# Manhattan Prosecutors file criminal charges for Trump re Stormy Daniels case - ongoing discussion here (Guilty on all 34 counts, May 30, 2024)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Tags:** trump
**Created:** [March 9, 2023, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953 "2023-03-09T22:53:57Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 321
### Author:  [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)
#### Post date: [September 5, 2024, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6401 "2024-09-05T22:16:43Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#):
>
> You don’t know this
How many members of his extended campaign team are felons with whom he is technically barred from interacting, and how many microscopic fragments of effort has he made to avoid interacting with them?
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### Author:  [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)
#### Post date: [September 5, 2024, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6402 "2024-09-05T22:18:35Z")
You don’t understand why Justice Merchan isn’t violating him on these minor matters, do you?
If Trump is violated before sentencing, he’s just got another issue on appeal to delay the sentencing further. Once sentencing has taken place, it’s a different kettle of fish. If Trump violates his probation terms after sentencing, no more appeals.
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### Author:  [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)
#### Post date: [September 5, 2024, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6403 "2024-09-05T22:28:18Z")
I guess I’m just far more cynical than you about Trump making a conscientious effort to distance himself from Peter Navarro (who spoke at the RNC) and similar types in order to play nice. I see Trump deliberately thumbing his nose at the court and daring the judge to do something about these “minor” matters.
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### Author:  [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)
#### Post date: [September 5, 2024, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6404 "2024-09-05T22:30:51Z")
> [@Cervaise](#):
>
> I see Trump deliberately thumbing his nose at the court and daring the judge to do something about these “minor” matters.
That’s exactly what Trump is doing, hoping that Merchan will violate his probation so Trump has an excuse to take the case again to a higher court and delay the sentencing further. Justice Merchan is far too experienced to fall for that bullshit.
He’ll wait until he sentences Trump. And then Merchan will own him if Trump violates his probation. Bet you won’t see Trump standing next to _any_ felon after he’s sentenced.
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### Author:  [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)
#### Post date: [September 5, 2024, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6405 "2024-09-05T22:32:01Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#):
>
> Bet you won’t see Trump standing next to _any_ felon after he’s sentenced.
I would not hesitate to take that bet if it weren’t against board rules.
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### Author:  [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)
#### Post date: [September 5, 2024, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6406 "2024-09-05T22:33:07Z")
Poor choice of words on my part.
I don’t think Merchan would hesitate to have Trump violated if he does. After sentencing, though.
ETA: Navarro was convicted of misdemeanor contempt. He’s not a felon.
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### Author:  [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)
#### Post date: [September 5, 2024, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6407 "2024-09-05T22:57:09Z")
> [@Cervaise](#):
>
> I guess I’m just far more cynical than you about Trump making a conscientious effort to distance himself from Peter Navarro (who spoke at the RNC) and similar types in order to play nice. I see Trump deliberately thumbing his nose at the court and daring the judge to do something about these “minor” matters.
I think this is a reasonable stance. For the most part, Trump has not only gotten away with flouting norms his entire life he has often been rewarded for it. I think a lot of Trump’s actions are coming back to bite him in the butt now, but it’s tough to break a lifelong habit.
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### Author:  [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)
#### Post date: [September 5, 2024, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6408 "2024-09-05T22:59:58Z")
Well, so far, no one has offered any legitimate “minor matters” where Trump has actually violated his probation. Ever since Justice Merchan made it clear that he would take Trump into custody for violations, I can’t think of a single instance where he’s actually crossed a line. Can you?
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### Author:  [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6409 "2024-09-06T00:50:56Z")
> [@Akaj](#):
>
> My WAG is that Merchan sentences Trump – on schedule – to the harshest sentence possible that won’t adversely affect Trump’s ability to campaign or stand for office.
It wont make any difference. trump will appeal, in in general in NY you get to be out on bail while your first appeal is pending. So even if Marchant says “34 consecutive one year terms” it will not directly- impact trumps campaign. Altho with that looming over him, it will have an impact of course.
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#):
>
> My guess is that Merchan will impose a term of incarceration, stayed pending appeal.
Standard in NY for non violent offenders is to tay out on bail until then. Mind you, the Judge could impose restrictions such as “no fraternizing with known felons”…
> [@Akaj](#):
>
> Factual question, which I’m sure has already been answered a dozen times in this thread: If Merchan says “four years in prison,” does Trump in fact get hauled off to prison? Or will some appeal or other delaying tactic keep him un-incarcerated?
As i said above and several times in this thread- no, trump will be out on bail until the first appeal is heard.
I suspect the sentence will be something like one year supervised house arrest and 3 years suspended sentence.
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### Author:  [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6410 "2024-09-06T01:01:43Z")
> [@DrDeth](#):
>
> It wont make any difference. trump will appeal, in in general in NY you get to be out on bail while your first appeal is pending. So even if Marchant says “34 consecutive one year terms” it will not directly- impact trumps campaign. Altho with that looming over him, it will have an impact of course.
I expect Trump to be sentenced to either a year in jail or perhaps two-three years of prison. I also expect Trump to remain free on bail during the inevitable appeal. I’m fine with that.
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### Author:  [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6411 "2024-09-06T17:09:21Z")
sentencing will be november 26th 2024.
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### Author:  [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6412 "2024-09-06T17:21:41Z")
> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> I predict that Judge Merchan will delay sentencing until after the election, with the hope that Trump loses so the sentence loses its political implications.
> [@Manhattan Prosecutors file criminal charges for Trump re Stormy Daniels case - ongoing discussion here (Guilty on all 34 counts, May 30, 2024)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6258):
>
> I think the same. Judge Merchan is too smart to be the 2024 Comey.
\< High-fives @Moriarty \>
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### Author:  [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6413 "2024-09-06T17:58:26Z")
nov. 12th will be the decision on the request by team trump to reverse the conviction and dismiss the case due to presidential immunity.
on tuesday the federal judge rejected team trump’s request on moving the case to federal court. an appeal to that decision is pending.
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### Author:  [@lum\_s\_husband](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lum_s_husband)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6414 "2024-09-06T18:00:59Z")
Another mulligan in a lifetime of mulligans.
Trump is above the law.
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### Author:  [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6415 "2024-09-06T18:10:12Z")
Unbefuckinglievable.
There goes the last shot to have Trump suffer any legal consequences whatsover for any of his obvious crimes before this election.
He should have been in an orange jumpsuit three and a half years ago.
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### Author:  [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6416 "2024-09-06T18:17:59Z")
> [@Akaj](#):
>
> Unbefuckinglievable.
If the 34 felony convictions didn’t matter, a nominal jail sentence isn’t going to, either. But imposing a nominal jail sentence before the election could well have enraged enough lukewarm Trump supporters who were otherwise going to sit on their ass this election to come out and vote as a protest against his “unfair” treatment.
I’m also going to speculate that Justice Merchan is fairly confident in the outcome of the upcoming election.
I don’t disagree that Trump should have been in an orange jumpsuit three and a half years ago, but there have been many unforeseeable turns of events that have allowed him to dodge responsibility. He certainly does enjoy advantages that no one else does – like a corrupt SCOTUS that is willing to run interference for him.
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### Author:  [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6417 "2024-09-06T18:23:51Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#):
>
> If the 34 felony convictions didn’t matter, a nominal jail sentence isn’t going to, either. But imposing a nominal jail sentence before the election could well have enraged enough lukewarm Trump supporters who were otherwise going to sit on their ass this election to come out and vote as a protest against his “unfair” treatment.
I think that is implicit, in fact all but explicit in some of the judge’s commentary I’ve read [online](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/judge-delays-trumps-sentencing/index.html):
> Merchan noted the upcoming presidential election in his decision to delay sentencing, saying that part of his reason for doing so was to avoid the appearance that the sentencing was intended to influence the November election.
>
> “Adjourning decision on the motion and sentencing, if such is required, should dispel any suggestion that the Court will have issued any decision or imposed sentence either to give an advantage to, or to create a disadvantage for, any political party and or any candidate for any office,” Merchan wrote.
He, opposite of our SCOTUS, is explicitly avoiding even the appearance of conflict of interest (eyeballing you Alito and Thomas!!!) by allowing the delay.
I am of many minds about it. Overall… I’m 60/40 in favor of this move. Prior to our changeover in candidates… not so sure. But not giving Trump new fuel to rant about is _probably_ (🤞 ) more helpful in terms of the election than any of the likely sentences he would have been given.
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### Author:  [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6418 "2024-09-06T18:26:18Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#):
>
> If the 34 felony convictions didn’t matter, a nominal jail sentence isn’t going to, either.
There’s a difference between voting for someone with 34 felony convictions and voting for someone who’s _actually in jail_. (Although, as has been explained, even if sentenced to jail he wouldn’t actually be in jail.)
> [@Aspenglow](#):
>
> Justice Merchan is fairly confident in the outcome of the upcoming election.
Really? Can I smoke what he’s smoking?
> [@ParallelLines](#):
>
> He, opposite of our SCOTUS, is explicitly avoiding even the appearance of conflict of interest (eyeballing you Alito and Thomas!!!) by allowing the delay.
Oh good – more “when they go low, we go high.” Wake me up when it works.
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### Author:  [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6419 "2024-09-06T18:30:03Z")
> [@Akaj](#):
>
> Oh good – more “when they go low, we go high.” Wake me up when it works.
Eh, as I said, I _think_ like @Aspenglow it’s the moral high ground AND reasonably accurate political judgment, so a two-fer. And it undercuts his claims on all future appeals that his convictions are completely political.
Again, I don’t think sentencing him to jail or house arrest (which IMHO wouldn’t have been carried out until after the election anyway) would have moved the needle on his supporters, and it MIGHT have brought out a few more people to vote on his behalf that are otherwise no longer enthusiastic but voting their habits or prejudice.
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### Author:  [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2024, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here-guilty-on-all-34-counts-may-30-2024/980953/6420 "2024-09-06T18:42:53Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#):
>
> I don’t think sentencing him to jail or house arrest (which IMHO wouldn’t have been carried out until after the election anyway) would have moved the needle on his supporters, and it MIGHT have brought out a few more people to vote on his behalf that are otherwise no longer enthusiastic but voting their habits or prejudice.
I think it’s more likely voters would have been more reluctant to vote for someone who’s actually been sentenced to jail time. But I guess we’ll never know now.
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