# Manila today. A prediction of the future for the world ? (overpopulation) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 16, 2010, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305 "2010-10-16T00:01:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![simple\_homer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@simple\_homer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/simple_homer)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/1 "2010-10-16T00:01:22Z")
"Manila is one of the world’s most overpopulated cities. Reporter Jenny Kleeman and director Richard Cookson find the Philippine capital stretched to breaking point, with mothers four to a bed in maternity wards, primary schools with a thousand children in each year, and graveyards with no more room to bury the dead. " “Manila’s problems may appear extraordinary. But as global population grows, the city provides a vision of what might become ordinary around the world as the rest of the planet runs out of space.” Read and watch videos here: > **[Unreported World](https://www.channel4.com/programmes/unreported-world)** > > Critically acclaimed foreign affairs series offering a look beyond the news agenda ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/2 "2010-10-16T06:12:57Z")
If this isn’t a debate in the offing, than my debate-radar must need recalibrating. Moving from MPSIMS to Great Debates. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/3 "2010-10-16T06:38:57Z")
The Phillipines is only about 40th in the world for population density. Countries with greater population density include Belgium, Japan, Israel and the Netherlands. Some of those places are known for having their own issues with crowding, but I don’t think any of them would be putting new mums four to a bed and being unable to bury their dead. The Phillipines itself seems to have a particularly bad situationwith a) relatively high population density, b) lots of poverty, c) large family sizes. So I can well believe they may be headed for crisis. I’m not sure how far you can translate their situation to the rest of the world though. ---
**Author:** ![nachtmusick](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ac91a4/32.png) [@nachtmusick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nachtmusick)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/4 "2010-10-16T10:56:45Z")
The rest of the World’s situation has translated itself into the poor neighborhoods in every city on the planet. The refugees think they fled poverty, disease, lack of opportunity, and violence. What they really fled was overpopulation. Overpopulation is a word that politicians cannot utter. It is kryptonite to both progressives and conservatives. It is the word that even refugees do not allow themselves to consider. It is the dread that shall not be named. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/5 "2010-10-16T11:58:35Z")
> [@Aspidistra](#): > > The Philippines is only about 40th in the world for population density. Countries with greater population density include Belgium, Japan, Israel and the Netherlands. Some of those places are known for having their own issues with crowding, but I don’t think any of them would be putting new mums four to a bed and being unable to bury their dead. Those numbers are a bit misleading - the Philippines may bot be crowded as a whole, but that’s only because so much of the country is uninhabitable jungle. It’s the lack of this kind of wilderness that makes Belgium, Japan, Israel and the Netherlands so heavily populated, not the actual density of the inhabited areas. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/6 "2010-10-16T12:35:53Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Those numbers are a bit misleading - the Philippines may bot be crowded as a whole, but that’s only because so much of the country is uninhabitable jungle. It’s the lack of this kind of wilderness that makes Belgium, Japan, Israel and the Netherlands so heavily populated, not the actual density of the inhabited areas. Good point. Though isn’t a lot of Japan mountainous, and therefore also hard to inhabit? And somewhere like, say, Singapore has twenty times the population density of the Phillipines. Of course, it also has twenty times the per-person GDP. I’d need more convincing that this is evidence of a poverty problem, specifically, rather than a poverty problem. Is life harder in the Phillipines than, say, Nicaragua and Uzbekistan, which have similar GDPs but much lower populations? And, fortunately, the fertility rate is going down in all these places (like pretty much everywhere in the world). I’d find population increase a lot more alarming if we didn’t already have good reason to expect it’s going to peak within a few decades, and then decline. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/7 "2010-10-16T16:07:54Z")
The most common prediction is that world population will peak at about 9.3 billion in about 2080: > **[World population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population)** > > In demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took over 200,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach one billion and only 219 years more to reach 8 billion. > The human population has experienced continuous growth following the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the end of the Black Death in 1350, when it was nearly 370,000,000. Th... ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/8 "2010-10-16T16:38:14Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > The most common prediction is that world population will peak at about 9.3 billion in about 2080: > > [World population - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population) According to your link we’re expected to hit 9-10 billion by 2050. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/9 "2010-10-16T16:55:41Z")
No, look at the chart at the top. The orange line is the most common prediction. This gives a population of about 9.3 billion in about 2080, after which the population starts to drop. Tell me where you see the prediction that we’ll reach 9-10 billion in 2050. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/10 "2010-10-16T16:56:38Z")
> [@AClockworkMelon](#): > > > [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > > > The most common prediction is that world population will peak at about 9.3 billion in about 2080: > > > > [World population - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population) > > According to your link we’re expected to hit 9-10 billion by 2050. From the article: > [@](#): > > Current projections show a continued increase of population (but a steady decline in the population growth rate) with the population expected to reach between 8 and 10.5 billion in the year 2050. ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/11 "2010-10-16T16:58:34Z")
Also look at the graph in that article [here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#Milestones_by_the_billions), which says that we’ll hit 9 billion by 2045. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/12 "2010-10-16T17:26:52Z")
8 billion in 2050 doesn’t contradict peaking at 9.3 billion in 2080. On the other hand, 10.5 billion is clearly higher than nearly anyone predicts. Reaching 9 billion in 2050 also doesn’t contradict peaking at 9.3 billion. The most common prediction is that the population will only be increasing very slowly between 2050 and 2080, going from 9.0 billion to 9.3 billion. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/13 "2010-10-16T18:22:48Z")
The rest of the planet won’t be running out of space. Denmark isn’t running out of space. In 2050 there’ll be about the same number as today. Perhaps slightly less. That’s pretty much the same picture for all the neighbouring countries. Maybe they’ll be running out of space in the Philippines or in India or in Africa, or whereever. Sucks for them, but it’s not my responsibility. So maybe you meant to say: The future for countries engaging in irresponsible and unsustainable population increase? ---
**Author:** ![toofs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/4491bb/32.png) [@toofs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toofs)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/14 "2010-10-16T21:02:08Z")
> [@nachtmusick](#): > > The rest of the World’s situation has translated itself into the poor neighborhoods in every city on the planet. The refugees think they fled poverty, disease, lack of opportunity, and violence. What they really fled was overpopulation. > > Overpopulation is a word that politicians cannot utter. It is kryptonite to both progressives and conservatives. It is the word that even refugees do not allow themselves to consider. It is the dread that shall not be named. Overpopulation is probably the greatest issue facing humanity over the long run. Think we burn a lot of fossil fuels now? Or how about over fishing and the impact that has on the global oceanic ecosystems. Rain forest deforestation, fragile habitat destruction and the ever shrinking populations of large wild animals are all current problems. Imagine what those issues will be like when we have another few _billion_ humans striving for a high consumption western lifestyle. Goodbye to all the neat large animals out there. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/15 "2010-10-16T21:14:47Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Those numbers are a bit misleading - the Philippines may bot be crowded as a whole, but that’s only because so much of the country is uninhabitable jungle. It’s the lack of this kind of wilderness that makes Belgium, Japan, Israel and the Netherlands so heavily populated, not the actual density of the inhabited areas. Japan is mostly mountains and forest. In fact,\* it’s one of the most heavily forested nations in the developed world\*. The great majority of Japan’s land area is uninhabited. It doesn’t have the same human problems as the Philippines because it’s rich. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/16 "2010-10-16T21:26:07Z")
The basic problem is not overpopulation. We will probably peak at a population that’s not much above our present population, and arguably it could even be a sustainable level of population. The problem is the Western (and particularly American) high-consumption lifestyle. Yes, we should limit the population, and it would probably be good to limit it to a level somewhat below the current level. What we basically need to do though is get the world to some level of consumption at which we could sustain ourselves indefinitely at. ---
**Author:** ![toofs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/4491bb/32.png) [@toofs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toofs)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/17 "2010-10-16T21:35:30Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > The basic problem is not overpopulation. We will probably peak at a population that’s not much above our present population, and arguably it could even be a sustainable level of population. The problem is the Western (and particularly American) high-consumption lifestyle. Yes, we should limit the population, and it would probably be good to limit it to a level somewhat below the current level. What we basically need to do though is get the world to some level of consumption at which we could sustain ourselves indefinitely at. Getting the world to a sustainable level of consumption should be the goal. The problem is the level. With projections of 9.5 billion (thereabouts) we are likely looking at a lower standard of living for everyone. If the total population was smaller, the standard of living could be higher for everyone while remaining sustainable. So the basic problem comes back to overpopulation. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2010, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/18 "2010-10-16T23:02:04Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > The rest of the planet won’t be running out of space. Denmark isn’t running out of space. In 2050 there’ll be about the same number as today. Perhaps slightly less. That’s pretty much the same picture for all the neighbouring countries. Maybe they’ll be running out of space in the Philippines or in India or in Africa, or whereever. Sucks for them, but it’s not my responsibility. So maybe you meant to say: The future for countries engaging in irresponsible and unsustainable population increase? The bigger picture problem isn’t literally running out of space; it’s running out of resources. Toofs mentioned the fossil fuel consumption, overfishing, and habitat destruction problems already; the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is another negative side-effect from global population growth. These problems are inherently global in nature, not local. ---
**Author:** ![Uzi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/91b2a8/32.png) [@Uzi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uzi)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2010, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/19 "2010-10-17T15:05:47Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > The problem is the Western (and particularly American) high-consumption lifestyle. The real problem is that you are not going to get the west to give up their lifestyle, nor stop the rest of the world from wanting it for themselves. What you have figure out is how to give it to them without destroying the planet in the process. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2010, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305/20 "2010-10-17T16:00:35Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > The bigger picture problem isn’t literally running out of space; it’s running out of resources. Toofs mentioned the fossil fuel consumption, overfishing, and habitat destruction problems already; the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is another negative side-effect from global population growth. These problems are inherently global in nature, not local. But that’s another dilemma than the one mentioned in the OP with overfilling hospitals and graveyards, etc. Denmark is probably not going to suffer from lack of fossil fuels, because by 2050 we won’t be using very many of them (there’s a fairly detailed plan to be completely rid of them by 2050), and will likely be one of the world’s largest oil exporter anyway (Greenland) and there are tons of coal in Poland and other nearby regions. Overfishing in Danish waters or waters of neighbouring regions and habitat destruction in Denmark won’t be anymore of a problem in 2050 than what it is today. Probably less so. More land will be taken out of production for intensive agriculture and put to recreational usage and more land will be used to grow plants for biofuels, meaning less will be used to export food. Again, that sucks for nations dependent on importing food, but it’s not our responsible to feed the world – those nations should be able to feed themselves. Denmark won’t be one of the drivers of emitting greenhouse gasses, but Scandinavia will probably one of the few areas benefitting from global warming. They’re already positively giddy on Greenland, that they are now able to grow their own potatoes and vegetables and can have their sheep outside grazing for longer periods. On the other hand the Faroese are very upset that they are not able to eat whale-meat, because the whales are filled with toxic metals which apparently can be traced directly to Chinese coal plants. Anyway, I’m all for that the nations that are growing their population at an irresponsible fast rate stop having so many babies, or that China stop fouling the environment but it’s not something I can do a lot about. What I’m not going to do, is to assume a lot of responsible for it. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manila-today-a-prediction-of-the-future-for-the-world-overpopulation/557305.md?page=2)