% bump. The two daily tracking polls (which are still primarily pre-OBL) showed 2% and 1% increases today. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2011, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/125 "2011-05-03T18:59:28Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Romney is losing in polling of potential GOP primary voters to _Donald Trump_. If that’s not enough to indicate he has a credibility problem I’m not sure what is. At least in some states,it appears to matter who Romney is compared to - > [@](#): > > [A WMUR Granite State Poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Romney with a 50-43 edge in a hypothetical matchup against President Barack Obama](http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20110429polls_romney_leading_obama_both_burdened_on_health_care_front/srvc=home&position=recent) Although Romney’s health care bill does seem to be a problem. > [@](#): > > [A McClatchy-Marist poll released on Wednesday shows Mitt Romney in a statistical deadheat with President Barack Obama. Obama leads Romney, 46 percent to 45 percent.](http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/20/poll-romney-neck-and-neck-with-obama-trump-palin-far-behind/) > [@](#): > > [If Trump ran in the New Hampshire primary race today, he would attract 21 percent of the vote, second only to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 27 percent, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey.](http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/trump-surges-in-new-hampshire-poll-against-romney/question-1654001/) Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2011, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/126 "2011-05-03T20:01:35Z")
Quoth **Marley23** : > [@](#): > > There’s no arguing with the fact that this happened on his watch. It’s certainly a fact, but I think it’s a bit optimistic to say that there’s no arguing with it. Which conservative pundit was it who claimed that there were no major terrorist attacks on Bush’s watch? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/127 "2011-05-04T02:22:39Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Romney is losing in polling of potential GOP primary voters to _Donald Trump_. If that’s not enough to indicate he has a credibility problem I’m not sure what is. That’s pre-OBL death though. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/128 "2011-05-04T02:37:00Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > That’s pre-OBL death though. This may be the break the Romney campaign was waiting for! ---
**Author:** ![Chessic\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7c8e57/32.png) [@Chessic\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chessic_Sense)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/129 "2011-05-04T15:51:37Z")
Here’s my case, **Rand** : 1. I am a Republican that did not vote for Obama in 2008. 2. Last Friday, I would not vote for Obama. 3. Today, I intend to vote for Obama in 2012. 4. There are others like me. Previously, I thought he was soft on terror. Terrorism is a clear and present danger to the US. People like to downplay this because we’ve been so successful over these past years, so they forget about [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umar_Farouk_Abdulmutallab), [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_planes_bomb_plot), [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_transatlantic_aircraft_plot) and of course [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Hood_shooting). Now I see that Obama is really not afraid to make the dangerous calls. He’ll violate sovereignty to get the most wanted man. He’ll send the SEALs to cap some Somali pirates. He wont dismantle the TSA and other CT organizations. He’ll keep [traitors](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_manning) in solitary confinement against bleeding hearts’ protests. He’s done some things that impress me (brokering a budget deal) and some things that piss me off (HCR). But getting UBL is a huge accomplishment that tips me over the edge. I can’t, in good conscience, vote for any of the Pub candidates besides Romney, so it sounds like Obama’ll get my vote. > [@Phlosphr](#): > > they’d rather see Obama go another 4 years and hope for a better field in 2016. My WAG of course. This is me, precisely. > [@gonzomax](#): > > **Ben** Laden… **Ben** Laden Why do you keep doing that?! It’s “bin Laden”! Lower case! With an I! ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/130 "2011-05-04T16:37:28Z")
I can’t wait for the 2012 National Security debate: Obama: Noun Verb I killed bin Laden. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/131 "2011-05-04T16:42:49Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > I can’t wait for the 2012 National Security debate: > > Obama: Noun Verb I killed bin Laden. Sounds reasonable. The opposing voices will be responding with many words that mean “I got nothin’”. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/132 "2011-05-04T17:00:30Z")
> [@Chessic\_Sense](#): > > Why do you keep doing that?! It’s “bin Laden”! Lower case! With an I! Not anymore. Now it’s been Laden. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/133 "2011-05-04T17:06:56Z")
Obama will piss off some people who think he stepped over the line by crossing international borders to have a enemy assassinated. Some may be offended enough to not vote for him. But I think overall, it will get more voters than it loses. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/134 "2011-05-04T17:11:29Z")
I think anyone who is deeply unhappy about the killing would already have resolved not to vote for Obama based on other things, like the expanded use of drone attacks and the authorization for the killing of Anwar al-Awlaki. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9d8465/32.png) [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Deal_Democrat)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/135 "2011-05-04T17:23:11Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > Many have pointed out that GHW Bush mopped the floor with Iraq in Desert Storm and lost 18 months later. While I think there are obvious differences between the two situations, a few percent bump can mean a lot. It also helps defuse the whole “soft on terrorism” “weak on national defense” attack. > > The economy still needs to improve, but I think if that’s going the right direction, that plus the “he got Osama” factor will help to seal the deal. In addition, right now the Republican 2012 field is, to be charitable, questionable and I doubt we’ll see the equivalent of Perot on the left. > > It’s not a slam-dunk, but it can’t hurt. Donald Trump may be the Ross Perot on the right. He has talked about running as an independent if he is not nominated by the GOP. That would split the anti Obama vote, and guarantee his reelection. ---
**Author:** ![FarmerChuck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/13edae/32.png) [@FarmerChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FarmerChuck)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/136 "2011-05-04T17:46:30Z")
Ok, so here is how ic it. 1. Conservatives looking for another regan wont vote for him they will just stay home 2. Moderates are the majority of the country, and would probably vote for him today, BUT if gas hits 5 bucks this economy is coming to a halt agian, also QE2 is ending in june, so the stock markets going to take a hit… 3. Liberals will vote for him like they did last time, however… ultra lefties will be mad that OBL didnt get a trial, they are also mad that obama has kept gitmo open 4. we still have two wars, which is going to piss of even more people… b/c the simpletons will ask ok if osama is dead why does my son or daughter need to go fight in afgahanastan… will we never win in that country no one has ever conquerd it, and we are fighting it half assed anyway compared to the last war we won. Also they will say why are we still in iraq? and we will probably be in libiya by then 2 cuz the only way to win that war is to get rid of kahadfi, and that means helping the “rebels” who are really al queda fight… which made OSAMA in the first place… 5. No president has ever got elected with unemployment of 8 %… or higher… and its not going to come down at 5 dollar gas (the only way gas is coming down if the economy dies, which it did in 08… so hed still not get elected) 6. if he over politicezes this… he will loose this “unity” like this stunt at ground zero… what is he doing… i know it pisses me off im not alone 7. If he dont release the picutres you have another birther thing… giving trump more fuel agian 8. nov 2012 is along way off from now anyway… said before its an eternity… anything can happen… if we get attacked the economy will tank agian, and people will blame HIM b/c the attacks will be on his watch and b/c of his action this celebration that hes dead is pissing off the people in the mid east, im for it but i know its gonna come back 2 us 9. palin, bachman, that ilk wont run b/c they are unelectable, they are nice people good strong conservitives… but as a social liberal and fiscal conserviative myself i wont vote for them 10. and whats the b.s he has foreign policy expericance… only a year or so ago Seal team six was “cheneys death sqaud”… expericance? no Shared experiance… our millitary is the same no matter who the president is… same Generals, same soldiers… obama didnt hand pick these guys. some general u will never hear about did… Obama has experiance ordering people to be killed… thats not foriegn policy experiance thats doing the right thing… if he didnt shoot those pirates a man would be dead, if he didnt kill bin laden it would be like tora boara all over agian… HE HAD 2… doing HIS JOB is expected, now getting al queda to stop and say you win, or getting CHINA TO STOP FUCKING US IN TRADE is foreign policy also look at the MESS now in the mid east… o yea those in egypt got it real good a millitary dictator ship… 75% of the seats in there parlament wil be run for by muslim brotherhood people… yeaa thats just what we need… tunisa good? no, libia good? no, bakrain good no? how the saudis are treating there own people? good no… THE MID EAST is on fire… and its alll on his watch so yea in the debates this is how it will sound Obama: noun verb i orderd the attack on osama, and have pursed other top al quidea leaders all over the world Medeator: Person x your rebutal? Person x: We all will remember the day osama was killed and i thank the president and all the people who worked the last decade to make it happen, and seal team six _pause for clapping_, However under this president we have seen the mid east destablize, we are currently fighting two costly wars, and are involved ever increasingly in libiya Also when he ran for election he did he have any experiance? no… mccain did… more so then he did… so how does experiance help a candidate at all anyway??? lol and like i said above. . with some facts and figures you can easily punch a hole in his “Forgien policy experiance” And in 2004 bush never ran adds showing planes hitting the towers, and how for 3 years he has kept us safe… so whats obama going to do put up i orderd the death of a guy that planned 9/11… so vote for me? no and if he does it will piss off people. O and some great foriegn policy… our “ally” pakistan tottaly new he was there… but didnt bother 2 tell us? also there are stories out there that germany and france want to leave nato and join up with russia…ya… great foriegn policy… ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/137 "2011-05-04T18:02:18Z")
> [@FarmerChuck](#): > > Also when he ran for election he did he have any experiance? no.. mccain did… more so then he did… so how does experiance help a candidate at all anyway??? That’s an interesting point - Obama was chosen over McCain even though Obama had less/no foreign policy experience. So another candidate could be better than Obama even if that candidate had less foreign policy experience than Obama. I still don’t think foreign policy will matter nearly as much as the economy in the next election. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/138 "2011-05-04T18:14:25Z")
> [@FarmerChuck](#): > > Ok, so here is how ic it. > > 1. Conservatives looking for another regan wont vote for him they will just stay home > > 2. Moderates are the majority of the country, and would probably vote for him today, BUT if gas hits 5 bucks this economy is coming to a halt agian, also QE2 is ending in june, so the stock markets going to take a hit… > > 3. Liberals will vote for him like they did last time, however.. ultra lefties will be mad that OBL didnt get a trial, they are also mad that obama has kept gitmo open > > 4. we still have two wars, which is going to piss of even more people… b/c the simpletons will ask ok if osama is dead why does my son or daughter need to go fight in afgahanastan… will we never win in that country no one has ever conquerd it, and we are fighting it half assed anyway compared to the last war we won. Also they will say why are we still in iraq? and we will probably be in libiya by then 2 cuz the only way to win that war is to get rid of kahadfi, and that means helping the “rebels” who are really al queda fight.. which made OSAMA in the first place.. > > 5. No president has ever got elected with unemployment of 8 %… or higher.. and its not going to come down at 5 dollar gas (the only way gas is coming down if the economy dies, which it did in 08… so hed still not get elected) > > 6. if he over politicezes this… he will loose this “unity” like this stunt at ground zero.. what is he doing.. i know it pisses me off im not alone > > 7. If he dont release the picutres you have another birther thing.. giving trump more fuel agian > > 8. nov 2012 is along way off from now anyway… said before its an eternity… anything can happen… if we get attacked the economy will tank agian, and people will blame HIM b/c the attacks will be on his watch and b/c of his action this celebration that hes dead is pissing off the people in the mid east, im for it but i know its gonna come back 2 us > > 9. palin, bachman, that ilk wont run b/c they are unelectable, they are nice people good strong conservitives… but as a social liberal and fiscal conserviative myself i wont vote for them > > 10. and whats the b.s he has foreign policy expericance.. only a year or so ago Seal team six was “cheneys death sqaud”… expericance? no Shared experiance… our millitary is the same no matter who the president is… same Generals, same soldiers… obama didnt hand pick these guys. some general u will never hear about did.. Obama has experiance ordering people to be killed.. thats not foriegn policy experiance thats doing the right thing… if he didnt shoot those pirates a man would be dead, if he didnt kill bin laden it would be like tora boara all over agian.. HE HAD 2… doing HIS JOB is expected, now getting al queda to stop and say you win, or getting CHINA TO STOP FUCKING US IN TRADE is foreign policy also look at the MESS now in the mid east.. o yea those in egypt got it real good a millitary dictator ship… 75% of the seats in there parlament wil be run for by muslim brotherhood people.. yeaa thats just what we need.. tunisa good? no, libia good? no, bakrain good no? how the saudis are treating there own people? good no.. THE MID EAST is on fire… and its alll on his watch > so yea in the debates this is how it will sound > Obama: noun verb i orderd the attack on osama, and have pursed other top al quidea leaders all over the world > Medeator: Person x your rebutal? > Person x: We all will remember the day osama was killed and i thank the president and all the people who worked the last decade to make it happen, and seal team six _pause for clapping_, However under this president we have seen the mid east destablize, we are currently fighting two costly wars, and are involved ever increasingly in libiya > Also when he ran for election he did he have any experiance? no.. mccain did… more so then he did… so how does experiance help a candidate at all anyway??? lol and like i said above. . with some facts and figures you can easily punch a hole in his “Forgien policy experiance” > And in 2004 bush never ran adds showing planes hitting the towers, and how for 3 years he has kept us safe… so whats obama going to do put up i orderd the death of a guy that planned 9/11.. so vote for me? no and if he does it will piss off people. O and some great foriegn policy.. our “ally” pakistan tottaly new he was there.. but didnt bother 2 tell us? also there are stories out there that germany and france want to leave nato and join up with russia…ya.. great foriegn policy… This was painful to read due to formatting etc., but I think I agree with you 100% (except that I don’t know enough background to really evaluate the stuff at the end re: France and Germany). I was just about to type up a post on my reactions to the different ideas discussed above, but I’ll just sign on to this one. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/139 "2011-05-04T19:15:35Z")
No Obama spporter here…but the killing did give him some positive spin. Now, if Al Quedah launches a counterstrike (that winds up killing lots of Americans), it could backfire on him. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2011, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512/140 "2011-05-04T19:49:18Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > No Obama spporter here..but the killing did give him some positive spin. > Now, if Al Quedah launches a counterstrike (that winds up killing lots of Americans), it could backfire on him. Heh. Thanks for giving me a chuckle. I typed “Who’s Al Quedah?” before realizing what you meant. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/make-the-case-that-obls-death-increases-obamas-re-election-chances/580512.md?page=8)