Making America Great Again: The Benchmarks (Economy)

Politics & Elections
21

Good analysis by 538 here. Long-term trends are particularly enlightening. Take-home for me: not many trends he can take credit for (trends that weren’t ongoing already in late 2016), though a slight acceleration in manufacturing jobs that had flattened out (and not long enough to see if it’s sustaining).

22

I thought I would bump this to provide an update. I gathered this info end of last week with the intention of updating on 1/20, but over the weekend got busy with other things and forgot.

Dow:

  • 1/20/2017: 19,827
  • 1/20/2018: 26,071
  • 1/20/2019: 24,706

S&P 500:

  • 1/20/2017: 2,271
  • 1/20/2018: 2,810
  • 1/20/2019: 2,671

Nasdaq:

  • 1/20/2017: 5,555
  • 1/20/2018: 7,336
  • 1/20/2019: 7,157

Crude Oil/brl:

  • 1/20/2017: $53.24
  • 1/20/2018: $63.37
  • 1/20/2019: $52.07

Gold/oz:

  • 1/20/2017: $1,213.50
  • 1/20/2018: $1,331.50
  • 1/20/2019: $1,284.30

Unemployment rate:

  • 1/20/2017: 4.7% (thru Dec 2016)
  • 1/20/2018: 4.1% (thru Dec 2017)
  • 1/20/2019: 3.9% (thru Dec 2018)

National Debt:

  • 1/20/2017: $19,962,092,000,000
  • 1/20/2018: $20,612,109,000,000
  • 1/20/2019: $21,947,856,000,000

Debt per Citizen:

  • 1/20/2017: $61,364
  • 1/20/2018: $63,022
  • 1/20/2019: $66,841

Debt per Taxpayer:

  • 1/20/2017: $166,773
  • 1/20/2018: $170,351
  • 1/20/2019: $179,464

Uninsured Rate (Health Insurance):

  • 1/20/2017: 10.9%
  • 1/20/2018: 12.2%
  • 1/20/2019: 13.7%

GDP Growth Rate:

  • 1/20/2017: 3.5%
  • 1/20/2018: 3.2%
  • 1/20/2019: 3.4%

Inflation Rate:

  • 1/20/2017: 2.1%
  • 1/20/2018: 2.1%
  • 1/20/2019: 1.9%

Federal Deficit:

  • 1/20/2017: $587B
  • 1/20/2018: $666B
  • 1/20/2019: $985B

Labor Force Participation Rate:

  • 1/20/2017: 62.7%
  • 1/20/2018: 62.7%
  • 1/20/2019: 63.1%
23

In other words, stock market down, debt up.

24

I find this analysis particularly interesting since the Trumpster’s like to talk about how great Trump is doing with the markets.

Now, I’m of the view that the president is one minor actor among a myriad of actors that effect the markets, but if you subscribe to the view of giving the president the credit/blame then Obama did a great job. Trump’s early performance was roughly a straightline continuation of the Obama market. And now it is starting to falter.

25

A super-simplistic interpretation: The market capitalization of the S & P 500 in Jan. 2017 was $19.6T. It’s now $21.0T. So the additional $2T of national debt, combined with a 68% bump in the annual deficit, has purchased $1.4T in additional shareholder value.

Pretty good deal for those wealthy enough to hold stocks – lower taxes and higher share prices.

Wonder what our grandkids will think.

26

The last point is, or course, from December. I (and others) prefer the “core age” rate, ages 25-54, to avoid demographic changes. That’s 81.5, 81.8, and 82.3 for Jan, Jan, and Dec.
BLS LNS11300060

And for unemployment, U-6 was 9.3, 8.2, and 7.6. It bottomed out at 7.4 in August. We’ll see what the recent shenanigans in DC do.

27

Did anyone mention stock buybacks? I think that was about $1.1 trillion in 2018. Which is about what we saw in 2007.

28

You’re not suggesting companies buy back to create a peak for insiders to cash out, are you? :rolleyes:

Although Treasury bond prices have fallen a little in January, the yield curve remains slightly inverted, with 1-year yields slightly more than 3-year yields. This is NOT a sign of investor confidence. Contrast this with much of the 1990’s when the 3-year yielded 0.4-0.6% more than the 1-year.

29

Assuming the shutdown ends, I wonder if future Republican sycophants will try to credit Trump with creating 800,000 jobs in one month the way current ones try to credit Reagan with creating 1.1 million jobs in September 1983.

30

I personally feel that the president has little, if anything to do with most of the metric in the OP or in the OPs update, but I also think you have to put the US’s figures in the context of what’s happening in the rest of the world. AFAIK, no one is really don’t very good atm. China seems to be tanking hard, the EU isn’t doing all that great, the UK on it’s own seems to be doing worse (but I don’t think that’s in the context of the others), Japan and South Korea aren’t doing all that well. I’m not sure about Canada or Australia, but my impression is the US is doing pretty well (despite Trump) wrt the rest of the world.

Those debt figures are definitely worrying though. :eek:

31

Many great numbers. On the debt, Obama acculimated more debt than all other presidents combined. On food stamps, they went up under his administration.

32

Now who’s lying? That BS has been debunked many times, even by that well-known left-wing rag, Forbes:

President Obama’s debt actually grew at a slower annual rate than any of the Republican presidents even though there were events that negatively impacted the deficit that started before he became President.

33

Survey says. Bzzzzzz.

Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk

34

On the debt, Obama acculimated more debt than all other presidents combined. On food stamps, they went up under his administration.

Beep, CNN won’t report this news on Obama:

The last eight years have brought the lowest labor participation rates since the 1970s, with 95 million Americans out of the labor force. The so-called recovery has been the weakest one since the 1940s. We have the lowest home ownership rate in 51 years – despite mortgage rates artificially kept at record lows. Over 11 million more Americans are on food stamps since he became president and more than 43 million Americans now live in poverty.

OUCH.

35

That Forbes article has interesting numbers.

Saying that Obama accumulated more debt than all other presidents combined is the same as saying that Obama more than doubled the debt. Let’s look at the numbers.

Obama

Started Presidency: $11.1 trillion
Ended Presidency: $19.85 trillion
Rise = 79%

George W. Bush

Started Presidency: $5.77 trillion
Ended Presidency: $11.1 trillion
Rise = 92%

Clinton

Started Presidency: $4.23 trillion
Ended Presidency: $5.77 trillion
Rise = 36%

George H.W. Bush

Started Presidency: $2.74 trillion
Ended Presidency: $4.23 trillion
Rise = 54%

Reagan

Started Presidency: $965 billion
Ended Presidency: $2.74 trillion
Rise = 184%

Reagan. Reagan more than doubled the debt. St. Ronald Fucking Reagan almost tripled the debt. Reagan piled up more debt than all his predecessors combined, and then said “Hold my beer” and nearly accomplished it a second time. Who’s number two on this list? Bush II, who did almost double the debt. Despite being handed one of the worst financial crises in history, Obama is a poor third. But even that is misleading. Bush I only was in office four years to everyone else’s eight. If he had accumulated debt at the same rate in a second term, his increase would be 108% or more than double. In recent years, Republicans consistently pile up more debt than all their predecessors combined. Democrats do not.

These numbers are out there, easily available. Some explanation for why this utterly false accusation can still be repeated year after year must exist. Is it that Republicans literally don’t understand basic arithmetic, or even counting? That’s very likely given the evidence. Or is it that Republicans will consciously repeat utter nonsense as long as it conforms to their prejudices? That’s also very likely given the evidence.

So which is it, Ancient Erudite?

36

That’s a nice cherry you picked word for word from Sean Hannity. Color me unimpressed. Hannity is a lying partisan sack of crap as evidenced by the very next line “And by the time he leaves office, President Obama will have added more to our national debt that all the other presidents before him combined.” Oops. Or rather OUCH.

What’s next Obama used fancy mustard and wore a tan suit?

37

Ancient Erudite, I’m going to assume that this was inadvertant. But in the future, when you quote something, please indicate in some way that the words are not yours. Let’s not get into copyright issues.

38

I’m seeing 10-yr / 3 Mo of 1.15 as of yesterday, so close but not inverted yet by that measure. Although 5-yr has been dancing around the 2-year and dipping below by a hundredth now and then since early December.

39

As much as I enjoyed Exapno Mapcase’s jaw-shattering upper-cut to Ancient Erudite, this thread is not about Obama, so if you are thinking of posting something that deflects away from the Trump economy, please do so elsewhere. :slight_smile:

Back on topic. AFAICT, the economy overall has been steady, in spite of Trump’s efforts. When he first took office I was thinking he would lead the economy careening toward the cliff’s edge, but we have been steady. Sure, the stock market overall has sustained the bull market started prior to Trump (and it’s been a rough ride), but do the gains in the last couple years have legs, or are we at the edge of some sort of bubble? I know there are a few comments suggesting there are some troubling signs here and there, but are indicators pointing toward bigger problems, like they were in 2008?

40

I don’t think they are yet. Still just in troubling signs territory.