# Maps of the future **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 2, 2010, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385 "2010-01-02T09:59:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2010, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/21 "2010-01-03T22:16:51Z")
I see more a reconstitution of Christian values in the face of a disarray in values and fixed direction in the next 100 years to counteract Athelas last statement. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2010, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/22 "2010-01-03T23:49:24Z")
Nations mean less and less all the time. In a century they may be little more than mailing addresses, anyway. Their heyday has only lasted a few centuries as it is; it isn’t like dividing the world by national boundaries is fundamental to humanity. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2010, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/23 "2010-01-03T23:51:35Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I see more a reconstitution of Christian values in the face of a disarray in values and fixed direction in the next 100 years to counteract Athelas last statement. Depends on what you mean by Christian values. If you mean the dogmatism, intolerence, judgementalism, and adherence through fear, which is currently pretty much the hallmark of western (specifically American) Christianity, I think you’re probably not correct. Although I don’t see a precipitous drop in followers of Christiandom over the next hundred years, I do believe the current rate of decline is inexorable, and a lower percentage of Americans will consider themselves Christians by the year 2100 than do today. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/24 "2010-01-04T01:44:37Z")
Thanks for the responses all. Re the outlying islands, that was just an oversight on colouration on my part, I didn’t intent that the Aleutians and whatnot would be independent nations. Re Darfur; my thinking was in creating the overall map was “how long can this nation/area plausibly survive in its current state?” The turmoil in Darfur and East Africa seems an obvious case of an unsustainable situation, the response is of course unclear. The sad truth might be a continuation until everybody on one side is dead, I would hope that the world of 100 years time would intervene. Perhaps a misguided hope, granted. The territory of my Persian Caliphate and the division of Iraq is based on [present distribution of Shia/Sunni Muslims.](http://heavenawaits.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/map-muslim.jpg) The region is of course [no stranger](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War) to denomination-based warfare. I left the United States alone, as I don’t think the success of any secessionist movement is plausible. In the OP map I added Puerto Rico, but that’s it. Interestingly, 100 years ago people were predicting expansions of the United States, predictions which have not come to fruition; "Nicaragua will ask for admission to our Union after the completion of the great canal. Mexico will be next. Europe, seeking more territory to the south of us, will cause many of the South and Central American republics to be voted into the Union by their own people.” [http://www.yorktownhistory.org/homepages/1900\_predictions.htm](http://www.yorktownhistory.org/homepages/1900_predictions.htm) I took the liberty of creating some more maps based on other predictions in the thread. Forgive me if I have misrepresented: [The prediction of Shalmanese](http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/8853/futuremap2.jpg) [The prediction of mswas](http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/5175/futuremap3.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/25 "2010-01-04T02:06:45Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > I do not think the Nation-State as we see it today will even exist. > > The primary mode of social organization will be the super-economic state which will fall out around continents except in Asia and Africa. I think it’s entirely possible that in the future, we would be geopolitically organized around giant megalopolises of tens of millions of people within those larger mega-states. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/26 "2010-01-04T02:08:29Z")
**Mr. Kobayashi** Mostly good though I’d put Central America in with one or the other of the American continents. I’d put Iraq, Syria and Jordan in with Arabia. And Russian territory will reflect Russia’s demographic prospects, whether they turn around demographic decline or not. So some bit of Eastern Russia may default to Turkestan while Siberia will default to China. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/27 "2010-01-04T02:26:24Z")
It’s tricky guessing which continental alliance the various Central American states would align themselves to; while part of the North American continent they’re not part of NAFTA, and have much more in common with many South American nations than they do with the United States or Canada. To respond to **msmith537** ’s ideas regarding ‘mega-states’, I toyed with idea in Europe - the amalgamation of the [Inner six](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_six) into one superstate I called the “European Federation”, which itself is still part of the EU. This incorporates ideas of [the United States of Europe](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Europe), an idea which will may take hold in the more cosmopolitan continental European states but that will be met with disapproval (much as the EU itself is) in other states. The EU itself seems too entrenched to do away with. Oh, and on Oman, consider it yet another oversight on my part. I split Yemen back into north and south based on past and current tensions, although my perception may be inaccurate. Splitting up Russia on [ethnic lines](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/49/USSR_Ethnic_Groups_1974.jpg) is problematic due to the sheer number of them. Russia itself is by now an ancient institution, one that has already survived countless political struggles. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/28 "2010-01-04T02:37:37Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > I think it’s entirely possible that in the future, we would be geopolitically organized around giant megalopolises of tens of millions of people within those larger mega-states. I do too. I see that already occurring with New York, Hong Kong, Shenzen, Dubai, London, Paris, Sao Paolo etc… ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/29 "2010-01-04T02:39:29Z")
> [@Mr.Kobayashi](#): > > It’s tricky guessing which continental alliance the various Central American states would align themselves to; while part of the North American continent they’re not part of NAFTA, and have much more in common with many South American nations than they do with the United States or Canada. > > To respond to **msmith537** ’s ideas regarding ‘mega-states’, I toyed with idea in Europe - the amalgamation of the [Inner six](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_six) into one superstate I called the “European Federation”, which itself is still part of the EU. This incorporates ideas of [the United States of Europe](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Europe), an idea which will may take hold in the more cosmopolitan continental European states but that will be met with disapproval (much as the EU itself is) in other states. The EU itself seems too entrenched to do away with. > > Oh, and on Oman, consider it yet another oversight on my part. I split Yemen back into north and south based on past and current tensions, although my perception may be inaccurate. > > Splitting up Russia on [ethnic lines](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/49/USSR_Ethnic_Groups_1974.jpg) is problematic due to the sheer number of them. Russia itself is by now an ancient institution, one that has already survived countless political struggles. Well I don’t mean on all ethnic lines, I just mean on three fault lines. Russian, Muslim and Chinese. Putin claims things are changing but for a while it looked like Russia’s demographic winter was going to lead to the middle-part of the country being eroded slowly by Muslim demographic increase. Russia has the highest abortion rate in the world and one of the lowest birth rates. Also a pretty high death rate. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/30 "2010-01-04T02:56:14Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Well I don’t mean on all ethnic lines, I just mean on three fault lines. Russian, Muslim and Chinese. Putin claims things are changing but for a while it looked like Russia’s demographic winter was going to lead to the middle-part of the country being eroded slowly by Muslim demographic increase. Russia has the highest abortion rate in the world and one of the lowest birth rates. Also a pretty high death rate. I see. Although I think the fault lines would have to be much more…visible for this to be a possibility. Russians who self-identify as ethnically Chinese number currently only in the [tens of thousands](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_Chinese_in_Russia#Demography_and_distribution), and Russia has been [overtly hostile](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_Chinese_in_Russia#Allegations_of_irredentism) to any talk of irredentism. Likewise, they have no love for Muslim separatists - most of Chechnya is Sunni. Whether Putin’s claim of Russians speaking Chinese, Korean and Japanese comes to pass may depend on what “practical measures” Russia will take. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/31 "2010-01-04T02:59:56Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > I do too. I see that already occurring with New York, Hong Kong, Shenzen, Dubai, London, Paris, Sao Paolo etc… A guy names Richard Florida has written extensively on the impact of these “mega-regions” on the world economy. [Here’s a sample from a WSJ article.](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120796112300309601.html) ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/32 "2010-01-04T03:01:15Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > A guy names Richard Florida has written extensively on the impact of these “mega-regions” on the world economy. [Here’s a sample from a WSJ article.](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120796112300309601.html) Yeah, I’m familiar with his work. He’s got some interesting ideas. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/33 "2010-01-04T03:03:20Z")
> [@Mr.Kobayashi](#): > > I see. Although I think the fault lines would have to be much more…visible for this to be a possibility. Russians who self-identify as ethnically Chinese number currently only in the [tens of thousands](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_Chinese_in_Russia#Demography_and_distribution), and Russia has been [overtly hostile](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_Chinese_in_Russia#Allegations_of_irredentism) to any talk of irredentism. Likewise, they have no love for Muslim separatists - most of Chechnya is Sunni. It’s not going to happen that China is going to split off a Russian state. What’s happening is that the Chinese are going to work in Siberia. They aren’t even necessarily becoming Russian. It’s just a matter of the Chinese have a huge populace, the Russians have a receding populace, and the Chinese are getting more and more mineral concessions in Siberia. It’ll be a ‘facts on the ground’ sort of thing in 100 years. > [@](#): > > Whether Putin’s claim of Russians speaking Chinese, Korean and Japanese comes to pass may depend on what “practical measures” Russia will take. 😕 Putin claimed that ethnic Russians are being born and that demographic decline is being reversed. I don’t know of any claims of Russians speaking other languages. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/34 "2010-01-04T03:07:30Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > It’s not going to happen that China is going to split off a Russian state. What’s happening is that the Chinese are going to work in Siberia. They aren’t even necessarily becoming Russian. It’s just a matter of the Chinese have a huge populace, the Russians have a receding populace, and the Chinese are getting more and more mineral concessions in Siberia. It’ll be a ‘facts on the ground’ sort of thing in 100 years. Ah, right. So Siberia becomes a kind of ‘de facto’ China, even if the lines on the map don’t change. > [@](#): > > 😕 > > Putin claimed that ethnic Russians are being born and that demographic decline is being reversed. I don’t know of any claims of Russians speaking other languages. I was referring to this quote by Bad Vlad: “If we do not take practical steps to advance the Far East soon, after a few decades, the Russian population will be speaking Chinese, Japanese, and Korean.”[38] ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/35 "2010-01-04T03:11:18Z")
> [@Mr.Kobayashi](#): > > Ah, right. So Siberia becomes a kind of ‘de facto’ China, even if the lines on the map don’t change. Right, this is why I emphasized supranational economic cooperation zones. Changing the national maps brings about conflict. If you don’t change the map, but change the economic relationships so that the geographic boundaries are largely irrelevant, then over time the national boundaries cease to be important. Kind of like how in the US, you can cross from New Jersey to Pennsylvania and there really isn’t all that much difference. > [@](#): > > I was referring to this quote by Bad Vlad: > “If we do not take practical steps to advance the Far East soon, after a few decades, the Russian population will be speaking Chinese, Japanese, and Korean.”[38] He’s right, but I am not sure there is much he can do about it. Russian women have to want to have babies, and they don’t. Unless he’s right, and that’s actually turning around, the Russian far east is doomed. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/36 "2010-01-04T03:45:16Z")
Don’t underestimate the power of geography and climate to shape borders and foment conflict. The following linked article identifies several “shatter zones” that have the potential for experiencing much tumult in the coming century: -The Indian subcontinent > [@](#): > > It is defined on its landward sides by the hard geographic borders of the Himalayas to the north, the Burmese jungle to the east, and the somewhat softer border of the Indus River to the west. Indeed, the border going westward comes in three stages: the Indus; the unruly crags and canyons that push upward to the shaved wastes of Central Asia, home to the Pashtun tribes; and, finally, the granite, snow-mantled massifs of the Hindu Kush, transecting Afghanistan itself. Because these geographic impediments are not contiguous with legal borders, and because barely any of India’s neighbors are functional states, the current political organization of the subcontinent should not be taken for granted. -The Arabian peninsula > [@](#): > > The vast tract of land controlled by the Saudi royal family is synonymous with Arabia in the way that India is synonymous with the subcontinent. But while India is heavily populated throughout, Saudi Arabia constitutes a geographically nebulous network of oases separated by massive waterless tracts. Highways and domestic air links are crucial to Saudi Arabia’s cohesion. Though India is built on an idea of democracy and religious pluralism, Saudi Arabia is built on loyalty to an extended family. But while India is virtually surrounded by troubling geography and dysfunctional states, Saudi Arabia’s borders disappear into harmless desert to the north and are shielded by sturdy, well-governed, self-contained sheikhdoms to the east and southeast. > > Where Saudi Arabia is truly vulnerable, and where the shatter zone of Arabia is most acute, is in highly populous Yemen to the south. -The Fertile Crescent > [@](#): > > The countries of this region—Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—are vague geographic expressions that had little meaning before the 20th century. When the official lines on the map are removed, we find a crude finger-painting of Sunni and Shiite clusters that contradict national borders. Inside these borders, the governing authorities of Lebanon and Iraq barely exist. The one in Syria is tyrannical and fundamentally unstable; the one in Jordan is rational but under quiet siege. (Jordan’s main reason for being at all is to act as a buffer for other Arab regimes that fear having a land border with Israel.) Indeed, the Levant is characterized by tired authoritarian regimes and ineffective democracies. > > Of all the geographically illogical states in the Fertile Crescent, none is more so than Iraq… > > … > > But for all the recent focus on Iraq, geography and history tell us that Syria might be at the real heart of future turbulence in the Arab world… > > … > > In addition to its inability to solve the problem of political legitimacy, the Arab world is unable to secure its own environment. The plateau peoples of Turkey will dominate the Arabs in the 21st century because the Turks have water and the Arabs don’t. Indeed, to develop its own desperately poor southeast and thereby suppress Kurdish separatism, Turkey will need to divert increasingly large amounts of the Euphrates River from Syria and Iraq. As the Middle East becomes a realm of parched urban areas, water will grow in value relative to oil. The countries with it will retain the ability—and thus the power—to blackmail those without it. Water will be like nuclear energy, thereby making desalinization and dual-use power facilities primary targets of missile strikes in future wars. Not just in the West Bank, but everywhere there is less room to maneuver. -Persia > [@](#): > > Virtually all of the greater Middle East’s oil and natural gas lies in this region. Just as shipping lanes radiate from the Persian Gulf, pipelines are increasingly radiating from the Caspian region to the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, China, and the Indian Ocean. The only country that straddles both energy-producing areas is Iran, as Geoffrey Kemp and Robert E. Harkavy note in Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East. The Persian Gulf possesses 55 percent of the world’s crude-oil reserves, and Iran dominates the whole gulf, from the Shatt al-Arab on the Iraqi border to the Strait of Hormuz in the southeast—a coastline of 1,317 nautical miles, thanks to its many bays, inlets, coves, and islands that offer plenty of excellent places for hiding tanker-ramming speedboats… > > Of all the shatter zones in the greater Middle East, the Iranian core is unique: The instability Iran will cause will not come from its implosion, but from a strong, internally coherent Iranian nation that explodes outward from a natural geographic platform to shatter the region around it. The security provided to Iran by its own natural boundaries has historically been a potent force for power projection. [http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story\_id=4862](http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4862) So…Iran and possibly Syria will expand, Iraq will fracture, Saudi Arabia will recede before the immense population of Yemen, Egypt may recede, Turkey’s control of drinkable water may allow them to dominate their Arab neighbors, Pakistan and southern Afghanistan may become part of a loosely governed greater India, and climate change could mean the end of Bangladesh. Outside of those areas, I’d wager there’s a good chance that China’s population could migrate its way into the sparsely populated Russian east, weakening Russia’s political control over the region. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/37 "2010-01-04T03:48:14Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > He’s right, but I am not sure there is much he can do about it. Russian women have to want to have babies, and they don’t. Unless he’s right, and that’s actually turning around, the Russian far east is doomed. The thing I keep wondering about in this context: lots of single Russian women one international border away from lots of single Chinese men. One website claimed that there is a demographic surplus of women in Russia. It’ve read elsewhere of a demographic surplus of men in China. I don’t know how true this is. ---
**Author:** ![cmyk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmyk/32/3353_2.png) [@cmyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmyk)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/38 "2010-01-04T03:50:19Z")
Except California will be gone, due to falling away into the ocean during the Great 'Quake of '73. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/39 "2010-01-04T03:52:17Z")
> [@Sunspace](#): > > The thing I keep wondering about in this context: lots of single Russian women one international border away from lots of single Chinese men. > > One website claimed that there is a demographic surplus of women in Russia. It’ve read elsewhere of a demographic surplus of men in China. I don’t know how true this is. Actually I think Russian women HAVE been going for Chinese men. But even still it’s only a subsection of Russian women. Russian women are going for foreign men a lot I hear. And even still, the surplus of Chinese men dwarfs the surplus of Chinese women. And generally it’s not the Chinese men who can afford a foreign bride that are having trouble getting Chinese women. It’s the poor workers that can’t get women. Historically though, men get the short end of the stick in the breeding lottery. Most men do not get the opportunity to breed. ---
**Author:** ![mecaenas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/91b2a8/32.png) [@mecaenas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mecaenas)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385/40 "2010-01-04T04:12:12Z")
Regarding an “Oceania” super economic state, it won’t happen. At most we’ll have Australia plus New Zealand (may be) because we’re already very close, probably as close as 2 countries can ever be although they’re more progressive than us. But the other small island nations have nothing to offer either of us economically, militarily, politically or socially. Don’t forget, Australia is the world’s 14th largest ecomony and our nearest island nations are at the bottom. I see no reason to merge with them. Plus distance-wise, there’s huge gaps between us… don’t forget that Australia alone is about the size of the US mainland, let alone the massive ocean gaps between the rest of the islands. There’s no regional affiliation aside from blindly lumping all countries together on a random assumption that merging is inevitable. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/maps-of-the-future/523385.md?page=3)