# March 15th Primaries (Not-as-Super Tuesday) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 15, 2016, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055 "2016-03-15T12:08:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/181 "2016-03-16T13:41:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It would be a much shorter list, i guarantee you. I guarantee you it would not. For a hardcore conservative Republican, everything Democrats have added to the state apparatus since Calvin Coolidge is distasteful to them, but they have to pretend they actually support most of it to avoid doom. The list of such programs and regulations is nearly endless. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Obama evolved on gay marriage. People who have intellectual growth can and do change their positions, people who can only repeat bumper stickers do not. No, let’s be honest: he didn’t evolve, except in terms of what was a politically tenable position. But there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that! 🆒 > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Wow, you are…something. Thanks! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/182 "2016-03-16T13:41:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The reason I’d heard about it was because there’s a Never Trump movement thinking about mounting a third party challenge to HIM with a mainstream Republican. But now is about as late as they can begin the process and have any chance of success. Maybe Trump could start later with his better resources, but he hasn’t shown much of an inclination to spend any money and getting on the ballot ain’t cheap. From what i’ve seen the #nevertrump stuff is more about not voting for him no matter what, a third party run would be nice but the point is simply not voting for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/183 "2016-03-16T13:55:41Z")
According to the Missouri Secretary of State’s [website](http://enr.sos.mo.gov/EnrNet/), Clinton and Trump have won by tiny margins. You have to click on “Submit” to see the results. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/184 "2016-03-16T14:05:23Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Thanks! 😃 Ah, you misunderstood me. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/185 "2016-03-16T14:10:15Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Ah, you misunderstood me. That can’t be right, because insults aren’t allowed here. Surely, then, you didn’t mean it as an insult? Remember, the moderators are reading this… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/186 "2016-03-16T14:10:25Z")
And once again my morning paper dutifully repeats the error that Illinois and Missouri award their delegates proportionally. Oh really? Then why is Trump getting over 70% of their delegates with about 40% of the votes? Explain me that Houston Chronicle!\* \*I understand wanting to keep things simple but is introducing the phrase “winner take most” to their readers that goddamn complicated? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/187 "2016-03-16T14:32:09Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Raising middle class taxes is something that Democrats have been happy to do for decades, only recently bowing to political reality. > [@](#): > > the Clinton administration, the last time middle class taxes were raised So it’s been at least 15 years, possibly more like 23, since the last time Dems raised taxes on the middle class. Care to be specific about when these tax hikes were, and what they consisted of? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/188 "2016-03-16T14:34:06Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > And once again my morning paper dutifully repeats the error that Illinois and Missouri award their delegates proportionally. Oh really? Then why is Trump getting over 70% of their delegates with about 40% of the votes? Explain me that Houston Chronicle!\* > > \*I understand wanting to keep things simple but is introducing the phrase “winner take most” to their readers that goddamn complicated? It’s bad enough that they cover politics as little else besides a horse race, but then they can’t even cover the freakin’ horse race properly. That’s the point where you have to ask: why do they even bother? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/189 "2016-03-16T14:52:33Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > According to the Missouri Secretary of State’s [website](http://enr.sos.mo.gov/EnrNet/), Clinton and Trump have won by tiny margins. You have to click on “Submit” to see the results. I was hoping they’d have the results by Congressional district, but they don’t. The statewide totals only determine 12 of the 52 GOP delegates. [For Missouri, the Green Papers](http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R) is showing Trump with 37 delegates, Cruz with 5, and 10 undetermined. So I assume that means they think Trump’s won 5 CDs, Cruz has won 1, and they can’t tell yet about the other two. 538 and the Green Papers are both showing Illinois breaking down as 52-9-8 for Trump-Cruz-Kasich. Green Papers is showing NC as 30-27-9 (same order), with 6 to Rubio. 538 has 29-27-9-6, which leaves one delegate unaccounted for. If the Green Papers is right about Missouri, Trump’s closing in on 700 delegates, while Cruz is still just a tad over 400. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/190 "2016-03-16T15:03:53Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > It’s bad enough that they cover politics as little else besides a horse race, but then they can’t even cover the freakin’ horse race properly. I don’t follow football but I read in the newspaper that the Panthers beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl 315 yards to 191. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/191 "2016-03-16T15:09:24Z")
RTFirefly, if you scroll down past the rules the green papers does break down the congressional districts. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/192 "2016-03-16T15:52:34Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > RTFirefly, if you scroll down past the rules the green papers does break down the congressional districts. So they do - thanks for pointing that out! They’re showing 6 CDs for Trump and 2 CDs for Cruz down there, for a 42-10 count for the state. I wonder why they’re showing 2 CDs worth of delegates as ‘(available)’ up top. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/193 "2016-03-16T15:53:00Z")
My typically pro-Sanders facebook feed is very quiet today. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/194 "2016-03-16T16:02:48Z")
So are the comments sections of most political sites Facebook posts. Haven’t seen any copy and paste Bernie spam today ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/195 "2016-03-16T16:04:53Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > That can’t be right, because insults aren’t allowed here. Surely, then, you didn’t mean it as an insult? Remember, the moderators are reading this… 😃 The only insults I’ve seen in this thread were coming from you toward Democratic voters in Michigan and Ohio. “Stumblebums.” “Dipshits.” “Morons.” “Bernheads.” I’m just saying tone it down a notch maybe. These people are on your side. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/196 "2016-03-16T16:12:37Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > So are the comments sections of most political sites Facebook posts. Haven’t seen any copy and paste Bernie spam today This did show up right after I posted this, but since most of the comments point out that they guy seems to be incapable of third grade math, it isn’t going far… > **[AcehGround](https://www.acehground.com)** > > AcehGround.com merupakan Portal Berita Aceh yang menyajikan Berita Terkini mulai dari Berita skala Daerah, Nasional hingga Internasional. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/197 "2016-03-16T16:15:50Z")
> [@yarblek](#): > > **bengangmo** ’s point was to ingore the superdelegates, no? The remaining potential _ **pledged** _, (i.e. non-super) delegate total is 2183. Sanders would have to win about 57.35% to get the the majority of 2026 out of 4051 total pledged delegates right now. Hillary would only need about 46%. Things have changed slightly since last night when I posted those numbers…google has the pledged count at 1,132 to 818 in favor of Hillary. So, not counting supers, Bernie would need 2,383 - 818 = 1,565 delegates. Dividing that by the number of remaining delegates (2,322), he needs 1,565 / 2,322 = approximately 67.4% of the remaining vote. Again, however, you just can’t ‘not count’ the supers. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/198 "2016-03-16T16:21:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Raising middle class taxes is something that Democrats have been happy to do for decades, only recently bowing to political reality. Hillary Clinton opposing middle class tax increases would once again **be walking back her own record in the Clinton administration** , the last time middle class taxes were raised. I do realize that middle class tax increases are not in her agenda, but that’s politics. There is no way she can pay for her own spending without them. > > Free college is in the same category. The country isnt’ ready, so Clinton isn’t ready. > > Wall Street, now that’s an honest difference, because that’s where her family makes their money. Emphasis mine. Hillary didn’t hold any office during the Clinton administration, and equating her future presidency to Bill’s would be a mistake. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/199 "2016-03-16T16:33:45Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > Trump appears to have about 46% of the delegates awarded so far. To get to 1237, he’ll need to pull around 66% of the remaining delegates. Looks tough. I don’t see that. Looking at [the ‘delegate targets’ chart at 538](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/), there are 1012 delegates to be voted on between March 22 and June 7, if I’ve added them up correctly. It shows Trump with 652 delegates so far, but that doesn’t include any delegates from Missouri, where he’ll probably get 42. (He may also get one more from NC, but let’s skip that.) That would put him up to 694. So he needs 543 more delegates to get to 1237. 543/1012 = .53656, so he needs 53.7% of the remaining delegates. And 42 delegates from MO would put Trump 17 ahead of being on track to win per 538’s targets based on state demographics. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055/200 "2016-03-16T16:48:09Z")
Continuing from my previous post, there are 11 WTA states remaining, with 597 delegates. Plus NY and CT are winner-take-most, with 120 delegates. Of the WTA states, I’d bet on Cruz winning AZ, MT, SD, and NE for 150 delegates, and Kasich winning MD’s 38 delegates. That leaves WI, DE, PA, IN, CA, and NJ with 409 delegates. If Trump can win all of these, that puts him at 1103. If he can take 85 of NY/CT’s 120, that takes him up to 1188. Then he just needs 49 delegates from the remaining proportional states. UT has 40, RI has 19, OR has 28, and WA has 44. Can he get 49 out of 131? Probably. To keep Trump from winning 1237 outright, or being within a few unbound delegates of 1237 by the time the dust settles on the morning of June 8, either Cruz or Kasich has to win one or more of those six WTA states I’ve put in Trump’s column: WI, DE, PA, IN, CA, and NJ. Wisconsin’s the first one of these, on April 5, three weeks away. But barring some major change in GOP voters’ attitudes towards Trump, the only question is whether he’ll go into the convention having clinched, or merely having such an overwhelming lead over his rivals that denying him the nomination would be regarded by his followers as outright theft. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/march-15th-primaries-not-as-super-tuesday/749055.md?page=11)