# Manhattan Prosecutors file criminal charges for Trump re Stormy Daniels case - ongoing discussion here (Guilty on all 34 counts, May 30, 2024) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [March 9, 2023, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953 "2023-03-09T22:53:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e8c25b/32.png) [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/excavating_for_a_mind)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/261 "2023-03-21T16:22:45Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > … happy that we’re establishing the procedure and precedent for him to be arrested… I’d be very much satisfied with merely indicting, trying, and convicting his Oranganus on just about anything. One of the most inane claims from the right is that Trump was the bestest President, evah! and has never done anything wrong and Every. Single. Time. the paedophillic/communist/Marxist/socialist/America Hating/Immoral/Democrats and Concerned Moderates accuse him of anything, he is exonerated and the whole thing was simply a Witch Hunt because the lefties have so much HATE for such a intelligent, effective, and benign ruler. Of course, watching Trump and the GOP in the House squeal as indictment approaches gives its own satisfaction. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/262 "2023-03-21T16:51:53Z")
Back of envelope calculations: Trump got 13% of the vote in Manhattan. If we assume that one-quarter of his voters are totally unwilling to convict him despite evidence, that would put 3.25% of the jury pool in that category, giving a 66.9% chance that a random group of 12 Manhattanites wouldn’t contain any of them. That’s without accounting for voir dire. In almost all of the country it might be very problematic, but in Manhattan he might be able to get a fair trial. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/263 "2023-03-21T16:59:05Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > If we assume that one-quarter of his voters are totally unwilling to convict him despite evidence, that would put 3.25% of the jury pool in that category, giving a 66.9% chance that a random group of 12 Manhattanites wouldn’t contain any of them. I’m getting 32.7%. 1-(0.9675^12). ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/264 "2023-03-21T17:03:01Z")
Dunno. I used [this calculator,](https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial) plugging in .967 as the chance of success and 12/12 success being the outcome of interest. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/265 "2023-03-21T17:06:45Z")
Asha O’Rangappa put together this chart of the working theories of the Bragg indictment. It’s pretty good and receiving praise from the typical Twitter legal eagles… > ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/266 "2023-03-21T17:17:30Z")
That looks like a lot of things to prove. I hope it’s distilled extremely succinctly for a jury to follow along. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/267 "2023-03-21T17:18:22Z")
Right, but remember, they only have to prove ONE of them to get the win. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/268 "2023-03-21T17:19:37Z")
Oh, shit — I brain farted. I calculated the chance of not selecting a Trumpie acquitter. Getting old and slow. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/269 "2023-03-21T17:20:56Z")
Good point. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/270 "2023-03-21T17:24:40Z")
You know, if Trump is not arrested today I’m going to begin to be a bit skeptical of the veracity of the things he says. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/271 "2023-03-21T17:26:42Z")
You’re doing it wrong! If the prediction doesn’t come true, it’s because getting the Truth™ out there scared them off! All those Patriots™ and their Freedom™ AR-15s™ won! Then donate $3300 to Trump. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/272 "2023-03-21T17:26:45Z")
That way lies madness. I’ll throw a sixer in the fridge for when you get here. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/273 "2023-03-21T17:29:49Z")
remember that the foreperson in ga had never voted and did not follow politics. i’m reckoning on there being a lot more people out there who are like her. they just could care less. they got picked for jury duty due to being on some sort of list and now they are in a jury room. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/274 "2023-03-21T19:58:19Z")
So, here I am. It’s my cake day. I have a load of popcorn ready to go into the microwave and no reason to do so. I tell ya, it’s reminding me of my 8th birthday and the pony I didn’t get. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/275 "2023-03-21T20:08:37Z")
My biggest complaint about that law was the likelihood of selective enforcement. I still feel that way. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/276 "2023-03-21T20:10:49Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > I’ll throw a sixer in the fridge for when you get here. Nothing for you? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/277 "2023-03-21T20:20:40Z")
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/bomb-threat-called-in-to-ny-court-where-trump-hearing-held](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/bomb-threat-called-in-to-ny-court-where-trump-hearing-held) More excitement. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/278 "2023-03-21T20:34:38Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Asha O’Rangappa put together this chart of the working theories of the Bragg indictment. I love the Trump stick figure, it looks like it has toothpaste on its head. Yet I could tell it was Trump. ---
**Author:** ![xizor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xizor/32/102_2.png) [@xizor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xizor)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/279 "2023-03-21T20:35:21Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/bomb-threat-called-in-to-ny-court-where-trump-hearing-held](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/bomb-threat-called-in-to-ny-court-where-trump-hearing-held) > > More excitement. “Umm, hello this is… umm, John Barron, I think there is a bomb in the courthouse where they are saying bad things about the most wonderfullest President we ever had.” ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2023, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/280 "2023-03-21T20:44:14Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > it’s reminding me of my 8th birthday and the pony I didn’t get. But only if it was the pony’s ass that made the promise. Trump is the only one who said Tuesday. Why would anybody make plans around anything that guy says? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953.md?page=15)